Forex Market Analysis — March 11, 2026 | EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · AUD/USD Trade Setups | Capital Street FX
Daily Forex Market Analysis
Executive Summary & Market Conditions
March 11, 2026The Big Picture: Geopolitics Meets Inflation Day
Wednesday, March 11, 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most data-heavy sessions of the month. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February at 8:30 AM EST is the week’s defining event — hitting markets already fragile from a week of Middle East-driven volatility.
The conflict stemming from US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Strait of Hormuz disruptions has kept the US Dollar buoyant on safe-haven demand, with the DXY touching a five-week high near 99.68 before easing to the 98.74–99.00 range as ceasefire hopes begin filtering through. Oil remains above $100/barrel, a key inflation wildcard that the February CPI data will not yet fully capture — this print reflects pre-conflict price conditions.
Markets are pricing just one 25bps Fed rate cut for 2026 (most likely September), a notable hawkish repricing from the two cuts expected a fortnight ago. For active forex traders, this creates a highly reactive, headline-driven environment where every tick of data matters.
Central bank divergence is intensifying: the Bank of Japan holds at 0.75% with hawkish normalization signals, the RBA sits restrictively at 3.85% with rate hike risk, the ECB is on hold at 2.00%, and the BoE paused at 3.75%. The next 24 hours are particularly critical — do not approach this session without a clear plan.
US CPI at 8:30 AM EST today. Avoid entering new positions 30 minutes before the release. Widen stops or stay flat until price action confirms direction.
Economic Calendar — High Impact Events (Next 24 Hours)
USA · UK · Japan · Australia · Europe · China| Time (GMT) | Currency | Event | Impact | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Market Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence (Feb) | Medium | 3 | — | Pending | AUD sensitivity; hawkish RBA narrative |
| 03:30 | CNY | CPI y/y (Feb) | Medium | 0.5% | 0.7% | Pending | AUD, risk sentiment; China demand proxy |
| 03:30 | CNY | PPI y/y (Feb) | Medium | -0.9% | -0.7% | Pending | Global deflation gauge; impacts commodity FX |
| 13:30 | USD | 🔴 CPI m/m & y/y (Feb 2026) | ⬛ HIGH | 0.2% / 2.4% | 0.3% / 2.5% | Pending | Primary USD mover of the week. Beat = USD rally; Miss = USD sell-off |
| 13:30 | USD | 🔴 Core CPI m/m & y/y (Feb 2026) | ⬛ HIGH | 0.3% / 2.7% | 0.3% / 2.5% | Pending | Fed rate cut pricing. Core above 2.6% = hawkish repricing |
| 15:30 | USD | EIA Crude Oil Inventories | Medium | -1.45M | — | Pending | Oil-sensitive pairs (CAD, NOK). Indirectly pressures JPY |
| 16:00 | USD | Fed’s Barkin Speech | Medium | — | — | Pending | Watch for post-CPI guidance language; USD tone setter |
| Thu 00:01 | GBP | RICS House Price Balance | Low-Med | 2% | 4% | Pending | Minor GBP signal. Watch for BoE sentiment clues |
| Thu 03:30 | JPY | Producer Price Index y/y (Feb) | Medium | 4.0% | 4.1% | Pending | BoJ inflation monitor; hotter PPI = yen support |
| Thu 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | Medium | 221K | 225K | Pending | US labor market check; rising claims = dovish USD |
| Thu 13:30 | USD | PPI m/m & y/y (Feb 2026) | Medium-High | 0.4% / 3.5% | 0.3% / 3.4% | Pending | Leading inflation gauge; feeds into PCE Friday |
Today’s February CPI print was collected before the Iran conflict began on February 28. It will not reflect the oil price spike above $100/barrel that has occurred since. Even a benign print won’t ease geopolitical inflation concerns — markets will trade today’s number on technical surprise vs. expectation, not as a true forward inflation signal. The March and April CPI prints will carry far more geopolitical weight.
| Central Bank | Current Rate | Bias | Next Meeting | Expected Action | FX Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve (USD) | 3.50–3.75% | Hold / Data-Dep. | March 18–19, 2026 | Hold (97% priced) | USD range-bound; break on CPI surprise |
| ECB (EUR) | 2.00% | Hold | April 2026 | Hold; 30% chance hike by year-end | EUR supported; limited upside unless fiscal boost |
| Bank of England (GBP) | 3.75% | Cautious Hold | May 2026 | Hold; 1–2 cuts 2026 in total | GBP range-bound; geopolitics weigh |
| Bank of Japan (JPY) | 0.75% | Hawkish Normalize | April 2026 | Possible hike; JGB taper ongoing | JPY gradually supported long-term |
| RBA (AUD) | 3.85% | Hawkish Hold | April 1, 2026 | Hold; hike risk if inflation persists | AUD supported; risk-off the main headwind |
| PBoC (CNY) | 3.10% | Stable / Supportive | Ongoing | Steady; post-NPC stimulus fiscal support | CNY stable; indirect AUD/risk support |
Technical Analysis — 4 Major Currency Pairs
In-Depth Setups for Active Traders
EUR/USD has shifted to a short-term bearish structure after failing to consolidate above the $1.22 high made earlier in 2026. Price has broken below the Target Zone 2 (1.1650–1.1628), confirming seller control. The pair is tracking a descending channel on the 3H chart, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows. The pair now trades below the 5-day MA (1.1648) but still holds above the 50-day MA (1.1586), creating a critical battleground zone. SMA200 convergence above current price signals bear trend continuation risk. Geopolitically, higher energy prices continue to pressure European growth, complicating ECB’s policy path and keeping EUR fundamentally softer than USD safe-haven flows suggest.
A notable shooting star printed near the 1.18 daily handle — a classic bearish reversal signal confirming exhaustion of upside momentum. The H4 bearish engulfing candle below 1.1650 adds directional weight. Watch for a potential false break of 1.1628 before continuation lower.
| Level | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 1.1870 | Resistance |
| R2 | 1.1800 | Resistance |
| R1 | 1.1700 | Key Resistance |
| Spot | 1.1634 | Current |
| S1 | 1.1586 | 50-Day MA |
| S2 | 1.1528 | Key Support |
| S3 | 1.1500 | Major Demand |
| S4 | 1.1230 | Long-Term Support |
Primary Scenario: Short (Bearish)
Alternative: Long (CPI Miss Scenario)
GBP/USD has been the strongest performer among majors for USD-weakness plays, reaching 42-day highs above 1.3800 before pulling back to the current 1.3364 area. The pair retains bullish structural integrity — a sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact on the daily chart, provided the 1.3335 (S1) level holds. GBP cleared the former resistance at 1.3335, which has now turned support. The BoE holding at 3.75% with just 1–2 cuts priced for all of 2026 keeps the rate differential relatively supportive for the pound versus a dovish-leaning Fed. However, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated UK energy import costs have trimmed the bullish momentum near-term.
A bullish pin bar at the 1.3335 support on the daily chart hints at buy-side absorption. The H4 bull flag formation after the pullback from 1.38 is constructive — a breakout above 1.3475 would confirm the next bullish leg. The H1 doji near current price signals indecision ahead of CPI.
| Level | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 1.3785 | Resistance |
| R2 | 1.3625 | Resistance |
| R1 | 1.3475 | Key Resistance |
| Spot | 1.3364 | Current |
| S1 | 1.3335 | Key Support |
| S2 | 1.3195 | Support |
| S3 | 1.3050 | Major Support |
Primary: Long from Support (Bullish Continuation)
Alternative: Short (Hot CPI / USD Surge)
USD/JPY is caught in a tug-of-war between two powerful forces. On one side, rising oil prices hurt Japan as a net energy importer, weakening yen’s safe-haven appeal and potentially widening the current account deficit. On the other, BoJ normalization — currently at 0.75% with another hike possible in April — represents a structural yen-strengthening catalyst. The pair is approaching the critical 157.95 resistance on the H1 chart. The 160.00 handle looms as a BOJ intervention tripwire. A falling wedge is forming on the 4H chart, while bearish RSI divergence has appeared, leaving scope for a near-term bounce before resumption of the broader bearish trend.
The H4 ascending channel is showing classic rising wedge characteristics near 157.95 resistance — a bearish reversal pattern. RSI bearish divergence at this resistance (price higher highs, RSI lower highs) is a strong caution signal. A daily close above 157.95 flips the bias bullish toward 160.00.
| Level | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| R4 | 161.95 | Long-Term Secular High |
| R3 | 160.00 | 🚨 Intervention Zone |
| R2 | 158.90 | Resistance |
| R1 | 157.95 | Key Resistance |
| Spot | 157.30 | Current |
| S1 | 155.60 | Key Support |
| S2 | 153.05 | Support |
| S3 | 148.65–145.85 | 200-Day MA Zone |
Primary: Short from Resistance (Range Sell)
Alt: Long (Hot CPI + Oil Escalation)
AUD/USD is experiencing a classic fundamental-technical tension. Fundamentally, the RBA’s hawkish stance (rate at 3.85%, hike risk in Q2) and rising commodity demand from China’s post-NPC fiscal support are structurally bullish for the Aussie. COT data shows large speculators continuing to pile into AUD longs — net exposure increased by +33,000 contracts. Technically however, the pair sits at multi-year channel resistance (0.6940–0.6950 zone from September 2024 high), and geopolitical risk-off from the Middle East conflict is pressuring all risk-sensitive currencies. AUD/USD dropped for four consecutive sessions before a wide-legged doji formed at support — a near-term bounce signal. The bullish breakout above 0.6700 in Q4 2025 remains intact as the primary medium-term trend.
A wide-legged doji at the October high support (~0.6900) suggests buy-side re-entry and near-term indecision reversing to bullish. Bullish divergence on H4 RSI adds conviction for a bounce. Watch for a break above 0.6940 to confirm the double-bottom pattern.
| Level | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| R4 | 0.7140 | Major Resistance |
| R3 | 0.7000 | Psychological |
| R2 | 0.6940–0.6950 | Channel Resistance |
| R1 | 0.6910 | Minor Resistance |
| Spot | 0.6940 | Current |
| S1 | 0.6900 | Key Support |
| S2 | 0.6700 | Breakout Level |
| S3 | 0.6400 | Long-Term Pivot |
Primary: Long Dip Buy from Support
Alt: Short (Risk-Off Escalation)
Comparative Technical Indicators Dashboard
All 4 Pairs — Multi-Timeframe| Indicator | EUR/USD (1.1634) | GBP/USD (1.3364) | USD/JPY (157.30) | AUD/USD (0.6940) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily Trend | Bearish | Bullish | Mixed | Bullish |
| RSI (14-Day) | 60.37 — Neutral/Sell | ~54 — Neutral | ~62 — Overbought Risk | ~48 — Neutral Recovery |
| MACD Signal | +0.002 (Buy but fading) | Positive crossover | Positive (bull divergence) | Bull divergence forming |
| MA Alignment (D1) | Below 5MA; above 50MA | Above 50MA, 100MA | Above all MAs | Above 50MA & 200MA |
| Key Pattern | Shooting Star + Descending Channel | Bull Flag + Pin Bar | Rising Wedge (bearish) | Wide Doji + Div. (bullish) |
| Hourly Signal | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Neutral |
| Daily Signal | Strong Sell | Neutral | Neutral/Sell | Neutral |
| Sentiment (COT) | Euro longs reducing | GBP longs intact | Net short JPY | AUD longs increasing |
| 24H Bias | Cautious Short | Buy Dips | Sell Rallies | Buy Dips |
| Year-End Target | 1.19–1.21 | 1.36–1.47 | 146–148 | 0.70–0.72 |
Macro Themes Driving Forex Markets
Fundamental Drivers — Next 24–72 HoursUS-Israeli strikes on Iran (Feb 28) and the Strait of Hormuz disruption have pushed oil above $100/barrel. President Trump’s statements about expediting ceasefire and US Navy tanker escorts have partially eased safe-haven USD demand, but energy market risk premium remains elevated. EUR and JPY face the most direct energy import headwinds.
Markets now price only ONE 25bps Fed cut in 2026 (September). This is a dramatic hawkish repricing from two cuts expected earlier. A soft CPI today could restore rate cut expectations and hurt the USD. A hot print cements the “higher for longer” narrative. The Fed meets March 18–19 — today’s CPI is the last major data point before that decision.
The Bank of Japan raised rates 25bps in December 2025 to 0.75%. JGB purchase tapering is ongoing (¥400bn/quarter reductions). Another hike is possible at the April 2026 meeting if data supports it. This is the most significant structural driver for JPY appreciation throughout 2026 — long-term yen bulls should watch April closely.
Australia’s RBA, post-February hike to 3.85%, is signaling further rate increases if inflation persists above the 2–3% target band. Big four Australian banks split on timing: CBA, NAB, Westpac see a May hike to 4.10%. This hawkish bias is structurally supportive for AUD/USD, making dip-buying on risk-off events attractive for medium-term traders.
China’s NPC concluded with a GDP growth target of ~5% for 2026, a slightly expansionary fiscal stance (deficit 4.0–4.5% of GDP), and signals of larger special bond quotas. IEEPA tariff reversal by the US Supreme Court (February 20) improved CNY sentiment. A stable China is crucial for AUD, NZD, and broader commodity FX.
Despite geopolitical safe-haven support, the USD faces a structural 2026 headwind: the Fed has cut 175bps since September 2024, QT is ending, Treasury bill buybacks are resuming, and the DXY ended 2025 down ~10%. COT speculative net-short USD positioning (recently at a 5-year extreme of -$22.7B) is reducing, providing short-term USD relief but not reversing the structural trend.
Frequently Asked Questions
For Experienced TradersConclusion & Forward Outlook
Key Takeaways for Active TradersThe Bottom Line: Patience and Precision Win Today
March 11, 2026 sits at a genuine inflection point for the forex market. The US Consumer Price Index release at 8:30 AM EST is the defining event of the week — and potentially the month. Coming on the heels of a geopolitical shock that has scrambled oil markets, hawkishly repriced Fed expectations, and created a tug-of-war in the DXY between structural weakness and tactical safe-haven demand, today’s number carries unusual significance.
For the four major pairs analyzed: EUR/USD remains in a short-term bearish structure and is the cleanest short if CPI beats; GBP/USD is the most constructive bullish opportunity on a CPI miss; USD/JPY needs watching at the 157.95 resistance with intervention risk approaching 160.00; and AUD/USD is the structural bull story but needs risk appetite to cooperate.
The macro landscape going into Q2 2026 is increasingly defined by central bank divergence, energy market uncertainty, and the gradual erosion of USD structural support as the Fed’s easing cycle builds momentum. Active traders who focus on high-quality setups with clean risk management — rather than chasing every geopolitical headline — will be best positioned to capitalize on the volatility ahead.
Stay disciplined. Size conservatively around CPI. Let price confirm before committing. The opportunity is there — the question is whether you’re patient enough to take it correctly.
