Crude Craters as the Strait of Hormuz Reopens While the Euro Holds Near Seven-Week Highs Into a Record-Chasing FTSE | Technical Analysis – European Session | 03-08-2026
Crude Craters as the Strait of Hormuz Reopens While the Euro Holds Near Seven-Week Highs Into a Record-Chasing FTSE
EUR/USD · GBP/USD · Copper · Crude Oil · FTSE 100 · EU 10Y Bund · XRP · ETH/USD — live London, Frankfurt and Zurich coverage through the European session
“The Gulf’s supply shock is unwinding in real time — crude is giving back a chunk of its conflict-era premium just as the Euro area posts its best growth print in over a year; London opens caught between cheaper energy and a wobblier energy sector.”
Monday’s European trade is dominated by a sharp reversal in crude oil. WTI futures are trading close to $79.70 a barrel, down roughly 5–6% from Friday’s $84.67 close, as maritime intelligence shows tanker traffic resuming through the Strait of Hormuz and Washington moves to relax restrictions on Iranian crude exports after months of intermittent conflict in the Gulf. The de-escalation is the dominant cross-asset theme this morning: it is easing the inflation calculus for the ECB and Bank of England, taking pressure off Eurozone bond yields, and feeding into a firmer open for European equities even as UK-listed energy majors Shell and BP give back part of the gains they built during the height of the Middle East tensions.
EUR/USD is holding just above 1.1520, close to its strongest level since mid-June, supported by Friday’s stronger-than-expected Eurozone Q2 GDP print of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter against a 0.2% forecast and by markets fully pricing an ECB deposit-rate path toward 2.75% by early 2027. GBP/USD is firmer near 1.3324 as UK political uncertainty continues to fade following last week’s change of prime minister and a pledge of continued fiscal discipline. The FTSE 100 is set to open firmer near 10,925 after a blockbuster July that took the index above 10,970 to a fresh record, with lower energy input costs offsetting a pullback in oil-linked heavyweights. In fixed income, the German 10-year Bund yield is easing back toward 3.14% after touching a 15-year high near 3.21% last week, as the oil-driven inflation scare shows signs of cooling. Copper is firm near $6.47 a pound on tightening mine supply and relief that the Federal Reserve’s steady hand at last week’s meeting removed one source of demand uncertainty. In digital assets, XRP is consolidating near $1.06 after Ripple’s routine start-of-month escrow release, while Ether is testing its 50-day moving average near $1,845 as traders position for a data-heavy week culminating in Friday’s US payrolls report.
European Session News Flow
The stories moving EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Copper, Crude Oil, FTSE 100, EU 10Y Bund, XRP and ETH/USD this session
European Session Economic Calendar — 3 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through London, Frankfurt and Zurich trading hours (CET/BST as noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇳Overnight | Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz to Tanker Traffic | WTI Crude slides roughly 5–6% from $84.67 to near $79.70 | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary cross-asset driver of today’s European session |
| 🇪🇺08:00 CET | Eurozone Final Q2 GDP Confirmation | Confirms 0.4% QoQ growth vs 0.2% forecast, fastest since early 2025 | 🔴 CRITICAL | Reinforces hawkish ECB repricing, supportive of the Euro |
| 🇬🇧09:30 BST | UK Manufacturing PMI (Final) | Prior flash reading tracked modest expansion | 🟢 MEDIUM | Focus on new-order momentum after last week’s PM transition |
| 🇪🇺Ongoing | German Bund Yield Retreats From 15-Year High | Yield eases toward 3.14% from last week’s peak near 3.21% | 🔴 CRITICAL | Oil collapse takes pressure off Eurozone inflation expectations |
| 🇬🇧Ongoing | FTSE 100 Extends July’s Record Run | Set to open near 10,925 after topping 10,970 in July | 🟢 MEDIUM | Cheaper energy inputs offset a pullback in Shell and BP |
| 🇺🇸15:00 CET | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | Consensus points to continued modest expansion | 🟢 MEDIUM | First major US data point of a payrolls-week that spans both desks |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | Palantir Q2 Earnings Read-Through | Reported after Monday’s US close following eight consecutive beats | 🟢 MEDIUM | Sets the tone for European tech sentiment into Tuesday’s open |
European Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
EUR/USD
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/USD is holding near 1.1526, close to its strongest level since mid-June, after the Eurozone economy expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, beating the 0.2% consensus and marking its fastest growth since early 2025. Annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, reinforcing bets that the ECB’s deposit rate will reach 2.75% by early 2027, implying two further hikes with the first potentially as soon as September, while the collapse in crude prices removes a key source of imported-inflation pressure on the currency bloc.
Technical Outlook
The pair is grinding higher within a well-defined uptrend that has taken it from below 1.1360 four weeks ago to today’s levels. A hold above the 1.1440 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 1.1620 target; a break below the 1.1360 stop-loss level would risk a slide back toward 1.1300 should the ECB-hike narrative lose momentum.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any follow-through commentary from ECB officials on the September rate-hike odds; (2) the trajectory of crude prices following the Hormuz reopening; (3) US ISM Manufacturing data this afternoon; (4) positioning ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.
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GBP/USD
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3324, extending a gain of more than 1% over the past week, as investors continue to welcome the appointment of the UK’s seventh prime minister in a decade and a fresh pledge to maintain fiscal discipline. The pair is also drawing modest support from the broader Dollar softness tied to today’s oil-driven risk-on tone across European markets.
Technical Outlook
Sterling is consolidating in a shallow uptrend after last month’s rebound from below 1.31. A hold above the 1.3230 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 1.3480 target; a break below the 1.3140 stop-loss level would risk a retest of the 1.3010 area should political uncertainty resurface.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) the final UK Manufacturing PMI print at 09:30 BST; (2) any fresh commentary from the new government on fiscal policy; (3) Bank of England speakers on the path for UK rates; (4) broader Dollar direction tied to today’s oil-price collapse.
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Copper
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
Copper futures are holding firm near $6.47 a pound, up close to 46% over the past twelve months, as tightening mine supply and relief over the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady last week support the demand outlook for industrial metals. The metal continues to draw longer-term support from the global energy transition and rapid data-centre buildout, even as China’s Politburo signals reliance on existing stimulus tools rather than fresh broad-based measures.
Technical Outlook
Copper remains in a strong uptrend, gaining more than 5.6% over the past four weeks and trading within a 52-week range of $4.37 to $6.72. A hold above the $6.20 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the $6.75 target; a break below the $5.95 stop-loss level would risk a deeper pullback toward $5.60.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further signals from China’s Politburo on fiscal and industrial support; (2) US ISM Manufacturing data this afternoon for a read on industrial demand; (3) ongoing mine-supply disruption headlines from Chile and Peru; (4) the Dollar’s broader trajectory following today’s oil-driven moves.
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Crude Oil (WTI)
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
WTI Crude has collapsed roughly 5–6% from Friday’s close of $84.67 to trade near $79.70, its sharpest single-session decline in weeks, as maritime tracking data shows a resumption of tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz and the US moves to ease restrictions on Iranian crude following months of intermittent Gulf hostilities. The “war premium” that had inflated prices during the conflict is being priced out rapidly, with the 52-week range now spanning $54.98 to $117.63.
Technical Outlook
The contract has broken sharply below its recent consolidation range, confirming a shift in short-term momentum to the downside after weeks of elevated, conflict-driven pricing. A failure to reclaim the $83.50 sell zone keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the $74.00 target; a push back above the $86.00 stop-loss level would risk a squeeze higher should fresh Gulf hostilities resurface.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) confirmation of sustained tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz; (2) further detail on the scope of eased US sanctions on Iranian oil; (3) any renewed flare-up in US-Iran tensions that could reverse the move; (4) this week’s EIA inventory data and OPEC+ commentary.
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FTSE 100
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
The FTSE 100 is set to open near 10,925, building on a July that saw the index climb roughly 4.5% to a fresh record above 10,970. Today’s collapse in crude prices is a net positive for the broad index by lowering input costs for consumer and industrial names, even as energy heavyweights Shell and BP give back part of the gains they built during the height of Middle East hostilities. Diploma, Schroders and DCC remain among the year’s standout performers, each up more than 35% in 2026.
Technical Outlook
The index remains in a firm uptrend, up 8.9% year-to-date, with price holding well above its short and medium-term moving averages. A hold above the 10,780 entry zone on dips keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 11,150 target; a break below the 10,620 stop-loss level would risk a deeper pullback toward 10,400.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) the scale of the pullback in Shell and BP as crude slides; (2) the final UK Manufacturing PMI at 09:30 BST; (3) US ISM Manufacturing data this afternoon for a read on global demand; (4) any fresh commentary from the new UK government on fiscal policy.
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EU 10Y Bund Yield
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield is easing back toward 3.14%, pulling away from last week’s peak near 3.21%, the highest level since May 2011. The retreat tracks today’s sharp decline in crude prices, which is taking some of the heat out of the inflation expectations that had built through July’s Middle East-driven energy spike and pushed the yield up more than 33 basis points over the past four weeks.
Technical Outlook
Yields remain in a broader uptrend on the back of heavy 2026 debt issuance and firm Eurozone growth data, even as today’s oil-driven pullback offers near-term relief. A failure to reclaim the 3.22% fade zone keeps the near-term downside bias intact and exposes the 3.00% target; a push back above the 3.30% stop-loss level would risk a resumption of the broader uptrend toward 3.35%.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) the durability of today’s oil-price collapse; (2) any fresh ECB commentary on the pace of further rate hikes; (3) upcoming German Bund auction results and issuance calendar; (4) broader Eurozone inflation prints later this week.
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XRP
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
XRP is consolidating near $1.06 after Ripple completed its routine start-of-month escrow release, which added a net 200–300 million tokens to circulating supply once the customary return of roughly 700 million tokens to escrow is accounted for. Attention is turning to the Senate’s dwindling working days to advance the CLARITY Act, along with continued modest inflows into US-listed XRP ETFs that are bucking the broader softness in altcoin sentiment.
Technical Outlook
The token is trading below its 50-day EMA near $1.09, its 100-day EMA near $1.10 and its 200-day EMA near $1.20, with the Relative Strength Index sitting near neutral around 47. A hold above the $1.00 entry zone on dips keeps a recovery attempt intact and exposes the $1.18 target; a break below the $0.94 stop-loss level would risk a deeper slide toward $0.86.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further progress or delay on the Senate’s CLARITY Act timeline; (2) flow data from US-listed XRP ETFs; (3) broader crypto-market risk appetite tied to this week’s US jobs data; (4) any renewed volatility spillover from the Bitcoin and Ether complex.
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ETH/USD
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
Ether is trading near $1,845, pressing against its 50-day moving average around $1,801, with analysts flagging the 100-day average near $1,960 as the next hurdle for bulls. Traders are positioning ahead of a data-heavy US week, with the ETH/BTC ratio recently touching a three-month high, a sign that capital is concentrating in larger-cap crypto assets rather than broadening into an altcoin rally.
Technical Outlook
A monthly close above the 50-day EMA near $1,801 would strengthen the bullish case and raise the odds of a test of the 100-day EMA near $1,960; ETH needs to keep holding above the $1,718–$1,750 zone to keep the near-term outlook constructive. A hold above the $1,750 entry zone on dips keeps the recovery attempt intact and exposes the $1,960 target; a break below the $1,690 stop-loss level would risk a slide back toward $1,600.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) US ISM Manufacturing data and the broader risk tone this afternoon; (2) continued spot ETF flow data for Ether; (3) any fresh developments on the Glamsterdam upgrade roadmap; (4) positioning ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.
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European Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why has crude oil collapsed so sharply today?
Why is the Euro holding up well if global oil markets are so volatile?
If oil is crashing, why would the FTSE 100 open higher when it has heavy energy exposure?
Why are German Bund yields falling today after surging to 15-year highs last week?
European Session Summary — Monday, 3 August 2026 (Live Update)
Monday’s European session has been dominated by a sharp reversal in energy markets: WTI Crude has collapsed roughly 5–6% from Friday’s close of $84.67 to trade near $79.70, as tanker traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz and Washington eases restrictions on Iranian crude following months of fragile Gulf de-escalation. The move is rippling across every asset on this desk. EUR/USD is holding near 1.1526, close to its best level since mid-June, supported by a stronger-than-expected Eurozone Q2 GDP print of 0.4% and hawkish ECB repricing that now fully prices the deposit rate reaching 2.75% by early 2027. GBP/USD is firmer near 1.3324 as UK political uncertainty continues to fade following last week’s change of prime minister. The FTSE 100 is set to open near 10,925, extending July’s roughly 4.5% monthly advance to a fresh record above 10,970, with lower energy costs offsetting a pullback in Shell and BP. Copper is holding firm near $6.47 a pound on tightening mine supply and relief over the Federal Reserve’s steady hand last week. The German 10-year Bund yield is easing back toward 3.14% from last week’s 15-year high near 3.21%, as the oil collapse takes pressure off Eurozone inflation expectations. In crypto, XRP is consolidating near $1.06 after Ripple’s routine August escrow release, while Ether is testing its 50-day moving average near $1,845 ahead of a data-heavy US week that culminates in Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Highest-conviction session idea: sell Crude Oil rallies toward $83.50, targeting $74.00 — the combination of a reopening Strait of Hormuz and eased US restrictions on Iranian crude is a powerful multi-pronged catalyst for further downside, though any renewed flare-up in Gulf tensions is a genuine source of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: EUR/USD buy dips toward 1.1440, stop 1.1360, target 1.1620 — strong Eurozone growth and hawkish ECB repricing are genuine tailwinds, though a rebound in US data or a reversal of the oil collapse are real sources of two-way risk. GBP/USD buy dips toward 1.3230, stop 1.3140, target 1.3480 — fading UK political uncertainty is a genuine tailwind, though a resurgence of fiscal concerns is a real headwind. Copper buy dips toward $6.20, stop $5.95, target $6.75 — tightening mine supply and Fed-hold relief are genuine tailwinds, though a stronger Dollar or a China demand disappointment are real headwinds. Crude Oil sell rallies toward $83.50, stop $86.00, target $74.00 — the Hormuz reopening and eased Iran sanctions are powerful tailwinds for further downside, though renewed Gulf hostilities are a genuine source of two-way risk. FTSE 100 buy dips toward 10,780, stop 10,620, target 11,150 — lower energy costs and a strong 2026 uptrend are genuine tailwinds, though a deeper pullback in energy majors is a real headwind. EU 10Y Bund yield fade rallies toward 3.22%, stop 3.30%, target 3.00% — today’s oil collapse is a genuine tailwind for lower yields near-term, though heavy 2026 issuance remains a structural headwind over the medium term. XRP buy dips toward $1.00, stop $0.94, target $1.18 — steady ETF inflows are a mild tailwind, though price remains capped below its key moving averages. ETH/USD buy dips toward $1,750, stop $1,690, target $1,960 — a monthly close above the 50-day EMA would strengthen the bullish case, though the pair must keep holding above the $1,718 zone to keep the outlook constructive. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are the durability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, any follow-through ECB commentary on the September rate-hike odds, US ISM Manufacturing data this afternoon, and positioning into Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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