Russian Diesel Pledge Drags WTI to 91.90 as Gold Holds 4,190| Technical Analysis – Commodity Report | 13-10-2026
Commodities and Bonds Today | Tuesday 13 October 2026
Russian Diesel Pledge Drags WTI to 91.90 as Gold Holds 4,190
Market Overview
Oil led commodities lower on Tuesday 13 October after President Trump said Russia would supply diesel to world markets and had agreed to an energy ceasefire with Ukraine, which neither side has confirmed. Brent slipped to about $105.6, although Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia kept a floor under crude. The same truce headlines drained the Black Sea premium from grains, leaving wheat near a six-week low. Precious metals steadied instead: gold rose to 4,190.09 as Treasury yields eased from last week’s highs, while a Federal Reserve (Fed) still priced to hike in December limits the rebound. For the desk, energy and grains stay hostage to truce headlines today, and metals follow yields.
Key highlights
- US gas storage: the EIA cut more than 100 Bcf from its end-October estimate, narrowing the storage surplus to about 2%.
- European gas: storage is 72.7% full, and attacks near Hormuz raise the risk to winter LNG cargoes.
- Oil outlook: the EIA sees Brent averaging about $105 in the fourth quarter, with Middle East output still disrupted.
- Gold view: Zaner Metals’ Peter Grant told Reuters gold could retest $4,000 before recovering toward $4,400.
- Platinum supply: the World Platinum Investment Council still expects a 2026 deficit of about 297,000 ounces, the fourth in a row.
- ECB pricing: money markets see the deposit rate rising from 2.50% to about 2.72% by December; the ECB meets on 29 October.
What’s Moving Commodities and Bonds Today
Russian Diesel Pledge Pulls Oil Back From a Four-Week High
Brent settled just under $107 on Monday, its highest close since mid-September, then fell about 1% after Trump said Russia agreed to supply diesel. Tanker attacks near Hormuz keep supply risk alive.
Source: Tradingpedia and HDFC Sky (Oilprice.com data), 13 Oct 2026
Energy Truce Hopes Drain the Black Sea Premium From Wheat
USDA reports US export quotes down $11 a ton on weak demand, while winter wheat planting is 36% complete against a 46% average.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service and Reuters, 13 Oct 2026
Fed December Hike Odds Near 85% Cap the Metals Rebound
CME FedWatch puts the chance of a December hike at 84.7%, while the US 10-year yield eased to about 5.19% after touching its highest level since 2002 last week.
Source: FXStreet, Reuters and Investing.com, 13 Oct 2026
Key Drivers Today
Five readings and events that set direction for commodities and bond yields. All times are GMT.
- Brent crude
- ~$105.6
- Truce talk against Gulf strikes
- Russia–Ukraine energy truce
- Unconfirmed
- Moscow and Kyiv yet to confirm
- China inflation and trade (Sep)
- 1.0% y/y exp.
- Crude and soy imports at 03:00 GMT
- US CPI (Sep)
- +0.6% m/m exp.
- Core +0.2% m/m exp.
- US crude stocks (EIA)
- Weekly
- Gas storage Thu, 14:30 GMT
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked by conviction and valid for today’s session. A 1-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platinum | Short | 1,730 | 1,770 | 1,665 | 1,610 | 1.6 / 3.0 | Medium |
| Natural Gas | Long | 3.06 | 2.96 | 3.30 | 3.45 | 2.4 / 3.9 | Medium |
| Wheat | Short | 698 | 718 | 668 | 645 | 1.5 / 2.7 | Medium |
| US 20-Year Yield | Long | 5.550% | 5.470% | 5.720% | 5.780% | 2.1 / 2.9 | Medium |
| Gold | Short | 4,255 | 4,310 | 4,160 | 4,090 | 1.7 / 3.0 | Low |
| Silver | Long | 59.95 | 58.75 | 62.35 | 63.95 | 2.0 / 3.3 | Low |
| WTI Crude | Long | 90.50 | 88.30 | 94.50 | 98.00 | 1.8 / 3.4 | Low |
| Euro 10-Year Yield | Long | 3.380% | 3.310% | 3.520% | 3.600% | 2.0 / 3.1 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. For yields, Long means the yield rises and bond prices fall. Wheat is quoted in US cents per bushel. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Energy Ceasefire Scenario Analysis
Trump says Russia and Ukraine agreed to stop striking energy sites, but neither side has published terms. The four markets below react most to confirmation or collapse.
Truce confirmed: Moscow and Kyiv sign off on the terms
Lower risk to refineries, pipelines and ports would trim the energy and grain premium and haven demand for gold.
- WTI Crude90.50, then 88.30
- Wheat668, then 645
- Natural Gas3.06, then 2.96
- Gold4,160, then 4,090
Truce falters: fresh strikes on energy sites or Black Sea ports
Renewed attacks would restore the supply premium in crude, grains and European gas and revive haven buying in gold.
- WTI Crude94.50, then 98.00
- Wheat698, then 718
- Natural Gas3.30, then 3.45
- Gold4,255, then 4,310
Gold | XAU/USD, US$/oz
Gold Analysis: Narrowing Triangle Caps Rebounds Below the 4,255 Resistance
4,190.085 +18.715 (+0.45%) day Day range 4,150.820–4,200.510
Outlook: Bias is neutral to bearish while gold stays below the 4,261 mid average. The metal added 0.45% to 4,190.085 as yields eased, but a dollar near its highs and Fed hike pricing keep rebounds shallow.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 4,090
- Support 1
- 4,160
- Resistance 1
- 4,255
- Resistance 2
- 4,310
- Price is squeezed between a falling line from the late-January high near 5,600 and a rising line from the late-June low near 3,920.
- The 4,220.578, 4,260.965 and 4,333.097 averages sit above price in a bearish stack, and RSI at 45.64 holds above its 40.93 signal but under 50.
Setup: Short at 4,255, stop 4,310, targets 4,160 and 4,090. Reward:risk 1.7 / 3.0, low conviction.
Silver | XAG/USD, US$/oz
Silver Analysis: Channel Floor at 59.95 Holds as Price Hugs the 60 Handle
60.6000 +0.3035 (+0.50%) day Day range 59.5840–60.7330
Outlook: Bias is neutral while silver holds the 59.95 channel floor, with rebounds capped by converging averages. Silver rose 0.50% to 60.6000, tracking gold with a ratio near 69.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 58.75
- Support 1
- 59.95
- Resistance 1
- 62.35
- Resistance 2
- 63.95
- A falling channel from the late-August high near 71 contains price; the early-October low near 58 held the lower line.
- The 62.3448, 63.9612 and 64.1913 averages converge overhead, and RSI at 43.51 sits above its 41.85 signal.
Setup: Long at 59.95, stop 58.75, targets 62.35 and 63.95. Reward:risk 2.0 / 3.3, low conviction.
Platinum | XPT/USD, US$/oz
Platinum Analysis: Retest of the Broken Channel Meets the 1,730 Average Cluster
1,705.50 +15.80 (+0.94%) day Day range 1,680.32–1,707.60
Outlook: Bias is bearish below the 1,730 average cluster. Platinum rose 0.94% to 1,705.50 in a rebound from the early-October low, but only back to the underside of the broken channel.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1,610
- Support 1
- 1,665
- Resistance 1
- 1,730
- Resistance 2
- 1,770
- Price broke below a rising channel from the mid-July low near 1,560 in early October, set a low near 1,610 and has rebounded to the lower line near 1,720.
- The 1,729.72 and 1,732.35 averages form a tight cluster above price with the 1,764.36 average overhead; RSI at 46.60 is rising from the October low.
Setup: Short at 1,730, stop 1,770, targets 1,665 and 1,610. Reward:risk 1.6 / 3.0, medium conviction.
Natural Gas | US$/MMBtu
Natural Gas Analysis: Rising Channel Holds Above 3.06 as Mild Weather Models Cool the Rally
3.143 −0.024 (−0.76%) day Day range 3.142–3.191
Outlook: Bias is bullish while natural gas holds the 3.06 fast average and channel floor. Prices eased to 3.143 from Friday’s 3.200 close as mild weather models offset a tighter storage outlook.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2.96
- Support 1
- 3.06
- Resistance 1
- 3.30
- Resistance 2
- 3.45
- A rising channel from the early-August low near 2.75 guides price; the 24 September spike high near 3.32 caps rallies.
- The 3.062, 2.988 and 2.913 averages rise beneath price, while RSI at 56.65 has slipped below its 58.67 signal.
Setup: Long at 3.06, stop 2.96, targets 3.30 and 3.45. Reward:risk 2.4 / 3.9, medium conviction.
WTI Crude | US$/bbl
WTI Crude Analysis: Triangle Apex Near 92 Sets Up a Break Between 90.50 and 94.50
91.90 −1.27 (−1.36%) day Day range 91.82–93.49
Outlook: Bias is neutral with a bullish tilt while WTI holds the 89.29 mid average. WTI slid 1.36% to 91.90 on the diesel pledge, yet Gulf supply risk keeps declines above the triangle floor.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 88.30
- Support 1
- 90.50
- Resistance 1
- 94.50
- Resistance 2
- 98.00
- Lower highs since the mid-September peak near 106 and higher lows since the 1 July low near 67 have narrowed price into a symmetrical triangle.
- The 92.65 fast average sits just above price, with the 89.29 and 85.61 averages rising beneath; RSI at 50.48 is neutral.
Setup: Long at 90.50, stop 88.30, targets 94.50 and 98.00. Reward:risk 1.8 / 3.4, low conviction.
Wheat | US¢/bu
Wheat Analysis: Broken Channel Turns 698 Into Resistance as the Black Sea Premium Fades
676.0 −5.2 (−0.76%) day Day range 674.7–681.2
Outlook: Bias is bearish below the 703.0 and 706.9 averages. Wheat fell 0.76% to 676.0 on Tuesday as truce talk eased the risk to Black Sea shipping.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 645
- Support 1
- 668
- Resistance 1
- 698
- Resistance 2
- 718
- The early-October break of the channel built from the late-June low near 575 ended a rally that peaked near 795 in September, a 3.5-year high.
- The 703.0 and 706.9 averages cap rebounds, and the 668.4 long average is the last support before the August zone near 645; RSI at 38.83 sits below its 42.80 signal.
Setup: Short at 698, stop 718, targets 668 and 645. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.7, medium conviction.
US 20-Year Yield | US20Y, %
US 20-Year Yield Analysis: Pullback From 5.78% Heads for the 5.55% Fast Average
5.604% −0.043 (−0.76%) day Day range 5.588%–5.643%
Outlook: Bias is bullish for yields while the 20-year holds the 5.55% fast average, though momentum has cooled. The yield eased about 4 basis points to 5.604% after the Columbus Day closure.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 5.470%
- Support 1
- 5.550%
- Resistance 1
- 5.720%
- Resistance 2
- 5.780%
- A rising channel from the late-June low near 4.85% contains the yield; the early-October peak near 5.78% touched the upper line before the pullback.
- The 5.549%, 5.369% and 5.204% averages rise beneath the yield, and RSI at 59.39 has dropped well below its 70.59 signal.
Setup: Long at 5.550%, stop 5.470%, targets 5.720% and 5.780%. Reward:risk 2.1 / 2.9, medium conviction.
Euro 10-Year Yield | EU10Y, %
Euro 10-Year Yield Analysis: Slip Below the Fast Average Brings the 3.38% Channel Floor Into View
3.435% −0.033 (−0.94%) day Day range 3.427%–3.478%
Outlook: Bias is neutral to bullish for yields while the euro 10-year holds the 3.38% mid average and channel floor. The yield fell 3 basis points to 3.435%, tracking the German 10-year.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 3.310%
- Support 1
- 3.380%
- Resistance 1
- 3.520%
- Resistance 2
- 3.600%
- The yield has climbed inside a channel since its late-June low near 2.85%, and the late-September peak near 3.64% was a 17-year high.
- The yield sits below the 3.516% fast average and above the 3.382% and 3.207% averages, with RSI at 45.70 well below its 57.49 signal.
Setup: Long at 3.380%, stop 3.310%, targets 3.520% and 3.600%. Reward:risk 2.0 / 3.1, low conviction.
Conclusion
An unconfirmed truce and Russian diesel supply weigh on oil and wheat, while Gulf strikes limit the selling and metals rebound only as far as yields allow. The desk’s stronger ideas sell rallies in platinum and wheat and buy pullbacks in natural gas and the US 20-year yield, with gold, silver, WTI and the euro 10-year kept small. Wednesday’s US CPI at 12:30 GMT is the larger gap risk for metals and yields, so reduce size before it.
Trade gold, silver, crude oil, natural gas, wheat and other commodities with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are oil prices falling today?
Russia’s offer to supply diesel and talk of a Russia–Ukraine energy truce eased fears of fuel shortages, which pulled crude lower. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and tanker risk near Hormuz keep a premium in prices, limiting the decline.
How does the Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire affect wheat?
Russia and Ukraine ship a large share of world wheat exports through Black Sea ports. Fewer strikes would lower shipping and insurance risk and remove part of the premium; a breakdown would restore it quickly.
Why do bond yields matter for gold and silver?
Gold and silver pay no interest, so higher Treasury yields raise the cost of holding them and tend to weigh on prices. A firmer dollar adds pressure because both metals are priced in dollars.
What is moving natural gas prices this week?
Weather models for late October look mild, which trims heating demand, but a tighter US storage outlook and winter LNG risk in Europe support prices. The Thursday storage report is the next test.
