Capital Street FX | Commodity Market Analysis Report — Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Natural Gas | March 31, 2026
Commodity Market Analysis Report
Live Price Snapshot
Fundamental Analysis
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since March 4, 2026, following U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran that began on February 28. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strait shut and has carried out more than 21 confirmed attacks on merchant vessels. Tanker traffic that normally flows at approximately 20 million barrels per day — roughly 20% of global seaborne oil supply — has fallen to near zero. Insurance withdrawal by major underwriters completed what physical blockade began, as operators refused to transit even when the waterway was not formally mined.
WTI crude oil peaked near $120 per barrel in the initial shock before partially retreating as the IEA coordinated a release of 400 million barrels from global strategic petroleum reserves — the largest such release on record. However, analysts at BCA Research estimate the world is losing 4.5–5 million barrels per day of supply, a figure projected to double by mid-April as reserve cushions are exhausted. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and the UAE’s Fujairah alternative route offer partial bypass capacity, but cannot fully offset a complete Hormuz closure.
On March 31, WTI pulled back to $102.41 after Bloomberg reported that President Trump is considering ending military operations in Iran even if the strait remains closed — a report the White House neither confirmed nor denied. Hours later, the Kuwaiti VLCC Al Salmi was struck by Iranian forces while anchored at the Port of Dubai, reversing the brief optimism and reasserting the crisis premium. The asymmetric risk structure in crude remains heavily skewed to the upside. Goldman Sachs estimates a $14 per barrel war-risk premium is embedded in current prices, corresponding to a full one-month Hormuz closure scenario with spare pipeline capacity deployed.
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at its March 17–18 meeting for the second consecutive hold, following three rate cuts in late 2025 that brought the rate down from a higher peak. The FOMC cited substantial uncertainty surrounding energy-price-driven inflation as the primary reason for caution. The March Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) still projects at least one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, but the median forecast makes no commitment to its timing. Markets have progressively pushed back rate cut expectations from June to Q4 2026 as oil inflation bleeds into core PCE.
A critical institutional transition is approaching. Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair expires on May 25, 2026, with his last rate decision on April 29. Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh — a former Fed governor regarded as more hawkish than Powell — as the incoming Chair triggered a significant gold selloff in mid-March, as it removed a key dovish policy tailwind. Warsh has historically favoured pre-emptive rate hikes and balance sheet normalization, contrasting sharply with the more data-dependent Powell framework. This leadership transition adds a layer of uncertainty to precious metals heading into Q2.
US economic data through late Q1 2026 shows a labor market that remains broadly resilient but with some signs of softening. The JOLTS job openings report for February, due today at 14:00 GMT, is the first major data point of the week, ahead of ADP employment on April 1 and Non-Farm Payrolls on April 3. A softer JOLTS print could revive Q3 rate cut expectations and provide a near-term catalyst for gold. However, with oil above $100 and energy inflation compounding, the Fed’s hands remain substantially tied until the Hormuz situation resolves.
Gold’s Q1 2026 narrative has been one of historic rally followed by severe correction. The metal reached an all-time high near $5,603.22 per ounce in early 2026, fuelled by three converging forces: ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts in late 2025 reducing real yields, escalating Middle East geopolitical tension, and structural central bank accumulation. Having gained approximately 65% in 2025, gold entered 2026 as the best-performing major asset class.
The correction from $5,603 to the current level of $4,557 — approximately 19% — was driven by a strong US dollar rally (DXY heading for its biggest monthly gain since July), profit-taking from over-extended long positioning, and hawkish policy signals from the incoming Fed Chair. The Warsh nomination specifically acted as a structural shift in the monetary backdrop narrative, reversing the “dovish Fed” trade that had been a primary bullion driver. However, the corrective move has brought gold to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the major 2025–2026 advance at $4,528 — a structurally significant support zone.
Silver’s trajectory mirrors gold but with greater volatility. Having set a 52-week high at $121.67 per ounce, silver has declined approximately 40% to $72.66. The industrial demand case for silver remains structurally intact — solar photovoltaic manufacturing and AI infrastructure buildout continue to drive above-trend consumption — but the liquidity-driven selloff in risk assets and the dollar strength have overwhelmed these fundamentals in the short term. Goldman Sachs maintains a $5,400 year-end gold target. UBS targets $5,000 on a 6-month horizon. Morgan Stanley forecasts $4,800 by Q4 2026.
US natural gas is the outlier in the commodity complex — the only instrument in today’s report that is not directly disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz closure. NYMEX Henry Hub futures are trading at $2.839/MMBtu, near their cycle lows and the Fibonacci 0.000 floor at $2.780. The EIA’s March 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects the Henry Hub price to average $3.80/MMBtu across 2026, approximately 34% above current spot levels, driven by higher associated gas production from the oil price surge rather than the Hormuz LNG disruption.
The disconnect between US domestic gas and the global LNG market is structural. The U.S. is the world’s largest LNG exporter and its domestic Henry Hub price reflects internal supply-demand dynamics, not the European TTF or Asian JKM price. European gas prices have surged sharply as Qatar LNG previously transiting Hormuz is disrupted, but this does not directly translate into US Henry Hub upside. Goldman Sachs estimates that in a scenario where Hormuz LNG flows are fully halted for one month, European TTF could reach 100 EUR/MWh — but US domestic prices would remain largely insulated.
The bearish case for NYMEX gas in the near term rests on milder-than-forecast February temperatures that left storage above the seasonal norm, high associated gas production from the oil price-driven drilling surge, and a broader technical breakdown from the February 2026 high at $7.499. The price has broken through all key Fibonacci levels and is approaching the absolute swing low at $2.780. A break below $2.780 would open a path toward the $2.622 52-week low.
The US dollar is on track for its strongest monthly performance since July 2025 as March closes. The DXY has been driven by a combination of energy-shock safe haven demand, the hawkish Warsh Fed Chair nomination, and relative outperformance of the US economy versus the EU and Japan — both of which face more direct exposure to Hormuz LNG supply disruptions. A stronger dollar structurally pressures gold, silver, and oil priced in USD, creating a counter-cyclical headwind for precious metals even as geopolitical risk would typically be supportive.
The dollar-gold relationship has fractured somewhat this year — gold’s 65% 2025 rally occurred alongside a broadly firm dollar, suggesting that structural central bank accumulation and geopolitical safe-haven demand has partially decoupled the traditional inverse correlation. However, in the current correction phase, dollar strength has been the dominant force. The DXY at 100.18 remains below the psychologically important 101–102 resistance zone, and a failure to sustain above 100 would remove a key headwind for precious metals into Q2.
Risk appetite broadly is deteriorating, with the S&P 500 posting five consecutive weekly losses — its longest such streak since before the AI bull market began. Equity volatility (VIX) has spiked above 31, signalling elevated stress that historically correlates with positioning deleveraging across all risk assets. Commodity correlations are becoming increasingly complex: WTI benefits from the supply shock while gold faces a tug-of-war between safe-haven bids and liquidation pressure. The resolution of the Hormuz crisis remains the single biggest binary catalyst for all four instruments in this report.
Today’s Key Economic Events — Tuesday, 31 March 2026
| Time (GMT) | Event | Currency | Impact | Commodity Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (Mar) | EUR | HIGH | Higher-than-expected Eurozone inflation, amplified by oil-price shock from Hormuz, could reinforce ECB hold — bearish for risk appetite, mixed for gold as dollar-support offsets safe-haven demand. |
| 12:30 | Canada GDP (Monthly, Jan) | CAD | MEDIUM | Canadian GDP heavily influenced by oil revenues; a strong print driven by elevated WTI prices could reinforce the oil-positive narrative, providing modest support to crude. |
| 13:45 | Chicago PMI (Mar) | USD | MEDIUM | A contraction print would signal energy-cost-driven manufacturing slowdown, potentially reviving rate cut expectations — near-term bullish for gold and bearish for the US dollar. |
| 14:00 | JOLTS Job Openings (Feb) | USD | HIGH | A softer JOLTS print pointing to labor market cooling would reignite Fed rate cut bets for H2 2026, providing a near-term catalyst for gold recovery above the $4,528 Fibonacci support zone. |
| 14:30 | EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories | USD | HIGH | A draw in inventory levels would confirm the Hormuz supply disruption is feeding into domestic stockpiles, providing renewed upside momentum for WTI toward the $104.70 Fibonacci resistance level. |
| 19:00 | Federal Reserve Beige Book | USD | MEDIUM | Beige Book language on energy prices and consumer demand will be closely parsed for guidance on the April 29 Fed decision; any hint of growth slowdown could reinforce gold’s safe-haven bid into the close. |
Technical Analysis — All Four Instruments
Gold’s daily chart reveals a textbook Fibonacci retracement structure drawn from the swing low at $3,863.48 (the 1.000 level) to the swing high at $5,603.22 (the 0.000 level). Price has corrected through the 0.236 level at $5,192.64, the 0.382 level at $4,938.64, and the 0.500 midpoint at $4,733.35 without any sustained bounce. It is currently consolidating around the 0.618 retracement level at $4,528.06, which represents the most critical structural support in the entire Fibonacci sequence — a level where the correction would need to halt to preserve the larger bullish structure from the 2025 advance.
The moving average alignment is decisively bearish. The fastest moving average (yellow, equivalent to the 5-day SMA, currently near $4,616.75) is pointing sharply lower and has crossed below the intermediate orange moving average (near $4,815.35). The slow orange moving average (approximate 50-day SMA at $4,950.43) has just rolled over and is beginning to slope downward. This “death cross” configuration between the short and intermediate averages confirms the momentum deterioration visible in the oscillator panel below — where the RSI at 39.80 is in bearish territory below 50, and the MACD has crossed bearish with both value and signal lines below the zero axis.
The current session is showing a recovery attempt from the $4,482 low, with price up 0.99% to $4,557.75. For this to constitute more than a technical correction within the downtrend, bulls need to recapture the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $4,528 on a closing basis and then push above the descending short-term moving average at $4,616.75. Failure to hold $4,528 would open the path to the 0.786 retracement at $4,318.79 and potentially the full 1.000 swing low at $3,863.48 on an extreme scenario.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Daily | — | Strong Sell |
| MA Alignment | 10 Sell / 2 Buy | Bearish |
| RSI (14) | 39.80 | Sell |
| MACD | Negative | Sell |
| 5-Day SMA | $4,616.75 | Sell |
| 50-Day SMA | $4,950.43 | Sell |
| Fib Pivot | $4,528.06 | Key Support |
| Fib Level | Price | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 0.000 | $5,603.22 | Swing High / Top |
| 0.236 | $5,192.64 | First Support (Broken) |
| 0.382 | $4,938.64 | Support (Broken) |
| 0.500 | $4,733.35 | Midpoint (Broken) |
| 0.618 | $4,528.06 | Golden Ratio Support ⚡ |
| → Current | $4,557.75 | ↑ Above 0.618 Support |
| 0.786 | $4,318.79 | Next Major Support |
| 1.000 | $3,863.48 | Swing Low / Base |
Silver’s daily chart tells a dramatic story of a multi-month parabolic advance followed by a structural breakdown. The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the 1.000 swing low at $45.10 (visible in the October 2025 consolidation zone) to the 0.000 swing high at $121.03. The metal has now retraced through the 0.236 level at $103.82, the 0.382 at $93.17, the 0.500 midpoint at $84.56, and has broken below the critical 0.618 retracement at $75.96. Price has today bounced from a morning low near $69.04 — close to the 0.786 level at $63.71 — and is currently near $72.66, recovering but still below the 0.618 breakdown zone.
The moving average complex shows three averages all in bearish alignment. The fastest moving average (approximately the 5-day SMA at $74.14) is sloping steeply lower. The intermediate moving average (near $77.20) has crossed below the slow 50-period average (near $83.98). All three averages are arranged in bearish cascading order — price below all MAs, faster MAs below slower MAs — the hallmark of an established downtrend. The RSI at 40.45 is below the neutral 50 level but not yet deeply oversold at 30, suggesting there is room for further downside before a meaningful washout low is established.
The 3.73% session rally today reflects short-covering in sympathy with gold’s bounce and the broader precious metals complex, but this remains a counter-trend move within the larger bearish structure until silver reclaims $75.96. The loss of that 0.618 level on a daily closing basis — which occurred last week — was a significant technical breakdown, shifting the short-to-medium term trend decisively to the bears. A full retest of the 0.786 support at $63.71 remains the path-of-least-resistance technical target on a continuation of the current trend.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Daily | — | Strong Sell |
| MA Alignment | 10 Sell / 2 Buy | Bearish |
| RSI (14) | 40.45 | Sell |
| MACD | Negative | Sell |
| 5-Day SMA | $74.14 | Sell |
| 50-Day SMA | $83.98 | Sell |
| Fib Pivot | $75.96 | Broken Support |
| Fib Level | Price | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 0.000 | $121.03 | Swing High / Top |
| 0.236 | $103.82 | Support (Broken) |
| 0.382 | $93.17 | Support (Broken) |
| 0.500 | $84.56 | Midpoint (Broken) |
| 0.618 | $75.96 | Golden Ratio (BROKEN) 🔴 |
| → Current | $72.66 | ↓ Below 0.618 |
| 0.786 | $63.71 | Next Target |
| 1.000 | $45.10 | Swing Low / Base |
The WTI crude oil chart presents the sharpest Fibonacci extension structure in today’s report. The Fibonacci sequence is drawn from the 1.000 swing low at $55.24 (December 2025) to the 0.000 swing high at $119.99 (recent peak), capturing the entire Hormuz-crisis-driven surge. Price is currently at $102.41, just below the 0.236 retracement level at $104.70 — a level that has been tested multiple times in the recent price action. The two moving averages visible on the chart (the yellow fast MA at approximately $92.73 and the orange slow MA at approximately $75.74) are both pointing steeply upward and are well below the current price, reflecting the velocity of the recent advance.
The RSI indicator in the lower panel at 68.57 (yellow) and 66.05 (purple) has pulled back from the recent extreme high near 90 following the peak near $120, but remains comfortably above the 50-neutral zone. This is consistent with a bullish trend that has paused for consolidation rather than reversed. The RSI pullback from 90+ to 68 suggests some of the excessive speculative positioning has unwound, creating a healthier technical environment for the next leg higher if supply news supports it. The upward channel drawn on the chart from the swing low remains intact, with price holding above the channel support trendline.
Today’s intraday volatility — a $6 swing between $100.83 and $106.86 — reflects the binary geopolitical news flow. The Bloomberg Trump-withdrawal report drove the morning selloff; the Al Salmi tanker strike reversed it. WTI’s structural position remains bullish above the 0.236 Fibonacci at $104.70 on a daily close basis. A sustained break above $104.70 targets a retest of $119.99. The risk to the downside is a clean break below $100 (psychological support) that opens a path to $95.25 (0.382 Fib). The EIA inventory data at 14:30 GMT today is the most significant near-term catalyst for the crude position.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Daily | — | Buy |
| MA Alignment | 8 Buy / 4 Sell | Bullish |
| RSI (14) | 68.57 | Buy |
| MACD | Positive | Buy |
| 5-Day SMA | $92.73 | Buy |
| 50-Day SMA | $75.74 | Buy |
| Fib Resistance | $104.70 | Test Zone |
| Fib Level | Price | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 0.000 | $119.99 | Swing High / Peak |
| 0.236 | $104.70 | Immediate Resistance ⚡ |
| → Current | $102.41 | ↓ Below 0.236 Resistance |
| 0.382 | $95.25 | First Support |
| 0.500 | $87.61 | Midpoint Support |
| 0.618 | $79.97 | Golden Ratio Support |
| 0.786 | $69.09 | Deep Support |
| 1.000 | $55.24 | Swing Low / Base |
Natural gas presents the most technically bearish chart in today’s report. The Fibonacci sequence is drawn from the 1.000 swing base at $2.780 to the 1.618 extension peak at $10.419, with the 0.000 labeled swing high at $7.499 representing the February 2026 spike high. Price has retraced through every Fibonacci level — the 0.236 at $3.894, the 0.382 at $4.582, the 0.500 at $5.139, the 0.618 at $5.696, the 0.786 at $6.489, and the 1.000 level at $7.499 — and is now resting at $2.839, just $0.059 above the absolute floor at $2.780. Three descending moving averages at $3.800 (upper orange), $3.419 (mid yellow), and $3.037 (lower orange) cascade in bearish alignment above the current price.
The RSI in the lower panel shows the main line at 45.44 and the signal at 40.91 — both below 50, confirming sustained bearish momentum. The RSI has not reached deeply oversold levels during this decline, which itself reflects the relentless nature of the selling pressure. When RSI remains sticky in the 35–50 range during a downtrend without bouncing to 60+, it typically indicates a trending market rather than an exhaustion setup. The three moving averages in perfect descending order — price below all, fastest MA below intermediate MA below slowest MA — confirm this is not a sideways market but an active bearish trend.
The narrowing of the daily range to just $0.098 (from $2.803 to $2.901 today) suggests the market is compressing as it approaches the $2.780 floor. A break below $2.780 on volume would be a technically significant event, potentially triggering stop-loss sell orders below the cycle low. Conversely, the proximity to this floor makes counter-trend long trades increasingly tempting — but the macro narrative (excess storage, mild weather, high associated gas production) provides no fundamental justification for a reversal until storage data changes materially. Natural gas stands alone as the one instrument in this report that is largely decoupled from the Hormuz supply shock.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Daily | — | Strong Sell |
| MA Alignment | 10 Sell / 0 Buy | Full Sell |
| RSI (14) | 40.91 | Sell |
| MACD | Negative | Sell |
| 5-Day SMA | $3.037 | Sell |
| 50-Day SMA | $3.419 | Sell |
| Fib Floor | $2.780 | Cycle Low |
| Fib Level | Price | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 1.000 (Swing Hi) | $7.499 | Feb 2026 Spike High |
| 0.786 | $6.489 | Resistance (Broken) |
| 0.618 | $5.696 | Resistance (Broken) |
| 0.500 | $5.139 | Midpoint (Broken) |
| 0.382 | $4.582 | Support (Broken) |
| 0.236 | $3.894 | Support (Broken) |
| → Current | $2.839 | ↓ Approaching 0.000 Floor |
| 0.000 (Floor) | $2.780 | Cycle Low Support ⚡ |
Session Conclusion
Three of four instruments in today’s report carry Strong Sell signals on the daily timeframe from Investing.com — Gold, Silver, and Natural Gas. Only WTI crude oil bucks the trend, registering a Buy signal as the sole direct beneficiary of the Strait of Hormuz supply disruption. This creates a bifurcated commodity landscape: energy is structurally bid while precious metals and domestic gas face opposing forces of dollar strength, institutional deleveraging, and policy uncertainty. The macro narrative is unified, however: every instrument in this report is downstream of the geopolitical binary that is the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The timeline cited by oil industry analysts is mid-April — if the strait remains closed beyond that, the supply deficit doubles, and WTI’s path toward $120+ re-opens with material fundamental support.
Precious metals sit at technically defining levels. Gold is defending the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $4,528.06 — a violation of which would be a structurally significant deterioration that could trigger algorithmic selling toward $4,319. Silver has already lost its $75.96 equivalent support, with the $63.71 (0.786 Fib) as the next legitimate support below. The incoming Fed Chair transition (Warsh replacing Powell after April 29) and a potential policy hawkishness shift has materially altered the monetary tailwind for precious metals that drove their 2025 rally. Real yields remain the dominant transmission mechanism: if oil-driven inflation prevents the Fed from cutting even as growth slows, the stagflationary environment would present a unique challenge for gold’s traditional role.
Natural gas’s cycle-low approach at $2.780 deserves attention as a potential exhaustion setup, even if the technical and fundamental backdrop remains bearish. The April 28 settlement creates roll pressure. The EIA storage data at 14:30 GMT today and the week’s employment data culminating in NFP on April 3 are the most immediate catalysts across all four instruments. Traders entering any position today are advised to size conservatively given the binary, headline-driven nature of the Hormuz geopolitical situation.
