Gold Fights to Hold $4,000 as Fed Week Opens: Silver Hugs Its Year Low and WTI Retreats From Six-Month Highs | Technical analysis – Commodity Report | 26 Oct 2026
Commodities Today | Monday 26 October 2026
Gold Fights to Hold $4,000 as Fed Week Opens: Silver Hugs Its Year Low and WTI Retreats From Six-Month Highs
Market Overview
Commodities opened Fed week on a calmer footing as oil gave back part of last week’s surge. At about 08:10 GMT gold was $4,016.89 (+0.54%), silver $54.22 (+0.73%) and WTI crude $101.12 (−2.25%), while copper (HG Dec) was at 6.4818 (−0.28%), natural gas (Dec) at 2.991 (−1.93%) with the expiring November contract near 2.530, and US wheat (Dec) at 621.63 cents (−0.54%). Brent is near $114–115 after Trump said there would be no strike on Iran today and Qatari mediators reached Tehran, but Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia keep supply fears alive. The dollar index is near 101.70, the US 10-year yield is just under 5%, and markets give about 90.6% odds of a Fed hold on Wednesday and about 79% odds of a December hike. We read the session as a relief bounce in metals inside broader downtrends, with the Fed at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, Thursday’s PCE and the 3 November US midterms the next big tests.
Key highlights
- Gold: Price is 4,016.89 under three falling averages and 3,975 is the three-month low; 4,131 caps rallies into the Fed.
- Silver: Price is 54.22 at the channel floor with RSI 33.11; the 53.03 year low is the line that matters.
- Copper: The HG Dec 26 contract is 6.4818 while the chart sits at 6.5917 retesting the broken channel floor under 6.66.
- Natural gas: Front-month gas is 2.530 with RSI 29.04 after a 6% Friday drop; mild weather and a record hedge-fund short set up squeeze risk.
- Crude oil: WTI is 101.12 under the triangle roof near 103–104 and above the 94.59 average; Iran headlines decide the break.
- Wheat: Price is 621.63 cents (Dec 26) after eight weekly losses; 620 is the floor and 655 the first cap.
What’s Moving Commodities Today
Gold bounces from a three-month low as softer oil eases Fed hike fears
Spot gold rose about 0.4% to roughly $4,010 by 05:44 GMT after touching its lowest since mid-July on Friday, and US December futures traded near $4,024. Bullion fell about 4% last week, its steepest drop since June, and the Fed meets on 27–28 October with about a 90.6% chance of a hold and about 79% odds of a December hike. TD Securities notes physical demand from ETFs and central banks is still strong but systematic selling is a headwind near $4,000.
Silver holds near $54 after a 5.4% weekly slide and a fresh year low at $53.03
Silver gained about 0.5–0.7% in Asia to around $54.2 after Friday’s year-to-date low, but elevated oil prices keep the Fed leaning hawkish and the daily RSI is near 31. Platinum is near $1,548 and palladium near $1,046, so the whole precious complex is trading defensively.
WTI slips to $101 as Trump rules out an immediate Iran strike and Qatar mediates
WTI fell more than 2% to about $101 after a gain of over 4% on Friday, and Brent eased from a $116.72 close to about $114–115. Trump said “there will not be a strike today” while Qatari mediators visited Tehran, but Yemen’s Houthis vowed to keep attacking King Khalid airport in Riyadh and reports say the US and Israel drafted strike plans for after the 3 November midterms. Washington has also eased Russian fuel sanctions to tackle high diesel prices.
Copper eases as LME stocks rise to their highest since July and energy costs weigh
Three-month LME copper was down 0.56% at $14,242.50 a tonne by 03:00 GMT, and Shanghai’s most-traded contract rose 0.55% to 108,720 yuan. Talk of a US tariff on refined copper has pulled metal into America and drove LME copper to a record $14,875 on 11 September, but fresh LME deposits and worries about high energy prices are now weighing. The Yangshan premium at $168 a tonne, the highest since 2014, shows Chinese import appetite is still firm.
US natural gas drops to a two-month low on mild weather and a record fund short
November futures fell 15.6 cents, or 6%, to settle at $2.64 on Friday, the lowest close since 6 August, and kept sliding in Asia on Monday. Forecasts are for milder-than-normal weather through 7 November, storage is about 0.7% above normal, and positioning data show hedge funds hold a record short, which makes a sharp squeeze possible. The November contract expires on 28 October, so December (about $2.99) becomes the front month this week.
Wheat posts an eighth straight weekly loss as Black Sea peace hopes and big crops weigh
Chicago December wheat closed near $6.25 on Friday, down about 35.5 cents on the week, and trades near $6.22 on Monday. Hopes of Black Sea peace talks and large southern hemisphere crops keep Russian wheat competitive near $199 a tonne, while funds sold another 84,620 contracts last week and cut their net long to 146,257 from 426,842 in mid-September. Rumors of Chinese interest in US soft red winter wheat are unconfirmed.
Key Drivers Ahead
Eight events that set direction for gold, silver, copper, natural gas, crude oil and wheat. All times are GMT.
- Iran talks / Hormuz
- Ongoing
- Any time
- Trump says no strike today; Qatari mediation and Houthi attacks swing oil, gold and the dollar
- Black Sea peace talks
- Ongoing
- Any time
- A deal would extend the wheat slide; a breakdown would spark a bounce
- US refined-copper tariff
- Pending
- Any time
- Tariff headlines move the COMEX-LME spread and US stockpiling
- EIA crude inventories
- Weekly
- Wed 28 Oct, about 14:30 GMT
- Stock draws or builds feed the WTI triangle break
- FOMC decision
- 28 Oct
- Hold about 90.6% priced; December hike odds near 79% drive gold and silver
- US Q3 GDP and PCE
- Thu
- PCE seen near 3.7% a year; a hot print opens $3,890 in gold
- EIA natural gas storage
- Weekly
- Thu 29 Oct, about 14:30 GMT
- Build for the week to 23 October; mild weather keeps surplus growing
- US midterm elections
- 3 Nov
- Post-election Iran strike plans and fiscal path are the next oil and dollar risk
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order gold, silver, copper, natural gas, crude oil and wheat, valid for today’s session. A 1-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Short | 4,100 | 4,165 | 3,975 | 3,890 | 1.9 / 3.2 | Medium |
| Silver | Long | 53.20 | 52.20 | 56.00 | 57.80 | 2.8 / 4.6 | Low |
| Copper | Short | 6.66 | 6.76 | 6.45 | 6.30 | 2.1 / 3.6 | Medium |
| Natural Gas | Short | 2.72 | 2.86 | 2.50 | 2.35 | 1.6 / 2.6 | Low |
| Crude Oil | Short | 103.00 | 105.40 | 98.00 | 94.60 | 2.1 / 3.5 | Low |
| Wheat | Short | 658 | 676 | 625 | 600 | 1.8 / 3.2 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Levels are read from the daily charts captured at 08:06–08:09 GMT on 26 October: gold, silver and WTI from TVC, copper from Capital.com, natural gas from the NYMEX front month (November) and wheat from FOREX.com, so copper, gas and wheat levels sit above the Dec 26 quotes shown in each section. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
The Fed at 18:00 GMT on 28 October, US-Iran headlines and Thursday’s PCE are the swing factors, with the 3 November midterms behind them.
Hawkish Fed and a Hormuz escalation: oil spikes, yields and the dollar rise, and metals sell off
A hawkish message confirming a December hike, with oil pushing back above its highs, would drag gold and silver to their lower supports while lifting crude.
- Gold3,975, then 3,890
- Silver53.03, then 50.00
- Copper6.54, then 6.30
- Natural gas2.50, then 2.35
- Crude oil103.00, then 107.00
- Wheat620, then 595
A dovish hold and an Iran deal: oil falls, yields ease and metals rally toward resistance
A cautious Fed and a credible US-Iran agreement would pull oil and yields lower and let metals recover toward their falling averages.
- Gold4,075, then 4,131
- Silver57.77, then 58.53
- Copper6.66, then 6.80
- Natural gas2.70, then 2.95
- Crude oil98.00, then 94.60
- Wheat655, then 671
Gold (XAU/USD) | TVC feed
Gold Analysis: Price Bounces From a Three-Month Low but Stays Under Three Falling Averages Inside a Falling Channel
4,016.89 +21.51 (+0.54%) at about 08:06 GMT Day range 3,977.93–4,019.35
Outlook: Bias is lower while 4,131 caps rallies. Spot gold edged up to about $4,010 after its steepest weekly drop since June because softer oil eased inflation fears, but the Fed on Wednesday and Thursday’s PCE keep the bounce fragile.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 3,890
- Support 1
- 3,975
- Resistance 1
- 4,075
- Resistance 2
- 4,131
- Price (4,016.89) is under the 4,131.10, 4,224.97 and 4,294.10 averages; the short average sits close to the channel roof, so 4,075–4,131 is the supply zone for any bounce.
- RSI 35.69 is under its signal line at 40.75, a weak reading that is close to oversold; a close under 3,975 opens 3,890 and the channel floor near 3,840, while a close over 4,131 would challenge the roof.
Setup: Short at 4,100, stop 4,165, targets 3,975 and 3,890. Reward:risk 1.9 / 3.2, medium conviction. A bounce into the 4,131 short average is the entry; a Fed hold with a December hike still priced keeps pressure on bullion, and a daily close over 4,165 cancels the idea.
Silver (XAG/USD) | TVC feed
Silver Analysis: Price Sits on the Floor of a Falling Channel Just Above the 2026 Low Near 53.03
54.22 +0.40 (+0.73%) at about 08:06 GMT Day range 53.62–54.41
Outlook: Bias is lower while 57.77 caps rallies, but the move is stretched. Silver lost about 5.4% last week and printed a year-to-date low of $53.03 on Friday as oil-driven Fed hike bets weigh on non-yielding metals.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 50.00
- Support 1
- 53.03
- Resistance 1
- 57.77
- Resistance 2
- 58.53
- Price (54.22) is far under the 58.53, 62.23 and 62.85 averages; the 17 July low at 57.77 and the 58.53 short average form the first big resistance.
- RSI 33.11 is under its signal line at 37.49 and near oversold; a close under the 53.03 low opens 50.00, while a bounce above 57.77 would start to repair the chart.
Setup: Long at 53.20, stop 52.20, targets 56.00 and 57.80. Reward:risk 2.8 / 4.6, low conviction. This is a counter-trend bounce from the channel floor and the year low; a daily close under 52.20 cancels it, and a hawkish Fed would make a run to 50.00 likely.
Copper (HG) | Capital.com chart
Copper Analysis: Price Drops Out of a Rising Channel and Retests Its Underside Under Two Short Averages Near 6.66
6.4818 −0.0182 (−0.28%) HG Dec 26 contract, Monday session Day range 6.4688–6.5283 | Capital.com chart 6.5917 at 08:09 GMT
Outlook: Bias is lower while 6.66 caps rallies. London copper slipped as LME stocks hit their highest since July and high energy prices dent demand hopes, though a record Yangshan premium and tariff talk in the US limit the downside.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 6.30
- Support 1
- 6.54
- Resistance 1
- 6.66
- Resistance 2
- 6.80
- Price (6.5917 on the chart) is above the 6.5419 average but under the 6.6558 and 6.6650 short averages, which also sit near the broken channel floor.
- RSI 46.68 is under its signal line at 48.62, a neutral reading; a close under 6.54 opens the recent low near 6.43 and then 6.30, while a close over 6.665 puts the channel back in play toward 6.80.
Setup: Short at 6.66, stop 6.76, targets 6.45 and 6.30. Reward:risk 2.1 / 3.6, medium conviction. Levels use the Capital.com chart basis, which prints above the HG Dec 26 quote; a daily close over 6.76 cancels the idea.
Natural Gas (NG) | NYMEX front-month chart
Natural Gas Analysis: Price Breaks Down Through a Rising Channel and Plunges to a Two-Month Low With RSI Near 29
2.991 −0.059 (−1.93%) Dec 26 contract, Monday session Day range 2.962–3.006 | Nov front-month chart 2.530 (−4.17%), range 2.500–2.548
Outlook: Bias is lower while 2.70 caps rallies, but the market is oversold. Front-month gas fell about 6% on Friday to $2.64 on milder weather through 7 November, and hedge funds hold a record short, so a squeeze is possible around the November expiry on 28 October.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2.35
- Support 1
- 2.50
- Resistance 1
- 2.70
- Resistance 2
- 2.95
- Price (2.530 on the front-month chart) is far under the 2.952, 2.972 and 3.028 averages and under the broken channel floor; 2.70 and then 2.95 are the supply levels.
- RSI 29.04 is deeply oversold and well under its signal line at 50.29; a close under 2.50 opens 2.35, while a short-covering bounce can reach 2.70 quickly because positioning is stretched.
Setup: Short at 2.72, stop 2.86, targets 2.50 and 2.35. Reward:risk 1.6 / 2.6, low conviction. Sell a bounce rather than the low; levels are on the front-month (Nov) chart basis, so recheck them after the roll to December, and a daily close over 2.86 cancels the idea.
Crude Oil (WTI) | TVC feed
WTI Crude Oil Analysis: Price Pulls Back From the Roof of a Narrowing Triangle Above Three Rising Averages
101.12 −2.33 (−2.25%) at about 08:05 GMT Day range 100.69–102.63
Outlook: Bias is neutral to lower while 103.00 caps and 98.00 holds, with upside-skewed risk. WTI fell more than 2% after Trump said there would be no strike today and Qatari mediators reached Tehran, but Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and post-midterm strike talk keep the premium alive.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 94.60
- Support 1
- 98.00
- Resistance 1
- 103.00
- Resistance 2
- 107.00
- Price (101.12) is above the 94.59, 92.80 and 86.18 averages and just under the triangle roof near 103–104; the September high near 107 is the next cap above it.
- RSI 61.95 is above its signal line at 57.36, a firm reading that is not overbought; a close over 104 breaks the roof toward 107, while a close under 98 opens the 94.60 average and the rising floor near 92.80.
Setup: Short at 103.00, stop 105.40, targets 98.00 and 94.60. Reward:risk 2.1 / 3.5, low conviction. A rejection at the triangle roof is the entry; with the US-Iran story unresolved and midterm strike risk, a close over 105.40 cancels the idea.
Wheat (US, CBOT) | FOREX.com chart
Wheat Analysis: Price Presses the Floor of a Falling Channel Under Three Falling Averages With RSI Near 28
621.63 ¢/bu −3.38 (−0.54%) US Wheat Dec 26 contract, Monday session Day range 620.75–625.90 | FOREX.com chart 634.8 at 08:08 GMT
Outlook: Bias is lower while 655 caps rallies, with a bounce risk. Wheat has posted eight straight weekly losses on Black Sea peace hopes, large southern hemisphere crops and fund liquidation, and rumors of Chinese buying are unconfirmed.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 595
- Support 1
- 620
- Resistance 1
- 655
- Resistance 2
- 671
- Price (634.8 on the chart) is under the 670.9, 674.5 and 706.6 averages; 655 is the first rebound hurdle and the two longer averages near 671–675 are the cap above it.
- RSI 27.76 is oversold and under its signal line at 36.23; a close under 620 opens 595 and the July low area, while an oversold bounce is likely to stall under 671.
Setup: Short at 658, stop 676, targets 625 and 600. Reward:risk 1.8 / 3.2, medium conviction. Sell a bounce into the 655–671 zone; levels use the FOREX.com chart basis, which prints above the Dec 26 quote, and a daily close over 676 cancels the idea.
Conclusion
Gold, copper, natural gas and wheat all trade under falling averages or broken channels, so we prefer selling bounces into 4,100, 6.66, 2.72 and 658, while crude oil is a lower-conviction fade of the 103.00 triangle roof. Silver is the one counter-trend idea, a low-conviction long from the 53.20 channel floor. The nearest risks are US-Iran and Black Sea headlines at any time, EIA crude stocks on Wednesday, the Fed at 18:00 GMT on 28 October, US GDP and PCE at 12:30 GMT and EIA gas storage on Thursday, and the 3 November midterms. A daily close over 4,131 in gold or over 104 in WTI would change the picture.
Trade Gold, Silver, Copper, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Wheat with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is gold struggling near $4,000 before the Fed?
Higher oil keeps inflation and Fed hike bets alive, with about 79% odds of a December hike, and that raises the cost of holding non-yielding gold. Gold fell about 4% last week to a three-month low of 3,975; 3,890 is the next support and 4,131 the first cap.
Where is the key level for WTI crude oil?
The triangle roof near 103–104 is the key cap, with the September high near 107 above it. Support is 98.00, then the 94.59 average and the rising floor near 92.80. Iran talks, Houthi attacks and strike plans after the 3 November midterms can break either side.
Why do the natural gas, copper and wheat prices differ from the charts?
The charts use the NYMEX front month (November) for gas, a Capital.com CFD for copper and a FOREX.com CFD for wheat, while the headline quotes are the December 2026 contracts. Gas is the widest gap: November is near 2.53 and December near 2.99, and November expires on 28 October.
Is natural gas oversold, and could it bounce?
RSI is 29.04 and hedge funds hold a record short, so a squeeze toward 2.70 is possible. But mild weather through 7 November and storage above normal keep the trend lower; a close under 2.50 opens 2.35.
