Fed, BoC, ECB and BoJ Collide in One Week as EUR/USD Tests 1.1180 | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 24 Oct 2026
Forex This Week | 26–30 October 2026
Fed, BoC, ECB and BoJ Collide in One Week as EUR/USD Tests 1.1180
- Weekly bias
- Event-led, USD range
- Dollar softness meets a Fed hold; EUR/USD floor at 1.1180
- Expected volatility
- High
- Five rate decisions between 01:00 GMT Wednesday and 03:00 GMT Friday
- Key event
- Fed decision
- Wednesday 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT
- Key pivot level
- 1.1180
- EUR/USD channel floor; a weekly close below it extends the euro decline
Market Overview
The dollar eased for a second straight week as Treasury yields retreated, with the Australian and Canadian dollars leading the majors and the euro finishing last (BabyPips, 23 October). Canadian strength followed Governor Macklem's remarks on Saturday 17 October that the Bank's inflation projections would be revised higher; money-market odds of a hike jumped from about 30% to around three in four. The euro slid as French government bond yields climbed and the euro area composite PMI fell to 51.9 (MUFG).
Five central banks decide between Wednesday and Friday. The RBNZ announces at 01:00 GMT on Wednesday, the BoC at 13:45 GMT and the Fed at 18:00 GMT, followed by the ECB on Thursday at 13:15 GMT and the BoJ around 03:00 GMT on Friday. The Fed, ECB and BoJ are expected to hold, which leaves the BoC as the live decision. US third-quarter GDP and PCE inflation arrive on Thursday at 12:30 GMT, and the UK Autumn Budget lands on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.
We rate the strongest setups where central-bank direction and chart structure agree, and the weakest where the Budget and BoE pricing pull in opposite directions.
Key highlights
- Fed: Pimco expects a hold with a tightening bias and a 25 bps hike in December; CME FedWatch showed about 15% October odds.
- ECB: The deposit rate is 2.50%; a Reuters poll points to a hold now and a hike in December.
- BoC: Of 34 economists polled on 21–23 October, 19 expect a 25 bps hike to 2.50% from 2.25%.
- BoJ: Swaps price under 5% odds of a move in October and about 80% for December (BBH, via FXStreet).
- Sterling: The BoE is widely expected to raise rates at its early-November meeting; the Budget lands first.
- Euro crosses: EUR/GBP fell below 0.8400 for the first time since May last year, and EUR/JPY neared 175.00 (MUFG).
Market Snapshot: Weekly Close, 23 October 2026
USD/JPY US Dollar / Japanese Yen
156.806
-1.170-0.74% week
Range 156.073–158.604
153.55159.03
Sell near 158.00AUD/USD Australian Dollar / US Dollar
0.70362
+0.00902+1.30% week
Range 0.69548–0.70384
0.68700.7175
Buy near 0.6970EUR/USD Euro / US Dollar
1.12031
-0.00358-0.32% week
Range 1.11803–1.12607
1.11001.1377
Sell near 1.1255GBP/USD British Pound / US Dollar
1.33708
+0.00492+0.37% week
Range 1.32951–1.34191
1.31501.3600
Buy near 1.3265USD/CAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
1.40062
-0.01326-0.94% week
Range 1.39684–1.41342
1.38821.4134
Sell near 1.4035USD/CHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc
0.82491
+0.00093+0.11% week
Range 0.81913–0.82702
0.81330.8395
Buy near 0.8200- Dollar index
- 101.7
- Near three-week lows after a second weekly loss
- US 10-year yield
- 5.00%
- Down from about 5.08% at the start of the week
- French 10-year yield
- 5.04%
- High of 5.14% on Thursday 22 Oct
- Dutch gas
- €81/MWh
- Euro area energy inflation at 18.8%
Trade Setups for the Week
| Pair | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | Short | 1.4035 | 1.4100 | 1.3949 | 1.3882 | 1.3 / 2.4 | High |
| USD/JPY | Short | 158.00 | 159.10 | 156.07 | 153.55 | 1.8 / 4.0 | Medium |
| AUD/USD | Long | 0.6970 | 0.6925 | 0.7039 | 0.7175 | 1.5 / 4.6 | Medium |
| EUR/USD | Short | 1.1255 | 1.1310 | 1.1180 | 1.1100 | 1.4 / 2.8 | Medium |
| USD/CHF | Long | 0.8200 | 0.8150 | 0.8270 | 0.8395 | 1.4 / 3.9 | Medium |
| GBP/USD | Long | 1.3265 | 1.3190 | 1.3404 | 1.3600 | 1.9 / 4.5 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to target 1 and target 2, divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Key Market Drivers
The Fed is expected to hold, so tone decides the dollar
Fed funds stand at 3.75–4.00% after a 25 bps hike in September under Chair Warsh. A hotter inflation reading since then and a run of cautious speeches point to a pause, which TD Economics notes sits awkwardly with Warsh's inflation-fighting rhetoric. Hawkish dissents cannot be ruled out. Dissent and the wording on December are the two surprises the market can still price.
Key events: Wednesday 28 October, decision at 18:00 GMT and press conference at 18:30 GMT; Friday 30 October, speeches by Musalem and Daly.
Canada's decision is the live one
The BoC has held 2.25% for a year while weighing oil-driven inflation against pressure from the US trade war. Economists have swung from a hold to a hike this week, with a second increase seen by March. Oil stays elevated amid the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz disruption, which would support the Canadian dollar if the Bank moves.
Key events: Wednesday 28 October, decision at 13:45 GMT with the quarterly Monetary Policy Report.
Energy costs and French stress weigh on the euro
Euro area energy inflation has reached 18.8% (National Bank of Canada), and France's composite PMI fell to 48.4 in October. Those pressures make the ECB's task harder: TD expects an unchanged rate on Thursday, with communication more important than the decision, since tighter financing conditions could temper the need for further hikes.
Key events: Monday 26 October, Ifo at 09:00 GMT; Thursday 29 October, ECB at 13:15 GMT and press conference at 13:45 GMT; Friday 30 October, euro area GDP at 10:00 GMT.
Risk tone and the Budget steer the yen and sterling
Technology-sector valuation worries pushed the Nasdaq composite down 2.6% on Thursday, its lowest close since September, and the yen's link to equities has strengthened. For sterling, the Autumn Budget is the first test, and no surprises would favour the pound. Australian CPI and the RBNZ decision feed the Aussie before London opens, with Governor Bullock speaking later on Wednesday.
Key events: Wednesday 28 October, Budget at 12:30 GMT; Thursday 29 October, Tokyo CPI at 23:30 GMT; Friday 30 October, BoJ around 03:00 GMT.
EUR/USD at 1.1180 and USD/CAD at 1.4040 mark the two lines most exposed to the central-bank run. A weekly close beyond either would change the picture for the dollar.
Fed Scenario Analysis
Consensus is a hold; the prior decision was a 25 bps hike in September. The decision is due on Wednesday 28 October at 18:00 GMT, with the press conference at 18:30 GMT.
Hawkish hold: dissent or a clear December signal
Higher yield expectations lift the dollar across the board.
- USD/JPY158.03, then 159.03
- AUD/USD0.6966, then 0.6870
- EUR/USD1.1180, then 1.1100
- GBP/USD1.3256, then 1.3150
- USD/CAD1.4040, then 1.4134
- USD/CHF0.8270, then 0.8395
Dovish hold: pause with softer guidance
Lower yield expectations extend the dollar's recent weakness.
- USD/JPY156.07, then 153.55
- AUD/USD0.7039, then 0.7175
- EUR/USD1.1260, then 1.1377
- GBP/USD1.3404, then 1.3600
- USD/CAD1.3949, then 1.3882
- USD/CHF0.8190, then 0.8133
USD/JPY | US Dollar / Japanese Yen
USD/JPY Outlook: Yen Firms Beneath the 158.03 Average Before the BoJ
156.806 -1.170 (-0.74%) week Range 156.073–158.604
Outlook: Bias is lower while 158.03 caps rallies. The pair met sellers near 158.60 early in the week and closed beneath the 158.03 average after a risk-off Friday reached 156.07. The zone to work from is 157.90–158.03, with the channel floor near 153.55 the level that would test the wider uptrend.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 153.55
- Support 1
- 156.07
- Resistance 1
- 158.03
- Resistance 2
- 159.03
Weekly chart structure
- Trend: a rising channel since spring 2025; the July peak near 164 marked the upper limit and price now sits mid-channel.
- Averages: 159.028 and 158.032 sit above price, while 153.552 below aligns with the channel floor.
- Candle: bearish, opened 157.904, tested 158.604 and closed 0.74% lower in the lower half of its range.
- Momentum: RSI 46.26 sits under its 49.03 signal line and below 50.
Key technical levels
The 158.03 and 159.03 averages form the resistance band; a weekly close above 159.03 would restore the upward channel. The week's low of 156.07 is first support, and a close beneath it opens the 153.55 average and channel floor.
Fundamental drivers
BoJ guidance
Swaps leave the October meeting almost fully priced for a hold, so wording on December is the variable. Firmer language would pull the pair towards support, while a cautious tone would let rallies reach the averages.
Tokyo inflation
Tokyo CPI arrives six hours before the BoJ announcement. A reading above expectations would reinforce tightening bets and add weight to the yen, which has already been supported by risk aversion.
USD/JPY trade setup
ShortMedium conviction- Entry
- 158.00
- Stop loss
- 159.10
- Target 1
- 156.07
- Target 2
- 153.55
Risk 110 pips. Reward:risk 1.8 to target 1, 4.0 to target 2.
Rationale: Rejection below two overhead averages, risk-driven yen demand and December BoJ pricing favour selling strength; the 158.03–159.03 band defines the risk.
Invalidation: A daily close above 159.10. A hawkish Fed hold that lifts Treasury yields is the main risk.
AUD/USD | Australian Dollar / US Dollar
AUD/USD Outlook: Aussie Rebounds From Trendline Support Below 0.7039
0.70362 +0.00902 (+1.30%) week Range 0.69548–0.70384
Outlook: Bias is higher while 0.6966 holds. The pair rebounded from the rising trendline and closed within a pip of the 0.7039 average after a week's low of 0.6955. Pullbacks into 0.6966–0.6975 are the zone to work from, and a close above 0.7039 would open the upper trendline.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.6870
- Support 1
- 0.6966
- Resistance 1
- 0.7039
- Resistance 2
- 0.7175
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a rising trendline from late 2025 and a falling upper line from the spring high form a narrowing triangle.
- Averages: 0.70388 and 0.69657 bracket price, while the 0.66894 average sits well below.
- Candle: bullish, opened 0.69695, low 0.69548, closed 1.30% higher, the strongest weekly gain of the six pairs.
- Momentum: RSI 50.66 remains under its 54.10 signal line, so momentum is neutral.
Key technical levels
0.6966 is where the average meets the trendline; a weekly close below it exposes 0.6870, the August swing low. 0.7039 is the first barrier, and a weekly close above it points towards 0.7175 on the upper trendline.
Fundamental drivers
Domestic inflation
September CPI is due at 00:30 GMT on Wednesday. MUFG notes markets have raised the probability of an RBA hike, so a firm print would reinforce that repricing, while a soft one would test support.
Dollar and rates
The RBNZ and Governor Bullock both feature on Wednesday, with producer prices at 00:30 GMT on Friday. The Fed decision then sets the dollar side: a dovish hold would extend the rebound.
AUD/USD trade setup
LongMedium conviction- Entry
- 0.6970
- Stop loss
- 0.6925
- Target 1
- 0.7039
- Target 2
- 0.7175
Risk 45 pips. Reward:risk 1.5 to target 1, 4.6 to target 2.
Rationale: A rebound from the trendline and average, rising RBA hike pricing and a softer dollar favour buying weakness; neutral RSI caps conviction.
Invalidation: A daily close below 0.6925. Hawkish Fed guidance would revive dollar demand.
EUR/USD | Euro / US Dollar
EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Presses the Channel Floor Near 1.1180
1.12031 -0.00358 (-0.32%) week Range 1.11803–1.12607
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.1260 caps. The euro sits at the lower edge of its falling channel after a week of energy-cost and French bond stress. With RSI near oversold, rallies into 1.1255–1.1260 are the zone to work from, and 1.1180 decides whether the decline extends.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.1100
- Support 1
- 1.1180
- Resistance 1
- 1.1260
- Resistance 2
- 1.1377
Weekly chart structure
- Trend: a falling channel since the January peak near 1.2080, with price pressing its floor.
- Averages: 1.15831, 1.14472 and 1.13774 all sit above price.
- Candle: small-bodied, opened 1.11953, high 1.12607, low 1.11803, closed 0.32% lower on the week.
- Momentum: RSI 35.46 is below its 44.83 signal line and approaching oversold territory.
Key technical levels
1.1180 is the week's low and the channel floor; a weekly close beneath it opens 1.1100. 1.1260 is the week's high, and 1.1377 is the first average, above which the channel itself would come under challenge.
Fundamental drivers
Rate differential
National Bank of Canada sees EUR/USD at 1.10 by year-end, citing the US-German rate gap, elevated US yields and a swing from net long to net short positioning among speculators.
ECB communication
A hold is the base case, so the guidance on December matters most. A message that tighter financing limits the need to hike would add pressure; a firm tone would trigger short covering.
EUR/USD trade setup
ShortMedium conviction- Entry
- 1.1255
- Stop loss
- 1.1310
- Target 1
- 1.1180
- Target 2
- 1.1100
Risk 55 pips. Reward:risk 1.4 to target 1, 2.8 to target 2.
Rationale: A falling channel, three averages overhead and French bond stress favour selling strength; near-oversold RSI argues for taking profit if momentum fades.
Invalidation: A daily close above 1.1310. A dovish Fed hold could trigger short covering.
GBP/USD | British Pound / US Dollar
GBP/USD Outlook: Sterling Defends the 1.3256 Average Ahead of the Budget
1.33708 +0.00492 (+0.37%) week Range 1.32951–1.34191
Outlook: Bias is neutral to firmer while 1.3256 holds. Sterling rebounded from the rising trendline and closed just under the 1.3390 average, inside a triangle that has narrowed since January. Pullbacks towards 1.3256–1.3270 are the zone to work from, with the Budget the swing factor.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3150
- Support 1
- 1.3256
- Resistance 1
- 1.3404
- Resistance 2
- 1.3600
Weekly chart structure
- Triangle: a falling upper line from the January high near 1.3850 meets a rising lower line from early 2025.
- Averages: 1.34043 and 1.33901 sit above price, with 1.32564 below.
- Candle: bullish, opened 1.33051, reached 1.34191 and closed 0.37% higher after holding above 1.3295.
- Momentum: RSI 49.00 sits just under its 49.94 signal line, a neutral reading.
Key technical levels
1.3256 is the average and trendline zone; a weekly close under 1.3150, the swing low, would break the triangle. 1.3404 is the first resistance, and a weekly close above it exposes 1.3600 on the upper line.
Fundamental drivers
Autumn Budget
The statement lands at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday. FXStreet notes that an absence of surprises would be good news for the pound, so fiscal credibility rather than headline measures is the test.
BoE path
The BoE has yet to begin raising rates, and Reuters polling expects a hike in early November. BoE member Mills speaks on Friday, which could refine that pricing.
GBP/USD trade setup
LongLow conviction- Entry
- 1.3265
- Stop loss
- 1.3190
- Target 1
- 1.3404
- Target 2
- 1.3600
Risk 75 pips. Reward:risk 1.9 to target 1, 4.5 to target 2.
Rationale: Support at the average and trendline, BoE hike expectations and a softer dollar favour buying weakness; neutral RSI and Budget risk keep conviction low.
Invalidation: A daily close below 1.3190. A poorly received Budget is the main risk.
USD/CAD | US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
USD/CAD Outlook: Failed Breakout Leaves the Pair Capped at 1.4040
1.40062 -0.01326 (-0.94%) week Range 1.39684–1.41342
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.4040 caps. The pair reversed from above the falling trendline, erasing most of the prior week's breakout as hike expectations for the BoC rose. Rallies into 1.4035–1.4040 are the zone to work from, with Wednesday's decision the test.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3882
- Support 1
- 1.3949
- Resistance 1
- 1.4040
- Resistance 2
- 1.4134
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a triangle between the 2025 high near 1.4800 and a rising line from spring; last week's breakout failed.
- Averages: 1.40399, 1.39486 and 1.38820; price sits between the first two.
- Candle: bearish, opened 1.41195, high 1.41342, closed at 1.40062, the largest weekly loss of the six pairs.
- Momentum: RSI 50.99 slipped under its 53.42 signal line, a neutral reading.
Key technical levels
1.4040 is the first resistance and the nearest average; 1.4134 is the week's high and the trendline, where a weekly close would revive the breakout. 1.3949 and 1.3882 frame support, and a close under 1.3882 breaks the triangle floor.
Fundamental drivers
Oil and growth
Elevated oil supports Canada's terms of trade, yet the economy remains exposed to the US trade war. Dissenting views remain: RBC and Scotiabank earlier expected a hold, and National Bank sees room for 1.43 by year-end.
Fed overlap
The BoC decision at 13:45 GMT comes more than four hours before the Fed. A Canadian reaction can therefore reverse in the evening, so the daily close matters more than the first move.
USD/CAD trade setup
ShortHigh conviction- Entry
- 1.4035
- Stop loss
- 1.4100
- Target 1
- 1.3949
- Target 2
- 1.3882
Risk 65 pips. Reward:risk 1.3 to target 1, 2.4 to target 2.
Rationale: A failed trendline breakout, a reversal candle and a likely BoC hike with firm oil favour selling rallies beneath the 1.4040 average.
Invalidation: A daily close above 1.4100. A BoC hold would remove the support for the Canadian dollar.
USD/CHF | US Dollar / Swiss Franc
USD/CHF Outlook: Dollar-Franc Holds Above the 0.8190 Average After Breakout
0.82491 +0.00093 (+0.11%) week Range 0.81913–0.82702
Outlook: Bias is higher while 0.8190 holds. The pair broke its falling trendline in August and has consolidated near 0.8250 as the franc drew some risk-off demand. Pullbacks into 0.8190–0.8200 are the zone to work from, with 0.8270 the first resistance.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8133
- Support 1
- 0.8190
- Resistance 1
- 0.8270
- Resistance 2
- 0.8395
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a falling trendline from early 2025 was broken in August, and a rising line from the January low supports the recovery.
- Averages: 0.81902, 0.81334 and 0.79791 rise in order beneath price.
- Candle: small and bullish, opened 0.82398, high 0.82702, low 0.81913, closed 0.11% higher.
- Momentum: RSI 61.01 is above its 59.57 signal line, constructive but below overbought.
Key technical levels
0.8190 is both the week's low and the nearest average; a weekly close below 0.8133 would reopen a retest of the broken trendline. 0.8270 is the week's high, and a close above it opens 0.8395, the September high.
Fundamental drivers
Fed and yields
The calendar carries no major Swiss release, so the pair follows US yields and the Fed. A dovish hold would test 0.8190, while a hawkish one would extend the move towards 0.8270.
Euro spillover
Euro weakness against the franc often reflects safe-haven flows, which can cap USD/CHF rallies. French bond stress is the channel to watch around the ECB decision on Thursday.
USD/CHF trade setup
LongMedium conviction- Entry
- 0.8200
- Stop loss
- 0.8150
- Target 1
- 0.8270
- Target 2
- 0.8395
Risk 50 pips. Reward:risk 1.4 to target 1, 3.9 to target 2.
Rationale: A trendline breakout, rising averages and constructive RSI favour buying pullbacks; safe-haven franc demand is the offsetting risk.
Invalidation: A daily close below 0.8150. A sharp risk-off move would favour the franc.
Economic Calendar: 26–30 October 2026
| Date | Event | Market | Impact | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 GMT | German Ifo Business Climate (October) | EUR/USD | Medium | Sentiment read ahead of the ECB; 1.1180 in view |
| 14:00 GMT | US Consumer Confidence (October) | USD pairs | Medium | Last major US survey before the Fed |
| 00:30 GMT | Australian CPI (September) | AUD/USD | High | Shapes RBA hike pricing; 0.7039 in play |
| 01:00 GMT | RBNZ rate decision | AUD/USD | Medium | Markets lean towards a hike; read-across to the Aussie |
| 12:30 GMT | UK Autumn Budget | GBP/USD | High | Sterling reaction between 1.3256 and 1.3404 |
| 13:45 GMT | BoC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report, hike to 2.50% expected by most economists | USD/CAD | High | 1.4040 resistance, 1.3949 support |
| 18:00 GMT | Fed rate decision, hold expected; press conference at 18:30 GMT | All USD pairs | High | Guidance on December decides the dollar |
| 12:30 GMT | US advance Q3 GDP and core PCE inflation (September) | USD pairs | High | A hot core reading would revive December hike pricing |
| 13:15 GMT | ECB rate decision, hold expected; press conference at 13:45 GMT | EUR/USD | High | Channel floor at 1.1180 under test |
| 23:30 GMT | Tokyo CPI (October) | USD/JPY | Medium | Feeds December BoJ pricing |
| 03:00 GMT | BoJ rate decision (approximate time), hold expected | USD/JPY | High | 158.03 caps; 156.07 supports |
| 10:00 GMT | Euro area GDP, third-quarter flash | EUR/USD | Medium | Growth check after weaker PMI surveys |
Conclusion
Central banks set the theme for the week. With the Fed, ECB and BoJ expected to hold, direction depends on guidance, and the BoC is the one genuine rate event. A hawkish Fed would test the dollar's recent softness, while a dovish one would extend it; a hold from the BoC would change the Canadian view.
On conviction, USD/CAD ranks first, followed by USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD and USD/CHF at medium, with GBP/USD last because the Budget and BoE pricing pull in different directions.
We treat every level as conditional, let the event windows pass before adding exposure and size positions so that a stop-out is affordable. Spreads can widen sharply around the Fed and ECB announcements.
| Pair | Bias | Key level | Targets | Invalidation | Principal risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Sell near 158.00 | 158.03 | 156.07 / 153.55 | Above 159.10 | Hawkish Fed, higher yields |
| AUD/USD | Buy near 0.6970 | 0.6966 | 0.7039 / 0.7175 | Below 0.6925 | Hot Fed guidance |
| EUR/USD | Sell near 1.1255 | 1.1260 | 1.1180 / 1.1100 | Above 1.1310 | Short covering from oversold |
| GBP/USD | Buy near 1.3265 | 1.3256 | 1.3404 / 1.3600 | Below 1.3190 | Budget disappointment |
| USD/CAD | Sell near 1.4035 | 1.4040 | 1.3949 / 1.3882 | Above 1.4100 | BoC hold surprise |
| USD/CHF | Buy near 0.8200 | 0.8190 | 0.8270 / 0.8395 | Below 0.8150 | Risk-off franc demand |
Trade USD/CAD, EUR/USD and USD/JPY and other forex with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which central banks meet this week?
Five meet between Wednesday and Friday: the RBNZ, BoC, Fed, ECB and BoJ. The BoC is the main live decision, while the others are expected to hold, so guidance carries most of the market impact.
Will the Fed change rates on 28 October?
Most analysts expect no change. The open question is whether Chair Warsh signals a December increase, as Citi and Pimco anticipate, and whether any members dissent in favour of acting now.
Why has the euro weakened?
Energy-driven inflation, French fiscal and political stress and softer PMI readings have combined to weigh on it, while elevated US yields favour the dollar. The ECB faces a harder balance between tightening and growth.
How does a Bank of Canada hike affect USD/CAD?
A hike usually narrows the rate gap with the United States and supports the Canadian dollar, pushing USD/CAD lower. A hold, after this week's repricing, would more likely reverse the recent decline.
How can traders manage risk in a central-bank week?
Reduce position size before announcements, avoid new entries in the minutes around a decision and allow for wider spreads. Use defined stops rather than adding exposure after an initial spike.
