CAPITAL STREET FX  |  GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Markets are navigating a complex macro environment defined by three dominant forces: a hawkish Federal Reserve, escalating geopolitical risk, and uneven corporate earnings. The FOMC’s January minutes are revealing that several policymakers are remaining open to additional rate hikes if inflation stays elevated — a stance that is pushing Treasury yields higher, strengthening the U.S. Dollar, and keeping rate-sensitive assets under pressure. Meanwhile, U.S. equity markets are defying this headwind and posting gains, suggesting that investors are interpreting the economic resilience as supportive for earnings. Asian markets are heading into a pivotal session with PBoC policy decisions and reduced Lunar New Year liquidity.

U.S. SESSION RECAP — STOCKS ADVANCE DESPITE HAWKISH FED

U.S. equity markets are closing higher on the session even as the FOMC minutes are delivering a firmer-than-expected tone — a development that is initially surprising some participants but ultimately proving insufficient to derail the risk-on mood. Stronger-than-expected January industrial production figures are providing fundamental support, with manufacturing output registering a sharp rise that is reinforcing the narrative of economic resilience. Treasury yields are climbing in response, with the 2-year yield rising 2.7 basis points to 3.459% and the 10-year yield increasing 2.5 basis points to 4.083% — moves that are reflecting rising expectations for a higher-for-longer rate environment. The U.S. Dollar Index is strengthening as near-term rate cut expectations are fading across the curve.

📌 MARKET CONTEXT: The simultaneous rise in both stocks and bond yields is reflecting a ‘good news is good news’ interpretation of the strong industrial data — markets are choosing to emphasise economic strength over the hawkish Fed signal. This divergence is worth monitoring; if yields continue climbing, equity market resilience could eventually be tested.

Global Index Snapshot

U.S. Treasury Yields

SESSION-BY-SESSION OUTLOOK — FEBRUARY 19, 2026

ASIAN SESSION FOCUS — PBOC, EMPLOYMENT DATA & LUNAR NEW YEAR

The Asian session is entering with a cautious tone following the Fed minutes, and is operating under two significant structural constraints: thin Lunar New Year liquidity across Chinese and regional markets, and a cluster of high-importance policy events that are capable of moving emerging-market currencies materially.

Key catalysts the Asian session is watching:

• People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Interest Rate Decision — Outcome will influence CNY and regional risk sentiment even with reduced holiday liquidity

• Bank Indonesia & Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas — Policy rate announcements; potential AUD/USD and EM cross rate movers

• Australia Employment Report — Consensus is expecting +20,000 jobs and unemployment ticking up to 4.2%; AUD/USD sensitivity is high

• South Korea Producer Price Index — Early inflation signal for the region

Gold is continuing to benefit from residual U.S. dollar softness, while crypto markets are remaining under pressure from the hawkish Fed backdrop and rising USD.

EUROPEAN MARKETS — MIXED EARNINGS WEIGH ON SENTIMENT

European equities are edging lower as mixed corporate earnings are creating sector-level divergence. Airbus is declining sharply as aviation sector concerns are weighing on the stock, while mining giant Rio Tinto is also losing ground on commodity price sensitivity. Nestlé is providing partial support with gains, reflecting defensive consumer staples resilience. The European corporate earnings season is producing uneven results that are making it difficult for pan-European indices to sustain a consistent directional move.

• Airbus — Declining sharply; aviation supply chain pressures are continuing

• Rio Tinto — Falling; linked to commodity market mixed signals

• Nestlé — Advancing; defensive consumer staples outperforming

• FTSE 100 — Technical trend remains positive but commodity-linked sectors are creating near-term headwinds

U.S. DOLLAR — REGAINING STRENGTH POST-FOMC MINUTES

The U.S. Dollar is moving higher after the January FOMC minutes are revealing that several policymakers are remaining open to further rate hikes if inflation fails to continue its descent toward the 2% target. This is marking a notable tone shift from recent communications and is highlighting a growing divergence within the committee on the economic outlook. The DXY is climbing toward a one-week high, which is creating headwinds for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and commodity-priced assets while supporting USD/JPY and USD/CAD. Near-term USD direction is now pivoting on Friday’s PCE Price Index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

📌 TRADER INSIGHT: The USD’s strength is being driven by a repricing of rate expectations — not by genuine economic outperformance alone. This creates a dual-scenario framework: if Friday’s PCE data surprises higher, USD rally extends sharply; if PCE disappoints, the recent USD gains could reverse equally quickly. Positioning conservatively ahead of Friday is prudent.

MARKET OUTLOOK — ELEVATED VOLATILITY ENVIRONMENT

Volatility is remaining elevated as markets are simultaneously processing hawkish central bank signals, escalating geopolitical flashpoints in the Middle East and Ukraine, and a dense schedule of economic data over the next 48 hours. The interplay between the Fed’s rate path, global growth indicators, and geopolitical risk premium is creating a complex decision-making environment for active traders. Breakout and breakdown levels across all asset classes are drawing significant attention, with traders watching for confirmation signals before committing to directional positions.

Key market themes heading into the next session:

• Fed Policy Divergence: Internal FOMC divisions are creating uncertainty — watch Kashkari, Bostic, and Bowman comments for signals

• Geopolitical Risk Premium: Middle East tensions are supporting oil and gold; any escalation de-escalation will move these assets sharply

• Friday PCE — The Week’s Defining Event: Will determine USD direction, rate cut expectations, and commodity/crypto near-term trend

• Thin Asian Liquidity: Lunar New Year holiday trading is amplifying volatility on smaller-volume moves — be cautious with position sizing

• AUD Watch: Australia employment data is the session’s main event for forex traders; AUD/USD reaction will set the tone

EQUITY INDEX TECHNICAL SUMMARY

DOW JONES (DJI)

The Dow Jones is currently trading in a range-bound pattern. The +0.26% gain is constructive but insufficient to confirm a fresh trend leg. A clear break and daily close above the key overhead resistance cluster is required to validate a new uptrend. Absent that, the index is vulnerable to mean-reversion selling from range resistance. Near-term support is at the 49,300 area; resistance near 49,900.

S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 is registering a 0.56% advance and is approaching a pivotal technical threshold that is separating the bull and bear camps. Near-term bias is neutral to slightly corrective at these levels. Options market positioning is suggesting that 6,900 is acting as a magnetic level with significant open interest. A sustained close above 6,900 would shift the near-term bias firmly bullish.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

The Nasdaq is leading the day’s gains at +0.78%, reflecting continued resilience in large-cap technology. AI-related demand narratives are continuing to underpin the sector even as higher yields theoretically compress growth stock valuations. The index is showing relative strength versus the broader market — a positive signal for risk appetite.

FTSE 100 (UKX)

The FTSE 100’s underlying technical trend is remaining positive on longer-term charts, but commodity-linked sectors — particularly mining and energy — are creating meaningful near-term headwinds. Airbus and Rio Tinto declines are acting as significant index-level drag today. Traders are watching whether defensive sectors can absorb the cyclical weakness.

RISK DISCLAIMER: This report is produced by Capital Street FX for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading financial markets involves significant risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Visit capitalstreetfx.com for full terms and risk disclosures.