Commodities Mixed as Gold Slips, Oil Holds Firm
Commodities trade mixed in thin Lunar New Year liquidity, with gold and silver consolidating, oil supported by Middle East tensions, and natural gas hovering near key technical levels ahead of Fed minutes and major data releases.
Market Overview
Global commodity markets are experiencing subdued volatility as Lunar New Year holidays keep much of Asia offline, leading to thinner liquidity conditions. Investors remain cautious ahead of the release of the latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee, which could offer fresh insight into the policy path of the Federal Reserve.
Safe-haven demand has moderated amid easing tensions between the United States and Iran, though geopolitical risks remain present in energy markets. Meanwhile, oil prices are drawing support from developments in the Middle East, including strategic concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.
Traders are also closely monitoring the upcoming interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and UK inflation data, both of which may influence currency and commodity flows later in the session.
Major News Bullets
- Gold drifts lower near $4,900 as holiday-thinned liquidity tempers volatility.
- Silver rebounds nearly 3% but remains capped below key long-term resistance.
- WTI crude trades above $62 as supply concerns resurface in the Middle East.
- Natural gas steadies near $3.00 amid range-bound trading and weak momentum signals.
- Markets await FOMC minutes for guidance on future US interest rate policy.
Technical Summary (Table Format)
| Asset | Overall Sentiment | Market Direction | RSI Status | Stochastic | Key Resistance (R1/R2) | Key Support (S1/S2) | Trade Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Neutral | Buy | 52.02 (Bullish) | Neutral | 5426.94 / 5731.18 | 4442.03 / 4137.79 | Buy 4865.00 / TP 5118.00 / SL 4762.00 |
| Silver | Neutral | Buy | 44.87 (Neutral) | Neutral | 77.80 / 92.15 | 69.99 / 63.73 | Buy 77.80 / TP 92.16 / SL 71.28 |
| WTI Crude | Neutral | Buy | 50.79 (Bullish) | Neutral | 66.73 / 69.26 | 58.55 / 56.02 | Buy 61.15 / TP 65.90 / SL 58.92 |
| Natural Gas | Bearish | Sell | 36.01 (Bearish) | Neutral | 6.14 / 6.84 | 3.89 / 3.19 | Sell 3.32 / TP 2.88 / SL 3.45 |
Analyst Commentary Per Asset
GOLD
Gold (XAU/USD) is under mild pressure near the $4,900 level as liquidity remains thin during the Lunar New Year holiday period. Easing geopolitical tensions have softened safe-haven demand, while traders await clarity from the Federal Reserve minutes.
Technically, mixed moving average crossovers and a neutral RSI suggest consolidation rather than a clear directional breakout. While short-term pressure persists, the broader structure remains constructive above key support levels. A dovish tone in the Fed minutes could weaken the US Dollar and provide upside momentum.
SILVER
Silver (XAG/USD) has rebounded strongly from the $72 base, rising nearly 2.8%, but remains constrained beneath a long-term descending trendline from its $100 peak.
The 50-period and 200-period moving averages form a significant resistance band, limiting bullish follow-through. RSI and stochastic readings reflect indecision. A sustained move above $79.20 would be required to confirm renewed upside momentum.
CRUDE OIL (WTI)
West Texas Intermediate trades above $62.00, supported by renewed geopolitical risk. Iran’s partial closure of sections of the Strait of Hormuz has heightened supply disruption concerns, as approximately one-third of global seaborne crude flows through this route.
Technically, short-term moving averages signal consolidation, but the RSI near the 50 level indicates balanced momentum. Inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute could provide the next directional catalyst.
NATURAL GAS
Natural Gas futures remain anchored near $3.00, reflecting market indecision. Despite the broader uptrend indicated by the 200-period EMA, short-term momentum has weakened considerably.
All major moving averages are signaling bearish crossovers, and RSI remains in the sell zone. A decisive break below $3.00 could accelerate downside pressure toward the $2.67 area, while recovery above $3.33 would be needed to stabilize sentiment.
AI Q&A
Q1: Why is volatility subdued across commodities?
Thin liquidity during Lunar New Year holidays reduces trading volumes, leading to narrower price swings and muted volatility.
Q2: What could move gold prices today?
The release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes. Any dovish signals regarding interest rates could weaken the US Dollar and support gold.
Q3: Why is oil holding firm despite easing tensions?
Supply concerns tied to developments in the Strait of Hormuz continue to underpin prices, as the route is critical for global oil shipments.
Q4: What is the key level for Natural Gas?
The $3.00 psychological level. A break below may open the door for further downside momentum.
Key Takeaways
- Thin liquidity is limiting volatility across metals and energy markets.
- Gold and silver remain range-bound, awaiting Fed policy clarity.
- WTI crude holds gains amid Middle East supply risks.
- Natural gas shows short-term weakness despite longer-term structural support.
- Upcoming central bank decisions and inflation data may inject fresh volatility.
