USD/JPY Breaks Below 157.3 as the Dollar Nears a Three-Week Low, GBP/USD Holds 1.3405 and USD/CAD Tests 1.4020 Before Central Bank Week | Technical analysis – Forex Report | 22 Oct 2026
Forex Today | Thursday 22 October 2026
USD/JPY Breaks Below 157.3 as the Dollar Nears a Three-Week Low, GBP/USD Holds 1.3405 and USD/CAD Tests 1.4020 Before Central Bank Week
Market Overview
The dollar paused near a three-week low on Thursday. At about 07:45 GMT USD/JPY was 157.305 (−0.52%), AUD/JPY 110.359 (−0.71%), EUR/USD 1.12353 (+0.03%), GBP/USD 1.34053 (+0.10%), USD/CAD 1.40196 (−0.21%) and USD/CHF 0.82116 (−0.38%). The Dollar Index touched 101.58 at 04:53 GMT, its lowest since 1 October, on lower Treasury yields, while Brent near $111 and Middle East tension keep inflation risks alive. The Fed, BoC, ECB and BoJ all decide between 28 and 30 October, with hawkish holds expected. We read the session as a dollar pullback inside a still dollar-long market: the yen, franc and loonie lead, sterling is breaking up and the euro is stuck under its roof.
Key highlights
- USD/JPY: Price is 157.31, under a broken triangle floor and all three averages; 157.93 caps rallies.
- AUD/JPY: Price is 110.36 after a rejection at the wedge roof; 111.55 is resistance.
- EUR/USD: Price is 1.1235 at the channel roof under the 1.1244 average, with RSI 41.16.
- GBP/USD: Price is 1.3405 after a channel breakout; 1.3387 is the key floor.
- USD/CAD: Price is 1.4020 on the 1.4010 average with RSI 38.84; the BoC decides on 28 October.
- USD/CHF: Price is 0.8212 after breaking a rising channel floor; 0.8297 is resistance.
What’s Moving Forex Today
Dollar near a three-week low, but the market is still long
The Dollar Index slipped to 101.58 at 04:53 GMT, its lowest since 1 October, as Treasury yields fell. Reuters notes that currency positioning is still long dollars on the view that the AI boom keeps US growth strong, so recent gains in sterling, the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars look like a modest trim of that bet.
Yen firms as the BoJ and intervention risk keep USD/JPY near 158 in check
USD/JPY fell about 0.3% to 0.5% on Asian trade. The BoJ meets on 29 and 30 October with a hold expected, and Governor Ueda has said underlying inflation is nearing 2%, so a hike by December is in focus. Tokyo bought a record ¥11.73 trillion of yen between April and May and stepped in again in July with the US Treasury, so a push toward 160 risks another intervention.
Sterling holds near a one-month high on hot UK inflation
GBP/USD reached $1.3409 earlier this week and held near $1.3396 in early trade, helped by UK September CPI of 3.5%. A Bank of England hike on 5 November is heavily priced, which has pushed the pair out of its falling channel.
Euro steady above $1.12 after a month-long slide
The euro has stayed above $1.12 apart from a brief dip early on Monday. French fiscal worries and Europe’s energy fragility attract short sellers, and the ECB decides on 29 October with a hawkish hold expected.
RBA warns on inflation; loonie rises with oil near $99
RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said on Wednesday that the inflation outlook looks “materially worse” partly on oil, lifting bets on a hike as soon as next month. USD/CAD fell to 1.4020 with WTI near $99, but Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and the BoC (2.25%) decides on 28 October.
Brent near $111 as Middle East tension lifts oil; gold slips
Brent rose about 2% to near $111 on supply fears, with headlines of a drone intercepted near Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field, while gold fell about 1% to near $4,103 and US stock futures dipped before Tesla and Meta results. Higher oil adds to the inflation worries behind hawkish central-bank holds and supports the franc and yen as havens.
Key Drivers Ahead
Seven events that set direction for USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. All times are GMT.
- US jobless claims
- 200K
- Thu 22 Oct, 12:30 GMT
- Forecast 200K after 199K
- Flash PMIs
- Oct
- Due this week; check release time
- Euro area, UK and US; EZ consumer confidence forecast −16
- Bank of Canada
- 28 Oct
- Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT
- Rate 2.25%; jobs fell 68K in September
- FOMC decision
- 28 Oct
- Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT
- Hold at 3.75%–4.00% expected; tone is key
- ECB decision
- 29 Oct
- Thu 29 Oct, 12:45 GMT
- Hawkish hold expected; US GDP at 12:30 GMT
- Bank of Japan
- 30 Oct
- Meeting 29–30 Oct; decision Fri 30 Oct
- Hold expected; intervention risk near 160
- Bank of England
- 5 Nov
- Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 GMT
- Hike heavily priced after 3.5% CPI
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, valid for today’s session and the Asian open. A 1-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Short | 157.90 | 158.60 | 156.50 | 155.00 | 2.0 / 4.1 | Medium |
| AUD/JPY | Short | 111.50 | 112.20 | 109.90 | 108.90 | 2.3 / 3.7 | Low |
| EUR/USD | Short | 1.1260 | 1.1330 | 1.1170 | 1.1100 | 1.3 / 2.3 | Low |
| GBP/USD | Long | 1.3370 | 1.3300 | 1.3500 | 1.3560 | 1.9 / 2.7 | Medium |
| USD/CAD | Short | 1.4090 | 1.4160 | 1.3920 | 1.3850 | 2.4 / 3.4 | Medium |
| USD/CHF | Short | 0.8260 | 0.8335 | 0.8132 | 0.8040 | 1.7 / 2.9 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Prices are read at about 07:45 GMT on 22 October from TradingView daily charts and cross-checked with Investing.com and Reuters; every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger. USD/JPY and AUD/JPY shorts share yen strength as their driver. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
The direction of the dollar, oil and next week’s central banks are the swing factors.
Dollar rebounds: oil above $111, firm claims and a hawkish Fed tone
Higher oil and yields would pull the dollar back up and hit sterling, the euro and AUD/JPY first.
- USD/JPY157.93, then 159.37
- AUD/JPY109.90, then 108.90
- EUR/USD1.1170, then 1.1100
- GBP/USD1.3387, then 1.3266
- USD/CAD1.4044, then 1.4186
- USD/CHF0.8297, then 0.8400
Dollar slide extends: lower yields, yen support and a cautious Fed
Falling yields and intervention risk would extend the yen, franc and loonie gains and let EUR/USD and GBP/USD break higher.
- USD/JPY156.50, then 155.00
- AUD/JPY111.55, then 112.10
- EUR/USD1.1244, then 1.1443
- GBP/USD1.3500, then 1.3560
- USD/CAD1.3920, then 1.3850
- USD/CHF0.8132, then 0.8040
US Dollar / Japanese Yen | USDJPY, FXCM feed
USD/JPY Analysis: Price Breaks the Floor of a Rising Triangle Below 157.6 and Targets 156.50
157.305 −0.827 (−0.52%) at about 07:45 GMT Day range 156.821–158.251
Outlook: Bias is lower while 157.93 caps rallies. The pair fell below a triangle floor as the dollar slid to a three-week low and the threat of Japanese intervention and a BoJ hike by December supported the yen.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 155.00
- Support 1
- 156.50
- Resistance 1
- 157.93
- Resistance 2
- 159.37
- Price (157.31) is under the 157.61, 157.93 and 159.37 averages; a retest of the broken floor near 157.90 is the first place sellers may return.
- RSI 44.88 is under its signal line at 53.61 and turning down; a close above 159.37 would cancel the break and open a run at 160, where intervention fears rise.
Setup: Short at 157.90, stop 158.60, targets 156.50 and 155.00. Reward:risk 2.0 / 4.1, medium conviction.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen | AUDJPY, OANDA feed
AUD/JPY Analysis: Price Is Rejected at the Roof of a Falling Wedge and Slips Back to the 110.20 Average
110.359 −0.793 (−0.71%) at about 07:45 GMT Day range 109.957–111.312
Outlook: Bias is lower while 111.55 caps rallies. A stronger yen outweighed hawkish RBA comments that lifted Australian rate-hike bets, and price turned down at the falling wedge line.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 108.90
- Support 1
- 109.90
- Resistance 1
- 111.55
- Resistance 2
- 112.10
- Price (110.36) is above only the 110.20 average and under 111.55 and 112.10; the wedge roof and 111.55 average form a tight resistance zone.
- RSI 47.33 is just above its signal line at 44.88; a close under 109.90 would aim at the wedge floor near 108.70, while a close above 112.10 would break the wedge higher.
Setup: Short at 111.50, stop 112.20, targets 109.90 and 108.90. Reward:risk 2.3 / 3.7, low conviction.
Euro / US Dollar | EURUSD, FXCM feed
EUR/USD Analysis: Price Tests the Roof of a Falling Channel at 1.1244 After a Rebound From 1.1100
1.12353 +0.00037 (+0.03%) at about 07:45 GMT Day range 1.12257–1.12559
Outlook: Bias is neutral to lower while 1.1244 holds. The euro has held above $1.12 as the dollar paused, but French fiscal worries and Europe’s energy fragility keep short sellers active.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.1100
- Support 1
- 1.1170
- Resistance 1
- 1.1244
- Resistance 2
- 1.1443
- Price (1.1235) is under all three averages; the 1.1244 average sits on the channel roof, and the 1.1443 and 1.1454 averages are the next hurdles.
- RSI 41.16 is above its signal line at 30.77, a recovery from oversold; a daily close above 1.1244 would target 1.1443, while a rejection points back to 1.1170.
Setup: Short at 1.1260, stop 1.1330, targets 1.1170 and 1.1100. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.3, low conviction.
British Pound / US Dollar | GBPUSD, FXCM feed
GBP/USD Analysis: Price Breaks Out of a Falling Channel and Tests the 1.3406 Average
1.34053 +0.00128 (+0.10%) at about 07:45 GMT Day range 1.33805–1.34098
Outlook: Bias is higher while 1.3387 holds. Sterling touched a one-month high at $1.3409 this week on hotter UK inflation, with a Bank of England hike on 5 November heavily priced.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3266
- Support 1
- 1.3387
- Resistance 1
- 1.3500
- Resistance 2
- 1.3560
- Price (1.3405) is above the 1.3387 and 1.3266 averages and level with 1.3406; a daily close above it would aim at 1.3500.
- RSI 59.09 is above its signal line at 45.07 and rising; a close under 1.3387 would put the breakout in doubt and send price back toward 1.3266.
Setup: Long at 1.3370, stop 1.3300, targets 1.3500 and 1.3560. Reward:risk 1.9 / 2.7, medium conviction.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar | USDCAD, OANDA feed
USD/CAD Analysis: Price Falls From the 1.4300 Channel Roof to Support Near 1.4010
1.40196 −0.00289 (−0.21%) at about 07:45 GMT Day range 1.40140–1.40495
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.4044 caps rallies. The loonie is at multi-week highs as the dollar weakens and WTI trades near $99, but the Bank of Canada decides on 28 October after September job losses of 68,000.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3850
- Support 1
- 1.3920
- Resistance 1
- 1.4044
- Resistance 2
- 1.4186
- Price (1.4020) is under the 1.4186 and 1.4044 averages and just above 1.4010; a close below 1.4010 would open the 1.3920 area.
- RSI 38.84 is well under its signal line at 58.84; the channel floor near 1.3850 is the main support, and a close above 1.4044 would ease the pressure.
Setup: Short at 1.4090, stop 1.4160, targets 1.3920 and 1.3850. Reward:risk 2.4 / 3.4, medium conviction.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc | USDCHF, FXCM feed
USD/CHF Analysis: Price Breaks Below a Rising Channel Floor and Tests the 0.8192 Average
0.82116 −0.00314 (−0.38%) at about 07:45 GMT Day range 0.81914–0.82465
Outlook: Bias is lower while 0.8297 caps rallies. The franc is gaining as the dollar slips and oil-driven Middle East tension supports safe havens, and price has dropped from the 0.8400 October high.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8040
- Support 1
- 0.8132
- Resistance 1
- 0.8297
- Resistance 2
- 0.8400
- Price (0.8212) is above the 0.8192 and 0.8132 averages and under 0.8297; a close below 0.8192 would aim at 0.8132.
- RSI 43.48 is under its signal line at 56.34; a retest of the broken floor near 0.8260 is the first place sellers may return, and a close above 0.8297 would cancel the break.
Setup: Short at 0.8260, stop 0.8335, targets 0.8132 and 0.8040. Reward:risk 1.7 / 2.9, medium conviction.
Conclusion
USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF have the clearest structure today, with price under broken floors or averages. We prefer selling USD/JPY bounces under 158.60, USD/CAD under 1.4160 and USD/CHF under 0.8335, buying GBP/USD pullbacks while 1.3300 holds, and treating the EUR/USD and AUD/JPY shorts as lower conviction. The nearest risks are US jobless claims at 12:30 GMT today, the BoC and FOMC on 28 October (13:45 and 18:00 GMT), the ECB on 29 October (12:45 GMT), the BoJ on 30 October and the Bank of England on 5 November. A daily EUR/USD close above 1.1244 would confirm a channel breakout.
Trade USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is USD/JPY falling today?
The dollar is near a three-week low on lower Treasury yields, a BoJ hike by December is in focus and Tokyo has shown it will intervene. Price has broken a triangle floor and sits under all three averages, with 157.93 as resistance.
Why is GBP/USD holding near a one-month high?
UK CPI at 3.5% made a Bank of England hike on 5 November heavily priced, and the dollar is softer. Price left its falling channel and sits on the 1.3406 average, with 1.3387 as the key floor.
Is the euro likely to break higher against the dollar?
Not yet. EUR/USD is at its channel roof near 1.1244 and under all three averages, while French fiscal worries and energy costs keep short sellers active. A daily close above 1.1244 would target 1.1443.
How do the 28 to 30 October central banks affect these pairs?
Hawkish holds are expected from the Fed, ECB and BoJ, and the BoC decides on 28 October. Any tightening signal from the BoJ would hit USD/JPY and AUD/JPY, while a hawkish Fed tone would lift the dollar against the euro, sterling and loonie.
