Oil Above $100 Crushes Gold and Silver as Fed Hike Odds Hit 78%: Gold Sinks to $4,023.42, Silver Hits a 7-Month Low | Technical Analysis – Commodity Report | 23 Oct 2026
Commodities Today | Friday 23 October 2026
Oil Above $100 Crushes Gold and Silver as Fed Hike Odds Hit 78%: Gold Sinks to $4,023.42, Silver Hits a 7-Month Low
Market Overview
Commodities are split between an energy squeeze and a metals sell-off. At about 12:10 GMT WTI crude was $101.59 (+2.52%) with Brent near $114.47 after Houthi attacks on Saudi sites, while gold was $4,023.42 (−0.02%), silver 53.90 (−1.26%), copper 6.5400 (+1.21%), aluminium 3,009.3 (+0.58%), natural gas 2.725 (−2.68%) and corn 458.63 (−0.30%). Spot gold touched its lowest since early August on Thursday and silver a seven-month low because higher oil keeps inflation, Treasury yields and Fed hike bets elevated, with traders pricing about a 78% chance of a December increase. We read the session as oil-led inflation pressure on metals, mild weather on gas and harvest pressure on corn; US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and the Fed, PCE and ECB next week are the next tests.
Key highlights
- Gold: Price is 4,023.42 under averages at 4,137, 4,229 and 4,302 with RSI 34.78; 3,960 is the next support.
- Copper: Price is 6.5400 on the lowest average after leaving a rising channel; LME stocks are at 273,750 tonnes.
- Silver: Price is 53.90 on a falling channel floor with RSI 31.62; 52.80 is the next support.
- Aluminium: Price is 3,009.3 under a broken triangle; 3,061 caps and 2,935 is the low.
- Crude oil: WTI is 101.59 above all averages with RSI 65.58; 104 is the triangle roof.
- Natural gas: Futures are 2.725 at a two-month low; 2.68 is the key support.
- Corn: Futures are 458.63 under all averages with RSI 37.17; 453.50 is first support.
What’s Moving Commodities Today
Brent holds near $114 after Houthi attacks and Aramco evacuates its Dhahran headquarters
Brent rose to about $114.47 and WTI to about $100.84 earlier today after Houthi attacks on a Saudi defence site, two airports and an Aramco facility in Yanbu over 48 hours. A shut pipeline valve in Libya cut output at two fields, clashes continue near Bab el-Mandeb and Brent is heading for a third weekly gain; analysts expect no de-escalation before the 3 November US elections.
Gold and silver hit multi-month lows as oil feeds inflation and Fed hike fears
Spot gold fell 2.4% on Thursday to $4,041.39, its lowest since 3 August, and silver dropped 5.4% to $54.84 as higher oil kept rate expectations high. Hot US inflation data last week means the Fed is expected to hold on 27–28 October, but traders price about a 78% chance of a December hike, with PCE data due on 29 October and Goldman Sachs seeing a peak policy range of 4.00%–4.25%.
Copper bounces from a five-week low as stock markets stabilise
Three-month LME copper gained 0.8% to $14,190 a tonne by 10:00 GMT after Thursday’s 1.9% fall, helped by a calmer tech market. LME stocks are 273,750 tonnes, up about a fifth in a week, and the pile of copper in the US is a worry because it could be re-exported; Yangshan premiums at $148 show firm Chinese import demand.
LME aluminium holds $3,007 while warehouse stocks sit at a 25-year low
Aluminium settled at about $3,008 a tonne on 22–23 October, around $780 below the early-June peak of $3,787.50, even though LME stocks are the lowest this century. Shanghai closed at RMB 23,145, and the market is weighing a Gulf supply deficit against new supply from Indonesia.
US natural gas falls to a two-month low on mild weather
Futures dropped 2.68% to about $2.72 per MMBtu as forecasts of mild weather through early November cut heating demand. The EIA reported a 77 Bcf storage build, output is about 2.5 bcfd below its August–September record of 113.3 bcfd and LNG feedgas is near maximum, but those supports were overridden by the weather.
Corn heads for a fourth weekly loss as the US harvest advances
December corn is 458.63, down about 3% on the week, as farmers cut 44% of the crop, below expectations, in dry weather and funds sell. Bumper US crop projections and a record-length wheat losing streak, now eight weeks, add to the weight, while ethanol demand and bargain buying limit the fall.
Key Drivers Ahead
Six events that set direction for gold, copper, silver, aluminium, crude oil, natural gas and corn. All times are GMT.
- US flash PMIs
- 13:45
- Fri 23 Oct, 13:45 GMT
- S&P Global manufacturing and services; copper, gold and crude oil
- US Michigan sentiment
- 14:00
- Fri 23 Oct, 14:00 GMT
- Inflation expectations feed Fed hike bets; gold and silver
- Baker Hughes rig count
- 17:00
- Fri 23 Oct, 17:00 GMT
- US oil and gas rigs; crude oil and natural gas
- EIA crude stocks and Fed
- 28 Oct
- Wed 28 Oct, 14:30 and 18:00 GMT
- EIA inventories, then the Fed decision; gold, silver and crude oil
- PCE, ECB and EIA gas storage
- 29 Oct
- Thu 29 Oct, 12:30, 13:15 and 14:30 GMT
- US September PCE, ECB decision and gas storage; natural gas and metals
- US elections
- 3 Nov
- Tue 3 Nov, US session
- Reports of possible US–Israeli strikes on Iran afterwards; crude oil and gold
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order gold, copper, silver, aluminium, crude oil, natural gas and corn, valid for today’s session and the Monday open. A 1-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Short | 4,090.00 | 4,160.00 | 3,960.00 | 3,890.00 | 1.9 / 2.9 | Medium |
| Copper | Short | 6.6200 | 6.7200 | 6.4300 | 6.3000 | 1.9 / 3.2 | Medium |
| Silver | Short | 55.20 | 56.60 | 52.80 | 50.80 | 1.7 / 3.1 | Medium |
| Aluminium | Short | 3,060 | 3,110 | 2,950 | 2,880 | 2.2 / 3.6 | Low |
| Crude Oil | Long | 99.50 | 96.80 | 104.00 | 106.00 | 1.7 / 2.4 | Medium |
| Natural Gas | Short | 2.800 | 2.900 | 2.580 | 2.490 | 2.2 / 3.1 | Medium |
| Corn | Short | 464.50 | 470.00 | 453.50 | 445.00 | 2.0 / 3.5 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Prices are read between 12:07 and 12:11 GMT on 23 October from TradingView daily charts, with natural gas and corn taken from Investing.com; every entry sits away from the current price and needs a bounce or a pullback to trigger. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
Brent, Treasury yields and US flash PMIs are the swing factors today, with the Fed, PCE and ECB the main events next week.
Oil surge, Fed hike bets: Brent holds near $114 and PCE runs hot
More Houthi attacks and hot inflation would lift WTI and pressure gold, silver, copper, aluminium and corn, while gas follows the weather lower.
- Gold3,960, then 3,890
- Copper6.43, then 6.30
- Silver52.80, then 50.80
- Aluminium2,950, then 2,880
- Crude Oil104.00, then 106.00
- Natural Gas2.58, then 2.49
- Corn453.50, then 445.00
Oil eases, yields fall: de-escalation and softer US data
A pullback in Brent, soft US PMIs and lower yields would let gold, silver and copper recover part of the week’s losses and take WTI back toward its averages.
- Gold4,137, then 4,229
- Copper6.67, then 6.80
- Silver58.50, then 60.00
- Aluminium3,061, then 3,175
- Crude Oil94.10, then 92.40
- Natural Gas2.97, then 3.09
- Corn464.30, then 472.26
Gold (XAU/USD) | TVC feed, spot
Gold Analysis: Price Drops Into the Lower Half of a Falling Channel at a Two-Month Low Under All Three Averages
4,023.42 −0.91 (−0.02%) at about 12:10 GMT Day range 3,986.85–4,032.72
Outlook: Bias is lower while 4,065 to 4,137 caps rallies. Spot gold hit its lowest since early August as Brent near $114 revived inflation fears and Fed hike bets, with the market pricing about a 78% chance of a December increase after the 27–28 October meeting.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 3,890.00
- Support 1
- 3,960.00
- Resistance 1
- 4,065.00
- Resistance 2
- 4,137.00
- Price (4,023.42) is under the 4,137, 4,229 and 4,302 averages; the channel floor near 3,890 and the June low at 3,960–3,940 are the next supports, with projections near 3,830 below.
- RSI 34.78 is under its signal line at 41.23 and close to oversold; a daily close above 4,137 would put price back at the channel roof and cancel the bearish case.
Setup: Short at 4,090.00, stop 4,160.00, targets 3,960.00 and 3,890.00. Reward:risk 1.9 / 2.9, medium conviction.
Copper (HG) | Capital.com feed
Copper Analysis: Price Rebounds to the Broken Floor of a Rising Channel and Sits on the Lowest Average
6.5400 +0.0783 (+1.21%) at about 12:09 GMT Day range 6.4343–6.5633
Outlook: Bias is neutral to lower while 6.57 to 6.67 caps rallies. LME three-month copper bounced 0.8% to $14,190 a tonne by 10:00 GMT after Thursday’s 1.9% slide to a five-week low, but LME stocks of 273,750 tonnes and the US stock pile still weigh.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 6.3000
- Support 1
- 6.4300
- Resistance 1
- 6.5700
- Resistance 2
- 6.6700
- Price (6.5400) sits on the 6.5395 average and under the 6.6570 and 6.6665 averages and the broken channel floor; today’s low at 6.4343 is first support and the 6.20 area the next.
- RSI 43.69 is under its signal line at 48.86; a daily close above 6.67 would put price back inside the channel and cancel the bearish case.
Setup: Short at 6.6200, stop 6.7200, targets 6.4300 and 6.3000. Reward:risk 1.9 / 3.2, medium conviction.
Silver (XAG/USD) | OANDA feed
Silver Analysis: Price Presses the Floor of a Falling Channel With RSI Close to 31
53.9045 −0.6875 (−1.26%) at about 12:08 GMT Day range 53.4560–54.7480
Outlook: Bias is lower while 55.00 to 56.00 caps rallies. Silver fell 5.4% on Thursday to a seven-month low as oil-driven inflation fears and Fed hike bets hit precious metals; Investing.com silver futures were 53.97 (−1.17%) in the same session.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 50.80
- Support 1
- 52.80
- Resistance 1
- 55.00
- Resistance 2
- 58.50
- Price (53.9045) is trading on the channel floor near 52.5 after breaking the 55 to 56 June–July lows; the 52.80 and 50.80 areas are the next supports and the 52-week low is 45.54.
- RSI 31.62 is under its signal line at 38.25 and near oversold, so a bounce is likely; a daily close above 58.50 would break the channel roof zone and cancel the bearish case.
Setup: Short at 55.20, stop 56.60, targets 52.80 and 50.80. Reward:risk 1.7 / 3.1, medium conviction.
Aluminium (ALIUSD) | Capital.com feed
Aluminium Analysis: Price Bounces Above the October Low Under a Broken Triangle and Three Falling Averages
3,009.3 +17.5 (+0.58%) at about 12:07 GMT Day range 2,986.3–3,025.1
Outlook: Bias is lower while 3,061 caps rallies. LME aluminium is near $3,007 a tonne, about $780 under the June peak, even though LME warehouse stocks are the lowest this century; Shanghai closed at RMB 23,145.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2,880
- Support 1
- 2,935
- Resistance 1
- 3,061
- Resistance 2
- 3,175
- Price (3,009.3) is under the 3,061.3, 3,174.7 and 3,207.8 averages and the broken triangle; the 2,935 October low is the first support and 2,880 the next.
- RSI 36.18 has crossed above its signal line at 31.94 near oversold, so a rebound can reach 3,061; record-low LME stocks limit the downside, which is why conviction is low.
Setup: Short at 3,060, stop 3,110, targets 2,950 and 2,880. Reward:risk 2.2 / 3.6, low conviction.
WTI Crude Oil | TVC CFD feed
Crude Oil Analysis: WTI Pushes Above $100 Toward the Roof of a Symmetrical Triangle With Brent Near $114
101.59 +2.50 (+2.52%) at about 12:11 GMT Day range 98.84–101.62
Outlook: Bias is higher while 99.50 holds. Houthi attacks on Saudi sites, Aramco’s Dhahran evacuation and a Libyan pipeline outage lifted Brent to about $114.47 and WTI to about $101, and reports of US and Israeli strikes on Iran after the 3 November elections keep a risk premium in prices.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 94.10
- Support 1
- 99.50
- Resistance 1
- 104.00
- Resistance 2
- 106.00
- Price (101.59) is above the 94.11, 92.39 and 86.11 averages and the rising triangle line; 99.50 (Thursday’s settle was 99.47) is first support and the roof near 104 first resistance, then the September high near 106.
- RSI 65.58 is above its signal line at 56.11 and rising; a daily close above 106 would break the triangle roof, while a close under 94 would cancel the bullish case.
Setup: Long at 99.50, stop 96.80, targets 104.00 and 106.00. Reward:risk 1.7 / 2.4, medium conviction.
Natural Gas (NG) | Investing.com NGX6 futures
Natural Gas Analysis: Mild Weather Drives Futures to a Two-Month Low Near the 2.68 Channel Support
2.725 −0.075 (−2.68%) at about the Investing.com quote Day range 2.723–2.792
Outlook: Bias is lower while 2.80 to 2.97 caps rallies. Forecasts for mild weather into early November cut heating demand, which outweighed a 77 Bcf storage build, production about 2.5 bcfd under its record and LNG feedgas near its limit.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2.490
- Support 1
- 2.680
- Resistance 1
- 2.800
- Resistance 2
- 2.970
- Price (2.725) is under the 50-day average near 2.96 and the 200-day near 3.09 and has broken below its channel; 2.68 is first support, then 2.49 and 2.33 if it closes under 2.68.
- No natural gas chart was supplied, so these levels come from Investing.com data and published analysis; a daily close above 2.97 would cancel the bearish case.
Setup: Short at 2.800, stop 2.900, targets 2.580 and 2.490. Reward:risk 2.2 / 3.1, medium conviction.
Corn (ZC) | Investing.com US Corn Dec 26 (ZCZ6)
Corn Analysis: Futures Slide Under All Averages After the Break of a Rising Wedge
458.63 −1.38 (−0.30%) at about 11:34 GMT Day range 457.88–462.13
Outlook: Bias is lower while 464 caps rallies. The US harvest is moving ahead in good weather with 44% of corn cut, funds are net sellers and the market is heading for a fourth straight weekly loss.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 445.00
- Support 1
- 453.50
- Resistance 1
- 464.30
- Resistance 2
- 472.26
- Price (458.63) is under the 461.46, 464.30 and 472.26 averages on Investing.com and the broken wedge; 453.50 (the 21 October low) is first support, then the 445 area.
- RSI 37.17 is near oversold, so a bounce to 464 is likely; the chart feed trades about 11 cents under ZCZ6, so chart averages are not used here. A daily close above 472 would cancel the bearish case.
Setup: Short at 464.50, stop 470.00, targets 453.50 and 445.00. Reward:risk 2.0 / 3.5, medium conviction.
Conclusion
Oil-led inflation fears are the common thread, so we prefer selling bounces in gold under 4,160, silver under 56.60, copper under 6.72 and aluminium under 3,110, buying WTI pullbacks to 99.50 while 96.80 holds, and selling natural gas under 2.90 and corn under 470. Aluminium is lower conviction because LME stocks are at a 25-year low. The nearest risks are the US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and Michigan sentiment at 14:00 GMT, then the Fed on 28 October at 18:00 GMT, PCE and the ECB on 29 October and the US elections on 3 November. A daily gold close above 4,137 would break the bearish pattern.
Trade gold, copper, silver, aluminium, crude oil, natural gas and corn with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are gold and silver falling while oil rises?
Higher oil raises inflation expectations and the odds of more Fed hikes, which lifts yields and makes non-yielding metals less attractive. Spot gold fell 2.4% to $4,041.39 and silver 5.4% to $54.84 on Thursday, and traders price about a 78% chance of a December hike.
Why is WTI above $100?
Houthi attacks on Saudi sites, Aramco’s Dhahran evacuation, a Libyan pipeline outage and talk of strikes on Iran after the 3 November elections added a supply risk premium. WTI is 101.59 above all averages with RSI 65.58, and 104 is the triangle roof.
Why is copper rebounding while aluminium is steady?
LME copper rose 0.8% to $14,190 after a five-week low as tech markets steadied and stock builds slowed, but LME stocks of 273,750 tonnes and the US stock pile cap the rally. Aluminium at about $3,007 is held up by the lowest LME stocks this century against new Indonesian supply.
Why did natural gas fall to a two-month low?
Mild weather into early November cut heating demand and outweighed a 77 Bcf storage build and near-maximum LNG feedgas. Futures are 2.725, and a close under 2.68 points to 2.49 and 2.33.
What are the next big events for these markets?
The US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and Michigan sentiment at 14:00 GMT come today, then EIA crude stocks and the Fed at 18:00 GMT on 28 October, PCE, the ECB at 13:15 GMT and EIA gas storage on 29 October, and the US elections on 3 November.
