Asian Session Report: Yen Firms as Tokyo Reopens, Aussie Sags on Mixed Jobs Data and Xi Lands for the Trump Summit While Crypto Nurses a Yield-Driven Sell-Off
Asian Session Report: Yen Firms as Tokyo Reopens, Aussie Sags on Mixed Jobs Data and Xi Lands for the Trump Summit While Crypto Nurses a Yield-Driven Sell-Off
USD/JPY · AUD/USD · Copper · Corn · Nikkei 225 · Dogecoin · Litecoin — technical analysis with conditional reference levels
Seven Stories Driving the Asian Session
Ranked by expected market impact into the European open
Yen edges higher as Tokyo reopens to a JGB rout and a slowing PMI
USD/JPY slipped from above 158.20 as Japan returned from a three-day holiday, with 10-year JGB futures down nearly 70 ticks and the flash composite PMI showing an 18th month of expansion at the slowest pace since May. Price pressures stayed elevated on a weak yen.
JGB Catch-UpAussie leans toward 0.7000 as unemployment jumps to 4.6%
Employment rose 39.5K against 20K expected, but the jobless rate hit its highest since late 2021 as participation climbed to 67.1% and full-time jobs fell 6.3K. The ABS advised caution on the seasonally adjusted data after a survey change.
RBA Sept 29Nikkei reopens higher on chip and component names
The Nikkei gained about 1.3% by the midday break after Meta unveiled a handheld device that lifted expectations for key component demand. The Topix added only 0.1% as the rally stayed narrow and tech-led.
Tech-Led ReopenCopper cools just below record highs as a mine halts and China heads for holidays
Reuters reported the world’s largest copper mine halted operations after a worker death, adding to supply concerns, while a firmer Dollar and profit-taking capped gains near record levels ahead of Chinese holidays on September 25 and October 1-7.
Supply RiskCorn eases from its highest since mid-2023 as the Dollar firms
The pullback follows a 7.6% monthly gain driven by a projected global deficit near 30 million tons. Traders are watching the Trump-Xi summit for signs of larger Chinese agricultural purchases.
Summit WatchDogecoin slumps as Treasury yields at cycle highs flush leveraged longs
A hot US services PMI lifted the 10-year yield above 5%, and $135.8 million of crypto positions were liquidated within an hour, with longs making up $125.9 million. Bitcoin fell below $84,000 and memecoins led the declines.
Yield ShockLitecoin cools after an ETF-fuelled run to its highest since June
LTC remains about 19% above its level a week ago after breaking a 90-day resistance area. Grayscale’s spot-ETF conversion filing and renewed inflows into a Litecoin ETF on Schwab continue to underpin sentiment.
ETF Catalyst| Market | Level | Change | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar Index (DXY) | ~100.86 | +0.05% | Firm on hot US PMI and cycle-high Treasury yields; key headwind for AUD |
| US 10-Year Yield | ~5.12% | Firm | Above 5% after Wednesday’s services PMI jump; highest levels in nearly two decades |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75%-4.00% | Hawkish tilt | October hike odds reported above 53% after the PMI |
| BOJ Policy Rate | 1.25% | Raised Sep 18 | Highest in 31 years; two dissents; JGB futures fell ~70 ticks on reopening |
| RBA Cash Rate | 4.35% | Hike priced | Markets price a high probability of 4.60% on September 29 |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | ~$4,319 | +0.02% | Little changed as firm yields offset haven demand |
| WTI Crude | ~$91.4 | -0.78% | Slightly lower in a quiet Asian session; Hormuz stalemate keeps a floor |
| S&P 500 | ~7,706 | -0.75% | Wall Street closed lower Wednesday as yields surged |
| Nasdaq Composite | ~26,936 | -1.13% | Tech and small caps led the decline |
| VIX | ~15.2 | +6.8% | Bounced from cycle lows as bonds broke down |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | ~$84,000 | -2.8% | Fell below $84K after PMI; ETF flows turned positive for 2026 earlier |
| USD/CNY Fix (PBOC) | 6.7489 | vs 6.7184 est. | Weaker-than-expected fix ahead of the Xi-Trump summit |
Levels are indicative and rounded; several are prior-session closes carried into Asian trade.
Technical Levels for Seven Instruments
Each analysis is conditional and lists a bias, resistance and support levels. Levels are technical references, not forecasts.
USD/JPY
Session Performance
USD/JPY slipped to about 157.80 in Asia from earlier highs above 158.20, as Japan reopened after a three-day holiday and the yen caught a modest bid. The pair had closed Wednesday near 158.25 as US yields surged.
Technical Structure
Trend indicators remain bullish, with a 52-week range of 146.58-164.00. A Fed-BOJ policy gap (BOJ at 1.25% versus a hawkish-leaning Fed) and a US 10-year yield above 5% support dips, while Japan Ministry of Finance intervention risk caps rallies toward the 160 area.
Confirmation Level
A firm hold above 158.30 opens 159.00 and, on a further US yield spike, the 160.00 round number where intervention chatter typically intensifies.
Alternative Scenario
A stronger yen on a sharper JGB reversal, softer US yields, or verbal warnings from Tokyo could push the pair back toward 157.00-156.00 and weaken the bullish structure.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1158.30 | S1157.30 |
| R2159.00 | S2156.90 |
| R3160.00 | S3156.00 |
AUD/USD
Session Performance
AUD/USD is trading near 0.7026, down 0.18% on the day and edging toward the 0.7000 psychological barrier after August jobs data showed unemployment rising to 4.6%, the highest since late 2021, despite a 39.5K jobs gain.
Technical Structure
Full-time employment fell 6.3K while part-time jumped 45.8K, and the ABS flagged a survey methodology change. The pair remains below the 0.7115 area seen on September 22, with a firmer Dollar Index near 100.86 keeping rebounds shallow.
Confirmation Level
A sustained break below 0.7000 opens 0.6965 and 0.6930, with the strong US-yield backdrop as the main driver.
Alternative Scenario
With markets pricing a high probability of an RBA hike on September 29, a hawkish-leaning RBA or softer US yields could lift AUD/USD back toward 0.7080-0.7115.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R10.7055 | S10.7000 |
| R20.7080 | S20.6965 |
| R30.7115 | S30.6930 |
Copper (HG)
Session Performance
COMEX copper (Dec) is trading near $6.7705 per lb, down 0.32% and just under the $6.9285 52-week high, after a pullback from record territory on profit-taking and a firmer Dollar.
Technical Structure
Daily and weekly technical readings remain in Strong Buy territory, though short-term hourly readings lean to Sell. LME three-month copper is near $14,700 a ton after touching $14,833, with a record of $14,875 set on September 10.
Confirmation Level
A move back above 6.8500 targets a retest of the 6.9285 high and the 7.0000 round number.
Alternative Scenario
A decisive break below 6.7000, a firmer Dollar, or a White House copper-tariff decision that widens the COMEX-LME spread could extend the pullback toward 6.6000.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R16.8500 | S16.7500 |
| R26.9285 | S26.7000 |
| R37.0000 | S36.6000 |
Corn (CBOT)
Session Performance
Corn fell 1.44% to 529 cents per bushel on Wednesday, still up about 7.6% over the past month and roughly 25% above year-ago levels, and near its highest since mid-2023.
Technical Structure
The USDA projects global corn output to fall short of consumption by nearly 30 million metric tons in 2026/27, the largest deficit in more than 30 years, alongside disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments. Dip-buying has held above the 520 area.
Confirmation Level
A recovery above 540 would put the recent 550 high back in play, with 560 the next objective on any China purchase headlines from the Trump-Xi summit.
Alternative Scenario
A stronger Dollar, a lack of agricultural commitments from the summit, or profit-taking could pull prices toward 515-505 and weaken the near-term structure.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1540 | S1522 |
| R2550 | S2515 |
| R3560 | S3505 |
Nikkei 225
Session Performance
The Nikkei 225 rose about 1.3% by the midday break as Tokyo reopened after a three-day holiday, led by computer-component shares after Meta unveiled a small handheld device, while the broader Topix gained a more modest 0.1%.
Technical Structure
The index has reclaimed the 65,000 level after last Friday’s BOJ-driven 1.38% rally. Chip names such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron and Kioxia dominate index moves, and a weaker yen remains a tailwind for exporters.
Confirmation Level
A close above 66,400 would open the recent 66,950 high and the 67,500 zone.
Alternative Scenario
A sharp JGB-driven yield spike, a reversal in AI and chip shares, or a yen rebound could send the index back toward 65,000-64,400, the September 18 intraday low area.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R166,400 | S165,400 |
| R266,950 | S265,000 |
| R367,500 | S364,400 |
Dogecoin (DOGE/USD)
Session Performance
Dogecoin is trading near $0.0921, down about 8% in 24 hours and reversing much of Monday’s 14% surge, after hot US PMI data sent Treasury yields to cycle highs and flushed leveraged longs across crypto.
Technical Structure
The rejection at the 0.1043 intraday high leaves the 0.1000 round number as resistance. Support sits at 0.0900 and the 0.0877 area from September 18-19, with 0.0820 the base of last week’s breakout.
Confirmation Level
A sustained break below 0.0900 exposes 0.0877 and then 0.0820.
Alternative Scenario
A reclaim of 0.1000 alongside easing yields or renewed Bitcoin ETF inflows would invalidate the bearish bias and reopen 0.1043.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R10.0965 | S10.0900 |
| R20.1000 | S20.0877 |
| R30.1043 | S30.0820 |
Litecoin (LTC/USD)
Session Performance
Litecoin is trading near $60.55, down about 2.2% on the day but still roughly 19% above its level a week ago, after the yield-driven crypto sell-off cooled a rally that took it to its highest since June.
Technical Structure
LTC has broken through the 90-day resistance area and is consolidating above the 58-60 zone. The Grayscale spot-ETF filing and resumed spot inflows into the LTCC ETF on Schwab have supported relative strength versus memecoins.
Confirmation Level
A rebound above 63.80 would target 65.00 and then 67.00.
Alternative Scenario
A break below 58.00 would signal the breakout is failing, with 55.00 the next support if Treasury yields keep climbing.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R163.80 | S159.10 |
| R265.00 | S258.00 |
| R367.00 | S355.00 |
What Is Moving Asia
Macro, policy and event risk behind the session
Hot US Data Sends Treasury Yields to Cycle Highs
DriverS&P Global’s September services PMI jumped to 58.7 from 56.5 against expectations near 56, pushing the 10-year yield above 5% and the two-year to a cycle high near 4.79%.
ContextThe Dollar Index has firmed near 100.86, while Fed funds sit at 3.75%-4.00% and markets lean toward an October hike. The move hit equities, gold-adjacent haven demand and crypto alike.
WatchFed’s Williams and Barkin speak Thursday, alongside jobless claims (consensus 201K), new home sales and the 7-year note auction.
Xi Lands in the US as the Trade Truce Is Extended to January 10
DriverChinese President Xi arrived for Thursday’s summit with Trump, who greeted him at the airport. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Busan truce, due to expire in November, now runs to January 10.
ContextHopes for a fresh Boeing order are fading, and agricultural purchases and copper import tariffs are among the trade issues markets are watching.
WatchAny announcement on Chinese purchases of corn and other grains, tariffs and chip export rules once talks get fully under way in US time.
Japan Reopens: BOJ at 1.25%, a JGB Rout and Intervention Risk
DriverAfter a three-day holiday, 10-year JGB futures fell nearly 70 ticks as Tokyo caught up with Wednesday’s global yield jump, while the Nikkei rose 1.3% at midday.
ContextThe BOJ raised rates to 1.25% on September 18 with two dissenters, and the Ministry of Finance is set to discuss trimming liquidity-enhancement bond issuance next week as supply shortages ease.
WatchUSD/JPY around 158-160 and any verbal warnings from Tokyo, plus the JGB market’s reaction to the MOF plan.
Australia’s Mixed Jobs Report Keeps the RBA in Focus
DriverUnemployment rose to 4.6%, the highest since late 2021, as participation jumped to 67.1%; employment rose 39.5K but full-time roles fell 6.3K.
ContextThe RBA has lifted rates three times in 2026 to 4.35%, and markets price a high probability of a further hike at the September 28-29 meeting. Australian shares touched a three-month low before the data.
WatchAUD/USD reaction at 0.7000 and hawkish or dovish signals into the RBA decision.
Copper Near Records: Mine Halt, China Holidays and Tariff Uncertainty
DriverReuters reported the world’s largest copper mine halted operations after a worker death, while LME copper sits near $14,700 a ton after testing $14,833.
ContextComex holds about 69% of tracked exchange stocks, and the White House has yet to decide on copper import tariffs, which knocked over 5% off US prices earlier in September.
WatchChinese buying ahead of the September 25 and October 1-7 holidays and any tariff decision.
Crypto: Yield-Driven Long Liquidations Versus ETF Tailwinds
DriverBitcoin fell below $84,000 after the PMI, with $135.8 million liquidated within an hour and Dogecoin down about 8%.
ContextBitcoin ETF flows turned positive for 2026 after a near $1 billion inflow day, and Grayscale’s amended S-3 for a spot Litecoin ETF has supported LTC.
WatchWhether the 10-year yield holds above 5% and whether ETF inflows resume.
Conditional Outlook
Technical, fundamental and event factors combined into conditional scenarios. No unconditional forecasts are made.
USD/JPY & AUD/USD Outlook
If US yields stay above 5% and Tokyo holds back on intervention, USD/JPY should extend toward 158.30-159.00, with 160.00 the next objective.
If AUD/USD breaks 0.7000 on firm US yields, it risks a slide toward 0.6965-0.6930; a hawkish RBA repricing would instead lift it toward 0.7080.
Nikkei 225 & Copper Outlook
If chip and component shares stay bid, the Nikkei 225 should extend toward 66,400-66,950.
If the Dollar eases and Chinese buying returns, copper should retest 6.8500-6.9285, with 7.0000 the next objective.
Corn Outlook
If the Trump-Xi summit delivers larger Chinese grain purchases, corn should recover toward 540-550; without commitments, a slip toward 515-505 becomes likelier.
Dogecoin & Litecoin Outlook
If Treasury yields keep climbing, DOGE should press toward 0.0900-0.0877 and LTC toward 59.10-58.00.
If yields ease and ETF inflows resume, DOGE should reclaim 0.1000 and LTC should retest 63.80-65.00.
Summary
Thursday’s Asian session is defined by a bond-market hangover, Japan’s return from holiday and an all-eyes-on-Washington summit. USD/JPY has eased to about 157.80 as the yen catches a modest bid, but a US 10-year yield above 5% and a Fed-BOJ gap keep the trend bullish with intervention risk near 160. AUD/USD near 0.7026 is testing 0.7000 after a mixed jobs report, with an RBA hike still priced for September 29. The Nikkei 225 is near 65,860 on chip strength, copper at $6.7705 is consolidating just under its $6.9285 high, and corn at 529 cents is eyeing summit headlines. Dogecoin at $0.0921 and Litecoin at $60.55 are the most exposed to any further rise in US yields. The main catalysts ahead are the Trump-Xi talks, Fed speakers Williams and Barkin, US jobless claims and the 7-year note auction, with DOGE, AUD/USD and USD/JPY carrying the greatest volatility risk.
Asian Session FAQ
Answers based on the current session
Why is USD/JPY slipping from above 158.20 in Asia?
The yen firmed modestly as Japan reopened after a three-day holiday and traders weighed the JGB sell-off, a slowing flash PMI and Ministry of Finance intervention risk near 160, even as a US yield above 5% keeps the underlying trend bullish.
Why is AUD/USD heading toward 0.7000?
Australian unemployment rose to 4.6%, the highest since late 2021, with full-time jobs falling 6.3K, while a firm Dollar and elevated US yields limit rebounds. An RBA hike is widely priced for September 29.
Why is the Nikkei 225 higher on reopening?
It gained about 1.3% at midday on computer-component and chip shares after Meta unveiled a handheld device, and after last Friday’s BOJ-driven rally, though the broader Topix rose only 0.1%.
Why is copper pulling back from near-record levels?
A firmer Dollar and profit-taking capped gains near record highs, even as a halt at the world’s largest copper mine and tightening Shanghai and London stocks support the supply story.
Why did corn fall 1.44% on Wednesday?
A stronger Dollar and profit-taking hit prices near their highest since mid-2023, though a projected global deficit near 30 million tons and hopes for Chinese purchases keep the trend supported.
Why did Dogecoin drop about 8%?
Strong US PMI data pushed the 10-year yield above 5%, triggering $135.8 million in crypto liquidations within an hour, and higher-beta memecoins fell more than Bitcoin.
Why is Litecoin holding up better than most altcoins?
LTC broke a 90-day resistance area on the back of Grayscale’s spot-ETF filing and renewed ETF inflows, so its 2.2% dip sits against a gain of roughly 19% over the past week.
