AUD/USD Steady Near 0.7070 After RBA Minutes.
AUD/USD Analysis: Australian Dollar Steady Near 0.7070 After RBA Minutes
What’s Happening
The Australian Dollar remains muted, with AUD/USD hovering near 0.7070 during European trading. The pair is slightly lower after modest prior-session gains, as markets digest the latest minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
While the RBA reaffirmed its data-dependent stance, a steadier US Dollar is limiting upside in AUD/USD today.
Market Overview (Fundamental Analysis)
The RBA’s February meeting minutes revealed that the latest rate hike was driven by stronger-than-expected economic data, persistent inflation pressures, and relatively loose financial conditions. Policymakers emphasized that without further action, inflation would likely remain above target for an extended period.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that renewed inflation pressures and resilient consumer spending left the Board with limited alternatives but to tighten policy. However, officials stressed there is no preset path for future rate moves, reinforcing a flexible policy outlook.
Attention now shifts to upcoming domestic data:
- Q4 2025 Wage Price Index
- January labour market report
Both releases will be critical in shaping the next phase of the RBA’s policy outlook and the broader Australian Dollar forecast.
On the US side, the Dollar remains supported after recent gains, though softer January CPI data has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts later this year. Markets are awaiting:
- Fed meeting minutes
- Q4 GDP data
- Core PCE price index
While January Nonfarm Payrolls were robust and unemployment declined, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, keeping policy expectations finely balanced.
Technical Snapshot (Weekly / Medium-Term Outlook)
| Indicator | Reading / Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Trend | Uptrend (ascending channel) | Bullish bias |
| Key Resistance | 0.7165 | Ceiling level |
| Key Support | 0.6946 | Floor level |
| RSI | 60+ (Buying zone) | Positive momentum |
| MACD | Neutral to Positive | Directional support |
| Moving Averages | Above 50 & 200 SMA | Strong long-term structure |
AUD/USD remains within an upward channel and continues to trade above its 50- and 200-week SMAs, reinforcing a constructive medium-term technical outlook. However, price action suggests consolidation below 0.7165 resistance, with momentum indicators showing moderate but not overstretched bullish conditions.
Trade Idea (Setup Section)
- Trade Type: Limit Buy
- Entry Level: 0.6997
- Take Profit: 0.7219
- Stop Loss: 0.6898
- Rationale: Price is approaching a key support zone within an established uptrend, with technical structure favoring continuation if support holds.
Alternate Scenario:
If AUD/USD breaks below 0.6946, downside pressure could intensify toward deeper support levels, potentially shifting the near-term bias to neutral or bearish.
What to Watch Next
Key drivers for the AUD/USD forecast include:
- Australia’s Wage Price Index and employment data
- Minutes and commentary from the Federal Reserve
- US GDP and core PCE inflation data
- Broader US Dollar momentum and global risk sentiment
Key Takeaway
AUD/USD remains supported within an ascending channel above 0.6946, with the broader technical outlook staying bullish as long as this key support zone holds, even as US Dollar strength tempers near-term gains.
Q&A – AUD/USD Forecast
What is the current AUD/USD technical outlook?
The AUD/USD technical outlook remains constructive, with price trading above major moving averages and holding within an upward channel.
Why is AUD/USD trading near 0.7070 today?
AUD/USD today reflects the RBA’s data-dependent stance following its latest meeting minutes, alongside steady US Dollar performance.
What are the key levels in the AUD/USD analysis?
Immediate support stands at 0.6946, while resistance at 0.7165 is crucial for confirming further upside in the AUD/USD forecast.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to trade.