Gold entered the week on the back foot despite elevated geopolitical risk. The primary constraint is the Federal Reserve’s refusal to pivot, with March NFP at 228,000 reinforcing a hold stance and pushing real yields higher. Gold, a non-yielding asset, loses its relative appeal in a higher-for-longer rate environment, explaining the ongoing corrective sequence from the February all-time high of ,594.56.

Central bank demand remains a structural support. China’s PBoC extended its gold purchases for the 15th consecutive month in early 2026, and the trend of reserve diversification away from dollar assets continues broadly. However, the pace has slowed materially, and speculative positioning — as measured by COT data — shows net longs being pared back from multi-year highs, adding selling pressure to the technical correction.

Safe-haven demand from the Iran war provides periodic bursts of buying, but each rally is being faded at Fibonacci resistance. The weekly close below the 0.5 retracement at ,743.39 is technically significant and keeps the bearish corrective bias intact heading into next week. A diplomatic resolution to the Hormuz crisis would likely accelerate gold’s decline toward the 0.618 Fib at ,542.51.

The daily chart shows Gold in a well-defined corrective structure from the ,594.56 all-time high reached in late January 2026. Price has retraced through the 0.236 Fib (,192.81) and 0.382 Fib (,944.27) without any meaningful recovery, and is now testing the area between the 0.5 (,743.39) and 0.618 (,542.51) retracement levels. The current price of ,676.86 sits directly in the middle of this corrective zone.

All three EMAs (20, 50, 200) are positioned above price on the daily timeframe and are beginning to converge bearishly — a structural sign that the trend remains downward. RSI (14) is at 38–40 range, showing bearish momentum without yet reaching extreme oversold territory, which means there is room to run lower before a significant technical bounce. MACD is in negative territory with the histogram declining.

The 4H chart shows a series of lower highs from the ,000+ range, with each rally attempt being capped below declining EMAs. The Bollinger Bands are expanding to the downside, confirming momentum is with sellers. A retest of the 0.618 Fib at ,542.51 is the primary target for bears; a break below that level opens the path to ,258 (0.786 Fib).

Silver’s dual identity as both a monetary metal and an industrial commodity is working against it in the current environment. While gold benefits from safe-haven buying flows during the Hormuz crisis, silver’s industrial demand profile — exposed to global manufacturing, solar, and EV sectors — is being discounted by recession risk. The gold-silver ratio has expanded sharply, confirming the market is treating silver as an industrial cyclical rather than a monetary refuge.

Physical supply deficits that characterised 2025 are expected to persist through 2026, driven by solar panel manufacturing growth. However, the forward demand signal from slowing Chinese industrial activity and US tariff uncertainty is undermining spot buying. Silver imports into China — the world’s largest industrial silver consumer — have shown month-on-month weakness, removing a key pillar of support.

The technical damage to silver is more severe than gold. Silver has lost over 39% from its January high of approximately 21.86 (the 0% Fibonacci level on the chart) to current levels near 3. This magnitude of correction reflects genuine structural selling, not a temporary flush — traders should respect the trend and seek short entries on bounces rather than trying to catch a bottom.

The daily chart shows Silver in a major corrective downtrend from the January 2026 high near 21.86. Price has breached below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 6.60 and is now trading at 3.01, below all three EMAs. The 0.786 Fib at 4.29 is the next major structural support and likely primary target for bears in the coming weeks.

RSI (14) sits at 40.49 on the daily chart — technically oversold but not at extreme levels that would force a significant bounce. The 2025 bull run saw silver sustain RSI in the 40-50 range during consolidations, meaning current readings are consistent with a downtrend pause rather than a reversal. MACD remains in negative territory, and the histogram is declining, confirming ongoing bearish momentum.

The convergence of all three EMAs (20, 50, 200) above price — with the 200 EMA at approximately 3.23 representing a massive overhead barrier — creates a classic bearish EMA stack. Any rally toward the 6–78 resistance zone (0.618 Fib + EMA cluster) should be treated as a shorting opportunity. Volume on down days has been consistently higher than on up days throughout the corrective sequence.

WTI crude is the clearest expression of the Hormuz crisis in the commodities market. The structural supply shock — with approximately 20 million barrels per day of seaborne oil at risk from Iran’s effective closure of the strait — has been the dominant driver since early March. WTI surged from pre-conflict levels near 2 to a weekly high of 13.97 this week, before pulling back on diplomatic signals from Washington indicating President Trump has informed advisers of a willingness to end the confrontation.

The EIA’s March 10 STEO projected Brent to remain above 5/barrel over the next two months, before falling below 0 in Q3 2026 as transit through the Strait gradually resumes. This creates a compelling “buy the dip” framework for WTI in the near term — Fibonacci retracements on the current rally offer strategic entry points for long positions, with the geopolitical premium still very much embedded in prices. The Baker Hughes rig count rose this week to 548 active rigs, with higher oil prices incentivising US shale producers to expand, though production response typically lags price by 3–6 months.

Near-term, the key fundamental catalysts are ceasefire news and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Any signal of Hormuz reopening would likely see a rapid 0–15 de-risking selloff. Conversely, Iranian escalation or additional production shut-ins would push WTI back toward 15–120. Traders must maintain tight risk management given the binary event-driven nature of price action.

The WTI daily chart shows one of the most powerful uptrends in commodities markets this year. Price launched from the 1.0 Fibonacci level (complete retracement) at 5.24 in late 2025 and has rallied aggressively through all retracement levels. The current price of 12.05 is testing the 0% Fibonacci extension level at 19.99, which represents the measured move target from the entire 2025 base and is the first major structural resistance since the rally began.

All three EMAs are positioned far below current price — EMA 20 at approximately 5.49, EMA 50 at 7.54, EMA 200 at 8.07 — reflecting the extraordinary velocity of the Hormuz-driven rally. RSI (14) reads 70.11 on the daily chart, entering overbought territory, which warns that a pullback toward the EMAs is overdue. However, in crisis-driven markets, overbought indicators can persist for extended periods.

The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 5.25 aligns almost perfectly with the EMA 20, creating a high-confluence support zone for buy-on-dips strategies. A pullback to this zone (3–97) would be technically healthy and offer a structured long entry with a clearly defined stop below the 0.5 Fib at 7.61. A decisive break above 19.99 would signal further extension toward 30.

Natural Gas has decoupled entirely from the crude oil rally, demonstrating a fundamentally different supply/demand dynamic. Despite the Hormuz crisis affecting global LNG flows, US Henry Hub prices remain suppressed by above-seasonal storage levels. Mild February and early March temperatures across the major US heating regions left storage inventories well above the five-year seasonal average, reducing winter demand drawdowns that would typically support prices.

The EIA’s March STEO projects Henry Hub to average .80/MMBtu through 2026 — down 13% from previous forecasts — citing both the warmer-than-expected winter and the anticipated surge in associated natural gas production as higher oil prices drive increased US shale drilling activity. Each new oil well drilled in the Permian Basin produces associated gas, which adds to the domestic supply glut without any market-responsive drilling decision.

The next directional catalyst for natural gas is the weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report. The market needs to see a storage withdrawal larger than seasonal expectations to shift sentiment. Spring shoulder season — April through May — is traditionally the weakest demand period for natural gas, making a meaningful price recovery unlikely in the near term without a significant weather shock or unexpected LNG export demand.

The Natural Gas daily chart presents one of the most defined downtrends of any commodity. From the January 2026 spike high near .50 (the 1.0 Fibonacci level), price has retraced the entire move and is now sitting at .800 — exactly at the 0% Fibonacci base of .780. This level represents the 2025 base from which the entire winter rally launched, making it the most critical structural support on the chart.

RSI (14) reads 39.60 on the daily chart — approaching oversold territory but not yet at an extreme. EMA alignment is decisively bearish: EMA 20 (.024), EMA 50 (.357), and EMA 200 (.771) are all stacked above price and declining in a classic bearish formation. Any bounce is likely to be capped at the EMA 20 at .024, which represents the first meaningful resistance level on the chart.

The price action since February shows a clean descending channel with consistent lower highs and lower lows. Volume has been declining on rally days and increasing on down days — a textbook bearish volume profile. A daily close below .780 (the Fibonacci base) would signal a fresh leg lower toward .65–2.50, the next structural support area from 2024 price action.