Dollar Frozen at 101.67 After Oil’s Crash as Fed Hike Bets Hit 84% and US CPI Looms at 13:30 GMT: GBP/USD Holds 1.3450, USD/JPY Stalls at 158 | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 10 Nov 2026
LIVE Forex | Tuesday 10 November 2026 | 07:36 GMT live update, European open under way | Waller 09:00 GMT, US CPI 13:30 GMT, Logan 14:35 GMT
Dollar Frozen at 101.67 After Oil’s Crash as Fed Hike Bets Hit 84% and US CPI Looms at 13:30 GMT: GBP/USD Holds 1.3450, USD/JPY Stalls at 158
Market Overview
The dollar is frozen near 101.67 into the one event that matters today, US October CPI at 13:30 GMT, with a December Fed hike priced at about 84% and Brent down more than 20% in a week. The dollar index fell 0.6% on Monday as oil’s collapse (Brent settled nearly 6% lower at 92.57) and Trump’s “highly unlikely” comment on new Iran strikes pulled money back into risk assets, and it is flat below 102.00 as the European session opens. Oil’s drop sent USD/CAD out of its falling channel, while the weaker dollar lifted the Aussie 0.88% and EUR/USD to 1.1230 off Monday’s 1.1137 low, and let sterling reclaim 1.3400. At 07:36 GMT, FXStreet showed GBP/USD near 1.3450, USD/CAD near 1.4120 and USD/JPY back at 158.00 after weak Japanese household spending, all within a few pips of the 05:17 GMT chart prices matched to Investing.com: USD/JPY 158.01 (+0.08%), AUD/USD 0.6923 (−0.04%), EUR/CHF 0.9199 (+0.02%), GBP/USD 1.3445 (+0.03%), USD/CAD 1.4120 (+0.02%) and USD/CHF 0.8194 (−0.01%).
The risk is two-sided and binary: a core print of 0.3% or more would push hike odds past 85% and hit GBP/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/CHF, while a 0.2% or softer core print would hand back the dollar’s rebound. CPI has no official annual rate this month because last year’s shutdown left October 2025 prices uncollected, so desks will trade the monthly figures (Reuters poll +0.3% headline; core 0.2% for MUFG but 0.3% for Danske). Fed, ECB and BoE speakers are all scheduled today, including Waller at 09:00 GMT and Logan at 14:35 GMT, and any Iran or Qatar headline can flip oil, USD/CAD and AUD/USD in minutes, while USD/JPY is capped by Japan’s $97 billion of intervention sales. RSI readings of 51.14, 41.78, 42.07, 57.58, 56.33 and 44.16 show no pair stretched. Desk plan: buy dips in GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and EUR/CHF, sell bounces in AUD/USD and USD/JPY, and cut size before 13:30 GMT. Levels come from the 05:17 GMT charts, so check the live quote before trading.
Key highlights
- USD/JPY: Price 158.01 is inside a triangle between 156.90 and 158.50; the 159.00 average caps and 157.22 supports.
- AUD/USD: Price 0.6923 is under three averages in a falling channel; 0.6984 caps and 0.6850 supports.
- EUR/CHF: Price 0.9199 has broken its falling channel and sits under the 0.9223 average; 0.9150 holds.
- GBP/USD: Price 1.3445 is above three averages inside a triangle; 1.3500 caps and 1.3400 holds.
- USD/CAD: Price 1.4120 is above three averages after the channel breakout; 1.4150 caps and 1.4060 holds.
- USD/CHF: Price 0.8194 sits on the rising channel floor; 0.8235 caps and 0.8161 supports.
What’s Moving Forex Today
The dollar index sits flat near 101.67 as traders wait for US CPI at 13:30 GMT, with a December Fed hike priced near 82–85%
The October CPI carries no official annual rate because last year’s shutdown left October 2025 prices uncollected, so the market will trade the monthly numbers: consensus is +0.3% headline and +0.2% core (Danske sees 0.3%) after +0.6% and +0.3% in September, and the Cleveland Fed nowcast is 0.24% and 0.21%. The US 10-year yield is near 4.87% after payrolls of 165,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, and Fed, ECB and BoE speakers are all scheduled today.
Source: FXStreet, Reuters via Business Recorder, Danske Bank, TipRanks, Bloomberg survey via NBC News, 10 Nov 2026
Trump called new Iran strikes “highly unlikely” and was due to meet Qatar’s Sheikh Mohammed on Monday as Brent settled nearly 6% lower; mixed signals keep oil volatile
The dollar fell on Monday as easing Middle East escalation fears sent investors back into risk assets after last week’s AI-stock selloff, and Wall Street closed higher. Brent settled nearly 6% lower at 92.57 on Monday after trading at 94.99 in New York, and FXStreet has WTI below 85.50 this morning. Brent has now fallen more than 20% in a week, but reports of a revived US–Iran channel via a Qatari–Pakistani proposal are unconfirmed by major outlets, so headline risk runs both ways for USD/CAD and AUD/USD.
Source: Reuters via Kitco, FXStreet, 10 Nov 2026
Sterling holds near 1.3445 after the Bank of England hiked to 4.00%, though Pill’s “nothing is baked in” tempers further hike pricing
The BoE raised Bank Rate by 25 basis points on 5 November in an 8–1 vote, with one member preferring 50. The pound slipped after Chief Economist Pill said nothing is baked in for 2027, and ING sees sterling expensive against the euro, with EUR/GBP near 0.834. Breeden and Pill are both scheduled to speak today.
Source: Bank of England, Investing.com, ING, FXStreet, 10 Nov 2026
USD/JPY sits at 158 as Japan’s intervention threat offsets weak Japanese data and fading December Bank of Japan hike expectations
Monday’s data showed Japan sold $97 billion of reserves defending the yen through late July and August, when it hit four-decade lows against the dollar. The threat of further dollar sales is keeping the yen steady, and a BoJ Summary of Opinions member said it is appropriate to keep raising rates, though December hike bets have faded.
Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, FXStreet, 10 Nov 2026
AUD/USD holds near 0.6923 after China’s trade surplus shrank more than expected to CNY712.72 billion
The Aussie rebounded 0.88% on Monday as oil fell and risk appetite improved, but it is struggling to extend above 0.6900 as higher December Fed hike bets let the dollar pause its decline. US CPI is the next test.
Source: FXStreet, 10 Nov 2026
Swiss inflation at 1.5% revives SNB tightening doubts and puts a ceiling on EUR/CHF despite the channel breakout
ING noted that EUR/CHF briefly fell sharply on the October inflation print and recalls the SNB’s 2023 strategy of driving the franc stronger through FX sales; it sees downside risk to its EUR/CHF forecasts. The euro is supported by crowded dollar longs, and ECOFIN is weighing the ECB presidency (de Cos versus Knot).
Source: ING via FXStreet, EconoTimes, Reuters, 10 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six events that set direction for the rest of the session across USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. All times are GMT.
- Fed Governor Waller
- 09:00
- Tue 10 Nov, 09:00 GMT
- First Fed voice before CPI; a hawkish tone backs USD/CHF and USD/CAD and pressures GBP/USD and AUD/USD
- NFIB optimism
- 11:00
- Tue 10 Nov, 11:00 GMT
- Small business survey (97.7 forecast, 97.9 prior); a minor mover
- US October CPI
- 13:30
- Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 GMT
- Monthly only, no annual rate: consensus +0.3% headline and +0.2% core; the swing event for every pair
- Fed’s Logan
- 14:35
- Tue 10 Nov, 14:35 GMT
- Reaction to CPI and the December hike debate
- Setup expiry
- 21:00
- Tue 10 Nov, 21:00 GMT
- Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT
- Daily close
- 22:00
- Tue 10 Nov, 22:00 GMT
- Daily candles close at 22:00 GMT
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY (USDJPY) | Short | 158.60 | 159.10 | 157.90 | 157.20 | 1.4 / 2.8 | Low |
| AUD/USD (AUDUSD) | Short | 0.6965 | 0.7012 | 0.6895 | 0.6850 | 1.5 / 2.4 | Medium |
| EUR/CHF (EURCHF) | Long | 0.9160 | 0.9115 | 0.9223 | 0.9315 | 1.4 / 3.4 | Low |
| GBP/USD (GBPUSD) | Long | 1.3400 | 1.3345 | 1.3500 | 1.3550 | 1.8 / 2.7 | Medium |
| USD/CAD (USDCAD) | Long | 1.4070 | 1.4018 | 1.4150 | 1.4230 | 1.5 / 3.1 | Medium |
| USD/CHF (USDCHF) | Long | 0.8170 | 0.8128 | 0.8235 | 0.8300 | 1.5 / 3.1 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each pair is in its section below. Headline prices match the Investing.com quotes at about 05:17 GMT and levels come from the daily charts captured at the same time. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and US CPI at 13:30 GMT can gap prices through them. Four ideas are long and two are short, but they are not independent: a hot CPI would help USD/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/JPY and hurt GBP/USD, EUR/CHF and AUD/USD, so the book is partly hedged and size should be cut before 13:30 GMT. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
US CPI at 13:30 GMT and the Fed speakers around it are the swing factors for the rest of today.
If core CPI prints 0.3% or higher, December hike odds rise past 85% and the dollar firms
A hot print or hawkish Waller and Logan would lift Treasury yields and the dollar. USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF would push higher (USD/JPY into the 159.00 cap and intervention risk), while GBP/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/CHF would slip.
- USD/JPY158.50, then 159.00
- AUD/USD0.6850, then 0.6800
- EUR/CHF0.9150, then 0.9115
- GBP/USD1.3400, then 1.3350
- USD/CAD1.4150, then 1.4230
- USD/CHF0.8235, then 0.8300
If core CPI prints 0.1% or oil slides on Iran progress, the dollar gives back more of its gains
A soft core print, dovish Fed tones or ceasefire progress would deepen the dollar’s slide. GBP/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/CHF would test their overhead averages, while USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF would fall toward support.
- USD/JPY157.22, then 156.60
- AUD/USD0.6984, then 0.7029
- EUR/CHF0.9223, then 0.9315
- GBP/USD1.3500, then 1.3600
- USD/CAD1.4060, then 1.4000
- USD/CHF0.8161, then 0.8100
USD/JPY | Investing.com quote, FXCM chart feed
USD/JPY Analysis: Price Coils at 158 Inside a Triangle as Intervention Fears Meet Fed Hike Bets Before US CPI
158.01 +0.12 (+0.08%) on Investing.com Previous close 157.89 | FXCM chart feed 158.009, range 157.847 to 158.121 | Investing.com showed 157.96 to 158.01 around 05:17 GMT
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces while the 159.00 average caps, with low conviction because CPI can break the triangle either way. Japan sold $97 billion of reserves defending the yen through July and August, so the threat of more dollar sales keeps USD/JPY pinned even though December Bank of Japan hike expectations have faded; a fall in Japanese household spending lifted the pair back to 158 overnight, outweighing a hawkish BoJ Summary of Opinions.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 156.60
- Support 1
- 157.22
- Resistance 1
- 158.50
- Resistance 2
- 159.00
- Price (158.01) is between the 157.91 and 159.00 averages and level with the 157.22 average below. Main catalysts: Waller at 09:00 GMT, US CPI at 13:30 GMT and any Ministry of Finance comment on the yen.
- RSI 51.14 over its 50.21 average: neutral momentum. A close above 159.00 breaks the triangle top and exposes 160; a close under 157.22 targets the rising line near 156.60.
Setup: Short at 158.60 (triangle top retest), stop 159.10, targets 157.90, 157.20 and 156.60. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 159.10, or if CPI lifts yields and the dollar through Monday’s highs. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.8 / 4.0, low conviction.
AUD/USD | Investing.com quote, OANDA chart feed
AUD/USD Analysis: Rebound Stalls Under the 0.6984 Average Inside a Falling Channel as China’s Trade Surplus Narrows
0.6923 −0.0003 (−0.04%) on Investing.com Open 0.6926 | OANDA chart feed 0.69232, range 0.69139 to 0.69305
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces while 0.7000 caps, with medium conviction. The Aussie rose 0.88% on Monday as lower oil and Iran peace hopes lifted risk appetite (FXStreet), but China’s October trade surplus shrank more than expected to CNY712.72 billion and higher December Fed hike bets have let the dollar pause its decline.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.6800
- Support 1
- 0.6850
- Resistance 1
- 0.6984
- Resistance 2
- 0.7029
- Price (0.6923) is under all three averages (0.6984, 0.7029, 0.7036). Main catalysts: US CPI at 13:30 GMT and risk tone from oil and Iran headlines.
- RSI 41.78 under its 47.36 average: weak momentum. A close above 0.7029 breaks the channel top and opens 0.7100; a close under 0.6850 targets the 0.6800 channel floor.
Setup: Short at 0.6965 (rally toward the 20-day average), stop 0.7012, targets 0.6895, 0.6850 and 0.6800. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 0.7012, or if US CPI undershoots and the dollar breaks lower. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.4 / 3.5, medium conviction.
EUR/CHF | Investing.com quote, OANDA chart feed
EUR/CHF Analysis: Breakout From the Falling Channel Meets the 0.9223 Average, With Hawkish SNB Risk Capping the Rebound
0.9199 +0.0002 (+0.02%) on Investing.com Open 0.9191 | OANDA chart feed 0.91994, range 0.91908 to 0.92002
Outlook: Bias is higher on a retest with low conviction. Price closed above the top of the falling channel on Monday, helped by crowded dollar longs (Ebury) and a euro-zone recovery view, but ING warns of downside risk to EUR/CHF after Swiss inflation rose to 1.5% in October and revived doubts the SNB can avoid tightening. EUR/USD is holding 1.1230 after Monday’s 1.1137 low, which supports the cross. ECOFIN is also weighing ECB presidency candidates, Hernández de Cos (dove) and Knot (hawk).
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.9120
- Support 1
- 0.9150
- Resistance 1
- 0.9223
- Resistance 2
- 0.9315
- Price (0.9199) is under the 0.9223, 0.9315 and 0.9330 averages. Main catalysts: SNB tightening headlines after Swiss CPI, and ECB presidency news from ECOFIN.
- RSI 42.07 over its 34.77 average: momentum has turned up from oversold. A close above 0.9223 targets 0.9315; a close back inside the channel under 0.9150 puts 0.9120 in play.
Setup: Long at 0.9160 (retest of the broken channel top), stop 0.9115, targets 0.9223, 0.9315 and 0.9330. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 0.9115, or if SNB speakers turn clearly hawkish. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today. Reward:risk 1.4 / 3.4 / 3.8, low conviction.
GBP/USD | Investing.com quote, FXCM chart feed
GBP/USD Analysis: Pound Holds Above 1.3400 Inside a Tightening Triangle, With 1.3500 the Cap Into US CPI
1.3445 +0.0005 (+0.03%) on Investing.com Open 1.3441 | FXCM chart feed 1.34452, range 1.34291 to 1.34503
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while 1.3400 holds, with medium conviction. Sterling rose about 0.5% on Monday as the dollar slid, and FXStreet notes the constructive tone above the 100-day average, with 1.3500 the first barrier. The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4.00% on 5 November (8–1 vote), but Pill’s “nothing is baked in” for 2027 has tempered rate expectations; BoE speakers Breeden and Pill are scheduled today.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3350
- Support 1
- 1.3400
- Resistance 1
- 1.3500
- Resistance 2
- 1.3600
- Price (1.3445) is above the 1.3395, 1.3367 and 1.3357 averages. Main catalysts: US CPI at 13:30 GMT, Waller at 09:00 GMT and the BoE speakers.
- RSI 57.58 over its 55.79 average: momentum is positive. A close above 1.3500 breaks the triangle top and targets 1.3600; a close under 1.3350 breaks the rising line and puts 1.3200 in sight.
Setup: Long at 1.3400 (pullback to the averages), stop 1.3345, targets 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3600. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 1.3345, or if a hot core CPI lifts the dollar through Monday’s highs. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today. Reward:risk 1.8 / 2.7 / 3.6, medium conviction.
USD/CAD | Investing.com quote, OANDA chart feed
USD/CAD Analysis: Price Broke Out of the Falling Channel on Cheaper Oil and Holds Above Three Averages Ahead of US CPI
1.4120 +0.0003 (+0.02%) on Investing.com Open 1.4118 | OANDA chart feed 1.41202, range 1.41149 to 1.41286 | Investing.com showed 1.4120 around the snapshot time
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while 1.4060 holds, with medium conviction. A large green candle on Monday took price out of the falling channel as crude slid (Brent settled nearly 6% lower at 92.57 on Monday; WTI under 85.50 in Asia), and cheaper oil is a drag on the oil-linked Canadian dollar. Canada’s unemployment rate hit a six-month high in October, and strong US payrolls and a December Fed hike near 82–85% priced add to the dollar bid.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.4000
- Support 1
- 1.4060
- Resistance 1
- 1.4150
- Resistance 2
- 1.4230
- Price (1.4120) is above all three averages (1.4043 to 1.4059). Main catalysts: US CPI at 13:30 GMT, Waller at 09:00 GMT and oil moves on Iran talks headlines.
- RSI 56.33 over its 43.44 average: momentum has flipped positive. A close above 1.4150 targets 1.4230 and 1.4300; a close under 1.4060 puts the channel back in play and 1.4000 in sight.
Setup: Long at 1.4070 (pullback into the averages), stop 1.4018, targets 1.4150, 1.4230 and 1.4300. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 1.4018, or if an Iran deal sends oil sharply higher. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today. Reward:risk 1.5 / 3.1 / 4.4, medium conviction.
USD/CHF | Investing.com quote, FXCM chart feed
USD/CHF Analysis: Price Rests on the Rising Channel Floor Under the 0.8235 Averages as Swiss Inflation Revives SNB Hawk Risk
0.8194 −0.0001 (−0.01%) on Investing.com Open 0.8195 | FXCM chart feed 0.81940, range 0.81831 to 0.82015 | Investing.com showed 0.8195 around the snapshot time
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while the channel floor near 0.8150 holds, with medium conviction. The franc is firm after Swiss October inflation rose to 1.5%, which ING says raises SNB tightening risk, while a December Fed hike near 82–85% priced and US CPI at 13:30 GMT keep the dollar supported on dips.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8100
- Support 1
- 0.8161
- Resistance 1
- 0.8235
- Resistance 2
- 0.8300
- Price (0.8194) is above the 0.8161 average and under the 0.8235 averages (0.82349 and 0.82359). Main catalysts: US CPI at 13:30 GMT, Waller at 09:00 GMT and Logan at 14:35 GMT.
- RSI 44.16 under its 46.06 average: soft momentum. A close above 0.8235 targets 0.8300; a close under 0.8150 breaks the channel floor and targets 0.8100.
Setup: Long at 0.8170 (channel floor), stop 0.8128, targets 0.8235, 0.8300 and 0.8395. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 0.8128, or if a soft CPI sinks the dollar through Monday’s lows. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today. Reward:risk 1.5 / 3.1 / 5.4, medium conviction.
Conclusion
The dollar is steady near 101.70 with a December Fed hike priced near 82–85%, so we prefer buying dips in GBP/USD near 1.3400, USD/CAD near 1.4070 and USD/CHF near 0.8170 (medium conviction) and EUR/CHF near 0.9160 (low), and selling bounces in AUD/USD near 0.6965 (medium) and USD/JPY near 158.60 (low). The session risks are Waller at 09:00 GMT, US CPI at 13:30 GMT and Logan at 14:35 GMT, plus Iran headlines at any time. A 4-hour close beyond any stop cancels that idea.
Trade USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the forex outlook for today?
The dollar is steady near 101.70 after Monday’s slide, and US CPI at 13:30 GMT is the main test, with a December Fed hike priced near 82–85%. Iran headlines and oil also move USD/CAD and AUD/USD.
Which forex trade ideas are live today?
Long EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF on pullbacks, and short USD/JPY and AUD/USD on bounces, each with a stop and three targets valid until 21:00 GMT.
What time are the key events in GMT?
Waller speaks at 09:00 GMT, NFIB is at 11:00, US CPI is at 13:30, Logan speaks at 14:35, setups expire at 21:00 and daily candles close at 22:00 GMT.
Why is there no annual US CPI rate today?
Last year’s government shutdown meant October 2025 prices were never collected, so the BLS cannot publish a 12-month change for October 2026. Traders will focus on the monthly headline and core readings.
Why is USD/JPY stuck near 158?
Fed hike bets support the dollar, but Japan’s record of dollar sales to defend the yen and the dollar’s pullback keep a lid on the pair. Price is coiling inside a triangle until CPI gives it direction.
