Blue Sweep Hammers the Dollar to a One-Month Low: Franc and Yen Surge, Sterling Breaks Through 1.3450 and 15:00 GMT ISM Decides if the Selloff Holds | Technical Analysis – Forex report | 04 Nov 2026
Forex Today | Wednesday 4 November 2026 | London session
Blue Sweep Hammers the Dollar to a One-Month Low: Franc and Yen Surge, Sterling Breaks Through 1.3450 and 15:00 GMT ISM Decides if the Selloff Holds
Market Overview
Democrats have taken Congress and the dollar is paying for it: the index hit 101.27, a one-month low, in its worst session in a month, and the 13:15 GMT ADP and 15:00 GMT ISM prints decide whether this is a flush or the start of a trend. AP has called the Senate for the Democrats and Reuters reports they have captured the House too, stoking fears of tougher AI regulation, legislative gridlock and a smaller US growth premium. The dollar index is near 101.4 to 101.5 at 07:05 GMT, the 10-year yield has dropped about 5 basis points to roughly 4.91%, Nasdaq futures are sliding and Tokyo’s stock index fell 2.85%. Money has run straight into the safe havens: the franc jumped almost 1% and the yen about 0.7% in Asia, the biggest moves among the majors. USD/CHF (0.81750, −0.39%) stabbed under its channel floor to 0.81273 before buyers stepped in, USD/JPY (158.177, −0.31%) bounced from a 157.395 low off its fast average, and USD/CAD (1.39713, −0.28%) has slid back under the line it briefly broke. Sterling is the day’s standout: GBP/USD (1.34582, +0.33%) printed 1.34788, its highest since 16 September, with a Bank of England hike to 4.00% due tomorrow at 12:00 GMT. AUD/USD (0.69831, +0.24%) is only bouncing from a two-week low after yesterday’s split RBA hike, and EUR/CHF (0.91775, −0.10%) is pressing the top of a falling channel with RSI at 33.80. The bulls should not get carried away: ING argues the dollar still trades on the Fed, with a December hike priced near 73%, so a strong ADP or ISM could snap the move back fast.
The catalysts come in a rapid sequence, all in GMT: UK services PMI at 09:30, eurozone flash CPI at 10:00 (4.0% expected against 3.8%), US ADP at 13:15, ISM services at 15:00 and EIA crude stocks at 15:30, before the daily candles close at 22:00. Daily RSI readings of 53.42, 45.04, 33.80, 63.12, 38.40 and 40.37 show only EUR/CHF is near oversold, so there is room to run in either direction. The desk plan: sell rallies in USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and EUR/CHF, and buy the dip in GBP/USD. All five shorts need a bounce to trigger, so firm US data is the fuel, while the GBP/USD long needs a pullback to the broken trend line near 1.3415.
Key highlights
- USD/JPY: Price is 158.177, above the 157.944 medium average and the triangle top line, with RSI 53.42 and an intervention warning capping rallies near 159.00.
- AUD/USD: Price is 0.69831 inside a falling channel and under the 0.69949 fast average, with RSI 45.04.
- EUR/CHF: Price is 0.91775 at the top of a falling channel with RSI 33.80, the weakest of the six.
- GBP/USD: Price is 1.34582, above all three averages and the broken triangle line, with RSI 63.12, the strongest of the six.
- USD/CAD: Price is 1.39713 under all three averages with RSI 38.40, testing a rising floor near 1.3945.
- USD/CHF: Price is 0.81750 under the fast and medium averages, just above the 0.81566 slow average.
What’s Moving Forex Today
Dollar slides to a one-month low as Democrats capture Congress
The dollar index fell as much as 0.6% to 101.27 as the Democrats won the Senate and, per Reuters, the House. Analysts link the move to fears of tighter AI regulation that could slow US growth, and to a smaller chance of further tax cuts. CBA’s Carol Kong said a sweep could push the dollar lower still.
Source: Reuters via Investing.com, AP, 4 Nov 2026
Franc and yen lead the majors as the dollar posts its worst day in a month
Bloomberg reports the franc rose almost 1% and the yen about 0.7% in Asian trading, the biggest gains among major currencies, as investors reached for haven-like assets while Tokyo stocks fell 2.85%.
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, 4 Nov 2026
ING sees no structural dollar shift as the Fed story still drives, with ADP and ISM next
ING says the greenback continues to respond mainly to the Fed, which faces no immediate effect from the midterm result, and the market has roughly a 73% chance of a December hike priced. The US 10-year yield is near 4.91%, and ADP (13:15 GMT) and ISM services (15:00 GMT) are the first data checks on that view.
Source: ING via FXStreet, Reuters, 4 Nov 2026
Yen steadies near 158 as Tokyo reopens and intervention risk resurfaces
USD/JPY slipped from a near three-week high as fresh dollar selling met intervention risk, with Finance Minister Katayama having reminded markets that the joint FX statement with the US stands. The pair fell to 157.395 and recovered to about 158.18 as dollar selling eased.
Source: FXStreet, 4 Nov 2026
Sterling hits its highest since 16 September ahead of a priced Bank of England hike
GBP/USD rallied past 1.3450 as the dollar weakened and as fiscal worries eased after the UK budget. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BoE to raise Bank Rate to 4.00% from 3.75% at 12:00 GMT tomorrow, with money markets pricing three more hikes after that.
Source: FXStreet, Reuters, 4 Nov 2026
Swiss inflation at a two-year high keeps the franc bid and USD/CHF near seven-week lows
Swiss CPI rose to 1.5% y/y in October, its hottest in more than two years, which fuelled talk that the SNB, at 0%, may consider hikes sooner. USD/CHF hit 0.8149 yesterday and 0.81273 today.
Source: FXStreet, 3–4 Nov 2026
Eurozone flash CPI at 10:00 GMT is expected at 4.0% as the ECB leans toward a December hike
The ECB’s deposit rate is 2.50%, Lagarde has called a December hike likely, and Germany’s Nagel said one will probably be needed. A hot print would support EUR/CHF in the short run; France’s negative Fitch outlook is the counterweight.
Source: FXStreet, Forex Factory, 4 Nov 2026
Loonie holds near 1.397 as oil drifts lower on US-Iran talks and the EIA report looms
Brent is near $103 to $104 and WTI near $96 after Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it is far from a deal with the US, while Qatar steps up mediation. The API reported a 5.3 million barrel draw, and the official EIA figure follows at 15:30 GMT. The BoC’s hawkish tone, after its 2.50% hike, offsets weaker crude.
Source: Reuters, Investing.com, IC Markets, 4 Nov 2026
Aussie lags peers after a split RBA hike and a risk-off open
The RBA lifted its cash rate by 25 bp to 4.85% in a 6–3 vote and dropped its reference to further hikes, per ING. AUD/USD touched a two-week low near 0.6954 today, and the risk-sensitive currency is lagging the franc and yen, which are the day’s strongest majors.
Source: FXStreet, ING, Bloomberg, 4 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. All times are GMT.
- UK services PMI (October, final)
- 09:30
- Wed 4 Nov, 09:30 GMT
- Forecast 53.1, unchanged. A firm print adds to the BoE-hike case and favours buying GBP/USD dips toward 1.3415.
- Eurozone flash CPI (October, y/y)
- 10:00
- Wed 4 Nov, 10:00 GMT
- Forecast 4.0% against 3.8% prior, core 2.5%. A hot print supports the ECB-hike case and a bounce in EUR/CHF toward 0.9200 to 0.9210.
- US ADP employment (October)
- 13:15
- Wed 4 Nov, 13:15 GMT
- Forecast about 67K to 69K against 90K prior. A strong reading backs the dollar rebound in USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF; a weak one extends the dollar’s slide.
- US ISM services PMI (October)
- 15:00
- Wed 4 Nov, 15:00 GMT
- Forecast 54.8 against 54.9, with prices paid watched near 75. A hot print revives Fed-hike bets and lifts US yields; a soft one favours AUD/USD and GBP/USD.
- EIA crude inventories
- 15:30
- Wed 4 Nov, 15:30 GMT
- Follows an API draw of 5.3 million barrels, with Brent near $103 to $104. A draw supports the loonie and pressures USD/CAD; a build removes that support.
- Daily close; Democrats’ sweep in focus
- 22:00
- Wed 4 Nov, 22:00 GMT
- Daily candles close at 22:00 GMT, which settles the USD/CHF channel-floor test and the GBP/USD triangle break. The dollar’s reaction to the final House count is the swing factor.
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY (USDJPY) | Short | 158.650 | 159.200 | 157.950 | 157.400 | 1.3 / 2.3 | Medium |
| AUD/USD (AUDUSD) | Short | 0.7010 | 0.7060 | 0.6955 | 0.6900 | 1.1 / 2.2 | Medium |
| EUR/CHF (EURCHF) | Short | 0.9210 | 0.9255 | 0.9150 | 0.9100 | 1.3 / 2.4 | Low |
| GBP/USD (GBPUSD) | Long | 1.3415 | 1.3365 | 1.3478 | 1.3530 | 1.3 / 2.3 | Medium |
| USD/CAD (USDCAD) | Short | 1.4025 | 1.4085 | 1.3950 | 1.3880 | 1.3 / 2.4 | Low |
| USD/CHF (USDCHF) | Short | 0.8225 | 0.8275 | 0.8150 | 0.8110 | 1.5 / 2.3 | Medium |
Entry is the midpoint of each entry zone, and reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each pair is in its section below. Prices are feed prices from the daily charts at about 07:04 to 07:06 GMT on 4 November. Every short entry sits above the current price and needs a bounce to trigger, and the GBP/USD long sits below the market and needs a pullback; the 13:15 GMT ADP and 15:00 GMT ISM releases can gap prices through any of them. Four of the six ideas (short USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, and long GBP/USD) are dollar-negative, so a lasting dollar rebound would hit them together, while the AUD/USD short is the lone dollar-positive idea. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
Eurozone CPI at 10:00 GMT, ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT are the swing factors for the rest of today.
ADP and ISM above forecast with firmer yields: the dollar rebounds from its one-month low
Strong readings would revive Fed-hike bets, lift USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF toward resistance, and push AUD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/CHF toward support as risk tone cools.
- USD/JPY158.74, then 159.14
- AUD/USD0.6955, then 0.6900
- EUR/CHF0.9148, then 0.9100
- GBP/USD1.3415, then 1.3387
- USD/CAD1.4000, then 1.4039
- USD/CHF0.8200, then 0.8227
ADP and ISM below forecast with lower yields: the dollar slide extends
Weak readings would pull yields lower, let AUD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/CHF test their resistance and send USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF back toward support.
- USD/JPY157.94, then 157.36
- AUD/USD0.6995, then 0.7031
- EUR/CHF0.9200, then 0.9250
- GBP/USD1.3479, then 1.3500
- USD/CAD1.3945, then 1.3870
- USD/CHF0.8157, then 0.8127
Eurozone CPI comes first, at 10:00 GMT
A print at or above 4.0% would back the ECB-hike case and lift EUR/CHF toward 0.9200 to 0.9210, the entry area for the short. A reading near or below 3.8% would let EUR/CHF retest 0.9148 and then 0.9100 as the franc stays bid.
USD/JPY (USDJPY) | FXCM feed
USD/JPY Analysis: Price Bounces off the Fast Average and Holds Above the Triangle Top Line at 158.18
158.177 −0.495 (−0.31%) at about 07:05 GMT Previous close 158.672
Outlook: Bias is lower while 158.74 to 159.14 caps rallies. USD/JPY fell to 157.395 in Asia as the dollar sank and Tokyo stocks dropped 2.85%, then recovered to 158.18; intervention warnings from Japan still hang over any push toward 159.00.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 157.363
- Support 1
- 157.944
- Resistance 1
- 158.742
- Resistance 2
- 159.135
- Price (158.177) is above the 157.944 medium and 157.363 fast averages and under the 159.135 slow average. Main catalyst: ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT, with US 10-year yields near 4.90%.
- RSI 53.42 above its 50.73 average: neutral. A 4-hour close above 159.20 opens 160.00; a break under 157.363 targets 156.40, the triangle floor.
Setup: Short at 158.650, stop 159.200, targets 157.950, 157.400 and 156.400. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.3 / 4.1, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 159.20, or strong ADP and ISM readings that lift US yields. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
AUD/USD (AUDUSD) | OANDA feed
AUD/USD Analysis: Aussie Bounces Inside a Falling Channel, Still Under Its Fast Average
0.69831 +0.00170 (+0.24%) at about 07:04 GMT Previous close 0.69661
Outlook: Bias is lower while 0.7010 caps rallies. AUD/USD is near 0.6983 after a two-week low of 0.69544 today; the RBA’s split 6–3 hike to 4.85% dropped its reference to more tightening, and the risk-sensitive Aussie is lagging the other majors.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.69000
- Support 1
- 0.69544
- Resistance 1
- 0.69949
- Resistance 2
- 0.70312
- Price (0.69831) is under the 0.69949 fast, 0.70312 slow and 0.70556 medium averages. Main catalyst: US ADP at 13:15 GMT, ISM services at 15:00 GMT and the tone of equities after the Nasdaq sell-off.
- RSI 45.04 under its 49.24 average: soft. A close above 0.7060 cancels the short; a break under 0.6954 targets 0.6900.
Setup: Short at 0.7010, stop 0.7060, targets 0.6955, 0.6900 and 0.6845. Reward:risk 1.1 / 2.2 / 3.3, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 0.7060, or a weak ADP and ISM print that keeps the dollar sliding. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
EUR/CHF (EURCHF) | OANDA feed
EUR/CHF Analysis: Price Presses the Top of a Falling Channel as the Franc Leads, RSI Near Oversold
0.91775 −0.00095 (−0.10%) at about 07:05 GMT Previous close 0.91870
Outlook: Bias is lower while 0.9200 to 0.9250 caps rallies. EUR/CHF is at 0.9178 with the franc the day’s strongest currency, but RSI near 34 and eurozone flash CPI at 10:00 GMT (4.0% expected against 3.8%) leave room for a bounce first.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.91000
- Support 1
- 0.91482
- Resistance 1
- 0.92000
- Resistance 2
- 0.92505
- Price (0.91775) is far under the 0.92505 fast, 0.93176 slow and 0.93465 medium averages. Main catalyst: eurozone flash CPI at 10:00 GMT, ECB hike talk (Lagarde and Nagel point to December) and Swiss franc demand.
- RSI 33.80 under its 34.22 average: weak and near oversold. A close above 0.9255 cancels the short; a break under 0.9148 targets 0.9100.
Setup: Short at 0.9210, stop 0.9255, targets 0.9150, 0.9100 and 0.9040. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.4 / 3.8, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 0.9255, or a hot eurozone CPI print that lifts ECB-hike bets further. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
GBP/USD (GBPUSD) | FXCM feed
GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling Breaks Above the Triangle Top Line and Rises Over All Three Averages
1.34582 +0.00445 (+0.33%) at about 07:05 GMT Previous close 1.34137
Outlook: Bias is higher while 1.3415 holds on dips. GBP/USD touched 1.34788 today, its highest since 16 September, with a BoE hike to 4.00% expected tomorrow at 12:00 GMT and UK services PMI due at 09:30 GMT.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.33868
- Support 1
- 1.34150
- Resistance 1
- 1.34788
- Resistance 2
- 1.35000
- Price (1.34582) is above the 1.33868 medium, 1.33664 slow and 1.33279 fast averages. Main catalyst: UK final services PMI at 09:30 GMT (53.1 expected), a priced BoE hike and the dollar after the US midterms.
- RSI 63.12 above its 55.22 average: firm but not stretched. A 4-hour close below 1.3365 cancels the long; a break above 1.3479 opens 1.3500, then 1.3565.
Setup: Long at 1.3415, stop 1.3365, targets 1.3478, 1.3530 and 1.3565. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.3 / 3.0, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close below 1.3365, or strong ADP and ISM readings that push the dollar sharply higher. The entry sits below the market and needs a pullback to the broken line. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
USD/CAD (USDCAD) | OANDA feed
USD/CAD Analysis: Price Falls Back Under the Broken Top Line and Tests the Rising Floor Below All Three Averages
1.39713 −0.00389 (−0.28%) at about 07:06 GMT Previous close 1.40102
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.4039 caps rallies, though the loonie is held back by cheaper oil. USD/CAD is at 1.3971 after failing to hold a push above its falling line, with Brent near $103 to $104 and the EIA stock report at 15:30 GMT.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.38700
- Support 1
- 1.39450
- Resistance 1
- 1.40386
- Resistance 2
- 1.40882
- Price (1.39713) is under the 1.40386 slow, 1.40459 medium and 1.40882 fast averages. Main catalyst: oil after the US-Iran headlines, Canada’s trade balance at 13:30 GMT and the EIA report at 15:30 GMT; the BoC is at 2.50% after its late-October hike.
- RSI 38.40 under its 40.98 average: weak. A close above 1.4085 cancels the short; a break under 1.3945 targets 1.3870.
Setup: Short at 1.4025, stop 1.4085, targets 1.3950, 1.3880 and 1.3800. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.4 / 3.8, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 1.4085, or a sharp oil drop that keeps eroding loonie support. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
USD/CHF (USDCHF) | FXCM feed
USD/CHF Analysis: Price Dips Under the Rising Channel Floor Before Bouncing, Under the Fast and Medium Averages
0.81750 −0.00317 (−0.39%) at about 07:06 GMT Previous close 0.82067
Outlook: Bias is lower while 0.8227 caps rallies. USD/CHF dipped to 0.81273 today as the franc rose almost 1% in Asia, and it now sits at 0.8175 just above the 0.8157 slow average, with Swiss inflation at a two-year high supporting the franc.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.81273
- Support 1
- 0.81566
- Resistance 1
- 0.82266
- Resistance 2
- 0.82626
- Price (0.81750) is under the 0.82626 fast and 0.82266 medium averages and just above the 0.81566 slow average. Main catalyst: the dollar’s reaction to ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT; Swiss CPI of 1.5% in October keeps SNB-hike talk alive.
- RSI 40.37 under its 47.54 average: weak. A close above 0.8275 cancels the short; a daily close under the 0.8135 channel floor targets 0.8110, then 0.8050.
Setup: Short at 0.8225, stop 0.8275, targets 0.8150, 0.8110 and 0.8050. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.3 / 3.5, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 0.8275, or a strong ISM print that sends the dollar broadly higher. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
The dollar is heavy after the Democratic sweep but not broken, so we prefer selling bounces into resistance in USD/JPY near 158.65, USD/CHF near 0.8225 and AUD/USD near 0.7010 at medium conviction, and EUR/CHF near 0.9210 and USD/CAD near 1.4025 at low conviction. The exception is GBP/USD, where price has broken higher and a dip toward 1.3415 is a buying area at medium conviction. The session risks are UK PMI at 09:30 GMT, eurozone CPI at 10:00 GMT, ADP at 13:15 GMT, ISM services at 15:00 GMT, EIA stocks at 15:30 GMT and the 22:00 GMT close. A 4-hour close over 159.20 in USD/JPY or under 1.3365 in GBP/USD would change the picture.
Trade USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the forex outlook for today?
Cautious with a soft dollar bias. The dollar index is near 101.4 to 101.5 after a one-month low of 101.27, and UK PMI at 09:30 GMT, eurozone CPI at 10:00 GMT, US ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT are the main scheduled tests.
Which forex trade ideas are live today?
Short USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/CHF on rallies, and long GBP/USD on a pullback, each with a stop and three targets.
What time are the key events in GMT?
UK services PMI at 09:30 GMT, eurozone flash CPI at 10:00 GMT, US ADP at 13:15 GMT, ISM services at 15:00 GMT, EIA crude stocks at 15:30 GMT and the daily close at 22:00 GMT.
Why is the dollar weaker today?
Democrats won the Senate and, per Reuters, the House, which raised fears of tighter AI regulation and gridlock, sent US yields lower and pushed the dollar index to a one-month low.
Why is GBP/USD higher today?
Sterling broke above its triangle top line and hit its highest since 16 September, helped by a weaker dollar and a Bank of England hike to 4.00% expected tomorrow at 12:00 GMT.
