Nasdaq 100 Falls to 30,256 After Hot US CPI, Dow Holds 51,661 and FTSE 100 Rises to 10,690 | Technical Analysis – Index Report | 14-10-2026
Daily Indices Report | Wednesday 14 October 2026
Nasdaq 100 Falls to 30,256 After Hot US CPI, Dow Holds 51,661 and FTSE 100 Rises to 10,690
Market Overview
Equities are split on Wednesday 14 October after September US CPI beat forecasts. Headline inflation rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected, and core rose 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y against 2.5%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.02% to 30,256.28 as the 10-year yield jumped to about 5.3%, while the Dow Jones was flat at 51,661.16 (−0.03%) on healthcare strength. DAX 40 rose 0.25% to 25,323.34 and the FTSE 100 gained 0.37% to 10,689.57, helped by ASML’s upbeat forecast and oil above $95. The Hang Seng closed 0.13% lower at 24,314.17.
The backdrop is hawkish. Odds of a Fed hike on 28 October roughly doubled to about 45% to 50% from about 20%, traders see better than 95% odds of at least one hike by year-end, and the policy rate stands at 3.75% to 4.00%. Gasoline rose 9.1% in September, WTI trades above $95 and Brent above $105 on Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks, and Bank of America’s Q3 profit fell 17% on a $1.2 billion fine. In Hong Kong, tech stocks rallied while AI hardware, banks and property fell.
Our positioning is mixed. We are bearish on the Nasdaq 100 from 30,540, the Dow from 52,200 and the Hang Seng from 24,470, and bullish on the FTSE 100 from 10,630 and the DAX 40 from 25,300.
Key highlights
- Hang Seng at 24,314.17 (−0.13%) reversed from 24,524.63 at the 24,471.77 fast average and sits under all three averages in a falling channel; RSI is 44.50.
- FTSE 100 at 10,689.57 (+0.37%) retests a broken rising line from below, above the 10,615.45 and 10,626.94 averages; RSI is 54.30.
- DAX 40 at 25,323.34 (+0.25%) sits between the 25,298.34 and 25,417.39 averages; a close above 25,420 opens 25,750.
- Dow Jones at 51,661.16 (−0.03%) is mid-triangle between lines near 52,450 and 50,700; RSI is 47.98.
- Nasdaq 100 at 30,256.28 (−1.02%) sits on the rising channel floor near 30,150 under the 30,537.90 fast average; RSI is 49.04 against a 61.13 signal.
- US PPI is due Thursday 15 October at 12:30 GMT; a hot print would add to October hike bets, while a soft one would ease pressure on tech.
Trade Setups for Today
Five setups for Wednesday 14 October 2026, ordered by time zone from Asia to the US. Each carries a defined invalidation level: a 1-hour close beyond the stop negates the idea. Setups are valid for today’s session only.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | Short | 24,470 | 24,850 | 23,950 | 23,650 | 1.4 / 2.2 | Medium |
| FTSE 100 | Long | 10,630 | 10,520 | 10,830 | 10,980 | 1.8 / 3.2 | Medium |
| DAX 40 | Long | 25,300 | 25,050 | 25,750 | 26,150 | 1.8 / 3.4 | Low |
| Dow Jones | Short | 52,200 | 52,650 | 51,000 | 50,700 | 2.7 / 3.3 | Low |
| Nasdaq 100 | Short | 30,540 | 30,850 | 29,870 | 29,600 | 2.2 / 3.0 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to target 1 and target 2, divided by the distance from entry to the stop. The Nasdaq 100 and Dow shorts respond to the same yield and Fed drivers, and the DAX and FTSE longs share an oil and risk-appetite link, so treat each pair as one position. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Key Drivers Today
Ten data points and events set direction for indices today and this week. All times are GMT.
- US CPI (Sep)
- +0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y
- Released 12:30 GMT
- Expected 3.6% y/y; core +0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y vs 2.5%
- Fed hike odds
- Oct ~45–50%
- Live
- Up from about 20% pre-CPI; 95%+ for a hike by year-end
- US yields
- 10Y ~5.30%
- Live
- 2Y near 4.92–4.95%; both up 10 to 16 bp on the CPI
- Oil and Hormuz
- WTI >$95
- Live
- Brent above $105; shipping attacks near Hormuz
- AI and chips
- ASML lifts Europe
- Wed 14 Oct
- Upbeat forecast helps DAX; AI hardware sells off in Hong Kong
- US bank earnings
- BofA, MS, BlackRock
- Wed 14 Oct
- BofA Q3 profit down 17% on a $1.2 billion fine
- Fed Beige Book
- Regional conditions
- Wed 14 Oct, 18:00 GMT
- Pricing and labour detail ahead of the Fed meeting
- US PPI
- Producer prices
- Thu 15 Oct, 12:30 GMT
- Tests whether energy costs are feeding pipeline inflation
- Hong Kong holiday
- HKEX closed
- Mon 19 Oct
- Double Ninth Festival; thin positioning into the weekend
- Fed decision
- Rate decision
- Tue 27 – Wed 28 Oct
- Rate at 3.75–4.00%; hike risk repriced after CPI
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Yields and Oil Scenario Analysis
US CPI is already out, so the next swing factors are the 10-year yield, oil and Thursday’s PPI. Select a scenario to view the expected path for each index; the thresholds are our own working levels.
Hawkish: 10-year yield above 5.35%, October hike odds above 60% or Brent above $110
Hot-CPI follow-through would hit long-duration tech first, drag the Dow toward the lower triangle line, and push the DAX and Hang Seng under their supports. The FTSE 100 would hold up better on energy.
- Hang Seng23,950, then 23,650
- FTSE 10010,630, then 10,520
- DAX 4025,300, then 25,050
- Dow Jones51,000, then 50,700
- Nasdaq 10029,870, then 29,600
Relief: 10-year yield below 5.2%, soft PPI or lower oil
Easing yields would send the Nasdaq 100 and Dow back to the averages where the shorts enter, and lift the DAX and FTSE toward their targets.
- Hang Seng24,470, then 24,850
- FTSE 10010,830, then 10,980
- DAX 4025,750, then 26,150
- Dow Jones52,200, then 52,650
- Nasdaq 10030,540, then 30,850
Hang Seng (HK50) | HSI
Hang Seng Analysis: Index Closes at 24,314 Under All Three Averages in a Falling Channel as AI Hardware and Banks Drag
24,314.17 −31.05 (−0.13%) vs previous close Day range 24,115.00–24,524.63
Outlook: Bias is bearish below 24,470. The Hang Seng closed at 24,314.17 on 14 October, down 0.13% from 24,345.22, after a 24,524.63 high reversed. The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 0.91% and Meituan jumped over 6%, but AI hardware, banks and property stocks fell and mainland shares sold off (Shanghai Composite −0.89%). The preferred approach is a rally short at 24,470 with a stop at 24,850 and targets at 23,950 and 23,650, sized for medium conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 23,650
- Support 1
- 23,950
- Resistance 1
- 24,470
- Resistance 2
- 24,850
Daily chart structure
- Price trades inside a falling channel from the late-July high near 26,250; the lower line now runs near 23,550 and the upper line near 25,200. The 52-week range spans 22,518 to 28,056, and the early-October low near 23,700 is the recent base.
- All three averages sit above price: the fast average at 24,471.77, the long at 24,828.31 and the mid at 25,049.50. Today’s high of 24,524.63 reversed at the fast average, on turnover of HK$193.5 billion.
- RSI reads 44.50, above its signal line at 39.48 but under 50, a stabilising but weak reading. Gold stocks and AI hardware names fell, and the Hong Kong market is closed on Monday 19 October for the Double Ninth Festival, which may thin positioning into the weekend.
Hang Seng trade setup
Short Medium conviction- Entry
- 24,470
- Stop loss
- 24,850
- Target 1
- 23,950
- Target 2
- 23,650
Risk 380 points, or 1.55%. Reward:risk 1.4 to target 1, 2.2 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a rally into the 24,470 area, at the 24,471.77 fast average that rejected today’s high. The stop is above the 24,828.31 long average at 24,850, and the targets are the 23,950 area near the early-October low and the 23,650 zone just above the channel floor.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 24,850. A stimulus headline from Beijing, a strong rebound in the Hang Seng Tech Index, or a softer US dollar and yield backdrop is the main risk.
FTSE 100 (UK100) | UKX
FTSE 100 Analysis: Index Climbs to 10,690 and Retests a Broken Trendline as Oil Above $95 Supports the Energy-Heavy Blue Chips
10,689.57 +39.23 (+0.37%) vs previous close Day range 10,641.22–10,702.75
Outlook: Bias is bullish above the 10,616–10,627 average zone. The FTSE 100 traded at 10,689.57 on 14 October, up 0.37% after closing 13 October at 10,650.33, with energy and commodity heavyweights helped by WTI above $95 and Brent above $105. The preferred approach is a pullback long at 10,630 with a stop at 10,520 and targets at 10,830 and 10,980, sized for medium conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 10,520
- Support 1
- 10,630
- Resistance 1
- 10,830
- Resistance 2
- 10,980
Daily chart structure
- Price broke below the rising line from the March low near 9,690 and the lower edge of a triangle in late September, and is now retesting the line near 10,700 from below; the falling upper line from the August high near 10,980 runs near 10,830.
- The fast and long averages at 10,615.45 and 10,626.94 sit just below price as support, and the mid average at 10,716.73 caps; today’s high of 10,702.75 stalled beneath it. The early-October low near 10,360 marks the sell-off base.
- RSI reads 54.30, above its signal line at 42.59 and back over 50 for the first time since mid-September. The index’s energy weighting makes it the relative winner while oil stays elevated, but UK 10-year gilt yields near 5% are a ceiling on valuations.
FTSE 100 trade setup
Long Medium conviction- Entry
- 10,630
- Stop loss
- 10,520
- Target 1
- 10,830
- Target 2
- 10,980
Risk 110 points, or 1.03%. Reward:risk 1.8 to target 1, 3.2 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a pullback into the 10,630 area, at the 10,626.94 long and 10,615.45 fast averages. The stop is below the early-October swing support at 10,520, and the targets are the 10,830 falling line and the 10,980 August high.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 10,520. A sudden drop in oil on Middle East de-escalation, a rise in gilt yields, or a US-led equity sell-off is the main risk.
DAX 40 (GER40) | DAX
DAX 40 Analysis: Index Rises to 25,323 on ASML-Led Chip Strength but Stalls at the 25,417 Average Ahead of Wall Street’s CPI Reaction
25,323.34 +63.44 (+0.25%) vs previous close Day range 25,279.23–25,448.73
Outlook: Bias is neutral, bullish above 25,420. The DAX 40 traded at 25,323.34 on 14 October, up 0.25% after finishing 13 October at 25,259.90, as ASML’s strong forecast lifted European semiconductors and Infineon rose about 3%, while oil near $95 for WTI and a 5.3% US 10-year yield capped the rally. The preferred approach is a pullback long at 25,300 with a stop at 25,050 and targets at 25,750 and 26,150, sized for low conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 25,050
- Support 1
- 25,300
- Resistance 1
- 25,750
- Resistance 2
- 26,150
Daily chart structure
- Price trades inside a rising channel from the March low near 21,850; the lower line now runs near 24,500, and the August high near 26,600 is the last peak. The early-October low near 24,880 held well above the line.
- Price sits between the fast average at 25,298.34 and the long average at 25,417.39, under the mid average at 25,750.10; today’s high of 25,448.73 tested the long average and a close above it would open 25,750.
- RSI reads 48.63, above its signal line at 43.13 and rising from the early-October low. German 10-year yields and Brent above $105 on Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks remain the headwinds for a cyclical, export-heavy index.
DAX 40 trade setup
Long Low conviction- Entry
- 25,300
- Stop loss
- 25,050
- Target 1
- 25,750
- Target 2
- 26,150
Risk 250 points, or 0.99%. Reward:risk 1.8 to target 1, 3.4 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a pullback into the 25,300 area, at the 25,298.34 fast average and today’s 25,279.23 low. The stop is below the 25,000 round level and the early-October lows, at 25,050, and the targets are the 25,750.10 mid average and the 26,150 area below the August peak.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 25,050. A sharp Wall Street sell-off after the CPI reaction, a further jump in oil, or a surge in bund yields is the main risk.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) | DJI
Dow Jones Analysis: Index Holds 51,661 Inside a Triangle as Healthcare Offsets Hot CPI and Weak Bank Earnings
51,661.16 −14.00 (−0.03%) vs previous close Day range 51,561.16–51,875.19
Outlook: Bias is range-bound inside the triangle, bearish below 52,200. The Dow traded at 51,661.16 on 14 October, almost unchanged (−0.03%) after opening near 51,585 and rising earlier in the session, as healthcare shares offset the CPI-driven rise in yields and a 17% fall in Bank of America’s third-quarter profit. The preferred approach is a rally short at 52,200 with a stop at 52,650 and targets at 51,000 and 50,700, sized for low conviction because the index is outperforming the Nasdaq.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 50,700
- Support 1
- 51,000
- Resistance 1
- 52,200
- Resistance 2
- 52,650
Daily chart structure
- Price trades inside a symmetrical triangle: a falling line from the 5 August high near 54,750 now runs near 52,450, and a rising line from the late-March low near 45,000 now runs near 50,700. The early-October low near 50,800 held that line.
- The averages at 52,547.36 and 52,198.75 sit above price and cap rebounds, while the fast average at 51,502.15 sits just below as first support; today’s high of 51,875.19 faded.
- RSI reads 47.98, above its signal line at 42.52 but under 50. US inflation of 3.7% and a 10-year yield near 5.3% pressure valuations, yet healthcare strength has kept the Dow ahead of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq today.
Dow Jones trade setup
Short Low conviction- Entry
- 52,200
- Stop loss
- 52,650
- Target 1
- 51,000
- Target 2
- 50,700
Risk 450 points, or 0.86%. Reward:risk 2.7 to target 1, 3.3 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a rally into the 52,200 area, at the 52,198.75 average and under the falling triangle line near 52,450. The stop is above that line and the 52,547.36 average at 52,650, and the targets are the 51,000 round level near the early-October lows and the rising line near 50,700.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 52,650, which would break the triangle to the upside. Soft PPI, a fall in yields, or continued rotation into healthcare and banks is the main risk.
Nasdaq 100 (US100) | NDX
Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Index Drops 1% to 30,256 on the Rising Channel Floor as Hot US CPI Lifts the 10-Year Yield Above 5.3%
30,256.28 −313.20 (−1.02%) vs previous close Day range 30,239.63–30,436.60
Outlook: Bias is bearish below the 30,540 fast average. Nasdaq 100 traded at 30,256.28 on 14 October, down 1.02% and about 3.5% under the early-October high near 31,300, after September US CPI came in at 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected and the 10-year yield jumped to about 5.3%. The preferred approach is a rally short at 30,540 with a stop at 30,850 and targets at 29,870 and 29,600, sized for medium conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 29,600
- Support 1
- 29,870
- Resistance 1
- 30,540
- Resistance 2
- 30,850
Daily chart structure
- Price trades inside a rising channel from the 28 July low near 27,200; the early-October high near 31,300 stalled well below the upper line, and the lower line now runs near 30,150, directly under price. A 1-hour close below it opens the averages.
- The fast average at 30,537.90 sits above price and capped today’s high of 30,436.60; the mid and long averages at 29,868.87 and 29,627.82 are rising below and mark the next supports.
- RSI reads 49.04, below its signal line at 61.13 and rolling over from the October peak. The Nasdaq Composite was down about 0.9% after the CPI release as yields rose, and chip names were mixed even with ASML’s upbeat forecast lifting European semiconductors.
Nasdaq 100 trade setup
Short Medium conviction- Entry
- 30,540
- Stop loss
- 30,850
- Target 1
- 29,870
- Target 2
- 29,600
Risk 310 points, or 1.01%. Reward:risk 2.2 to target 1, 3.0 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a rally into the 30,540 area, at the 30,537.90 fast average that rejected today’s bounce. The stop is above the 30,436.60 session high and the failed-rally zone at 30,850, and the targets are the 29,870 mid average and the 29,600 area at the long average and the old channel base.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 30,850. Softer US PPI on 15 October, a drop in the 10-year yield below 5.2%, or a sharp fall in oil that trims Fed hike odds is the main risk.
Conclusion
Hot CPI has repriced the Fed, and yields near 5.3% favour the shorts in the Nasdaq 100 from 30,540, the Dow from 52,200 and the Hang Seng from 24,470, with downside to 29,870, 51,000 and 23,950. Europe offers the counter-view: the FTSE 100 from 10,630 and the DAX 40 from 25,300 can reach 10,830 and 25,750 if oil and chips stay supportive. The Nasdaq 100, Hang Seng and FTSE 100 ideas carry medium conviction; the Dow and DAX ideas carry low conviction.
Treat every level as conditional and wait for 1-hour closes beyond a stop before judging an idea invalid. Size positions smaller into Thursday’s PPI and the Fed’s 28 October decision, because oil near $95 and Fed speakers can gap indices quickly. Our approach is to trade the levels, not the headlines.
Trade the Hang Seng, FTSE 100, DAX 40, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Hang Seng outlook for 14 October 2026?
Bias is bearish below 24,470. The Hang Seng closed at 24,314.17 in a falling channel, under the 24,471.77, 24,828.31 and 25,049.50 averages, with RSI at 44.50. The setup is a medium-conviction rally short at 24,470 with a stop at 24,850 and targets at 23,950 and 23,650.
What is the FTSE 100 outlook today?
Bias is bullish above 10,616–10,627. The FTSE is 10,689.57 retesting a broken rising line, above its 10,615.45 and 10,626.94 averages, with RSI at 54.30. The setup is a medium-conviction pullback long at 10,630 with a stop at 10,520 and targets at 10,830 and 10,980.
What is the DAX 40 outlook for 14 October 2026?
Bias is neutral, bullish above 25,420. The DAX is 25,323.34 between its 25,298.34 and 25,417.39 averages, with RSI at 48.63. The setup is a low-conviction pullback long at 25,300 with a stop at 25,050 and targets at 25,750 and 26,150.
What is the Dow Jones outlook today?
Bias is range-bound, bearish below 52,200. The Dow is 51,661.16 inside a symmetrical triangle, under the 52,547.36 and 52,198.75 averages, with RSI at 47.98. The setup is a low-conviction rally short at 52,200 with a stop at 52,650 and targets at 51,000 and 50,700.
What is the Nasdaq 100 outlook for 14 October 2026?
Bias is bearish below 30,540. The index is 30,256.28 on the lower line of a rising channel, with RSI at 49.04 below its 61.13 signal line. The setup is a medium-conviction rally short at 30,540 with a stop at 30,850 and targets at 29,870 and 29,600.
How did US CPI affect stocks on 14 October 2026?
September CPI rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected, and core rose 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y against 2.5%. The 10-year yield jumped to about 5.3%, odds of an October Fed hike roughly doubled to around 45% to 50%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell about 1% while the Dow was flat.
When is the next Fed decision?
The Fed meets on 27 to 28 October, with the policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00%. US PPI follows on Thursday 15 October at 12:30 GMT.
