Week Ahead: Fed Minutes, US Retail Sales and Iran Headlines Test Gold at 3,880 as Copper Breaks Its Channel | Technical Analysis – Commodity Report | 14 Nov 2026
Commodities Week Ahead | 16–20 November 2026
Week Ahead: Fed Minutes, US Retail Sales and Iran Headlines Test Gold at 3,880 as Copper Breaks Its Channel
- Weekly bias
- Metals weak, energy two-sided
- Gold in its worst run since 1989; dollar at a 19-month high; Fed December hike odds near 90%
- Expected volatility
- High
- China data, US retail sales, EIA stocks, FOMC minutes and Iran headlines between Monday 02:00 GMT and Thursday 15:30 GMT
- Key event
- FOMC minutes
- Wednesday 18 Nov, 19:00 GMT; US retail sales Tuesday 13:30 GMT
- Key pivot level
- 3,852
- Gold’s 2026 low; WTI 84.00 and copper 6.05 are the other lines to watch
Market Overview
Hot inflation drove the commodity complex lower last week. A third above-consensus US CPI report and a PPI near 6.5% a year lifted December Fed hike odds to about 90%, pushed the dollar to a 19-month high and sent the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.1%. The Bloomberg Commodity Index posted a fourth straight weekly decline, and metals took the brunt of it.
Last week by market. Gold fell 4.56% to 3,883.94, its tenth weekly loss in twelve, and touched 3,852, the lowest since October 2025. Silver dropped 6.18% to 48.70, and COMEX copper lost 2.79% to 6.0635, a four-month low. WTI fell 2.10% to 88.92 for a second weekly loss as surplus fears outweighed Hormuz attacks. Natural gas rose 8.1% to 3.242 on cold weather and record LNG flows, while CBOT wheat ended 0.4% higher at 593.63 near four-month lows.
What to watch, in GMT. China’s October activity data lands Monday at 02:00, US retail sales Tuesday at 13:30, EIA crude stocks Wednesday at 15:30 and the FOMC minutes at 19:00, then USDA export sales Thursday at 13:30 and EIA gas storage at 15:30. Fed Chair Warsh and Williams speak on Monday.
We rank the strongest setups where macro direction and chart structure agree, and the weakest where a market sits on a trend line ahead of a binary headline.
Key highlights
- Gold: Bullion sits on its 3,896 average after the worst losing run in almost four decades; 4,000 is the level bulls must reclaim.
- Silver: Price is under every average and near the year-to-date low; the channel floor in the mid-40s is the next test.
- Copper: Futures closed beneath a rising channel that has held since February, with US rate-hike pricing hitting AI-demand hopes.
- Oil: WTI bounced from its rising trendline at 84 as the IEA flagged a surplus and Iran headlines kept swinging prices.
- Natural gas: A weather and LNG squeeze reached 3.397, but storage is building faster than normal.
- Wheat: Prices hold near 4-month lows as Black Sea talks and larger global stocks cap rallies.
Market Snapshot: Close, 13 November 2026
Gold Gold Spot / US Dollar
$3,883.94
-185.69-4.56% week
Range 3,852.62–4,148.60
3,800.004,194.62
Sell near 3,990.00Silver Silver Spot / US Dollar
$48.70
-3.21-6.18% week
Range 48.49–53.72
45.0053.57
Sell near 51.50Copper Copper Futures (COMEX, $ per lb)
$6.0635
-0.1740-2.79% week
Range 6.0503–6.3960
5.60006.4000
Sell near 6.1900WTI Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil Futures
$88.92
-1.91-2.10% week
Range 83.88–91.42
82.97100.00
Buy near 86.00Natural Gas Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures
$3.242
+0.244+8.14% week
Range 2.988–3.397
2.9393.600
Sell near 3.380Wheat US Wheat Futures (CBOT, cents per bushel)
593.63
+2.38+0.40% week
Range 582.25–603.75
570.00618.00
Sell near 603.75- US Dollar Index (DXY)
- 19-month high
- Pressures gold, silver and copper
- Fed December hike odds
- ~90%
- 25 bp; some voices now argue for 50 bp
- US 10-year yield
- >5.1%
- 30-year near 5.5%
- Brent crude
- 95.84
- -2.5% on the week; second weekly fall
Trade Setups for the Week
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Short | 3,990.00 | 4,070.00 | 3,852.00 | 3,800.00 | 1.7 / 2.4 | Medium |
| Silver | Short | 51.50 | 53.80 | 48.50 | 45.00 | 1.3 / 2.8 | Low |
| Copper | Short | 6.1900 | 6.3400 | 6.0200 | 5.8000 | 1.1 / 2.6 | Medium |
| WTI Crude Oil | Long | 86.00 | 82.50 | 91.40 | 97.00 | 1.5 / 3.1 | Low |
| Natural Gas | Short | 3.380 | 3.520 | 3.190 | 2.940 | 1.4 / 3.1 | Low |
| Wheat | Short | 603.75 | 612.00 | 582.25 | 570.00 | 2.6 / 4.1 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to target 1 and target 2, divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Prices are in US dollars, except copper in dollars per pound, natural gas in dollars per MMBtu and wheat in cents per bushel. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Key Market Drivers
The Fed’s hike path drives metals
Three hot CPI reports in a row, a PPI near 6.5% and hawkish Fed speakers have markets pricing a December hike near 90%, with some calling for 50 bp. The dollar and real yields are the common pressure on gold, silver and copper, and the minutes pre-date the inflation data.
Key events: Monday 16 November, Williams at 14:05 GMT and Warsh at about 17:00 GMT; Tuesday 17 November, retail sales at 13:30 GMT; Wednesday 18 November, FOMC minutes at 19:00 GMT.
Oil: surplus data against Iran and Hormuz
The IEA sees a growing surplus and US crude stocks rose 4.7 million barrels, while Houthi attacks, tanker explosions in Hormuz and President Trump’s decision to keep the Iran blockade keep a risk premium in prices. Brent fell 16% the week before last and 2.5% last week.
Key events: Tuesday 17 November, API stocks at about 21:30 GMT; Wednesday 18 November, EIA report at 15:30 GMT.
Copper and China: demand doubts
China’s October data are the first read on industrial demand after copper hit a four-month low. Markets are also reassessing data-centre and electrification demand as higher rates raise financing costs.
Key events: Monday 16 November, China data at 02:00 GMT; Tuesday 17 November, US industrial production at 14:15 GMT.
Gas and grains: weather, storage and the Black Sea
Natural gas is a weather and LNG story against above-average storage injections, while wheat trades the Abu Dhabi peace talks and the USDA’s higher global stocks estimate.
Key events: Thursday 19 November, USDA export sales at 13:30 GMT and EIA gas storage at 15:30 GMT.
Gold at 3,852, WTI at 84.00 and copper at 6.05 mark the three lines most exposed to the retail sales and minutes double. A weekly close beneath any of them would change the picture.
US Data Scenario Analysis
Consensus is for October retail sales of +0.2% (control group +0.4%) on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT, with the FOMC minutes following on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The minutes pre-date the hot CPI report, so live Fed speakers and the retail print carry more weight.
Hawkish: strong retail sales and a hawkish minutes tone lift yields
Higher yields and a larger December hike pressure metals and add to growth worries for copper and grains.
- Gold3,852, then 3,800
- Silver48.49, then 46.41
- Copper6.05, then 5.80
- WTI Crude Oil84.00, then 82.97
- Natural Gas3.19 (weather decides), then 2.94
- Wheat582.25, then 570.00
Softer: weak retail sales reopen the 25 bp versus 50 bp debate
Lower yield expectations allow the oversold metals to bounce, while energy and grains follow weather and geopolitics.
- Gold3,990, then 4,195
- Silver51.90, then 53.57
- Copper6.19, then 6.40
- WTI Crude Oil91.42, then 100.00
- Natural Gas3.38, then 3.60 (weather decides)
- Wheat603.75, then 618.00
Gold | Gold Spot / US Dollar
Gold Outlook: Worst Losing Run Since 1989 Leaves Bullion on the 3,896 Average as Fed Hike Bets Build
$3,883.94 -185.69 (-4.56%) week Range 3,852.62–4,148.60
Outlook: Bias is lower while 4,070 caps rallies. Gold fell 4.56% on the week to 3,884, its lowest weekly close since October 2025, after a third straight hot US CPI report and a PPI print near 6.5% a year lifted December Fed hike odds and Treasury yields. Bullion has now fallen in 10 of the last 12 weeks, matching its worst run since 1989. Sell rallies into the 3,990–4,006 recovery zone rather than chase the lows.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 3,800.00
- Support 1
- 3,852.62
- Resistance 1
- 3,990.00
- Resistance 2
- 4,194.62
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a falling channel since the January record near 5,600; price is in its lower half, so a weekly close under 3,850 would extend the move toward 3,800.
- Averages: 3,895.72 sits at price; 4,194.62 and 4,457.82 sit well above and cap rallies.
- Candle: bearish, opened 4,069.99, ranged 3,852.62–4,148.60 and closed 4.56% lower, near last week’s low.
- Momentum: RSI 38.10 sits under its 46.02 signal line, weak but not yet oversold.
Key technical levels
3,852 is the 12 November low and the 2026 low to date; 3,800 is the next round-number support. On the upside, 3,927 was Friday 13 November’s futures high and 3,990–4,006 is the recovery zone; a weekly close above 4,195 would end the bearish case.
Fundamental drivers
Fed hike pricing and the dollar
Three consecutive above-consensus US CPI readings pushed December Fed hike odds to about 90% and the dollar to a 19-month high. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, and the 10-year yield is above 5.1%. FOMC minutes on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT and US retail sales on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT are the next tests.
Positioning and flows
The London fix near 3,890 was the lowest Friday benchmark since early October 2025. Analysts at Saxo describe short sellers in control and say a recovery above 4,000 is needed to improve the outlook.
Gold trade setup
ShortMedium conviction- Entry
- 3,990.00
- Stop loss
- 4,070.00
- Target 1
- 3,852.00
- Target 2
- 3,800.00
Risk $80. Reward:risk 1.7 to target 1, 2.4 to target 2.
Rationale: Price under three averages, a weak RSI and a hawkish Fed favour selling rallies; the 3,990–4,070 band defines the risk and the stop sits at last week’s open.
Invalidation: A daily close above 4,070. Soft US retail sales, a dovish minutes tone or an Iran escalation that revives safe-haven buying are the main risks.
Silver | Silver Spot / US Dollar
Silver Outlook: Metal Slides Under 50 to a Year-to-Date Low Inside a Falling Channel as Yields Climb
$48.70 -3.21 (-6.18%) week Range 48.49–53.72
Outlook: Bias is lower while 53.57 caps rallies. Silver lost 6.18% on the week to about 48.70, its lowest weekly close since late November 2025 and more than 50% below its January peak, as hawkish Fed expectations and rising yields hit the metal. RSI at 34 is close to oversold, so we sell rallies toward 51.50 rather than chase.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 45.00
- Support 1
- 48.49
- Resistance 1
- 51.90
- Resistance 2
- 53.57
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a falling channel since the January spike above 120; price is in its lower half and the channel floor sits near 45 to the mid-40s.
- Averages: 53.57, 59.94 and 69.63 all sit above price; the nearest was lost last week.
- Candle: bearish, opened 51.90, ranged 48.49–53.72 and closed 6.18% lower.
- Momentum: RSI 34.22 sits under its 43.65 signal line and near oversold.
Key technical levels
48.49 is last week’s low and the year-to-date low area; 46.41 and 45.00 are the next supports. 51.90 (last week’s open) and 53.57 (the nearest average) are the caps; a weekly close above 53.72 would hint at a channel reversal.
Fundamental drivers
Rates and the dollar
Silver follows gold on the Fed path: the dollar at a 19-month high and 10-year yields above 5.1% raise the cost of holding non-yielding metal. The gold/silver ratio rose to about 78–79 as silver underperformed.
Supply and demand
FXEmpire notes that a smaller supply deficit and ETP outflows added to the pressure. Industrial demand is exposed to the same growth worries hitting copper.
Silver trade setup
ShortLow conviction- Entry
- 51.50
- Stop loss
- 53.80
- Target 1
- 48.50
- Target 2
- 45.00
Risk $2.30. Reward:risk 1.3 to target 1, 2.8 to target 2.
Rationale: A channel, price below every average and a hawkish Fed favour selling bounces; 51.50–53.80 defines the risk above last week’s high.
Invalidation: A daily close above 53.80. A softer US retail print, an oversold bounce in gold or a weaker dollar are the main risks.
Copper | Copper Futures (COMEX, $ per lb)
Copper Outlook: Futures Break the Rising Channel Floor at 6.19 as Fed Hike Bets Hit Data-Centre Demand Hopes
$6.0635 -0.1740 (-2.79%) week Range 6.0503–6.3960
Outlook: Bias is lower while 6.19 caps rallies. COMEX copper fell 2.79% on the week to 6.0635, a four-month low, after a hot US CPI report lifted rate-hike pricing and the dollar, and traders reassessed demand from data centres and electrification. Price closed beneath the channel floor that has guided the rally since February, so sell retests of 6.19.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 5.6000
- Support 1
- 5.8000
- Resistance 1
- 6.1900
- Resistance 2
- 6.4000
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a rising channel since the February low near 5.25; last week’s close is below the lower edge, a first break of the trend.
- Averages: 6.1862 sits just above price and 6.5439 above that; the 5.4834 long average is the next big support.
- Candle: bearish, closed 2.79% lower on futures after a failed bounce from the channel floor.
- Momentum: RSI 41.26 has fallen sharply from its 59.48 signal line.
Key technical levels
6.05 is last week’s futures low; 5.80 and 5.60 are the next supports. 6.19 (the average and channel underside) is the first cap, and 6.40 is last week’s high; a weekly close back above 6.40 would negate the break. The chart is a Capital.com CFD quoted near 6.14; levels here use the COMEX contract shown on Investing.com.
Fundamental drivers
Fed hikes and AI-demand doubts
Hot inflation prompted markets to price multiple Fed hikes, lifting the dollar and borrowing costs for debt-funded AI infrastructure, which weighs on copper demand expectations. Trading Economics reported copper at a four-month low.
China and tariffs
China’s October activity data on Monday at 02:00 GMT is the key demand read. A Democratic Congress made threatened US copper tariffs less likely, reducing the premium bid for COMEX copper.
Copper trade setup
ShortMedium conviction- Entry
- 6.1900
- Stop loss
- 6.3400
- Target 1
- 6.0200
- Target 2
- 5.8000
Risk 15 cents. Reward:risk 1.1 to target 1, 2.6 to target 2.
Rationale: A channel break, price under the 6.19 average and a falling RSI favour selling the retest; 6.19–6.34 defines the risk.
Invalidation: A daily close above 6.34. Strong Chinese data, a soft US retail print or renewed tariff talk are the main risks.
WTI Crude Oil | WTI Crude Oil Futures
WTI Crude Outlook: Oil Bounces Off the Rising Trendline at 84 as Surplus Fears Clash With Hormuz Risk
$88.92 -1.91 (-2.10%) week Range 83.88–91.42
Outlook: Bias is two-sided with support at 84. WTI fell 2.1% on the week to 88.92, its second straight weekly loss after the previous week’s steep drop, as signs of a global surplus and a 4.7 million barrel rise in US crude stocks outweighed fresh attacks on Gulf shipping. A long wick to 83.88 held the rising trendline, so buy dips toward 86 with a tight stop and treat headlines as the main risk.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 82.97
- Support 1
- 84.00
- Resistance 1
- 91.42
- Resistance 2
- 100.00
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a triangle between a falling line from the March high near 120 and a rising line from the December 2025 low; last week’s low tested the rising line.
- Averages: 88.76 sits at price, 82.97 below it and 74.23 well below.
- Candle: bearish with a long lower wick, opened 90.83, ranged 83.88–91.42 and closed 2.10% lower.
- Momentum: RSI 49.69 is neutral and sits under its 55.06 signal line.
Key technical levels
83.88 is last week’s low and sits on the rising trendline and the 82.97 average; a close under 82.97 would break the triangle. 91.42 is last week’s high and the first cap; the falling line and 100.00 are the next resistance.
Fundamental drivers
Supply, inventories and the IEA
The IEA has highlighted a growing global surplus, and EIA data showed crude stocks up 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million in the week to 6 November against an expected draw. Brent settled at 95.84 on Friday and lost about 2.5% on the week. API data follows on Tuesday at 21:30 GMT and EIA on Wednesday at 15:30 GMT.
Iran and Hormuz
Reuters reported that President Trump would keep the Iran blockade, and Houthi attacks on Saudi sites and tanker explosions in Hormuz briefly lifted prices on Thursday 12 November. Any deal or fresh attack can move crude 2–3% in a session.
WTI Crude Oil trade setup
LongLow conviction- Entry
- 86.00
- Stop loss
- 82.50
- Target 1
- 91.40
- Target 2
- 97.00
Risk $3.50. Reward:risk 1.5 to target 1, 3.1 to target 2.
Rationale: A bounce from the rising trendline and average gives a defined risk below 82.50, but surplus data keep conviction low; 86.00 is a dip entry near the 10 November close.
Invalidation: A daily close below 82.50. A US–Iran deal, rising US stocks or weaker Chinese data are the main risks.
Natural Gas | Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures
Natural Gas Outlook: December Futures Jump 8% on Cold and Record LNG, but the Channel Top and 3.38 Cap the Squeeze
$3.242 +0.244 (+8.14%) week Range 2.988–3.397
Outlook: Bias is lower while 3.38 caps rallies. Henry Hub futures rose about 8% on the week to 3.242 on the first nor’easter of the season, record LNG feedgas and short covering, touching 3.397 on 11 November, the highest since mid-October. Friday’s 2.9% pullback and above-average storage injections left price at the falling channel top and 3.378 average, so sell the retest only with a tight stop.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2.939
- Support 1
- 3.185
- Resistance 1
- 3.397
- Resistance 2
- 3.600
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a falling channel from the January spike; price is testing its upper edge, so a weekly close above 3.40 would break the channel.
- Averages: 3.185 sits just below price and 2.939 further down; 3.378 caps above.
- Candle: bullish, opened 3.032, ranged 2.988–3.397 and closed 7.7% higher on the continuous chart (+8.1% on the Investing.com quote).
- Momentum: RSI 54.49 sits above its 48.62 signal line, turning up from neutral.
Key technical levels
3.397 is last week’s high and 3.378 the average; above them 3.60 is the next target. 3.185 is first support, then the 2.988 week low and the 2.939 average. The Investing.com front-month quote is 3.242; the chart’s continuous contract closed at 3.230.
Fundamental drivers
Weather, LNG and storage
Forecasts called for cooler weather to about 20 November, and a nor’easter lifted Northeast spot prices. LNG feedgas is at record levels and production is slipping. Against that, the EIA reported a 61 Bcf injection for the week to 6 November, and it expects Henry Hub to average 2.87 from November to March, below futures.
Positioning and Europe
Analysts describe a record short squeeze. European TTF gas rose about 12% on the week as US–Iran diplomacy faltered, which supports US LNG export demand. EIA storage data is due Thursday at 15:30 GMT.
Natural Gas trade setup
ShortLow conviction- Entry
- 3.380
- Stop loss
- 3.520
- Target 1
- 3.190
- Target 2
- 2.940
Risk $0.14. Reward:risk 1.4 to target 1, 3.1 to target 2.
Rationale: The channel top and 3.378 average cap a weather-driven squeeze, and storage is building faster than normal; 3.38–3.52 defines the risk.
Invalidation: A daily close above 3.52. A longer cold spell, record LNG flows or a stronger short squeeze are the main risks.
Wheat | US Wheat Futures (CBOT, cents per bushel)
Wheat Outlook: Futures Hold Near 4-Month Lows After Breaking the Rising Channel as Black Sea Talks Weigh
593.63 +2.38 (+0.40%) week Range 582.25–603.75
Outlook: Bias is lower while 604 caps rallies. CBOT December wheat ended the week at 593.63 cents, up 0.4% after a dip to 582.25 on 12 November and a Friday rebound, but still near its lowest since early July and about 25% below the August high. Hopes of a Black Sea shipping deal, USDA cuts to Russian and Ukrainian exports and higher global stocks all keep rallies shallow, so sell bounces into 604.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 570.00
- Support 1
- 582.25
- Resistance 1
- 603.75
- Resistance 2
- 618.00
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a rising channel from the December 2025 low to the August high near 790 has broken; price is back in the pre-rally range.
- Averages: 618.2 sits above price and 673.8 higher; the 581.9 long average is the next support.
- Candle: small bullish body on futures after a 12 November low of 582.25 and a Friday rebound.
- Momentum: RSI 41.23 sits under its 55.42 signal line and is falling.
Key technical levels
582.25 is last week’s low and the long average; 570.00 is the next support. 603.75 (last week’s high) and 618 (the average) are the caps; a weekly close above 618 would negate the break. The chart is a FOREX.com CFD that trades above futures; levels here use the ZWZ6 contract quoted on Investing.com.
Fundamental drivers
Black Sea and USDA
The USDA’s 10 November WASDE cut 2026-27 wheat exports for Russia to 39 million tons and Ukraine to 11.5 million, yet raised global ending stocks by 4.8 million tons to 280.8 million. Russia–Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi have yet to deliver a safe-shipping deal; a deal would add supply, a failure would lift prices.
Exports and dollar
Weekly USDA export sales are due Thursday at 13:30 GMT. A stronger dollar and higher yields weigh on US export competitiveness and on commodities generally.
Wheat trade setup
ShortMedium conviction- Entry
- 603.75
- Stop loss
- 612.00
- Target 1
- 582.25
- Target 2
- 570.00
Risk 8.25 cents. Reward:risk 2.6 to target 1, 4.1 to target 2.
Rationale: A channel break, price under the 618 average and a bearish RSI favour selling bounces; 603.75–612.00 defines the risk.
Invalidation: A daily close above 612.00. A Black Sea shipping breakdown, strong export sales or a weaker dollar are the main risks.
Economic Calendar: 16–20 November 2026
| Date | Event | Market | Impact | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 GMT | Japan GDP, preliminary Q3, about 0.8% annualised expected | Gold, Oil | Med | Yen and Asian growth read ahead of the BoJ’s 18 December meeting |
| 02:00 GMT | China activity data (October): industrial output 5.3%, retail sales 0.8% forecast | Copper, Oil | High | Largest metals demand read of the week; weak data adds to copper’s channel break |
| 13:30 GMT | US Empire State manufacturing (November), forecast 17.6 | Copper, Oil | Low | Previous 25.5; early read on US factory demand |
| 14:05 GMT | Fed’s Williams gives opening remarks | Gold, Silver | Med | Follows hot October CPI; Fed Chair Warsh also speaks at about 17:00 GMT |
| 13:30 GMT | US retail sales (October), forecast +0.2%, control group +0.4% | Gold, Silver, Copper | High | Previous +0.8%; a beat keeps December Fed hike odds near 90% |
| 14:15 GMT | US industrial production (October) | Copper | Low | Secondary read on factory demand |
| 21:30 GMT | API weekly crude inventories | Crude Oil | Med | Time approximate; follows last week’s 4.7 million barrel EIA build |
| 15:30 GMT | EIA weekly petroleum status report | Crude Oil | High | Second straight build would confirm surplus fears; 84.00 support in play |
| 19:00 GMT | FOMC minutes (October meeting) | Gold, Silver, Copper | High | Hawkish tone would test 3,852; the minutes pre-date the hot CPI report |
| After US close | Nvidia earnings (week of 16 November) | Copper, Silver | Med | Sets risk tone for AI-linked metals demand; date and time approximate |
| 13:30 GMT | USDA weekly export sales; US jobless claims; Philadelphia Fed index | Wheat, Gold | Med | Last week’s wheat sales were 462,500 tonnes; export pace supports CBOT |
| 15:30 GMT | EIA natural gas storage report | Natural Gas | High | Prior injection 61 Bcf; storage still building faster than normal |
| 23:30 GMT | Japan CPI (October) | Gold | Low | BoJ December hike odds feed the dollar and yen |
| 18:00 GMT | Baker Hughes US rig count | Crude Oil, Natural Gas | Low | Approximate time; weekly drilling read |
All times GMT. Consensus figures from FXStreet, CMC Markets, Kiplinger and Dow Jones; times marked approximate follow standard release schedules.
Conclusion
One idea links the week: the Fed is closer to a December hike than markets thought a month ago, and that lifts the dollar and yields against gold, silver, copper and grains. US retail sales and the FOMC minutes test it, while Iran and Black Sea headlines decide energy and wheat.
On conviction, gold, copper and wheat rate medium because price sits under key averages or beneath a broken channel. Silver, WTI and natural gas rate low because silver is near oversold, oil sits on a rising trendline and gas faces a weather-driven squeeze.
We treat every level as conditional, let the event windows pass before adding exposure and size positions so that a stop-out is affordable. Spreads can widen sharply around China data, US retail sales, EIA reports and the FOMC minutes.
| Instrument | Bias | Key level | Targets | Invalidation | Principal risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Sell near 3,990.00 | 3,990 | 3,852 / 3,800 | Above 4,070 | Soft US retail sales, dovish minutes |
| Silver | Sell near 51.50 | 53.57 | 48.50 / 45.00 | Above 53.80 | Oversold bounce, weaker dollar |
| Copper | Sell near 6.1900 | 6.19 | 6.02 / 5.80 | Above 6.34 | Strong China data, tariff talk |
| WTI Crude Oil | Buy near 86.00 | 82.97 | 91.40 / 97.00 | Below 82.50 | US–Iran deal, rising stockpiles |
| Natural Gas | Sell near 3.380 | 3.378 | 3.19 / 2.94 | Above 3.52 | Longer cold spell, LNG records |
| Wheat | Sell near 603.75 | 603.75 | 582.25 / 570.00 | Above 612.00 | Black Sea breakdown, strong exports |
Trade Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Wheat with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which events decide commodities this week?
FOMC minutes on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT and US retail sales on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT drive gold, silver and copper. China data on Monday at 02:00 GMT matters for copper, EIA crude stocks on Wednesday at 15:30 GMT for oil and EIA gas storage on Thursday at 15:30 GMT for natural gas.
Why did gold fall so hard last week?
A third straight hot US CPI print pushed December Fed hike odds to about 90% and lifted the dollar to a 19-month high and the 10-year yield above 5.1%. Gold lost 4.56%, its tenth weekly fall in twelve weeks, and touched 3,852, the lowest since October 2025.
Is oil more likely to fall or rise next week?
The chart is two-sided: WTI bounced from a rising trendline at 84 but faces surplus data and a second weekly loss. Iran and Hormuz headlines can move crude 2–3% in one session, so size positions with wide spreads and gaps in mind.
Why did natural gas jump 8% last week?
December Henry Hub futures rose on the first nor’easter of the season, record LNG feedgas and a short squeeze. Above-average storage injections and the 3.38 resistance cap the rally unless the cold lasts beyond the current forecast.
How can traders manage risk in an event-heavy week?
Reduce size before major releases, avoid new entries in the minutes around them and allow for wider spreads. Use defined stops, and remember that geopolitical headlines and weekend gaps can pass through them.
