US Session Report: Stocks Slip as ISM Prices Paid Jump to 77.9, 30-Year Yield Holds 24-Year Highs and the Dollar Climbs Against CAD and CHF | 1 October 2026
US Session Report: Stocks Slip as ISM Prices Paid Jump to 77.9, 30-Year Yield Holds 24-Year Highs and the Dollar Climbs Against CAD and CHF
US stocks opened higher on Micron’s blowout results but turned lower after ISM manufacturing missed at 54.5 while prices paid surged to 77.9. The S&P 500 is near 7,624 (-0.4%) and the Dow is down about 0.5%, with the 10-year yield around 5.32% and the 30-year near 5.66%, both at 24-year highs.
USD/CAD trades near 1.4248 and USD/CHF near 0.8310. Gold is near $4,154, WTI near $92.1, Bitcoin near $83,970 and XRP near $1.48. Focus: Fed speakers, Nike earnings and Friday’s payrolls.
Top Stories Moving the Market
Stocks fade early gains as ISM inflation gauge surges
Indexes opened higher on Micron, then slid after the data. The Dow is down about 0.5% near 50,650 and the Nasdaq is roughly flat. The S&P 500 sits about 2.5% below its August record of 7,816.70.
Dollar bid against the loonie on yields and oil-hike risk
USD/CAD trades near 1.4248, up about 0.8% on the week, as wide US-Canada rate spreads weigh on CAD. Traders see roughly 60% odds of a BoC hike on 28 October.
Franc softens after Swiss CPI as US yields lift the dollar
USD/CHF trades near 0.8310, below its recent 16-month high near 0.8380. Swiss CPI rose 1.0% y/y, too mild to move the SNB, while US yields lift the dollar.
Gold holds above $4,150 but stays capped by yields
XAU/USD trades near $4,154 after a seven-week low of $4,110. The 10-year yield near 5.3% and a firm dollar outweigh softer PCE and lower October hike odds.
Oil firm as US-Iran talks stall
WTI is near $92.1 and Brent near $99-$100. Hormuz flows have recovered, but sanctions and talks uncertainty keep a risk premium in prices.
Long bond stays at 24-year highs
The 30-year yield is near 5.66%, its highest since 2002, and the 10-year touched 5.34% before easing to about 5.32%. September was the bond market’s worst quarter in decades.
Bitcoin slips below $84K as ETF inflow streak ends
BTC trades between $82,500 support and $85,000 resistance after $149M of ETF outflows. Citi lifted its base case to $113,000 from $82,000; BTC rose about 43% in Q3.
XRP loses the pivotal $1.50 level
Ripple slipped below $1.50 with muted spot-ETF flows and weak momentum. Cumulative XRP ETF inflows hold near $1.8 billion.
Technical Summary & Trade Ideas
USD/CAD
FX · Dollar firm on yields, overbought flag
USD/CAD holds above its 100-day SMA with rising yields and oil-driven inflation risk supporting the dollar. Technicals flag overbought conditions, so a dip to 1.4200 is possible. A break above 1.4300 targets the weekly high near 1.4400; below 1.4150 the bias fades.
| Last1.4248 |
| Support1.4200 / 1.4150 |
| Resistance1.4300 / 1.4400 |
| BoC next28 Oct |
USD/CHF
FX · Dollar firm, below 16-month high
USD/CHF trades near 0.8310 as the SNB stays dovish and US yields climb. Initial resistance is 0.8320, with the recent high near 0.8380 beyond it. Initial support is 0.8300; a break below exposes 0.8280.
| Last0.8310 |
| Support0.8300 / 0.8280 |
| Resistance0.8320 / 0.8380 |
| Swiss CPI1.0% y/y |
Gold (XAU/USD)
Metals · Capped by Treasury yields
Gold trades below its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day averages, which cluster between about $4,287 and $4,538. Failed attempts at $4,200 keep sellers in control. A break under $4,150 targets the $4,110 low; a close above $4,287 would ease the bearish bias.
| Last$4,154 |
| Support4,150 / 4,110 |
| Resistance4,210 / 4,287 |
| Driver10Y near 5.3% |
Crude Oil (WTI)
Energy · Firm on stalled Iran talks
WTI is back above $90, supported by the stalled US-Iran talks and Hormuz risk, though export recovery and a possible 40M-barrel SPR release cap rallies. Above $94 opens the late-September highs near $96; below $90 targets $88.
| Last$92.13 |
| Support$90 / $88 |
| Resistance$94 / $96 |
| Brent~$99-$100 |
S&P 500
Equities · Fading after ISM
The index opened higher on Micron but reversed as ISM prices paid jumped and yields stayed elevated. It remains below Wednesday’s 7,651.54 close. Losing 7,600 exposes 7,550, while a recovery above 7,700 would revive the August-high retest.
| Last7,624 |
| Dow~50,650 (-0.5%) |
| Support7,600 / 7,550 |
| Resistance7,652 / 7,700 |
US 30-Year Yield
Rates · 24-year highs
The long bond keeps selling off despite softer PCE and Treasury buyback plans. Yields stay above 5.60% with the 10-year at 5.32%. A weak payrolls print could trigger a pullback toward 5.55%; a hot one may extend the move above 5.70%.
| Last5.66% |
| 10-year~5.32% |
| Support5.60 / 5.55 |
| Resistance5.70 / 5.75 |
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Crypto · Range between $82.5K and $85K
BTC is trading under pressure with ETF outflows of $149M ending nine days of inflows, and high yields weigh on risk. A break below $82,500 targets $80,000; a close above $85,000 opens $88,000. Citi’s $113,000 base case is a longer-term view.
| Last$83,970 |
| Range82.5K-85K |
| ETF flow-$149M |
| YTD~-4% |
XRP (XRP/USD)
Crypto · Below pivotal $1.50
XRP extended its correction below $1.50 with weak momentum and muted ETF flows. A reclaim of $1.50 is needed to stabilise; a break of $1.40 exposes $1.35, while a move above $1.60 would flip the structure.
| Last$1.479 |
| Support1.40 / 1.35 |
| Resistance1.50 / 1.60 |
| ETF inflows~$1.8B cum. |
What to Expect from the Next Session
- US payrolls on Friday. The key event for yields and the dollar; a strong print could push the 30-year above 5.70% and USD/CAD toward 1.4400, while a weak one may lift gold above $4,210.
- Fed speakers and CPI/PPI. Comments on October hike odds will test the 10-year near 5.3% and S&P 500 support at 7,600.
- Iran and Hormuz headlines. A deal would pull WTI toward $88; a breakdown would push it past $94 and add to yields.
- Crypto ETF flows. A return of inflows could lift BTC through $85,000 and XRP back above $1.50; further outflows risk $82,500 and $1.40.
What Is Moving the Market
Hot ISM prices
ISM manufacturing slipped to 54.5 (est. 55.0), but prices paid jumped to 77.9 from 71.1 and S&P Global’s final PMI came in at 55.9 versus the 57.0 flash. Input-cost pressure is back in focus.
Yields and the dollar
The 10-year touched 5.34% and the 30-year sits near 5.66%. The dollar index is near 102, pressuring gold, CAD, CHF and crypto.
Fed pause vs hike
Softer core PCE cut October hike odds, but SocGen says a hike stays on the table pending CPI and PPI. Rabobank sees the Fed on hold through 2027.
Oil and Iran
Stalled US-Iran talks and Hormuz risk keep WTI above $90, feeding energy-driven inflation fears.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time | Country | Event | Result / Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today 06:30 GMT | CH | CPI (Sep) | 1.0% y/y; 0.0% m/m, in line |
| Today 08:30 ET | US | Jobless claims (wk to 26 Sep) | 197K vs 200K expected; continuing 1.7M |
| Today 09:45 ET | US | S&P Global Mfg PMI (final) | 55.9 vs 57.0 flash |
| Today 10:00 ET | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 54.5 vs 55.0; prices 77.9, new orders 55.3 |
| Today | US | Challenger job cuts (Sep) | 43,281, down 20% y/y |
| After bell | US | Nike earnings; Fed speakers | Watch tone on hikes |
| Fri 2 Oct | US | Non-farm payrolls (Sep) | Key dollar and yield catalyst |
| 28-29 Oct | US / CA / EU | Fed, BoC and ECB decisions | Policy gap drives USD crosses |
Summary
The US session is lean and cautious: the S&P 500 is near 7,624, the 30-year yield near 5.66%, USD/CAD near 1.4248 and USD/CHF near 0.8310. Gold sits near $4,154, WTI near $92.1, Bitcoin near $83,970 and XRP near $1.48. Watch Fed speakers and Friday’s payrolls.
FAQ
Q:Why are US stocks falling?
A:The ISM prices-paid reading of 77.9 and record-area yields revived inflation worries, and oil rose, outweighing Micron’s strong results.
Q:Why is gold struggling despite softer PCE?
A:Treasury yields near 24-year highs and a firm dollar outweigh lower October hike odds, keeping gold capped below $4,200.
Q:What are the key levels today?
A:USD/CAD 1.4200/1.4300, USD/CHF 0.8300/0.8320, gold $4,150/$4,210, WTI $90/$94, S&P 500 7,600/7,652, US 30Y 5.60%/5.70%, BTC $82,500/$85,000, XRP $1.40/$1.50. These are conditional references, not forecasts.
