Fundamental View

EUR/USD’s fundamental picture has brightened modestly today on the back of the DXY breakdown below 99 triggered by the Iran ceasefire announcement. The structural case for a weaker dollar — Fed easing expectations, the approaching change of Fed Chair, and continued $166 billion IEEPA refund processing — remains intact, and today’s geopolitical catalyst has accelerated the forex market’s pricing of that USD weakness. The ECB is on hold at 2.15% with further tightening optionality, which means the rate differential is structurally less supportive of the dollar than it was six months ago.

However, EUR/USD bulls should remain cautious. The eurozone’s underlying growth is still fragile — German industrial output has been soft and the 10% global tariff under Section 122 continues to weigh on European export confidence. The pair’s dramatic rally from sub-1.08 in late 2024 to a peak above 1.20789 in early 2026 was primarily driven by dollar weakness rather than euro fundamental strength. The current bounce from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 1.16660 is therefore primarily a USD story, not a EUR story — which means it is more vulnerable to reversal if the ceasefire breaks down or if Friday’s US CPI surprises to the upside.

German fiscal stimulus — the EUR 1 trillion infrastructure and defence programme — remains a medium-term euro positive that is not fully priced, but its economic transmission will take quarters, not days, to materialise in the forex market.

Technical Structure

On the daily chart, EUR/USD has reversed sharply from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 1.16660, which served as the key support zone. The pair closed the session at 1.16944, with the daily candle showing a strong bullish recovery from the lows of 1.15888. Price is now approaching the critical 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.17450, which will be the decisive test of whether today’s move is a genuine reversal or a dead-cat bounce within the ongoing corrective channel from the February 1.20789 high.

The descending trendline from the February peak has been acting as resistance through March and into April. A close above 1.17450 (0.5 Fib) would be the first meaningful signal that this descending channel is being broken. Above there, the 0.618 Fib at 1.18238 is the next resistance target. On the downside, a return below 1.16660 (0.382 Fib) would negate the recovery and open a retest of the 1.16000 area and potentially the 0.236 Fib at 1.15658.

Key Fibonacci Levels: Resistance at 1.17450 (0.5 Fib), 1.18238 (0.618 Fib). Support at 1.16660 (0.382 Fib), 1.15658 (0.236 Fib), 1.14111 (Fib base / 0 level).

Fundamental View

GBP/USD is today’s standout performer in the forex market, surging 1.13% as the combination of a weak dollar and risk-on conditions provides a powerful tailwind for sterling. The pound has historically been one of the most volatile of the G10 currencies in response to global risk sentiment shifts — given the UK’s twin current account and fiscal deficits, sterling tends to underperform in risk-off periods and outperform sharply when risk appetite returns. Today’s Iran ceasefire represents exactly that kind of catalyst, and GBP/USD has responded with a forceful reclaim of the 0.382 Fibonacci level.

The Bank of England is holding rates at 3.75%, with the MPC maintaining a data-dependent stance. UK inflation has been stickier than expected, and the UK’s trade exposure to US tariffs is limited compared to Germany and the EU, which gives GBP a relative advantage in the current forex market tariff environment. The UK–US trade deal framework that maintains a 10% reciprocal tariff cap provides certainty that other European nations lack. This fundamental backstop — combined with today’s risk-on catalyst — makes GBP/USD one of the strongest recovery candidates in the current cycle.

The primary risk for GBP/USD today remains the fragility of the ceasefire. Sterling’s twin deficits mean it would be a prime target for selling if geopolitical risk were to re-escalate overnight. Position sizing should reflect this asymmetric tail risk.

Technical Structure

The GBP/USD daily chart has produced a decisive bullish reversal candle. From the low of 1.32841 — testing the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement support zone at 1.33488 — the pair has surged to close at 1.34423. This represents a near full-range candle that has recaptured the 0.382 Fib level at 1.34344, a significant technical development after the pair spent several sessions below this level during its mid-March to early-April decline.

The recovery from the 0.236 Fib zone (1.33488) has been sharp and carries the hallmarks of a momentum-driven reversal rather than a mean-reversion bounce. The next key resistance is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at 1.35173, followed by the 0.618 level at 1.36002. A pullback to the 0.382 Fib (1.34344) before the next leg higher would represent a healthy consolidation and an ideal re-entry point. The descending channel from the February high at 1.38686 is the longer-term structure that bulls ultimately need to break to confirm a genuine trend reversal in the forex market.

Key Fibonacci Levels: Resistance at 1.35173 (0.5 Fib), 1.36002 (0.618 Fib), 1.37182 (0.786 Fib). Support at 1.34344 (0.382 Fib), 1.33488 (0.236 Fib), 1.31659 (Fib base / 0 level).

Fundamental View

NZD/USD has delivered the largest single-session gain of the four pairs covered today — up 2.01% — reflecting the kiwi’s status as one of the most risk-sensitive currencies in the G10 forex market. The New Zealand dollar is structurally a high-beta, risk-on currency that amplifies both global risk appetite recoveries and risk-off selloffs. Today’s Iran ceasefire announcement has triggered a sharp reversal from the multi-week lows near 0.57000, with the pair surging through multiple intraday resistance levels.

Fundamentally, NZD has been under structural pressure in recent months due to the RBNZ’s aggressive easing cycle — the central bank has cut rates by 3.25 percentage points since August 2024, the largest reduction by any G10 central bank in the current cycle. This rate differential headwind has been the primary reason NZD underperformed other G10 currencies even as the DXY declined in 2025. However, the RBNZ is approaching the end of its easing cycle as New Zealand growth stabilises. The 15% US tariff has had a limited impact on New Zealand’s total trade exposure — exports to non-US markets are growing at approximately 11% annually, with dairy and meat exports holding up well and China remaining a solid destination. This improving fundamental backdrop, combined with today’s risk-on catalyst, creates the conditions for a sustained NZD recovery.

Technical Structure

The NZD/USD daily chart shows a dramatic reversal from the lows near 0.57179 — just above the Fibonacci 0 base at 0.56777 — with the pair surging to close at 0.58460. This recovery has brought the pair back above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 0.58380, which now acts as critical near-term support. The 0.236 Fib at 0.57752 provided an intraday support point during the session before the full reversal took hold.

The Fibonacci structure on NZD/USD shows the next key resistance at 0.5 Fib (0.58840), followed by the 0.618 Fib at 0.59330. A consolidation above the 0.382 Fib (0.58380) would be a constructive technical signal for further upside. The broader corrective structure from the February high at 0.60908 remains technically intact — to fully negate that structure, NZD/USD would need a daily close above the 0.618 Fib at 0.59330. Key downside risk: if price returns below 0.57500, the recovery loses credibility and the 0.56777 Fib base becomes the next test.

Key Fibonacci Levels: Resistance at 0.58840 (0.5 Fib), 0.59330 (0.618 Fib), 0.60024 (0.786 Fib). Support at 0.58380 (0.382 Fib), 0.57752 (0.236 Fib), 0.56777 (Fib base / 0 level).

Fundamental View

USD/CAD is falling today as two forces converge against the US dollar side of the pair. First, the broad DXY weakness triggered by the Iran ceasefire and geopolitical premium unwind provides the headline driver. Second, the Canadian dollar benefits from risk-on conditions as a commodity-linked currency — with oil and broader commodity markets responding positively to the Strait of Hormuz reopening prospect, CAD is receiving a dual tailwind from both the dollar’s decline and the improvement in risk sentiment. The Bank of Canada has been navigating a challenging domestic environment, but the current risk-on shift in the global forex market overrides near-term BoC uncertainty as the primary driver.

From a structural perspective, USD/CAD has been in a recovery phase since the pair bottomed near 1.34772 (the Fib 1 level / base) in January 2026. The pair rallied from that low through the Fibonacci retracement levels — briefly touching near the Fibonacci 0 level at 1.39619 before this week’s reversal. Today’s pullback to 1.38320 puts the pair back below the 0.236 Fib (1.38487) and testing the 0.382 Fib zone (1.37768). If the risk-on environment persists through the week, a full retracement to the 0.5 Fib at 1.37196 is the next logical target for USD/CAD bears in the current forex market.

Technical Structure

On the daily chart, USD/CAD has produced a bearish reversal candle from the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement resistance zone near 1.38487–1.39003. The pair tested this zone over several sessions before today’s rejection, and the current candle close at 1.38320 confirms that the 0.236 Fib is acting as a meaningful resistance ceiling. This structure is consistent with a classic Fibonacci resistance rejection, where the pair rallied into a key level and is now fading.

The next Fibonacci support levels below current price are the 0.382 Fib at 1.37768 (approximately 55 pips below), followed by the 0.5 Fib at 1.37196. A break below 1.37196 would represent a significant technical deterioration and open the path toward the 0.618 Fib at 1.36624. On the upside, a close above the 0.236 Fib at 1.38487 would neutralise the current sell setup and suggest the recovery from the January lows has resumed. Traders should watch the descending trendline from recent highs — price is currently trading below it, which adds bearish confluence.

Key Fibonacci Levels: Resistance at 1.38487 (0.236 Fib), 1.39619 (Fib 0 level / base). Support at 1.37768 (0.382 Fib), 1.37196 (0.5 Fib), 1.36624 (0.618 Fib), 1.35810 (0.786 Fib).