S&P 500 Slips to 7,718 and Nasdaq 100 Tests 29,950 as Hot CPI Hits Tech, With US Jobless Claims Due at 12:30 GMT | Technical Analysis – Index Report | 15-10-2026
Daily Index Report | Thursday 15 October 2026
S&P 500 Slips to 7,718 and Nasdaq 100 Tests 29,950 as Hot CPI Hits Tech, With US Jobless Claims Due at 12:30 GMT
Market Overview
Global equities open Thursday 15 October split in two. Wall Street and Asia are absorbing a hot September CPI, while Europe is holding up. US headline inflation rose to 3.7% y/y from 3.4%, and core came in at 2.6% y/y and +0.3% m/m against 0.2% expected, with gasoline supplying more than half of the monthly rise. The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.02% to 29,950.82 and the S&P 500 fell 1.11% to 7,718.94, its biggest one-day drop since 29 July, as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 4.3% for a sixth straight decline. The Dow was almost flat, so the damage sits in AI and chip names rather than the broad market.
The sell-off carried into Asia. The Nikkei dropped about 4.8%, and the Hang Seng closed at 24,062.72 (−1.03%) with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.72%. Europe held steadier at 08:50 GMT: the FTSE 100 traded at 10,783.85 (+0.55%) after UK GDP grew 0.1% in August against a forecast 0.1% fall, and the CAC 40 traded at 7,903.58 (+0.39%), though it remains below all three of its moving averages. Rates and commodities frame the move: the US 10-year yield is near 5.09%, Brent is near $104 on Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks, and spot gold is near $4,143.
The next test is US initial jobless claims at 12:30 GMT, due with September PPI and retail sales. Consensus is 200K against 197K prior, and with CME FedWatch pricing a 37% chance of an October hike (up from 22% before CPI), a very low print adds to hike pressure on tech while a clear rise would ease yields. Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 GMT on Friday, ahead of the 27–28 October FOMC. Our bias is bearish for the Hang Seng from 24,400 and the CAC 40 from 7,945, and bullish on pullbacks for the FTSE 100 from 10,715, the Nasdaq 100 from 29,870 and the S&P 500 from 7,705.
Key highlights
- US CPI shock: core +0.3% m/m beat the 0.2% forecast, and October Fed hike odds rose to 37% from 22%.
- Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 sit on their rising channel floors near 29,860 and 7,707; closes below 29,550 and 7,640 would break them.
- US jobless claims at 12:30 GMT (200K expected): claims at or below 195K add to hike pressure on tech, while 205K or more eases yields.
- FTSE 100 has reclaimed all three averages on the UK GDP beat, while the CAC 40 stalls under its 7,945 fast average.
- Hang Seng closed at 24,062.72 near its falling channel floor, with technology and chip shares the main drag.
Trade Setups for Today
Five setups for Thursday 15 October 2026, ranked by conviction. Each carries a defined invalidation level: a 1-hour close beyond the stop negates the idea. Setups are valid for today’s session only.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | Short | 24,400 | 24,580 | 23,950 | 23,700 | 2.5 / 3.9 | Medium |
| FTSE 100 | Long | 10,715 | 10,595 | 10,850 | 10,990 | 1.1 / 2.3 | Low |
| CAC 40 | Short | 7,945 | 8,030 | 7,800 | 7,690 | 1.7 / 3.0 | Medium |
| Nasdaq 100 | Long | 29,870 | 29,550 | 30,520 | 31,000 | 2.0 / 3.5 | Low |
| S&P 500 | Long | 7,705 | 7,640 | 7,790 | 7,840 | 1.3 / 2.1 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to target 1 and target 2, divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Key Drivers Today
Five data points and events set direction for global indices today and into Friday. All times are GMT.
- US jobless claims
- 200K exp.
- Prior 197K; continuing 1.709M exp.
- US PPI and retail sales
- Sep data
- Same release time as claims
- CME FedWatch (Oct hike)
- ~37%
- Up from 22% before CPI
- Oil and Hormuz
- Brent ~104
- Shipping attacks at war-high
- Warsh and Bailey speeches
- Fri 16 Oct
- FOMC on 27–28 October
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
US Jobless Claims Scenario Analysis
US initial jobless claims for the week ending 10 October are due Thursday 15 October at 12:30 GMT. Consensus is 200K against 197K prior, with continuing claims near 1.709M against 1.716M. A print between 196K and 204K is in line and should leave the levels below unchanged. Select a scenario to view the expected path for each index, with levels. The Hang Seng is closed at the release and reacts at Friday’s open.
Low claims: at or below 195K
Claims well under the 200K consensus signal a tight labour market, which supports the Fed hike case after hot CPI, lifts yields and the dollar and pressures rate-sensitive tech. Hong Kong would feel it at Friday’s open.
- Hang Seng23,950, then 23,700
- FTSE 10010,715, then 10,630
- CAC 407,800, then 7,690
- Nasdaq 10029,860, then 29,625
- S&P 5007,705, then 7,640
High claims: at or above 205K
A clear rise from 197K would ease hike bets and yields and let oversold equity and tech names rebound; a very large jump (above about 220K) could flip the move into a growth scare, so size smaller and wait for the 1-hour close.
- Hang Seng24,440, then 24,810
- FTSE 10010,850, then 10,990
- CAC 407,945, then 8,215
- Nasdaq 10030,520, then 31,000
- S&P 5007,790, then 7,840
Hong Kong Index | Hang Seng (HSI)
Hang Seng Analysis: Close at 24,062 Sits at the Falling Channel Floor as Chip and AI Stocks Drag the Hang Seng Tech Index Down 2.7%
24,062.72 −251.45 (−1.03%) day Day range 23,945.84–24,162.71 HK close, 08:00 GMT
Outlook: Bias is bearish below the 24,440 fast average. The Hang Seng closed at 24,062.72 on Thursday 15 October, down 1.03%, after hot US CPI hit Wall Street and a chip rout spread across Asia (Nikkei −4.8%, Hang Seng Tech −2.7%). The preferred approach is a rally short at 24,400 with a stop at 24,580 and targets at 23,950 and 23,700.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 23,700
- Support 1
- 23,950
- Resistance 1
- 24,400
- Resistance 2
- 24,580
Daily chart structure
- Price trades inside a falling channel drawn from the late-July high near 26,300; Thursday’s low of 23,945.84 sits just above the early-October low near 23,780 and the channel floor.
- The fast average at 24,439.22 sits above price, with the mid average at 24,812.87 and long average at 25,012.44 sloping down in a bearish stack; Wednesday’s high of 24,524.63 was rejected below the fast average.
- RSI reads 40.21, just above its signal line at 39.33 but under 50, a bearish and stabilising reading; US 10-year yields near 5.09% and Brent near $104 keep rate fears alive, and Hong Kong reacts to US jobless claims only at Friday’s open.
Hang Seng trade setup
Short Medium conviction- Entry
- 24,400
- Stop loss
- 24,580
- Target 1
- 23,950
- Target 2
- 23,700
Risk 180 points, or 0.74%. Reward:risk 2.5 to target 1, 3.9 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a bounce into the 24,400 area, just under the 24,439 fast average and below Wednesday’s 24,524 high. The stop is above that high and below the 24,812 mid average, and the targets are the 23,950 intraday low and the 23,700 channel floor.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 24,580. A soft US jobless claims or PPI print at 12:30 GMT that drags US yields lower, or fresh China stabilisation support, is the main risk.
UK Index | FTSE 100 (UKX)
FTSE 100 Analysis: Rebound Reclaims All Three Averages at 10,783 as a UK GDP Beat Outweighs the US CPI Shock
10,783.85 +58.98 (+0.55%) day Day range 10,695.84–10,787.68 08:51 GMT
Outlook: Bias is neutral to bullish while the FTSE 100 holds the 10,715 fast average. The index traded at 10,783.85 on Thursday 15 October, up 0.55%, after UK GDP grew 0.1% in August against a forecast 0.1% fall, with three-month growth at 0.7%. The preferred approach is a pullback long at 10,715 with a stop at 10,595 and targets at 10,850 and 10,990, sized for low conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 10,595
- Support 1
- 10,715
- Resistance 1
- 10,850
- Resistance 2
- 10,990
Daily chart structure
- Price broke the rising line from the March low in late September, fell to a low near 10,360 in early October and has rebounded toward the falling resistance line from the late-July high near 10,990.
- The fast average at 10,715.35, mid average at 10,630.09 and long average at 10,615.60 now sit below price and are bunched, so 10,615–10,715 is a dense support zone.
- RSI reads 59.66, well above its signal line at 43.63, a rising reading short of overbought; BoE hike doubts, Rio Tinto and Glencore weakness (metals) and a Bailey speech at 02:00 GMT on Friday are the swing factors.
FTSE 100 trade setup
Long Low conviction- Entry
- 10,715
- Stop loss
- 10,595
- Target 1
- 10,850
- Target 2
- 10,990
Risk 120 points, or 1.12%. Reward:risk 1.1 to target 1, 2.3 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a pullback to the 10,715 fast average, where the rebound from the early-October low has been rebuilt. The stop is below the 10,615 long average, and the targets are the 10,850 falling resistance line and the 10,990 July high.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 10,595. A hawkish US claims or PPI surprise at 12:30 GMT that lifts yields, or a deeper miners and tech sell-off, is the main risk.
French Index | CAC 40 (FCHI)
CAC 40 Analysis: Bounce From the 7,690 Low Stalls Under the 7,945 Fast Average After the Wedge Break
7,903.58 +30.46 (+0.39%) day Day range 7,853.40–7,926.47 08:54 GMT
Outlook: Bias is bearish below the 7,945 fast average. The CAC 40 traded at 7,903.58 on Thursday 15 October, up 0.39%, a bounce inside a downtrend that has taken price about 12% below the August high near 8,760. The preferred approach is a rally short at 7,945 with a stop at 8,030 and targets at 7,800 and 7,690.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 7,690
- Support 1
- 7,800
- Resistance 1
- 7,945
- Resistance 2
- 8,030
Daily chart structure
- Price broke below a rising wedge in late August after rejecting at 8,760 and fell to a low near 7,690 in early October; the past four candles are a small rebound.
- The fast average at 7,944.58 sits just above price, with the mid average at 8,214.18 and long average at 8,295.59 falling in a bearish stack; a daily close above 8,030 would open the mid average.
- RSI reads 42.77, above its signal line at 32.89 but under 50, so momentum is recovering from oversold without a trend change; the CAC trails the FTSE because banks and luxury names weigh, and euro-area industrial production for August is due at 09:00 GMT.
CAC 40 trade setup
Short Medium conviction- Entry
- 7,945
- Stop loss
- 8,030
- Target 1
- 7,800
- Target 2
- 7,690
Risk 85 points, or 1.07%. Reward:risk 1.7 to target 1, 3.0 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a rally into the 7,945 fast average, the first moving-average test since the break lower. The stop is above the 8,030 area that capped the late-September bounce, and the targets are the 7,800 support and the 7,690 early-October low.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 8,030. Soft US jobless claims or PPI at 12:30 GMT that pulls US yields lower and lifts European equities, or a Middle East ceasefire that cuts oil, is the main risk.
US Tech Index | Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Hot CPI Drives a 2% Drop to the 29,860 Channel Floor as Chip Stocks Extend a Six-Day Slide
29,950.82 −618.66 (−2.02%) day Day range 29,861.06–30,436.60 Wed close, 21:00 GMT
Outlook: Bias is neutral while the Nasdaq 100 holds the 29,860 channel floor, but price is under the fast average. The index closed at 29,950.82 on Wednesday 14 October, down 2.02%, after US core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.3%, its sixth straight decline. The preferred approach is a floor long at 29,870 with a stop at 29,550 and targets at 30,520 and 31,000, sized for low conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 29,550
- Support 1
- 29,870
- Resistance 1
- 30,520
- Resistance 2
- 31,000
Daily chart structure
- Price trades inside a rising channel from the late-July low near 27,200; the early-October high near 31,300 capped the advance, and Wednesday’s drop lands on the lower line near 29,860.
- The fast average at 30,522.62 now sits above price, while the mid average at 29,862.76 and long average at 29,624.76 sit just below; a daily close under 29,625 would break the channel and the long average together.
- RSI reads 44.55, below its signal line at 60.81 and under 50, so momentum has turned down sharply; CME FedWatch prices a 37% chance of an October Fed hike, up from 22%, with Oracle, CoreWeave and Nebius leading the sell-off and TSMC posting record Q3 profit as a partial offset.
Nasdaq 100 trade setup
Long Low conviction- Entry
- 29,870
- Stop loss
- 29,550
- Target 1
- 30,520
- Target 2
- 31,000
Risk 320 points, or 1.07%. Reward:risk 2.0 to target 1, 3.5 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a test of the 29,870 channel floor and mid average, where the uptrend of higher lows since July has held. The stop is below the 29,625 long average, and the targets are the 30,520 fast average and the 31,000 area below the October high.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 29,550. A low jobless claims print or hot PPI at 12:30 GMT that lifts Fed hike odds and yields, or another leg lower in semiconductors, is the main risk.
US Index | S&P 500 (SPX)
S&P 500 Analysis: Biggest Drop Since 29 July Pulls Price to the 7,707 Mid Average With Hike Bets Rising
7,718.94 −86.51 (−1.11%) day Day range 7,693.31–7,789.15 Wed close, 21:00 GMT
Outlook: Bias is neutral to bullish while the S&P 500 holds the 7,707 mid average and the rising channel. The index closed at 7,718.94 on Wednesday 14 October, down 1.11% from a week-old record high, as hot CPI lifted hike bets; information technology fell 2.6% and bank stocks hit their lowest since June. The preferred approach is a pullback long at 7,705 with a stop at 7,640 and targets at 7,790 and 7,840, sized for low conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 7,640
- Support 1
- 7,705
- Resistance 1
- 7,790
- Resistance 2
- 7,840
Daily chart structure
- Price trades inside a rising channel from the late-July low near 7,300; the record high near 7,840 last week capped the advance, and the channel floor sits near 7,590.
- The fast average at 7,733.48 sits just above price, with the mid average at 7,707.02 and long average at 7,593.85 below; the three averages are close together, so 7,707 is the first line to hold.
- RSI reads 49.47, below its signal line at 55.43 and at the neutral 50 line, a cooling reading; the Dow was nearly flat, so the damage is concentrated in AI and tech, and Warsh speaks at 03:30 GMT on Friday ahead of the 27–28 October FOMC.
S&P 500 trade setup
Long Low conviction- Entry
- 7,705
- Stop loss
- 7,640
- Target 1
- 7,790
- Target 2
- 7,840
Risk 65 points, or 0.84%. Reward:risk 1.3 to target 1, 2.1 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a pullback to the 7,707 mid average, where the channel has held through the August and September dips. The stop is below the 7,640 level between the mid and long averages, and the targets are the 7,790 Wednesday high and the 7,840 record high.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 7,640. Claims below 195K or a hot PPI print at 12:30 GMT that lifts hike odds and yields, or a further chip sell-off, is the main risk.
Conclusion
US jobless claims at 12:30 GMT set two paths after Wednesday’s hot CPI. Low claims favour the Hang Seng at 23,950 then 23,700, the Nasdaq 100 at 29,860 then 29,625 and the S&P 500 at 7,705 then 7,640. High claims favour the Nasdaq 100 at 30,520 then 31,000, the S&P 500 at 7,790 then 7,840 and the FTSE 100 at 10,850 then 10,990. The Hang Seng and CAC 40 carry medium conviction; the FTSE 100, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 carry low conviction.
Treat every level as conditional and wait for 1-hour closes beyond a stop before judging an idea invalid. Size positions smaller into the 12:30 GMT releases and the Warsh speech at 03:30 GMT on Friday, because Middle East headlines, chip-sector swings and Fed hike repricing can gap indices quickly. Our approach is to trade the levels, not the headlines.
Trade the Hang Seng, FTSE 100, CAC 40, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Hang Seng outlook for 15 October 2026?
Bias is bearish below 24,440. The Hang Seng closed at 24,062.72, down 1.03%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.72%. The preferred idea is a medium-conviction rally short at 24,400 with a stop at 24,580 and targets at 23,950 and 23,700.
What time are US jobless claims released in GMT?
Initial jobless claims for the week ending 10 October are due Thursday 15 October at 12:30 GMT, with September PPI and retail sales at the same time. Consensus is 200K against 197K prior, and continuing claims are expected near 1.709M.
What are the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 levels today?
FTSE 100 support sits at 10,715 and 10,595, with resistance at 10,850 and 10,990; the idea is a low-conviction pullback long at 10,715. CAC 40 resistance sits at 7,945 and 8,030, with support at 7,800 and 7,690; the idea is a medium-conviction rally short at 7,945.
What are the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 trade setups?
Nasdaq 100 is a low-conviction floor long at 29,870 with a stop at 29,550 and targets at 30,520 and 31,000. S&P 500 is a low-conviction pullback long at 7,705 with a stop at 7,640 and targets at 7,790 and 7,840. Both are conditional on the 12:30 GMT data.
What are Fed rate hike odds after the September CPI?
CME FedWatch priced about a 37% chance of an October Fed hike after CPI, up from 22% the day before. Headline CPI was 3.7% y/y and core was 2.6% y/y and +0.3% m/m against 0.2% expected. The next FOMC is on 27–28 October.
