Fed Hike Locked In: Dollar Surges as USD/JPY Stares Down 159 and Euro, Pound and Aussie Crack | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 11 Nov 2026
LIVE Forex | Wednesday 11 November 2026 | Updated after German CPI (07:00 GMT) | London open 08:00 GMT | December Fed hike fully priced | US bond market shut for Veterans Day
Fed Hike Locked In: Dollar Surges as USD/JPY Stares Down 159 and Euro, Pound and Aussie Crack
Market Overview
The Fed’s December hike is no longer a forecast, it is the market’s base case, and the dollar is collecting the payout. One hot October CPI print (0.4% headline against 0.3% expected, core 0.3% against 0.2%) took hike pricing from about 84% to fully priced overnight, with Waller openly floating 50 bp (futures give a half-point move roughly 12% to 15%). The dollar index closed at 102.24, its highest since mid-October, Treasury yields are back above 5%, and the euro, pound and Aussie lost 0.5% to 0.9% in a single session. The 05:08 GMT chart-feed snapshot shows USD/JPY at 158.719, AUD/USD at 0.68798, EUR/USD at 1.11667, GBP/USD at 1.33497, USD/CAD at 1.41994 and USD/CHF at 0.82573.
German final CPI just landed exactly in line, so the euro gets no lifeline from the data calendar. Destatis confirmed 2.8% on the year and −0.2% on the month at 07:00 GMT, a non-event that leaves the dollar in charge as London opens at 08:00 GMT, ECB speakers Cipollone and Lagarde are on the schedule, and US stocks open at 14:30 GMT with Treasuries shut. The real brake is not data but Tokyo: USD/JPY is within a whisker of the 159 to 160 zone where intervention risk lives. Desk plan: buy dips in USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, and sell bounces in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. All six ideas are one dollar view, so treat them as correlated risk. Prices are the 05:08 GMT snapshot taken before Europe traded, and the levels and setups below are unchanged because the German print was in line.
Key highlights
- USD/JPY: Price 158.719 is between the 157.97 and 158.98 averages; 158.98 caps and 157.97 is the floor.
- AUD/USD: Price 0.68798 is under all three averages with RSI 38.66; 0.6900 caps and 0.6840 supports.
- EUR/USD: Price 1.11667 is under all three averages; 1.1193 caps and the 1.1105 yearly low holds.
- GBP/USD: Price 1.33497 is testing the rising trendline under the 1.3352 average; 1.3370 caps and 1.3320 holds.
- USD/CAD: Price 1.41994 is above all three averages at the triangle top; 1.4205 caps and 1.4105 holds.
- USD/CHF: Price 0.82573 is above the 0.8239 and 0.8234 averages; 0.8300 caps and 0.8240 holds.
What’s Moving Forex Today
Dollar holds near its highest since mid-October after hot CPI, with Waller leaving the door open to a 50 bp December hike
October CPI rose 0.4% on the month against 0.3% expected, with core up 0.3% against 0.2%, and the dollar index closed 0.58% higher at 102.24 on Tuesday. Treasury yields moved back above 5%, Waller backed further hikes and Logan sees two more, while Goolsbee flagged a “real inflation issue”. Futures now price a hike at the 8–9 December meeting as a certainty, up from about 84% a day earlier, with roughly 85% to 88% on 25 bp (lifting the funds range to 4.00%–4.25%) and 12% to 15% on 50 bp. The US bond market is closed today for Veterans Day, so there is no yield signal, though stocks trade.
Source: FXStreet, Vibiznews, Cointelegraph, MPA, Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 10–11 Nov 2026
USD/JPY edges toward 158.90 in Asia, with Fed-hike bets lifting the pair and intervention risk capping it near 159
The pair extended gains for a second day to about 158.90 in Asian hours, a multi-week high, as the hot CPI cemented December hike bets. Weak Japanese household spending undermined the yen on Tuesday, though a hawkish BoJ summary of opinions limited losses; the BoJ is at 1.25% and markets widely expect its next hike in December. Hopes of a US–Iran deal reduce safe-haven demand for the dollar, and Tokyo’s intervention risk near 160 caps further gains.
Source: FXStreet, Vantage Markets, Vibiznews, 10–11 Nov 2026
Euro drifts to the lower part of its range at 1.1167 as US rate bets climb, with ECB speakers Lagarde and Cipollone on today’s schedule
EUR/USD held above the mid-1.1100s in Asia after falling 0.53% to close near 1.1165 on Tuesday, with a break of the 2026 low at 1.1105 the key downside trigger. German final CPI printed in line at 2.8% on the year at 07:00 GMT, so the remaining euro tests today are speeches from the ECB’s Cipollone and Lagarde. The euro is also weighed by French political and fiscal instability and reports of a possible early departure by ECB President Lagarde. Vibiznews flags 1.1126 to 1.1088 as support and 1.1227 to 1.1290 as resistance.
Source: FXStreet, Investing.com, Vibiznews, 10–11 Nov 2026
Pound slips under 1.34 as hot US CPI puts a 50 bp Fed hike in play, with BoE tightening cushioning the fall
GBP/USD fell about 0.7% to near 1.3344 on Tuesday, though Iran-diplomacy hopes capped the dollar’s rally. The BoE raised Bank Rate to 4% last Thursday on an 8–1 vote, with Catherine Mann backing 50 bp, which keeps sterling’s losses contained. UK Q3 GDP is due on Thursday, so today’s docket is light.
Source: FXStreet, TMGM, Vibiznews, 5–11 Nov 2026
Aussie breaks 0.69 as hot US CPI raises 50 bp Fed hike risk, with oil’s slide adding pressure
AUD/USD plunged 0.88% on Tuesday to break the 0.6900 level. Westpac says the currency has had a rough fortnight on “end-of-cycle” thinking after the RBA’s dovish November hike, an 18% plunge in crude last week and AI-growth worries after the Democratic midterm sweep.
Source: FXStreet, Westpac, 10–11 Nov 2026
USD/CAD pushes toward 1.42 as cheaper oil and a firm dollar outweigh a hawkish BoC
Brent was around $91 on Tuesday, near its lowest since early September, as Trump signalled no new strikes on Iran and US–Iran talks hopes grew. The loonie had resisted oil’s fall last week on dollar weakness, but that cushion faded after CPI. BoC Governor Macklem has said further hikes may be needed.
Source: FXStreet, Business Standard, Reuters, 3–10 Nov 2026
Franc gives back its seven-week high as USD/CHF rebounds above 0.8250, with SNB hike bets building
The franc reached a seven-week high on 3 November after Swiss October CPI beat at 0.2% on the month and 1.5% on the year. SNB policy stays at 0%, and investingLive notes December hike bets are building as the bank watches second-round inflation effects.
Source: FXStreet, Trading Economics, investingLive, 3–10 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. All times are GMT.
- German final CPI (released)
- 2.8%
- Wed 11 Nov, 07:00 GMT, in line
- Final October CPI confirmed the flash: 2.8% on the year, −0.2% on the month. No surprise for the euro
- ECB Cipollone and Lagarde
- Europe AM
- Wed 11 Nov, European session
- Both speak today per FXStreet; check the calendar for exact GMT times
- London open
- 08:00
- Wed 11 Nov, 08:00 GMT
- Liquidity returns; USD/JPY near 159 and EUR/USD near 1.1150 are the first tests
- Fed’s Bowman and MBA
- 12:00
- Wed 11 Nov, midday GMT
- Mortgage applications at 12:00 GMT, with Bowman scheduled to speak; no top-tier US data
- US stocks open, bonds shut
- 14:30
- Wed 11 Nov, 14:30 GMT
- Veterans Day: Treasury market closed, so dollar moves lack a yields anchor
- Setup expiry and daily close
- 21:00
- Wed 11 Nov, 21:00 and 22:00 GMT
- Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT and daily candles close at 22:00 GMT
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Long | 158.300 | 157.800 | 158.980 | 159.500 | 1.4 / 2.4 | Low |
| AUD/USD | Short | 0.68900 | 0.69250 | 0.68450 | 0.68100 | 1.3 / 2.3 | Medium |
| EUR/USD | Short | 1.11900 | 1.12250 | 1.11450 | 1.11150 | 1.3 / 2.1 | Medium |
| GBP/USD | Short | 1.33750 | 1.34150 | 1.33200 | 1.32850 | 1.4 / 2.2 | Low |
| USD/CAD | Long | 1.41500 | 1.41050 | 1.42050 | 1.42500 | 1.2 / 2.2 | Medium |
| USD/CHF | Long | 0.82450 | 0.82100 | 0.83000 | 0.83400 | 1.6 / 2.7 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each pair is in its section below. Levels come from the daily charts captured at 05:07 GMT (10:37 UTC+5:30), read from the FXCM and OANDA feeds. Every entry sat away from the 05:07 GMT price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger. Three ideas are long and three short, but all lean on the same dollar view, so a dollar reversal would hit most of them together. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
The dollar’s direction after Tuesday’s CPI shock and the Iran-talks headlines are the swing factors for the rest of today.
If Fed-hike bets keep building, the dollar index pushes toward 102.6 to 103.0
Fed speakers repeating the hawkish message and thin US liquidity with bonds shut would keep the dollar bid. USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF would rise, and EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD would fall.
- USD/JPY158.98, then 159.50
- AUD/USD0.6845, then 0.6810
- EUR/USD1.1105, then 1.1070
- GBP/USD1.3320, then 1.3285
- USD/CAD1.4205, then 1.4250
- USD/CHF0.8300, then 0.8340
If profit-taking sets in or Iran-deal hopes lift risk, the dollar index slips back toward 101.7
A hawkish Lagarde, Japanese intervention talk or fresh Iran-deal progress would trim the dollar’s CPI gains. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD would bounce, while USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF would drop to their averages.
- USD/JPY157.97, then 157.24
- AUD/USD0.6900, then 0.6977
- EUR/USD1.1193, then 1.1250
- GBP/USD1.3370, then 1.3396
- USD/CAD1.4105, then 1.4065
- USD/CHF0.8240, then 0.8165
USD/JPY | Investing.com pair, FXCM chart feed
USD/JPY Analysis: Price Pokes Above the Triangle Top Near 158.7 as Fed-Hike Bets Meet Intervention Risk Under 160
158.719 −0.012 (−0.01%) on the FXCM feed Previous close 158.731 | Range 158.666 to 158.956
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips with low conviction. The pair is near a multi-week high after a hot US CPI print and hawkish Fed talk, but weak Japanese household spending is offset by a hawkish BoJ opinions summary, and Tokyo’s intervention risk near 160 caps chasing. US bonds are closed today, so yields cannot confirm the move.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 157.240
- Support 1
- 157.970
- Resistance 1
- 158.980
- Resistance 2
- 159.500
- Price (158.719) is above the 157.97 and 157.24 averages and just under the 158.98 average. Main catalysts: the Fed-hike repricing after CPI, the dollar index near 102.2 and any Japanese verbal intervention near 159 to 160.
- RSI 56.34 over its 51.70 average: momentum is positive but not stretched. A close above 158.98 targets 159.50 and 160.00; a close under 157.97 puts the triangle back in play and 157.24 in sight.
Setup: Long at 158.300, stop 157.800, targets 158.980, 159.500, 160.000. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.4 / 3.4, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close beyond 157.800, or if Japanese officials step in verbally or in the market near 159 to 160. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
AUD/USD | Investing.com pair, OANDA chart feed
AUD/USD Analysis: Aussie Hugs the Channel Floor Under 0.69 as Oil’s Slide and Fed-Hike Bets Weigh
0.68798 +0.00136 (+0.20%) on the OANDA feed Previous close 0.68662 | Range 0.68652 to 0.68854
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces. AUD/USD broke under 0.6900 on Tuesday as hot US CPI put a 50 bp December Fed hike in play, and the Aussie is also hurt by oil’s slide and “end-of-cycle” thinking after the RBA’s dovish November hike. A bounce into 0.6890 to 0.6900 is the sell zone.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.67800
- Support 1
- 0.68400
- Resistance 1
- 0.69000
- Resistance 2
- 0.69770
- Price (0.68798) is under all three averages (0.6977, 0.7028 and 0.7029). Main catalysts: the dollar after CPI, copper and oil direction, and Chinese yuan tone; US bonds are shut so cross-asset signals are thinner.
- RSI 38.66 under its 46.08 average: weak but not oversold. A close under 0.6840 opens 0.6810 and the 0.6780 channel floor; a close above 0.6900 turns the bounce toward 0.6977.
Setup: Short at 0.68900, stop 0.69250, targets 0.68450, 0.68100, 0.67800. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.3 / 3.1, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close beyond 0.69250, or if the dollar gives back its CPI gains and AUD/USD closes back above 0.6900. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
EUR/USD | Investing.com pair, FXCM chart feed
EUR/USD Analysis: Price Sits Under the 1.1193 Average Inside the Falling Channel as ECB Speakers Meet a Firm Dollar
1.11667 +0.00038 (+0.03%) on the FXCM feed Previous close 1.11629 | Range 1.11585 to 1.11700
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction. The euro fell 0.5% on Tuesday as the dollar index closed near 102.24, its highest since mid-October, and December Fed-hike bets firmed. German final inflation printed in line at 2.8%, so ECB speakers Cipollone and Lagarde are the remaining regional tests, and without US data the dollar sets the tone.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.10400
- Support 1
- 1.11050
- Resistance 1
- 1.11930
- Resistance 2
- 1.13180
- Price (1.11667) is under all three averages (1.1193, 1.1318 and 1.1408). Main catalysts: ECB speakers Cipollone and Lagarde (German final CPI was in line at 2.8%) and the dollar index (Tuesday close 102.24).
- RSI 43.76 over its 40.68 average: a small bounce from weak levels. A close under 1.1105, the 2026 low set on 29 October, would be a new yearly low and targets 1.1070 and the channel floor near 1.1040; a close above 1.1193 opens 1.1318.
Setup: Short at 1.11900, stop 1.12250, targets 1.11450, 1.11150, 1.10700. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.1 / 3.4, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close beyond 1.12250, or if Lagarde sounds clearly hawkish and the dollar index falls back under 101.7. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
GBP/USD | Investing.com pair, FXCM chart feed
GBP/USD Analysis: Pound Tests the Rising Trendline Under the 1.3352 Average, With 1.3320 the Floor to Watch
1.33497 +0.00066 (+0.05%) on the FXCM feed Previous close 1.33431 | Range 1.33324 to 1.33556
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with low conviction. Sterling dropped back under 1.34 after hot US CPI, and BoE’s 4% Bank Rate (raised 8–1 on 5 November, with one vote for 50 bp) is the cushion keeping losses contained. The UK docket is light, so the pound follows the dollar and Iran headlines.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.32700
- Support 1
- 1.33200
- Resistance 1
- 1.33700
- Resistance 2
- 1.33960
- Price (1.33497) is just under the 1.3352, 1.3369 and 1.3396 averages. Main catalysts: the dollar after CPI, Fed speakers and any BoE commentary.
- RSI 49.00 under its 54.45 average: neutral and turning down. A close under 1.3320 breaks the trendline and targets 1.3270; a close above 1.3396 puts the 1.3500 November high in play.
Setup: Short at 1.33750, stop 1.34150, targets 1.33200, 1.32850, 1.32400. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.2 / 3.4, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close beyond 1.34150, or if the pound closes back above 1.3396 on dollar weakness. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
USD/CAD | Investing.com pair, OANDA chart feed
USD/CAD Analysis: Price Presses the Top of the Triangle at 1.42 as a Firm Dollar and Cheaper Oil Weigh on the Loonie
1.41994 +0.00108 (+0.08%) on the OANDA feed Previous close 1.41886 | Range 1.41828 to 1.42072
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips with medium conviction. USD/CAD jumped from under 1.40 last week to the triangle top near 1.42 as the dollar rebounded and Brent fell toward 90, near its lowest since early September. Macklem’s hawkish tone has not been enough to stop the move, though a clean break needs the 1.4205 trendline to give way.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.40650
- Support 1
- 1.41050
- Resistance 1
- 1.42050
- Resistance 2
- 1.43000
- Price (1.41994) is above all three averages (1.4065, 1.4061 and 1.4044). Main catalysts: oil on US–Iran headlines, the dollar index and BoC–Fed policy talk.
- RSI 63.09 over its 45.65 average: strong momentum nearing overbought. A close above 1.4205 targets 1.4250 and 1.4300; a close under 1.4105 puts the 1.4065 averages in play.
Setup: Long at 1.41500, stop 1.41050, targets 1.42050, 1.42500, 1.43000. Reward:risk 1.2 / 2.2 / 3.3, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close beyond 1.41050, or if oil rebounds sharply on a Hormuz setback and the loonie closes above its recent range. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
USD/CHF | Investing.com pair, FXCM chart feed
USD/CHF Analysis: Rebound Off the Channel Floor Clears the 0.8240 Averages, With 0.8300 the Next Test
0.82573 +0.00054 (+0.07%) on the FXCM feed Previous close 0.82519 | Range 0.82391 to 0.82630
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips with low conviction. The pair bounced from the rising channel floor and is back above the 20 and 50-day averages as the dollar strengthened, but the franc has support from an SNB that is under pressure from rising Swiss inflation (October CPI 1.5% year on year) and building December hike bets.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.81650
- Support 1
- 0.82400
- Resistance 1
- 0.83000
- Resistance 2
- 0.83900
- Price (0.82573) is above the 0.8239 and 0.8234 averages and well above the 0.8163 average. Main catalysts: the dollar index, Swiss rate-hike talk and safe-haven flows on Iran headlines.
- RSI 53.11 over its 47.40 average: momentum has turned up from neutral. A close above 0.8300 targets 0.8340 and 0.8385; a close under 0.8210 puts the channel floor back in play.
Setup: Long at 0.82450, stop 0.82100, targets 0.83000, 0.83400, 0.83850. Reward:risk 1.6 / 2.7 / 4.0, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close beyond 0.82100, or if safe-haven demand lifts the franc and USD/CHF closes under 0.8210. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
The dollar is firm after hot CPI, so we prefer buying dips in USD/CAD near 1.4150 (medium conviction), USD/JPY near 158.30 and USD/CHF near 0.8245 (low), and selling bounces in EUR/USD near 1.1190 (medium), AUD/USD near 0.6890 (medium) and GBP/USD near 1.3375 (low). German CPI has already printed in line at 2.8%, so the session risks are the ECB speakers, the London open at 08:00 GMT, Japanese intervention talk near 159 and the US stock open at 14:30 GMT. A 4-hour close above 1.1225 in EUR/USD or below 157.80 in USD/JPY would change the picture.
Trade USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the forex outlook for today?
The dollar is firm after hot October CPI, with a December Fed hike now fully priced and a 50 bp move at roughly 12% to 15%. USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF lean higher on dips, while EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD lean lower on bounces. US bonds are closed for Veterans Day, so liquidity may be thin in the US afternoon.
Which forex trade ideas are live today?
Long USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF on pullbacks, and short EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD on bounces, each with a stop and three targets valid until 21:00 GMT.
What time are the key events in GMT?
German final CPI at 07:00 (released: 2.8% on the year, in line), ECB’s Cipollone and Lagarde during the European session, London open at 08:00, MBA mortgage applications at 12:00, US stocks open at 14:30, setups expire at 21:00 and daily candles close at 22:00 GMT.
Why is the dollar rising today?
October CPI beat expectations at 0.4% headline and 0.3% core, Treasury yields moved back above 5%, and Waller left the door open to a 50 bp December hike. The dollar index closed at 102.24, its highest since mid-October.
Could Japan intervene in USD/JPY?
Intervention risk rises as the pair approaches 159 to 160, which ING flagged as a possible level earlier this autumn. That is why the USD/JPY idea has low conviction and a fixed stop.
