AI-Chip Rout Sends the S&P 500 Down 3% and the Dow Down 2% as the Midterm Rally Unwinds: the 21:00 GMT US Close Decides Dip-Buy or Breakdown | Technical Analysis – Index Report | 05 Nov 2026
LIVE Indices | Thursday 5 November 2026 | 16:26 GMT snapshot, Europe closing | BoE hiked to 4.00% | US jobless claims 189K | US close 21:00 GMT
AI-Chip Rout Sends the S&P 500 Down 3% and the Dow Down 2% as the Midterm Rally Unwinds: the 21:00 GMT US Close Decides Dip-Buy or Breakdown
Market Overview
Wall Street is giving back all of Wednesday’s midterm rally in a single session, and the S&P 500 is testing whether 7,394 holds into the 21:00 GMT close. The S&P 500 (7,452.48, −3.07%) fell through its rising channel floor as Nvidia dropped 8.3% and AMD 15.9% on fears that a Democratic Congress will scrutinise AI data-centre spending, while the Nasdaq is down about 5%. The Dow (52,225.23, −2.13%) opened at 53,684, hit 53,716 and then reversed to a low of 51,985.20. Europe held up better: the FTSE 100 (10,775.47, −0.50%) was rejected at 10,948 after the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4.00%, and the DAX (26,262.45, −0.66%) pulled back from a new high at 26,692.90. The Hang Seng (24,796.98, +3.67%) closed at the top of the group on a tech-led rally.
The data was firm and the dollar steady, so the move is about AI and chips, not the economy. US initial jobless claims came in at 189,000 against 196,000 to 197,000 expected, a 57-year low, and roughly 75% to 81% odds of a December Fed hike remain priced. Brent bounced toward $96 to $97 after an 8% slide. RSI readings of 50.53 (Dow), 37.17 (S&P 500), 54.02 (FTSE 100), 60.94 (DAX) and 63.46 (Hang Seng) show the S&P 500 closest to oversold and Hong Kong strongest. Desk plan: sell bounces in the Dow and S&P 500, buy dips in the FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Hang Seng. This report is a 16:26 GMT snapshot, and the US session is still open.
Key highlights
- Dow Jones: Price is 52,225.23 on the 52,208 average after a failed breakout; 52,429 caps and 51,985 is the floor.
- S&P 500: Price is 7,452.48 under the channel floor with RSI 37.17; 7,621 is the cap and 7,394 the day’s low.
- FTSE 100: Price is 10,775.47 inside the triangle after a rejection at 10,948; 10,685 is the key support.
- DAX 40: Price is 26,262.45 above the 25,593 averages with RSI 60.94; 26,693 is the day’s high.
- Hang Seng: Price is 24,796.98 above the channel top and all three averages; 24,434 is the support to hold.
What’s Moving Indices Today
AI-chip wipeout drives the S&P 500 down more than 3% and the Nasdaq down about 5%
Nvidia fell 8.3% and AMD 15.9% by 16:00 GMT, erasing all of Wednesday’s gains, the best day in three months. The S&P 500 is heading for its worst drop since the April 2025 tariff shock, and roughly two in five of its stocks are still rising.
Source: AP via BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, 5 Nov 2026
Why chips are falling: a Democratic Congress raises scrutiny of AI data centres
Democrats take control of Congress in January 2027, and investors fear tougher scrutiny of data-centre power demand and utility bills. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 3.1% and has lost about a quarter of its value in a month; State Street notes the president’s veto limits how far this can go.
Source: Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Analytics Insight, 5 Nov 2026
US initial jobless claims fall to 189,000, matching a 57-year low
Claims came in below the 196,000 to 197,000 consensus at 13:30 GMT, and the 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.84% to 4.9%. Markets still price roughly a 75% to 81% chance of a December Fed hike, and the dollar index sits near 101.4 to 101.5, off its October highs.
Source: Reuters, ActionForex, Finimize, Investing.com, 5 Nov 2026
Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4.00% on an 8-1 vote, its first hike since August 2023
Catherine Mann voted for a 50 bp move, and the Bank warned at least one more rise is likely if the Iran conflict keeps energy costs high; it sees inflation near 5% by mid-2027. The FTSE 100 hit 10,948 and then reversed to trade down 0.5% as Wall Street fell.
Source: Investing.com via Yahoo, Finimize, Trading Economics, Share Talk, 5 Nov 2026
Hang Seng jumps 877 points, or 3.67%, to 24,796 on a tech-led rally
Turnover reached HK$356.6 billion, a near three-month high. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 5.55% to 4,154, with Alibaba up 8.5% and Tencent up 7.2%, as the US midterm outcome lifted sentiment.
Source: The Standard (Hong Kong), 5 Nov 2026
European chip stocks fall 3% to 8% and the Stoxx 600 gives back its record-high gains
ASML, Soitec and Infineon slid as the US selloff spread. Banks and drugmakers, which dominate European indices, held up, and the Stoxx 600 had been up 0.4%, just shy of August’s record, before it erased gains of as much as 0.8% by 15:05 GMT.
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, 5 Nov 2026
Brent bounces toward $96 to $97 after an 8% slump, and gold holds near $4,125
Oil fell to its lowest since 31 August on Wednesday and recovered as investors weigh how soon the Iran war could realistically end. Easing energy prices helped Europe and Hong Kong, while the rebound limits the relief for rate-sensitive stocks.
Source: Reuters, Analytics Insight, Investor Ideas, 5 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Five things that set direction for the rest of the session in the Dow, S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Hang Seng. All times are GMT.
- Bank of England rate decision (released)
- 12:00
- Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 GMT
- Bank Rate raised 25 bp to 4.00% on an 8-1 vote; more hikes flagged if energy costs stay high
- US initial jobless claims (released)
- 13:30
- Thu 5 Nov, 13:30 GMT
- 189K versus 196K to 197K expected, a 57-year low; keeps the December Fed hike priced near 75% to 81%
- Europe close
- 16:30
- Thu 5 Nov, 16:30 GMT
- FTSE 100 and DAX settle; holding above 10,685 and 26,223 keeps the dip-buy ideas alive
- Chip, AI and oil headlines
- All day
- Thu 5 Nov, all day GMT
- Any Nvidia, AMD or Congress data-centre headline moves the S&P 500 first; Brent near $96 to $97 on Iran-war news feeds the energy-sensitive indices
- US close and setup expiry
- 21:00
- Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 GMT
- The US cash close sets the daily candle for the Dow and S&P 500; unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT, and Hong Kong reopens at 01:30 GMT
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order Dow Jones, S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Hang Seng, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) | Short | 52,430.0 | 53,000.0 | 51,900.0 | 51,300.0 | 0.9 / 2.0 | Low |
| S&P 500 (US500) | Short | 7,540.0 | 7,640.0 | 7,400.0 | 7,300.0 | 1.4 / 2.4 | Medium |
| FTSE 100 (UK100) | Long | 10,700.0 | 10,620.0 | 10,830.0 | 10,900.0 | 1.6 / 2.5 | Low |
| DAX 40 (DE40) | Long | 26,100.0 | 25,800.0 | 26,440.0 | 26,690.0 | 1.1 / 2.0 | Medium |
| Hang Seng (HK50) | Long | 24,450.0 | 23,950.0 | 25,200.0 | 25,800.0 | 1.5 / 2.7 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each index is in its section below. Prices are feed prices from the daily charts at about 16:26 GMT on 5 November. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a bounce or a pullback to trigger, and the US session is still open, so fast chip-stock moves can gap prices through them. Two ideas are short (US) and three are long (Europe and Hong Kong), but indices move together, so a sharp global risk-off wave would hit all three longs at once. The Hang Seng cash market is closed until 01:30 GMT, so that idea trades on the CFD. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
The chip-stock tape into the 21:00 GMT US close and any oil or Congress headline are the swing factors for the rest of today.
Nvidia and AMD keep sliding: the breakdown spreads to Europe and Hong Kong
A further leg lower in chip stocks would pull the S&P 500 and Dow to the day’s lows, hit the DAX through ASML and Infineon, and drag the FTSE 100 and Hang Seng back to their averages.
- Dow Jones51,985, then 51,300
- S&P 5007,394, then 7,300
- FTSE 10010,685, then 10,400
- DAX 4026,223, then 25,593
- Hang Seng24,434, then 23,698
Chips stabilise and buyers step in: the bounce tests the overhead averages
A recovery in Nvidia and AMD, with falling oil and a steady dollar, would lift the Dow and S&P 500 toward their moving averages and send the DAX and FTSE 100 back to their morning highs.
- Dow Jones52,429, then 53,361
- S&P 5007,621, then 7,688
- FTSE 10010,900, then 10,948
- DAX 4026,438, then 26,693
- Hang Seng25,400, then 26,200
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) | TVC feed
Dow Jones Analysis: A Failed Breakout Above the Triangle Top Sends Price Back to Its Rising Support
52,225.23 −1,136.09 (−2.13%) on the daily candle at about 16:26 GMT Previous close 53,361.32
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces while 52,429 caps. The Dow opened at 53,684 and touched 53,716 before reversing to 51,985.20. It is falling less than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq because the selling is concentrated in chip and AI stocks, and it was up about 300 points in futures before the bell.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 51,300.00
- Support 1
- 51,985.20
- Resistance 1
- 52,429.09
- Resistance 2
- 53,361.32
- Price (52,225.23) is between the 52,429.09 average and the 52,207.87 and 52,128.91 averages. Main catalyst: the chip and AI rout reversing Wednesday’s 3% midterm rally.
- RSI 50.53 below its 54.28 average: momentum has turned down from neutral. A close under 51,985 puts the rising trendline near 51,500 in play; a close above 53,361 would cancel the failed-breakout read.
Setup: Short at 52,430.0, stop 53,000.0, targets 51,900.0, 51,300.0 and 50,600.0. Reward:risk 0.9 / 2.0 / 3.2, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 53,000, or if Nvidia and AMD recover their losses before the US close. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
S&P 500 (US500) | SP feed
S&P 500 Analysis: Price Drops Through the Rising Channel Floor in an AI-Chip Rout
7,452.48 −236.14 (−3.07%) on the daily candle at about 16:26 GMT Previous close 7,688.62
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces while 7,621 caps. The index opened at 7,678.72 and fell to 7,394.02 as Nvidia lost 8.3% and AMD 15.9% by 16:00 GMT, and the Nasdaq was down about 5%. It is on track for its worst day since the April 2025 tariff shock, and has erased all of Wednesday’s 1.6% gain.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 7,300.00
- Support 1
- 7,394.02
- Resistance 1
- 7,621.03
- Resistance 2
- 7,688.62
- Price (7,452.48) is under the 7,621.03, 7,684.47 and 7,688.51 averages. Main catalyst: investor fear that a Democratic Congress will scrutinise AI data-centre build-outs, on top of AI financing worries.
- RSI 37.17 below its 46.13 average: the weakest of the five, close to oversold. A close under 7,394 targets the July low near 7,300; a close back above 7,621 would end the breakdown.
Setup: Short at 7,540.0, stop 7,640.0, targets 7,400.0, 7,300.0 and 7,200.0. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.4 / 3.4, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 7,640, or if chip stocks reverse sharply higher into the close. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
FTSE 100 (UK100) | FTSE feed
FTSE 100 Analysis: Price Rejects the Triangle Top at 10,948 as the Wall Street Rout Reverses the BoE-Day Rally
10,775.47 −53.73 (−0.50%) on the daily candle at about 16:26 GMT Previous close 10,829.20
Outlook: Bias is range-bound with a lean higher on dips while 10,685 holds. The index touched 10,948.24, its highest since 7 August, after the Bank of England raised Bank Rate 25 bp to 4.00% on an 8-1 vote, then turned negative as US stocks fell. The Bank said at least one more hike is likely if the Iran conflict keeps energy costs high.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 10,400.00
- Support 1
- 10,685.45
- Resistance 1
- 10,900.00
- Resistance 2
- 10,948.24
- Price (10,775.47) is above the 10,728.82, 10,695.39 and 10,685.45 averages and under the triangle top. Main catalyst: the BoE hike, with banks up 1.5% to 2.5% in the morning before the US-led reversal.
- RSI 54.02 above its 52.84 average: neutral. A close above 10,948 breaks the triangle top and targets 11,000; a close under 10,685 sends price toward the October low near 10,400.
Setup: Long at 10,700.0, stop 10,620.0, targets 10,830.0, 10,900.0 and 10,948.0. Reward:risk 1.6 / 2.5 / 3.1, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 10,620, or if the BoE’s hawkish guidance drags gilts and banks lower. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
DAX 40 (DE40) | XETR feed
DAX 40 Analysis: Price Pulls Back From a New High at 26,693 After Breaking Out of the Falling Channel
26,262.45 −175.22 (−0.66%) on the daily candle at about 16:26 GMT Previous close 26,437.67
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while the 25,593 average cluster holds. The DAX tagged 26,692.90 in the morning, above the August peak, as energy prices eased, then fell as chip stocks reversed: ASML dropped about 6% and the Stoxx 600 gave up its early record-high gains by 15:05 GMT.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 25,593.03
- Support 1
- 26,223.34
- Resistance 1
- 26,437.67
- Resistance 2
- 26,692.90
- Price (26,262.45) is above all three averages and just above today’s 26,223.34 low. Main catalyst: easing oil prices and a bid in banks and drugmakers, against a chip-sector rout.
- RSI 60.94 above its 54.73 average: the second strongest of the five. A close above 26,693 extends the breakout toward 27,000; a close under 26,223 opens the 25,593 average cluster.
Setup: Long at 26,100.0, stop 25,800.0, targets 26,440.0, 26,690.0 and 27,000.0. Reward:risk 1.1 / 2.0 / 3.0, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 25,800, or if ASML and Infineon extend losses of more than 8%. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Hang Seng (HK50) | HSI feed
Hang Seng Analysis: Price Breaks the Falling Channel Top on a Tech-Led 3.7% Surge
24,796.98 +877.48 (+3.67%) on the daily candle at about 16:26 GMT Previous close 23,919.50
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while 24,434 holds. The index jumped 877 points on turnover of HK$356.6 billion, a near three-month high, led by Alibaba (+8.5%) and Tencent (+7.2%); the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 5.55% to 4,154. The cash session closed at 08:00 GMT, so the next test is the 01:30 GMT open after today’s Wall Street rout.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 23,698.09
- Support 1
- 24,433.90
- Resistance 1
- 25,400.00
- Resistance 2
- 26,200.00
- Price (24,796.98) is above the 24,592.59, 24,433.90 and 23,698.09 averages. Main catalyst: relief after the US midterms and a tech-led rebound in Alibaba and Tencent.
- RSI 63.46 above its 38.82 average: the strongest of the five, with a sharp upturn. A close above 25,400 targets the August high near 26,200; a close back under 24,434 would make this a false breakout.
Setup: Long at 24,450.0, stop 23,950.0, targets 25,200.0, 25,800.0 and 26,200.0. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.7 / 3.5, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 23,950, or if Nasdaq futures extend losses and gap Hong Kong lower at the open. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
Wall Street is in a chip-led breakdown while Europe and Hong Kong hold, so we prefer selling bounces in the S&P 500 near 7,540 (medium conviction) and the Dow near 52,430 (low conviction), and buying dips in the DAX near 26,100 and the Hang Seng near 24,450 (medium conviction) and the FTSE 100 near 10,700 (low conviction). The session risks are chip-stock headlines, oil and the 21:00 GMT US close. A 4-hour close above 7,640 in the S&P 500 or under 25,800 in the DAX would change the picture.
Trade the Dow, S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Hang Seng with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the indices outlook for today?
Wall Street is sharply lower on an AI-chip selloff, with the S&P 500 near 7,452 and the Dow near 52,225, while the Hang Seng closed up 3.67%. The FTSE 100 and DAX are modestly lower after reversing from morning highs.
Which index trade ideas are live today?
Short the S&P 500 and Dow on bounces; long the FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Hang Seng on dips, each with a stop and three targets valid until 21:00 GMT.
What time are the key events in GMT?
The Bank of England decision came at 12:00 GMT, US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and the Wall Street open at 14:30 GMT. Europe closes at 16:30 GMT, the US closes and setups expire at 21:00 GMT, and Hong Kong reopens at 01:30 GMT.
Why is the S&P 500 falling today?
Chip and AI stocks are selling off on fears that a Democratic Congress will tighten scrutiny of data-centre spending. Nvidia fell 8.3% and AMD 15.9% by 16:00 GMT, and the Nasdaq is down about 5%.
Why did the FTSE 100 reverse after the Bank of England hike?
The index hit 10,948.24 on the 25 bp hike to 4.00%, then turned lower as US stocks fell. The Bank also said at least one more hike is likely if energy costs stay high.
