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Riding High: Oil Prices and Fed Rate Awaited

Riding High: Oil Prices and Fed Rate Awaited

26 Jul 2023

Oil Prices Steady Ahead of Fed’s Rate Decision


In the wake of the much-anticipated Federal Reserve rate hike and a surge in U.S. crude supplies, oil prices have managed to hold steady, hovering near three-month highs. Investors have been closely monitoring the situation, and with indicators of tighter supplies and global economic commitments in the mix, the energy market is witnessing significant fluctuations.

Oil Prices Amidst Fed Rate Hike Expectations

As of 0853 GMT, Brent crude futures have experienced a slight decline of 34 cents, settling at $83.30 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has fallen 40 cents to $79.23. Tuesday saw both crude benchmarks reach three-month highs, instilling cautious optimism among investors.

Factors Driving the Market

The recent surge in oil prices can be attributed to various factors that have been influencing the market for the past four weeks. Notably, output reductions by OPEC and its allies have contributed to an environment of tightened supplies. Moreover, the commitment by Chinese authorities to support their economy, as the world’s second-largest oil user, has further bolstered investor sentiment.

However, with China’s economic landscape still uncertain, doubts arise regarding its ability to sustain and increase policy support. Warren Patterson, the head commodities strategist at ING, warns that there is a risk that these initiatives may not meet expectations.

U.S. Oil Stockpiles Report

Adding to the complexity of the situation, the American Petroleum Institute reported an increase of around 1.32 million barrels in U.S. oil stockpiles for the week ending July 21. This comes as a surprise considering analysts’ predictions of a 2.3-million-barrel drawdown, as indicated by a Reuters survey.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Daily Chart Overview

Taking a closer look at the technical aspects of Brent Crude Oil, we find the following:

  • Brent Crude Oil is currently trading within an upward channel, signaling a positive trend.
  • The commodity is positioned above all Simple Moving Averages (SMA), which indicates a bullish sentiment.
  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports the bullish outlook, while the Stochastic oscillator suggests a neutral trend.

Price Levels to Watch

For traders seeking potential entry and exit points, here are the key levels to consider:

  • Resistance Level: $83.34
  • Immediate Support Level: $81.91

How to Trade Brent Crude Oil

With Brent Crude Oil showing signs of an upward breakout and the price on the rise, investors are closely monitoring the resistance area. Should the commodity break through this zone, further upside potential is expected.

Trade Suggestion

Based on the current market analysis, a potential trade suggestion is as follows:

  • Entry Price: $83.96
  • Take Profit Price: $85.56
  • Stop Loss: $82.76


As investors brace themselves for the Federal Reserve rate decision and navigate through fluctuating oil prices, the market remains influenced by a myriad of factors. From output reductions by OPEC to Chinese economic commitments, every development plays a crucial role in shaping the energy landscape. Traders should exercise caution and keep a close eye on key technical levels to capitalize on potential opportunities in the oil market.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What is driving the recent fluctuations in oil prices?

The recent fluctuations in oil prices can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the Federal Reserve rate hike, U.S. crude supplies, output reductions by OPEC and allies, and Chinese economic commitments.

2. How has the American Petroleum Institute’s report affected the market?

The American Petroleum Institute’s report of an unexpected increase in U.S. oil stockpiles has added uncertainty to the market, as it contradicts analysts’ predictions.

3. What is the technical outlook for Brent Crude Oil?

Brent Crude Oil is currently trading within an upward channel, supported by bullish indicators such as its position above all Simple Moving Averages (SMA) and a positive Relative Strength Index (RSI).

4. What could potentially hinder China’s ability to increase policy support?

There are doubts about whether China, as the second-largest oil user globally, can sustain and enhance policy support due to ongoing economic uncertainties.