Gold Below $4,000, Silver at a 2026 Low, Oil Near $117: Fed and PCE Decide the Next Move | Technical Analysis – Commodity Report | 24 oct 2026
Commodities This Week | 26–30 October 2026
Gold Below $4,000, Silver at a 2026 Low, Oil Near $117: Fed and PCE Decide the Next Move
- Weekly bias
- Metals weak, energy firm
- Bullion and wheat under pressure; crude supported by Gulf risk
- Expected volatility
- High
- Fed, GDP and PCE plus the natural gas expiry fall within 24 hours
- Key event
- Fed decision
- Wednesday 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT
- Key pivot level
- 3,975
- Gold weekly low; a weekly close below it opens the 3,857 average
Market Overview
Commodities split in two last week. Gold had its worst week in more than four months and fell below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July, while silver dropped to a 2026 low under $54. Higher oil revived inflation fears and kept a December Fed hike in play even as October hike odds collapsed, so real-yield pressure outweighed safe-haven demand. Crude moved the other way: Brent settled at $116.72, its highest since 29 April, after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Natural gas lost 15.28% as mild weather forecasts erased the premium, and wheat posted an eighth weekly decline in CBOT futures, the longest run since 1997, as hopes of Black Sea peace talks removed risk premium. Copper held near its rising channel floor, but LME stocks climbed to the highest since July.
The Fed decides on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, with a hold at 3.75–4.00% expected, and September PCE inflation and Q3 GDP follow on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The NYMEX November natural gas contract expires on Wednesday, US midterm elections come on 3 November, and Black Sea talks are tentatively set for 10 November. We rate crude and wheat highest, where chart structure and the news flow agree, and copper and natural gas lowest.
Key highlights
- Fed: CME FedWatch shows about a 90% chance of a hold and roughly 85–90% for a December hike (FXStreet, Newsquawk).
- Gold and silver: Gold closed at 3,995.38 (-4.08%) and silver at 53.828 (-5.52%), both beneath key averages with RSI in the 30s.
- Crude oil: WTI is pressing the triangle top near 105; Brent settled at 116.72 and the Brent premium has widened to about $13.
- Natural gas: A 15% weekly drop met 3,644 Bcf of storage, 1.0% above the five-year average; November expires on Wednesday.
- Copper: LME stocks near 273,000 tonnes and a technology sell-off weigh, while Chinese import premiums are the highest since October 2022.
- Wheat: CBOT December settled at 625.00 and price has broken its rising channel on peace-talk hopes.
Market Snapshot: Weekly Close, 23 October 2026
Gold Gold Spot / US Dollar (XAU/USD)
3,995.38
-169.79-4.08% week
Range 3,975.79–4,190.38
3,8574,230
Sell near 4,075Silver Silver Spot / US Dollar (XAG/USD)
53.828
-3.147-5.52% week
Range 53.031–58.601
50.0062.10
Sell near 56.50Copper Copper (USD per lb)
6.5667
-0.0560-0.84% week
Range 6.434–6.708
6.1147.000
Buy near 6.450Crude Oil (WTI) WTI Crude Oil (USD per barrel)
103.45
+4.40+4.44% week
Range 95.25–103.92
95.25110.00
Buy near 101.50Natural Gas Henry Hub front month (USD per MMBtu)
2.640
-0.476-15.28% week
Range 2.620–3.184
2.5202.964
Sell near 2.850Wheat Wheat Cash Contract (US cents per bushel)
632.0
-35.9-5.38% week
Range 629.5–673.8
571.2671.6
Sell near 655.0- Brent crude
- $116.72
- Highest settlement since 29 April; up about 6% on the week
- US 10-year yield
- about 5.00%
- Elevated real yields pressure bullion
- December Fed hike odds
- 85–90%
- October hike odds near 10%
- US gas storage
- 3,644 Bcf
- Up 77 Bcf; 1.0% above the five-year average
Weekly closes come from the TradingView feeds shown in this report. Front-month futures settled at WTI 103.27 (+2.3% on the week), Brent 116.72, COMEX copper near 6.50 and CBOT December wheat 625.00; copper and wheat charts are CFD prices that sit slightly above those futures. Spot gold was 3,995.81 and spot silver 53.80 (Kitco).
Trade Setups for the Week
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Short | 4,075 | 4,160 | 3,975 | 3,857 | 1.2 / 2.6 | Medium |
| Silver | Short | 56.50 | 58.70 | 53.00 | 50.00 | 1.6 / 3.0 | Medium |
| Copper | Long | 6.450 | 6.290 | 6.708 | 7.000 | 1.6 / 3.4 | Low |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | Long | 101.50 | 97.50 | 107.00 | 112.00 | 1.4 / 2.6 | Medium |
| Natural Gas | Short | 2.850 | 2.970 | 2.620 | 2.520 | 1.9 / 2.7 | Low |
| Wheat | Short | 655.0 | 675.0 | 613.0 | 571.0 | 2.1 / 4.2 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to target 1 and target 2, divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Prices are in US dollars per ounce (gold, silver), per pound (copper), per barrel (WTI) and per MMBtu (natural gas), and US cents per bushel (wheat). Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Key Market Drivers
A hold is expected, so December guidance decides the metals
Fed funds stand at 3.75–4.00%. With a hike priced at only about 10% for October and 85–90% for December, the statement and press conference matter more than the decision. Thursday’s PCE print lands after the Fed, so it works as a confirmation trade on whatever bias the statement leaves. A hawkish tone extends the slide in gold, silver and copper.
Key events: Wednesday 28 October, decision at 18:00 GMT and press conference at 18:30 GMT; Thursday 29 October, GDP and PCE at 12:30 GMT.
Gulf supply risk keeps crude bid
Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites, the Aramco headquarters evacuation and an unverified Iranian claim of tanker hits pushed Brent to 116.72. Reports of possible US and Israeli strikes on Iran after the midterms add a second layer of risk. The US Energy Department authorised a small SPR exchange, while the rig count held at 603.
Key events: Wednesday 28 October, EIA petroleum report at 14:30 GMT; Friday 30 October, Baker Hughes at 17:00 GMT.
Weather, storage and the expiry set natural gas
Mild forecasts cut 15% from the front month in a week, yet storage is only 1.0% above the five-year average after ten below-average builds. The November contract expires on Wednesday, and reaching the EIA’s 3,850 Bcf end-October forecast needs about 94 Bcf a week against builds of 64–85 Bcf. Any colder shift could squeeze shorts.
Key events: Wednesday 28 October, November expiry at 18:30 GMT; Thursday 29 October, EIA storage at 14:30 GMT.
China, inventories and the Black Sea steer copper and wheat
Copper faces rising LME stocks and a narrowing COMEX premium, offset by firm Chinese import demand. Wheat has shed its Black Sea premium on hopes of US-mediated talks, tentatively set for 10 November, while Southern Hemisphere harvests add supply. Both markets are oversold on weekly charts, which raises the risk of sharp counter-trend moves.
Key events: Tuesday 27 October, China industrial profits at 01:30 GMT; Thursday 29 October, USDA export sales at 12:30 GMT.
Gold at 3,975 and WTI at 105 mark the two lines most exposed to the Fed and Gulf headlines. A weekly close beyond either would change the picture for metals and energy.
Fed Scenario Analysis
Consensus is a hold at 3.75–4.00% following September’s 25 bps hike. The decision is due on Wednesday 28 October at 18:00 GMT, with the press conference at 18:30 GMT. Natural gas and wheat respond mainly to weather and geopolitics, so their levels show technical reference points only.
Hawkish hold: dissent or a clear December signal
Higher yield expectations lift real rates and the dollar, pressuring metals.
- Gold3,975, then 3,857
- Silver52.99, then 50.00
- Copper6.434, then 6.114
- WTI crude99.00, then 95.25
- Natural gas2.62, then 2.52
- Wheat612.9, then 571.2
Dovish hold: pause with softer guidance
Lower yield expectations give oversold metals room to rebound.
- Gold4,075, then 4,150
- Silver56.94, then 58.60
- Copper6.708, then 7.000
- WTI crude105.00, then 110.00
- Natural gas2.80, then 2.964
- Wheat655.0, then 671.6
GOLD | Gold Spot / US Dollar (XAU/USD)
Gold Outlook: Bears Hold the Break Below $4,000 Into the Fed
3,995.38 -169.79 (-4.08%) week Range 3,975.79–4,190.38
Outlook: Bias is lower while 4,150 caps. Spot gold had its steepest weekly loss in more than four months and closed at 3,995.38, beneath the 4,229.55 average after a low of 3,975.79. Bounces into 4,075–4,150 are the zone to work from, and the 3,856.74 long-term average is the next test.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 3,857
- Support 1
- 3,976
- Resistance 1
- 4,150
- Resistance 2
- 4,230
Weekly chart structure
- Trend: a falling channel since the January record near 5,600; price sits in the lower half with the 3,856.74 average below.
- Averages: 4,229.55 and 4,468.55 sit above price, while 3,856.74 is the nearest long-term support.
- Candle: bearish, opened 4,163.60, high 4,190.38, low 3,975.79, closed 4.08% lower.
- Momentum: RSI 37.97 sits under its 46.63 signal line, close to but not yet in oversold territory.
Key technical levels
3,975.79 is the week’s low and first support; a weekly close beneath it opens 3,856.74. 4,075 and 4,150 are the first resistance zones, and a weekly close above the 4,229.55 average would turn attention to the top of the channel.
Fundamental drivers
Fed and real yields
CME FedWatch showed about a 90% chance of a hold on Wednesday but roughly 85–90% for a December hike, with the 10-year yield near 5%. A hawkish statement keeps real yields high and extends the slide, while a softer tone could spark a bounce from oversold daily readings (RSI near 33, per NordFX).
PCE inflation
September core PCE is seen near 3.0–3.1% a year and lands on Thursday, after the Fed. A hot print would confirm a December hike. Brent near $117 has fed inflation fears, which this month has weighed on gold rather than lifted it.
Gold trade setup
ShortMedium conviction- Entry
- 4,075
- Stop loss
- 4,160
- Target 1
- 3,975
- Target 2
- 3,857
Risk $85. Reward:risk 1.2 to target 1, 2.6 to target 2.
Rationale: A falling channel, two averages overhead and December hike pricing favour selling bounces; an oversold daily RSI argues for quick profit-taking.
Invalidation: A daily close above 4,160. A dovish Fed hold or a fall in oil could squeeze price towards 4,230.
SILVER | Silver Spot / US Dollar (XAG/USD)
Silver Outlook: 2026 Low Tests the 52.99 Average
53.828 -3.147 (-5.52%) week Range 53.031–58.601
Outlook: Bias is lower while 56.94 caps. Silver fell to a 2026 low below 54 and closed at 53.828, just above the 52.991 long-term average, for a second straight weekly loss. Bounces into 56.00–57.00 are the zone to work from, and 52.99 decides whether 50.00 comes into view.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 50.00
- Support 1
- 52.99
- Resistance 1
- 56.94
- Resistance 2
- 62.10
Weekly chart structure
- Trend: a falling channel since the January record near 121; price is in the lower half and the lower boundary sits near 41.
- Averages: 62.10 and 69.78 sit well above price, while the 52.99 average is a hair beneath the close.
- Candle: bearish, opened 56.94, high 58.60, low 53.03, closed 5.52% lower.
- Momentum: RSI 36.59 sits below its 45.32 signal line and is approaching oversold.
Key technical levels
52.99 is the first support and the line the weekly close needs to hold; beneath it, the 50.00 round number (a level FXStreet flags) is next. 56.94, the week’s open, and 58.60 are the first barriers, and the 62.10 average is the level that would relieve the pressure.
Fundamental drivers
Gold link and real yields
Silver fell about 5.8% on Thursday and slipped again on Friday, weaker than gold as higher oil and a possible December Fed hike lifted real yields (Kitco, FXStreet). It now trades more than 50% below its January record of about 121.7.
Inflation data
Thursday’s PCE and GDP releases decide whether December hike pricing rises further. A firm core print would add pressure, while a soft one would let silver rebound towards 56.94.
Silver trade setup
ShortMedium conviction- Entry
- 56.50
- Stop loss
- 58.70
- Target 1
- 53.00
- Target 2
- 50.00
Risk $2.20. Reward:risk 1.6 to target 1, 3.0 to target 2.
Rationale: A falling channel, averages overhead and a 2026 low favour selling bounces; proximity to the 52.99 average argues for waiting for a rally rather than chasing.
Invalidation: A daily close above 58.70. A dovish Fed hold would likely trigger a short-covering rally.
COPPER | Copper (USD per pound)
Copper Outlook: Rising Channel Floor Near 6.45 Under Pressure
6.5667 -0.0560 (-0.84%) week Range 6.434–6.708
Outlook: Bias is neutral to higher while 6.434 holds. Copper closed at 6.5667, 0.84% lower on the week, at the lower edge of its rising channel and on the 20-week average at 6.546. Dips towards 6.43–6.46 are the zone to work from, but rising LME stocks cap conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 6.114
- Support 1
- 6.434
- Resistance 1
- 6.708
- Resistance 2
- 7.000
Weekly chart structure
- Trend: a rising channel since February; price sits at its lower edge after repeated failures near 6.90–7.00.
- Averages: the 6.546 average is on price, while 6.114 and 5.418 below mark deeper support.
- Candle: bearish, opened 6.6177, high 6.7085, low 6.4343, closed 0.84% lower with a long lower wick.
- Momentum: RSI 54.79 is under its 62.85 signal line but still above 50.
Key technical levels
6.434 is the week’s low and the channel floor; a weekly close beneath it exposes 6.114. 6.708 is the week’s high, and a close above it would put 7.00 and the top of the channel back in play.
Fundamental drivers
Inventories and spreads
LME three-month copper touched about $14,031 a tonne on Thursday, its weakest since 15 September, as LME warehouse stocks rose for a fourth day to roughly 273,000 tonnes, the highest since late July (Reuters via Business Recorder). The COMEX premium over LME has narrowed from about $3,000 to around $310 a tonne, reducing the incentive to ship metal to the US (SunSirs).
Risk tone and China
A technology sell-off weighed on risk appetite this week, but Chinese buying looks firm: the Yangshan import premium rose to $148 a tonne, the highest since October 2022. China’s industrial profits data is due early Tuesday.
Copper trade setup
LongLow conviction- Entry
- 6.450
- Stop loss
- 6.290
- Target 1
- 6.708
- Target 2
- 7.000
Risk 0.160. Reward:risk 1.6 to target 1, 3.4 to target 2.
Rationale: The channel floor and 20-week average favour buying dips; rising LME stocks and a falling momentum line keep conviction low.
Invalidation: A daily close below 6.290. A hawkish Fed hold that lifts the dollar would pressure industrial metals.
CRUDE OIL | WTI Crude Oil (USD per barrel)
WTI Outlook: Crude Presses the Triangle Top Near 105
103.45 +4.40 (+4.44%) week Range 95.25–103.92
Outlook: Bias is higher while 99.00 holds. WTI closed at 103.45, up 4.44% on the week, just under the falling resistance line near 105, after Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure lifted Brent to a 116.72 settlement, its highest since 29 April. Pullbacks into 100–102 are the zone to work from, and a weekly close above 105 would open 110.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 95.25
- Support 1
- 99.00
- Resistance 1
- 105.00
- Resistance 2
- 110.00
Weekly chart structure
- Pattern: a falling line from the 120 high and a rising line from the July low converge near 105, forming a triangle that price is testing from below.
- Averages: 86.16, 80.85 and 73.47 sit well below price and confirm the uptrend.
- Candle: bullish, opened 99.04, high 103.92, low 95.25, closed 4.44% higher with a long lower wick.
- Momentum: RSI 61.22 is above its 54.71 signal line, rising but short of overbought.
Key technical levels
99.00, the week’s open, is first support and 95.25 the week’s low; a weekly close beneath the rising line near 92 would break the triangle. 105 is first resistance on the falling line, then 110 and the 120 high.
Fundamental drivers
Saudi–Houthi escalation
Houthi strikes have reached Saudi infrastructure including Yanbu and the Shaybah field, and Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters. Brent rose about 6% on the week to 116.72 and WTI settled at 103.27, up 2.3%; the Brent premium has widened to roughly $13 after the November WTI expiry.
Iran and policy risk
Reports say the US and Israel are weighing further strikes on Iran after the 3 November midterms, and Iran has warned it would hit Gulf energy infrastructure in return (TheStreet). The US Energy Department authorised an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and the US rig count held at 603.
Crude Oil trade setup
LongMedium conviction- Entry
- 101.50
- Stop loss
- 97.50
- Target 1
- 107.00
- Target 2
- 112.00
Risk $4.00. Reward:risk 1.4 to target 1, 2.6 to target 2.
Rationale: Higher lows, averages far below price and a live Gulf supply premium favour buying pullbacks; the triangle top near 105 is the hurdle.
Invalidation: A daily close below 97.50. A de-escalation headline or a Fed-driven dollar rally would reverse the move.
NATURAL GAS | Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (USD per MMBtu)
Natural Gas Outlook: 15% Weekly Slump Tests the 2.62 Low
2.640 -0.476 (-15.28%) week Range 2.620–3.184
Outlook: Bias is lower while 2.85 caps. The front-month contract fell 15.28% to 2.640 after a week’s low of 2.620 as mild weather forecasts erased the premium. November expires on Wednesday, so the roll to December can distort the chart; rallies into 2.80–2.85 are the zone to work from.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2.520
- Support 1
- 2.620
- Resistance 1
- 2.800
- Resistance 2
- 2.964
Weekly chart structure
- Trend: a falling channel since the January spike; price closed beneath the 2.964 average and well inside the channel.
- Averages: 2.964, 3.282 and 3.384 all sit above price, and none holds beneath it.
- Candle: bearish, opened 3.090, high 3.184, low 2.620, closed 15.28% lower near the bottom of the range.
- Momentum: RSI 42.04 is under its 46.88 signal line and not yet oversold.
Key technical levels
2.620 is the week’s low; a weekly close beneath it opens 2.52, the April 2026 low. 2.80 and the 2.964 average are the first barriers, and a weekly close above 2.964 would end the downside bias.
Fundamental drivers
Weather and storage
Mild near-term and longer-term forecasts drove a four-day sell-off before Thursday’s EIA report (NGI). EIA reported a 77 Bcf injection for the week to 16 October, taking storage to 3,644 Bcf, 1.0% above the five-year average and 4.0% below last year, the tenth straight below-average build (OGJ, NGI).
Expiry and winter risk
November expires on Wednesday 28 October, moving the front month to December. EIA expects 3,850 Bcf by the end of October, which needs about 94 Bcf a week against recent builds of 64–85 Bcf (TradingNews). LNG feedgas holds above 20 Bcf/d and EU storage is only 75%, so a storage shortfall is the main upside risk.
Natural Gas trade setup
ShortLow conviction- Entry
- 2.850
- Stop loss
- 2.970
- Target 1
- 2.620
- Target 2
- 2.520
Risk 0.120. Reward:risk 1.9 to target 1, 2.7 to target 2.
Rationale: A falling channel, three averages overhead and mild weather favour selling rallies; the expiry roll and a thin storage cushion make squeezes possible, so conviction is low.
Invalidation: A daily close above 2.97, or a colder shift in the weather models.
WHEAT | Wheat Cash Contract (US cents per bushel)
Wheat Outlook: Eighth Weekly Loss Breaks the Rising Channel
632.0 -35.9 (-5.38%) week Range 629.5–673.8
Outlook: Bias is lower while 655 caps. Wheat closed at 632.0, down 5.38% on the week, beneath the rising channel floor that carried it from December. Bloomberg reports an eighth straight weekly decline in CBOT futures, the longest run since 1997. Retests of 650–655 are the zone to work from, with 612.9 the first target.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 571.2
- Support 1
- 612.9
- Resistance 1
- 655.0
- Resistance 2
- 671.6
Weekly chart structure
- Trend: a rising channel since December 2025 has broken to the downside; the old floor near 655 is now resistance.
- Averages: 671.6 sits above price, while 612.9 and 571.2 below are the next supports.
- Candle: bearish, opened 667.0, high 673.8, low 629.5, closed 5.38% lower at the bottom of its range.
- Momentum: RSI 45.15 is under its 59.58 signal line and below 50.
Key technical levels
612.9 is first support; a weekly close beneath it opens 571.2. 655, the old channel floor, and the 671.6 average are the barriers, and a close above 671.6 would repair the break.
Fundamental drivers
Black Sea peace talks
Wheat lost its Black Sea risk premium as Russia and Ukraine signalled openness to US-mediated talks, tentatively set for 10 November (Total Farm Marketing, Grain Central). CBOT December wheat settled at 625.00 on Friday after touching a 14-week low during the week.
Supply and demand
Harvests are gaining pace in Australia and Argentina, global output is seen near the second-highest on record (Bendigo Bank), and US export sales run about a third behind last year’s pace. Markets are very oversold, so failed talks or fresh Black Sea strikes could trigger sharp short covering.
Wheat trade setup
ShortMedium conviction- Entry
- 655.0
- Stop loss
- 675.0
- Target 1
- 613.0
- Target 2
- 571.0
Risk 20.0 cents. Reward:risk 2.1 to target 1, 4.2 to target 2.
Rationale: A broken channel, falling momentum and easing Black Sea risk favour selling retests of the old floor; oversold conditions argue for taking profit at the first target.
Invalidation: A daily close above 675. Collapsed peace talks or new strikes on Black Sea ports would revive the premium.
Economic Calendar: 26–30 October 2026
| Date | Event | Market | Impact | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 GMT | US 2-year note auction, $69 billion | Gold, silver | Low | Front-end yield demand test ahead of the Fed |
| 01:30 GMT | China industrial profits (September) | Copper | Medium | Demand read while copper tests its channel floor near 6.43 |
| 20:30 GMT | API weekly crude inventories | WTI crude | Low | Early look at stocks before the EIA data |
| 13:45 GMT | BoC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report | WTI crude | Medium | Canadian dollar and oil-linked risk tone |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA weekly petroleum status report | WTI crude | High | Crude and product stocks with 105.00 resistance in view |
| 18:00 GMT | Fed rate decision, hold at 3.75–4.00% expected; press conference at 18:30 GMT | Gold, silver, copper | High | Guidance on a December hike decides the metals; gold 3,975 in view |
| 18:30 GMT | NYMEX November natural gas futures expire | Natural gas | High | Front month rolls to December; expect distorted charts and wider spreads |
| 12:30 GMT | US advance Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation | Gold, silver, USD | High | Core PCE seen near 3.0–3.1%; a hot print revives December hike pricing |
| 12:30 GMT | USDA weekly export sales | Wheat | Medium | Sales running about a third behind last year’s pace |
| 13:15 GMT | ECB rate decision; press conference at 13:45 GMT | Copper, gold | Medium | Euro-area growth read for industrial metals |
| 14:30 GMT | EIA natural gas storage report | Natural gas | High | Builds against a 94 Bcf weekly pace needed for the 3,850 Bcf target |
| 03:00 GMT | BoJ rate decision (approximate time), hold expected | Gold, silver | Medium | Yen reaction feeds dollar and bullion flows |
| 17:00 GMT | Baker Hughes US rig count | WTI crude | Low | Total count held at 603 last week |
All times are GMT. The US moves off daylight saving time on 1 November, so 08:30 ET releases fall at 12:30 GMT this week.
Conclusion
The Fed and Thursday’s inflation data set the theme for metals, while Gulf headlines drive crude and weather drives natural gas. A hawkish hold would test gold at 3,975 and silver at 52.99, while a dovish one could trigger oversold rebounds toward 4,075 and 56.94.
On conviction, WTI long, wheat short, gold short and silver short rank at medium, with copper long and natural gas short at low because of rising LME stocks and the November expiry roll respectively.
We treat every level as conditional, let the event windows pass before adding exposure and size positions so that a stop-out is affordable. Spreads can widen sharply around the Fed announcement and the natural gas expiry.
| Instrument | Bias | Key level | Targets | Invalidation | Principal risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Sell near 4,075 | 4,150 | 3,975 / 3,857 | Above 4,160 | Dovish Fed, oil drop |
| Silver | Sell near 56.50 | 56.94 | 53.00 / 50.00 | Above 58.70 | Short covering from oversold |
| Copper | Buy near 6.450 | 6.434 | 6.708 / 7.000 | Below 6.290 | LME stock build, hawkish Fed |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | Buy near 101.50 | 99.00 | 107.00 / 112.00 | Below 97.50 | Gulf de-escalation |
| Natural Gas | Sell near 2.850 | 2.800 | 2.620 / 2.520 | Above 2.97 | Storage shortfall, expiry squeeze |
| Wheat | Sell near 655.0 | 655.0 | 613.0 / 571.0 | Above 675.0 | Failed Black Sea talks |
Trade gold, silver, crude oil and other commodities with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which events matter most for commodities this week?
The Fed decision on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT and the US GDP and PCE data on Thursday at 12:30 GMT set the tone for gold, silver and copper. For energy, the EIA reports on Wednesday and Thursday and the November natural gas expiry on Wednesday carry most of the weight.
Why did gold fall below $4,000?
Higher oil revived inflation fears and kept a December Fed hike in play, which lifted real yields and outweighed safe-haven demand. Gold had its worst week in more than four months and closed near 3,995.
Will the Fed change rates on 28 October?
Markets expect no change, with a hold priced at about 90%. The open question is whether the statement signals a December hike, and whether any members dissent in favour of moving now.
Why did natural gas drop 15% in a week?
Unseasonably mild weather forecasts cut heating demand expectations while production stayed high. Storage is only 1.0% above the five-year average, so a colder shift could reverse the move quickly, and the November expiry on Wednesday adds volatility.
Why is wheat falling for an eighth week?
Hopes for US-mediated Russia–Ukraine talks removed the Black Sea risk premium, while harvests in Australia and Argentina and weak US export sales add supply. Failed talks would be the main upside risk.
How can traders manage risk in a central-bank and expiry week?
Reduce position size before the Fed, avoid new entries in the minutes around the decision and allow for wider spreads. Use defined stops rather than adding exposure after an initial spike.
