Gold Fights to Hold $3,900 Before US PPI as Fed Hike Bets Pressure Metals, WTI Steadies Near $89 and Wheat Bounces Off a 4½-Month Low | Technical Analysis – Commodity Report | 13 Nov 2026
LIVE Commodities | Friday 13 November 2026
Gold Fights to Hold $3,900 Before US PPI as Fed Hike Bets Pressure Metals, WTI Steadies Near $89 and Wheat Bounces Off a 4½-Month Low
Market Overview
Commodities are trading the same story as the dollar: Fed hike bets, and US PPI at 13:30 GMT can either confirm the pressure or let metals bounce. At the 08:55 GMT chart capture, gold was at 3,897.72 (+0.55%), silver at 49.95 (−0.16%), aluminium at 2,987.8 (−0.77%), natural gas at 3.270 (−2.10%), WTI crude at 88.99 (+0.34%) and wheat at 608.0 (+2.11%). Markets price an 89% chance of a 25 basis point December Fed hike and 11% for 50 basis points, the 10-year yield is near 5.1% and the dollar is near a 19-month high.
Metals are heavy, energy is split and grains are bouncing. Gold is rebounding from a one-year low but stays under 4,000, silver is lagging with the gold/silver ratio near 78, and aluminium is leaning on its wedge floor. Natural gas faces EIA storage at 15:30 GMT, WTI is held up by Hormuz headlines but capped by the US blockade, and wheat is testing its 20-day average. Desk plan: sell bounces in gold, silver, natural gas, WTI and wheat, and buy a dip in aluminium with low conviction. US PPI has not printed yet.
Key highlights
- Gold: Price 3,897.72 is under all three averages; 3,925 caps and 3,857 supports.
- Aluminium: Price 2,987.8 is under all three averages; 3,036 caps and 2,960 supports.
- Silver: Price 49.95 is under all three averages; 51.00 caps and 49.00 supports.
- Natural Gas: Price 3.270 is above the averages at the channel top; 3.37 caps and 3.20 supports.
- Crude Oil: Price 88.99 has broken below the triangle line; 91.50 caps and 87.74 supports.
- Wheat: Price 608.0 is under all three averages; 620 caps and 595 supports.
What’s Moving Commodities Today
Gold bounces off a one-year low near 3,900 as markets price an 89% chance of a December Fed hike
Spot gold hit its lowest since October 2025 on Thursday and rebounded on bargain hunting today. CME FedWatch shows 89% odds of a 25 basis point hike in December and 11% for 50 basis points, up from zero before Tuesday’s hot CPI, and NY Fed’s Williams said more hikes are likely. A spot close back above 4,000 would signal the added hike risk is fading.
Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, Kitco, TradingKey, 13 Nov 2026
US October PPI at 13:30 GMT is the key test, with a +0.4% monthly rise expected and core at +0.3%
Fed officials have talked up tightening, including Waller floating a 50 basis point hike and Logan backing at least two more 25 basis point moves. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5.1% and the dollar is near a 19-month high. Bowman speaks at 15:50 GMT; a hot print would hit gold, silver and aluminium.
Source: TradingKey, NordFX, Trading Economics, Reuters, 13 Nov 2026
Oil holds near 89 for WTI and 95.4 for Brent as the US blockade of Iran stays and tanker attacks are unverified
Brent settled at 95.82 (+3.3%) and WTI at 88.74 (+2.6%) on Thursday after Iran said four tankers were hit in Hormuz and the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil sites. Trump said no Iran deal is needed and the blockade continues, which Reuters said lowers the chance of renewed large-scale fighting. Both benchmarks are heading for a second weekly decline.
Source: Reuters via Investing.com, CNBC, TRT World, 13 Nov 2026
Natural gas drops 2.1% after the EIA lifted its storage outlook and cut its winter price forecast
The EIA expects 3,840 Bcf in storage at the end of November, 67 Bcf above its prior view, and sees Henry Hub averaging $2.87 from November to March, 16% lower than last month’s forecast. The weekly storage report is due at 15:30 GMT, after a 77 Bcf injection to 3,801 Bcf the week before, with warmer-than-normal weather forecast across the central and northern US.
Source: EIA, FXEmpire, Reuters, 13 Nov 2026
Aluminium slips under 3,000 even after the LME prompt spread hit its widest since 1990
LME cash aluminium fell 2.11% to 3,155 on Thursday while the cash-to-three-month backwardation hit 176.80, the widest since November 1990, with LME stocks at 226,350 tonnes. Three-month aluminium fell 1.5% to 3,022 and copper touched a four-month low at 13,515 on AI-demand worries and US rate-hike expectations.
Source: Reuters via Kitco, Discovery Alert, Westmetall, 13 Nov 2026
Wheat rebounds from a 4½-month low as Black Sea export disruption offsets large Southern Hemisphere crops
Chicago wheat rose 1.1% to 590.5 after touching 582, the lowest since 30 June, with Russian and Ukrainian shipments largely halted since mid-August. US wheat led grains lower on Thursday as the dollar hit a 19-month high, and CBOT wheat is still down about 25% from its September highs.
Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, Grain Central, 13 Nov 2026
Silver slips under 50 and lags gold as the dollar strengthens and the ratio widens toward 78
At 49.95 silver is down about 5% from 52.76 on 9 November and is trading near its early-November lows while gold bounces. Indian MCX gold futures are also hovering near their 52-week low.
Source: Fortune, Zee Business, TradingView chart, 13 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in gold, aluminium, silver, natural gas, crude oil and wheat. All times are GMT.
- US PPI, export sales
- 13:30
- Fri 13 Nov, 13:30 GMT
- PPI +0.4% and core +0.3% expected; US grain export sales also print, the key test for gold, silver, aluminium and wheat
- LBMA gold PM price
- 15:00
- Fri 13 Nov, 15:00 GMT
- Benchmark set for gold and silver; watch whether spot holds above 3,900
- EIA natural gas storage
- 15:30
- Fri 13 Nov, 15:30 GMT
- Week to 6 November after a 77 Bcf injection to 3,801 Bcf the week before
- Bowman speaks
- 15:50
- Fri 13 Nov, 15:50 GMT
- Fed Vice Chair for Supervision; any backing for 50 basis points hits metals
- Daly speaks
- 17:00
- Fri 13 Nov, 17:00 GMT
- San Francisco Fed president follows Williams’ message that more hikes are likely
- Setup expiry and daily close
- 21:00
- Fri 13 Nov, 21:00 and 22:00 GMT
- Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT and daily candles close at 22:00 GMT
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order gold, aluminium, silver, natural gas, crude oil and wheat, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Short | 3,950 | 4,010 | 3,885 | 3,857 | 1.1 / 1.6 | Medium |
| Aluminium | Long | 2,945 | 2,905 | 3,000 | 3,036 | 1.4 / 2.3 | Low |
| Silver | Short | 51.00 | 51.90 | 49.80 | 49.00 | 1.3 / 2.2 | Medium |
| Natural Gas | Short | 3.36 | 3.45 | 3.25 | 3.15 | 1.2 / 2.3 | Medium |
| Crude Oil | Short | 91.50 | 93.40 | 89.00 | 87.00 | 1.3 / 2.4 | Low |
| Wheat | Short | 622 | 637 | 604 | 592 | 1.2 / 2.0 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each instrument is in its section below. Levels come from the daily charts captured at 08:55 GMT on the TVC (gold, silver, WTI), Capital.com (aluminium), NYMEX (natural gas) and SelfInvest CFD (wheat) feeds. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and US PPI at 13:30 GMT and EIA storage at 15:30 GMT can gap prices through them. Five ideas lean on a firm dollar and soft demand (short gold, silver, natural gas, WTI and wheat) and aluminium is a dip-buy, so a hawkish Fed surprise would help five and a soft PPI print would hurt them. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
US PPI at 13:30 GMT, EIA storage at 15:30 GMT and the Bowman and Daly speeches are the swing factors for the rest of today.
If PPI runs hot or Fed speakers back 50 basis points, yields rise and commodities extend lower
A hot PPI print and hawkish talk from Bowman or Daly would lift Fed hike pricing and the 10-year yield above 5.1%. Gold, silver and aluminium would slide toward their supports, WTI would lose its 87.74 average and wheat would give back the bounce.
- Gold3,857, then 3,815
- Aluminium2,960, then 2,935
- Silver49.00, then 48.40
- Natural Gas3.20, then 3.01
- Crude Oil (WTI)87.74, then 86.00
- Wheat595, then 580
If PPI undershoots or yields fall, the dollar eases and commodities bounce into resistance
A soft PPI print would trim hike odds and let gold test 4,000. A Hormuz flare-up would lift WTI, and a colder gas forecast or a small injection would lift natural gas.
- Gold3,925, then 4,000
- Aluminium3,036, then 3,118
- Silver51.00, then 52.90
- Natural Gas3.37, then 3.41
- Crude Oil (WTI)91.50, then 94.93
- Wheat620, then 640
Gold (XAU/USD) | Investing.com quote, TVC chart feed
Gold Analysis: Bargain Hunters Lift Bullion Off a One-Year Low but $4,000 Caps the Rebound Before US PPI at 13:30 GMT
3,897.72 +21.26 (+0.55%) on the TVC feed Previous close 3,876.46 | Range 3,875.20 to 3,923.14 | Kitco 3,896.50 at 08:01 GMT; Reuters spot 3,918.59 at 06:00 GMT
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction. Spot gold hit its lowest since October 2025 on Thursday at about 3,853 to 3,866, and is bouncing on bargain hunting, but a December Fed hike is priced at 89% and a 50 basis point move at 11%. A hot PPI print would extend the slide, and a spot close back above 4,000 would signal the hike risk is fading.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 3,815
- Support 1
- 3,857
- Resistance 1
- 3,925
- Resistance 2
- 4,000
- Price (3,897.72) is under all three averages (4,024.61, 4,155.17 and 4,192.42). Main catalysts: US PPI at 13:30 GMT, the LBMA PM price at 15:00 GMT, Bowman at 15:50 and Daly at 17:00 GMT, and the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.1%.
- RSI 38.77 under its 41.82 average: momentum is weak but not oversold, so rallies into 3,950 are likely to meet sellers. A close under 3,857 opens 3,815; a close above 4,000 puts the downtrend in doubt.
Setup: Short at 3,950, stop 4,010, targets 3,885, 3,857 and 3,815. Reward:risk 1.1 / 1.6 / 2.2, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 4,010, or if PPI undershoots and the 10-year yield falls. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Aluminium (ALIUSD) | Investing.com quote, Capital.com chart feed
Aluminium Analysis: Price Leans on the Wedge Floor Near 2,950 After LME Backwardation Hit a 36-Year High
2,987.8 −23.3 (−0.77%) on the Capital.com feed Previous close 3,011.1 | Range 2,980.1 to 3,032.1 | Reuters: LME three-month 3,022 (−1.5%) at 17:05 GMT Thursday; LME cash 3,155
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips with low conviction. LME cash aluminium fell 2.11% to 3,155 on Thursday yet the cash-to-three-month backwardation widened to 176.80, the widest since November 1990, with LME stocks of 226,350 tonnes down about 56% since January. The squeeze supports dips, but a hawkish Fed and weak industrial metals sentiment (copper at a four-month low) keep the trend down.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2,935
- Support 1
- 2,960
- Resistance 1
- 3,036
- Resistance 2
- 3,118
- Price (2,987.8) is under all three averages (3,036.2, 3,118.1 and 3,154.2) and about 55 points above the wedge floor. Main catalysts: US PPI at 13:30 GMT, dollar direction, LME stocks and the prompt spread.
- RSI 40.95 under its 46.11 average: momentum is soft but not oversold. A dip to 2,945 near the wedge floor is the better entry than chasing; a close under 2,930 breaks the wedge and targets 2,880.
Setup: Long at 2,945, stop 2,905, targets 3,000, 3,036 and 3,118. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.3 / 4.3, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 2,905, or if the dollar surges after PPI and copper breaks lower. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Silver (XAG/USD) | Investing.com quote, TVC chart feed
Silver Analysis: Metal Trades Under 50 and Lags Gold’s Bounce as the Falling Channel Pulls Toward 48.40
49.95 −0.0796 (−0.16%) on the TVC feed Previous close 50.03 | Range 49.60 to 50.79 | Fortune: 52.76 on 9 Nov; gold/silver ratio near 78
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction. Silver is down about 5% from 52.76 on 9 November and is slipping while gold rebounds, so the gold/silver ratio is near 78. The same hawkish-Fed, strong-dollar backdrop as gold applies, with extra industrial-demand sensitivity.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 48.40
- Support 1
- 49.00
- Resistance 1
- 51.00
- Resistance 2
- 52.90
- Price (49.95) is under all three averages (52.89, 58.55 and 60.14). Main catalysts: US PPI at 13:30 GMT, Bowman at 15:50 and Daly at 17:00 GMT, and gold’s reaction to $4,000.
- RSI 35.34 just over its 34.74 average: momentum is weak and near oversold, so a bounce to 51.00 is the better entry than selling the lows. A close under 49.00 targets 48.40; a close above 52.90 breaks the 20-day average cap.
Setup: Short at 51.00, stop 51.90, targets 49.80, 49.00 and 48.40. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.2 / 2.9, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 51.90, or if PPI undershoots and gold reclaims 4,000. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Natural Gas (NYMEX futures) | Investing.com quote, NYMEX chart feed
Natural Gas Analysis: Rejection at the Channel Top Puts the EIA Storage Report at 15:30 GMT in Focus
3.270 −0.070 (−2.10%) on the NYMEX feed Previous close 3.340 | Range 3.269 to 3.368 | NYMEX front-month futures; EIA Henry Hub winter forecast $2.87
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction. Futures failed at the falling channel top near 3.30 to 3.40 and are down 2.1% today, while the EIA cut its winter Henry Hub forecast to an average of $2.87 and raised its end-November storage view to 3,840 Bcf on a mild start to the month. Storage is above the five-year average and below last year, so a bigger-than-expected injection at 15:30 GMT would add pressure.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 3.01
- Support 1
- 3.20
- Resistance 1
- 3.37
- Resistance 2
- 3.41
- Price (3.270) is above all three averages (3.011, 2.970 and 2.953) but has been rejected at the channel top. Main catalysts: EIA storage at 15:30 GMT (the previous week added 77 Bcf to 3,801 Bcf) and weather forecasts showing warmth across the central and northern US.
- RSI 59.85 over its 53.02 average: momentum is still positive but rolling over from a high. A close under 3.20 opens 3.01; a sustained close above 3.41 confirms the channel breakout and targets 3.60.
Setup: Short at 3.36, stop 3.45, targets 3.25, 3.15 and 3.01. Reward:risk 1.2 / 2.3 / 3.9, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 3.45, or if storage shows a large withdrawal or colder forecasts emerge. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
WTI Crude Oil | Investing.com quote, TVC chart feed
WTI Crude Analysis: Oil Holds 88.99 Under the Broken Triangle Line as the US Blockade Stays and Hormuz Risks Linger
88.99 +0.30 (+0.34%) on the TVC feed Previous close 88.69 | Range 88.04 to 89.20 | Reuters: WTI 88.52 at 02:42 GMT, Brent 95.41; Thursday WTI settle 88.74
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with low conviction because headline risk cuts both ways. Brent settled at 95.82 and WTI at 88.74 on Thursday after Iran said four tankers were hit in Hormuz and the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi sites, but Trump said no Iran deal is needed and the US blockade stays, easing escalation fears. Brent is on course for a 2.4% weekly loss and WTI 2.5%, after drops of 16% and 13% the week before.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 86.00
- Support 1
- 87.74
- Resistance 1
- 91.50
- Resistance 2
- 94.93
- Price (88.99) is above the 87.74 average and under the 94.93 and 95.27 averages. Main catalysts: Hormuz and Saudi shipping headlines, US PPI at 13:30 GMT and dollar direction.
- RSI 41.95 under its 47.13 average: momentum is bearish but not oversold. A close under 87.74 targets 86.00; a close above 94.93 puts the triangle breakdown in doubt.
Setup: Short at 91.50, stop 93.40, targets 89.00, 87.00 and 84.50. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.4 / 3.7, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 93.40, or if a major Hormuz or Saudi supply disruption is confirmed. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Wheat (CBOT CFD) | Investing.com quote, CFD, SelfInvest chart feed
Wheat Analysis: Bounce Off a 4½-Month Low Heads for the 20-Day Average at 619.6 as Black Sea Disruption Offsets Big Harvests
608.0 +12.6 (+2.11%) on the CFD, SelfInvest feed Previous close 595.4 | Range 595.3 to 608.6 | Reuters: CBOT 590.5 (+1.1%) at 03:52 GMT after a low of 582, the lowest since 30 June
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with low conviction. Chicago wheat fell to 582, its lowest since 30 June, then rebounded as Black Sea exports stay disrupted, but large crops in Australia and Argentina and a strong dollar cap rallies. US wheat led grains lower on Thursday (Chicago −2.54%, Kansas −2.70% after the USDA cut its HRW export outlook), while Matif is up 4.26% on the week.
