Bitcoin Fights for the $76,650 Floor and Solana Hangs On at $92: 15:00 GMT JOLTS Could Break the Standoff | Technical Analysis – Crypto Report | 03 Nov 2026
Crypto Today | Tuesday 3 November 2026 | London session | Live as of 12:02 GMT
Bitcoin Fights for the $76,650 Floor and Solana Hangs On at $92: 15:00 GMT JOLTS Could Break the Standoff
Market Overview
Crypto is at a decision point at 12:02 GMT: bitcoin is sitting on its channel floor, Solana is clinging to a rising trendline at 92, and US JOLTS at 15:00 GMT is the first hard test of the day. Bitcoin is at 76,892 (about −1.8% over 24 hours), ether at 2,260.9, XRP at 1.25585, Solana at 92.25 and Tether at 0.99837. All four coins are slightly green since the 00:00 GMT open, but the pressure behind them has not eased: spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $398.6M on Monday after $643.3M on Friday, the Binance hack still hangs over sentiment, the Nasdaq 100 has fallen into correction, and traders price about a 74% chance of a December Fed hike.
The momentum picture is weak. Daily RSI readings of 36.09, 35.01, 38.66, 27.40 and 42.99 leave Solana as the only oversold name, so bitcoin and ether still have room to fall. The desk plan is to sell rallies in bitcoin, ether and Solana, buy XRP at its triangle floor and buy Tether back toward its peg. Every entry sits away from the market, so each idea needs a bounce or a dip to trigger. The clock matters: US open 14:30 GMT, JOLTS 15:00 GMT, AMD results from 21:00 GMT, first polls close 23:00 GMT, and the daily candles close at 00:00 GMT, where a close under 76,400 in bitcoin would turn the floor into a breakdown.
Key highlights
- Bitcoin: Price is 76,892, on the 76,650 average at the floor of a falling channel, with RSI 36.09.
- Ethereum: Price is 2,260.9 under all three averages (2,349.5 to 2,505.7), with RSI 35.01.
- XRP: Price is 1.25585 above a rising triangle floor near 1.21 and under three averages, with RSI 38.66.
- Solana: Price is 92.25 on a rising line it may be breaking, with RSI 27.40, the most oversold of the five.
- Tether: Price is 0.99837, about 0.16% under its peg, inside a falling channel with RSI 42.99.
What’s Moving Crypto Today
Bitcoin slips under $77,000 as the Binance fallout, ETF outflows and a chip rout continue
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $398.6M on Monday after $643.3M on Friday, their biggest outflow since June. Liquidations near $90M to $100M and a Nasdaq 100 in correction added to the pressure.
Source: crypto.news, CoinDesk, Reuters, 3 Nov 2026
Binance says it has replaced about 95% of the $6.3B stolen; the FBI blames North Korea’s TraderTraitor
About $3B is frozen, and Binance reopened withdrawals on 1 Nov. Customers pulled roughly $4.65B in the reopening against about $1.01B of deposits, and North Korea denies a role.
Source: Reuters, CNBC, Proactive Investors, Bloomberg, 3 Nov 2026
AI jitters hit global stocks while US midterm voting starts
Reuters has MSCI World down 0.26%, and the dollar index is near 101.7 with the 10-year yield at 4.91%. Polymarket gives about 77% odds of a Democratic sweep, a risk for AI-linked stocks.
Source: Reuters, Saxo, CNBC, 3 Nov 2026
Traders still price about a 74% chance of another Fed hike in December
The Fed raised rates in September. A strong JOLTS print would firm those odds and add to pressure on crypto.
Source: Admiral Markets, Analytics Insight, 3 Nov 2026
Ether holds 2,200 to 2,300 after $140M of ETF outflows on Monday
Cumulative US spot ETH ETF inflows have fallen to $12.1B. The Binance theft included 167,464 ETH in one transaction.
Source: FXStreet, SoSoValue, The Hacker News, 3 Nov 2026
XRP is pinned near $1.25 after a double-digit October drop
Analysts treat 1.25 as the key floor, with a long-liquidation cluster near 1.23. Ripple joined Tether and Circle in freezing hack-linked funds.
Source: FXStreet, Cryptonews.net, CoinTurk, 3 Nov 2026
Solana trades near $92 after sliding from about $126 in October
A Solflare staking incident, in which a validator operator lost keys, paused rewards. The wallet says user funds are safe and will compensate missed rewards.
Source: AMBCrypto, DailyCoin, Forklog, 3 Nov 2026
Tether has frozen over $1.5B of USDT tied to the Binance hack
Circle froze more than $800M of USDC. USDT trades about 0.16% under its peg, and the coverage found centres on the freezes, not on any redemption problem.
Source: CNBC, Reuters, crypto.news, 3 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in bitcoin, ether, XRP, Solana and Tether. All times are GMT.
- US stock open
- 14:30
- Tue 3 Nov, 14:30 GMT
- Crypto is tracking tech, so a weak open adds pressure to bitcoin and Solana
- US JOLTS job openings (September)
- 15:00
- Tue 3 Nov, 15:00 GMT
- Consensus about 7.13M against 7.079M. A strong print lifts hike bets and hits crypto; a weak one helps
- US close and AMD results
- 21:00
- Tue 3 Nov, from 21:00 GMT
- AMD reports after the bell and is the next test for the chip selloff
- Spot ETF flow data
- After 21:00
- Tue 3 Nov, after the US close
- Another large BTC or ETH outflow would confirm the institutional exit
- First US polls close
- 23:00
- Tue 3 Nov, 23:00 GMT
- Expect position-trimming into the close; a surprise result moves yields and the dollar
- Daily candle close
- 00:00
- Wed 4 Nov, 00:00 GMT
- A close under 76,400 in bitcoin or under the Solana line near 93 would confirm breakdowns
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana and Tether, valid until 22:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | Short | 78,300 | 79,700 | 76,400 | 75,000 | 1.4 / 2.4 | Medium |
| Ethereum (ETHUSD) | Short | 2,330 | 2,395 | 2,235 | 2,200 | 1.5 / 2.0 | Medium |
| XRP (XRPUSD) | Long | 1.2350 | 1.1900 | 1.2900 | 1.3100 | 1.2 / 1.7 | Low |
| Solana (SOLUSD) | Short | 96.00 | 99.00 | 90.00 | 86.00 | 2.0 / 3.3 | Medium |
| Tether (USDTUSD) | Long | 0.99790 | 0.99735 | 0.99869 | 0.99918 | 1.4 / 2.3 | Low |
Entry is the midpoint of each entry zone, and reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each instrument is in its section below. Prices are chart-feed prices at about 12:01 to 12:02 GMT on 3 November. Three ideas are shorts, so a strong JOLTS print would help them and hurt the XRP long. The Tether long is a peg-reversion trade, not a bet on crypto direction. The 15:00 GMT release can gap prices through the entries. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
JOLTS at 15:00 GMT, the chip selloff and Binance headlines are the swing factors for the rest of today.
Job openings above 7.13M, firmer yields and weaker tech: crypto breaks its floors
A strong print would revive Fed-hike bets and deepen the chip selloff, adding to ETF outflows.
- Bitcoin76,400, then 75,000
- Ethereum2,200, then 2,100
- XRP1.23, then 1.1975
- Solana90.00, then 86.00
- Tether0.99790, then 0.99750
Job openings under 7.13M and a steadier Nasdaq: crypto bounces toward resistance
A weak print would ease hike bets and let oversold names bounce, which is where the short entries sit.
- Bitcoin78,000, then 79,500
- Ethereum2,300, then 2,349.5
- XRP1.2945, then 1.3064
- Solana98.52, then 100.72
- Tether0.99869, then 0.99918
Binance and election headlines can arrive at any minute
New movement of stolen funds or another outflow spike would push bitcoin under 76,400, while a clean reserves update or large recoveries would lift it toward 78,000. The first polls close at 23:00 GMT, an hour before the daily candles close.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | Bitstamp feed
Bitcoin Analysis: Price Rests on the 76,650 Average at the Floor of a Falling Channel at 76,892
76,892 +218 (+0.28%) at about 12:02 GMT Previous close 76,674
Outlook: Bias is lower while 78,000 to 79,500 caps rallies. Bitcoin is near 76,900 after touching 76,268 today, as ETF outflows, liquidations and the chip selloff outweigh Binance’s pledge to cover the hack.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 75000
- Support 1
- 76400
- Resistance 1
- 78000
- Resistance 2
- 79500
- Price (76,892) is above the 76,650 average but under 80,266 and 81,886. Main catalysts: the US open at 14:30 GMT, JOLTS at 15:00 GMT and ETF flows after the US close.
- RSI 36.09 under its 41.76 average: weak, not yet oversold. A 4-hour close above 79,700 cancels the short; a 4-hour close under 76,400 targets 75,000, then 73,700.
Setup: Short at 78,300, stop 79,700, targets 76,400, 75,000 and 73,700. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.4 / 3.3, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 79,700, or a credible Binance recovery headline. Cancel if unfilled by 22:00 GMT today.
Ethereum (ETHUSD) | Bitstamp feed
Ethereum Analysis: Price Holds a 2,200 to 2,300 Range Under Three Averages at 2,260.9
2,260.9 +11.9 (+0.53%) at about 12:02 GMT Previous close 2,249.0
Outlook: Bias is lower while 2,330 to 2,350 caps rallies. Ether is near 2,261 after Monday’s $140M ETH ETF outflow, and the rising floor near 2,200 is the line to watch.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2100
- Support 1
- 2200
- Resistance 1
- 2300
- Resistance 2
- 2349.5
- Price (2,260.9) is under all three averages. Main catalysts: the US open at 14:30 GMT and JOLTS at 15:00 GMT.
- RSI 35.01 just under its 35.64 average: weak. A 4-hour close above 2,395 cancels the short; a break under 2,200 targets 2,100.
Setup: Short at 2,330, stop 2,395, targets 2,235, 2,200 and 2,100. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.0 / 3.5, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 2,395, or a risk-on rebound in tech at the open. Cancel if unfilled by 22:00 GMT today.
XRP (XRPUSD) | Bitstamp feed
XRP Analysis: Price Defends 1.25 Just Above a Rising Triangle Floor at 1.25585
1.25585 +0.00777 (+0.62%) at about 12:02 GMT Previous close 1.24808
Outlook: Bias is two-way with a lean lower below 1.2945. XRP is near 1.256 after a double-digit October drop, with buyers defending the 1.25 zone and ETF flows only mildly negative.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.1975
- Support 1
- 1.23
- Resistance 1
- 1.29446
- Resistance 2
- 1.30641
- Price (1.25585) is under all three averages. Main catalysts: Binance headlines, JOLTS at 15:00 GMT and a long-liquidation cluster near 1.23.
- RSI 38.66 under its 39.97 average: weak. A 4-hour close under 1.19 cancels the long; a break above 1.2945 targets 1.31, then 1.385.
Setup: Long at 1.2350, stop 1.1900, targets 1.2900, 1.3100 and 1.3850. Reward:risk 1.2 / 1.7 / 3.3, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 1.19, or a hawkish JOLTS surprise that sends bitcoin under 76,400. Cancel if unfilled by 22:00 GMT today.
Solana (SOLUSD) | Coinbase feed
Solana Analysis: Price Tests the Rising Line at 92.25 With RSI Oversold at 27.40
92.25 +0.42 (+0.46%) at about 12:02 GMT Previous close 91.83
Outlook: Bias is lower while 96 to 98.52 caps rallies, though the oversold RSI means bounces can be sharp. Solana is near 92 after sliding from about 126 in October, with a recent Solflare staking incident adding to the pressure.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 86
- Support 1
- 90
- Resistance 1
- 98.52
- Resistance 2
- 100.72
- Price (92.25) is under all three averages. A daily close under the rising line at 00:00 GMT would confirm the triangle break.
- RSI 27.40 under its 34.44 average: oversold. A 4-hour close above 99 cancels the short; a break under 90 targets 86, then 80.
Setup: Short at 96.00, stop 99.00, targets 90.00, 86.00 and 80.00. Reward:risk 2.0 / 3.3 / 5.3, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 99, or an oversold squeeze through 98.52. Cancel if unfilled by 22:00 GMT today.
Tether (USDTUSD) | CRYPTO feed
Tether Analysis: USDT Trades 0.16% Under Its Peg at 0.99837 Inside a Falling Channel
0.99837 −0.00007 (−0.01%) at about 12:02 GMT Previous close 0.99844
Outlook: Bias is a bounce toward 0.9987 while 0.9979 holds, though a peg trade carries event risk. USDT is near 0.9984 after Tether froze over $1.5B tied to the Binance hack.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.9975
- Support 1
- 0.9979
- Resistance 1
- 0.99869
- Resistance 2
- 0.99918
- Price (0.99837) is under all three averages, which sit 0.03% to 0.1% above. Main catalysts: Binance outflow data and any new freeze announcements.
- RSI 42.99 under its 43.13 average: neutral. A 4-hour close under 0.99735 cancels the long; a move through 0.99869 targets 0.99918, then 0.9999.
Setup: Long at 0.99790, stop 0.99735, targets 0.99869, 0.99918 and 0.99990. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.3 / 3.6, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 0.99735, or any issuer-side redemption headline. Cancel if unfilled by 22:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
ETF outflows, Fed-hike pricing and the chip selloff favour selling bounces: bitcoin near 78,300, ether near 2,330 and Solana near 96, with Solana’s oversold RSI arguing for patience. XRP is a low-conviction dip-buy near 1.235 at the triangle floor, and Tether is a low-conviction peg trade near 0.9979. The session risks are JOLTS at 15:00 GMT, AMD results from 21:00 GMT, ETF flows after the US close, the 23:00 GMT poll close and the 00:00 GMT candle close. A 4-hour close over 79,700 in bitcoin or under 1.19 in XRP would change the picture.
Trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana and Tether with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the crypto outlook for today?
Cautious. Bitcoin sits on its channel floor, Solana is testing a trendline, and US JOLTS at 15:00 GMT is the main scheduled test before the first polls close at 23:00 GMT.
Which crypto trade ideas are live today?
Short bitcoin, ether and Solana on rallies, a long in XRP at its triangle floor and a long in Tether back toward its peg, each with a stop and three targets.
What time are the key events in GMT?
The US stock open is at 14:30 GMT, JOLTS at 15:00 GMT, the US close and AMD results from 21:00 GMT, the first polls close at 23:00 GMT and the daily candles close at 00:00 GMT.
Why is bitcoin lower today?
Spot ETF outflows, leveraged liquidations, the Binance hack fallout and a chip-stock rout keep buyers away from the 78,000 to 79,500 resistance.
Is Tether holding its peg today?
USDT is at 0.99837, about 0.16% under $1. That is a small discount, and today’s coverage centres on freezes of hack-linked funds, not on redemption problems.
