Daily Forex Analysis| March 26, 2026 | EUR/USD · GBP/USD · AUD/USD · USD/CAD | Capital Street FX
Iran Rejects Peace Proposal — Dollar Firms, Risk FX Under Pressure
Tehran’s dismissal of the US 15-point ceasefire plan on March 25 has reignited safe-haven demand for the dollar overnight. With the DXY holding near 99.60, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD all face headwinds into Thursday’s session as Initial Jobless Claims data (13:30 UTC) becomes the next inflection point.
Macro Context & Market Drivers
The fundamental story shaping every major currency pair in today’s session is one you’ve heard before — but it just escalated. Iran’s categorical dismissal of Washington’s ceasefire proposal, combined with Tehran’s own 5-point counter-plan demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, has ensured that the geopolitical premium in the dollar is not going away any time soon. Markets briefly rallied on March 25 when news of the US peace overture broke, but that optimism evaporated overnight as Iranian officials made clear: there is no deal imminent.
What this means practically for forex traders: the Fed remains paralyzed by an energy-driven inflation shock. TD Securities strategists note the Fed now faces a textbook dilemma — an oil shock that both stokes inflation and threatens growth. The result? Zero rate cuts priced for 2026, Treasury yields firm, DXY recovering from its February low of ~96 but capped below the mid-March peak near 101. The DXY currently holds around 99.60, trading with a slight downside bias in Asian hours as peace-talk uncertainty clouds sentiment.
Economic Calendar — High Impact Events
All times UTC. Only high & medium-impact events relevant to USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, JPY, CNY shown.
| Impact | Time (UTC) | Currency | Event | Previous | Forecast | FX Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | JPY | BoJ Meeting Minutes | — | — | Signals on BoJ normalisation pace — JPY cross volatility | |
| HOT | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 223K | ~216K | Primary driver today. Beat = USD strength; Miss = USD selloff across majors |
| 13:30 | USD | GDP (QoQ) Q4 Final | 2.3% | 2.3% | Confirmation print — limited surprise expected; confirms resilient US economy narrative | |
| 13:30 | USD | Import/Export Price Index Feb | — | — | Energy-driven inflation read — watch for oil shock pass-through into import prices | |
| 14:30 | USD | EIA Natural Gas Storage | — | — | Energy inventory — elevated volatility context; implications for CAD and energy-linked FX | |
| All Day | CNY | China Industrial Profits (YTD) | — | — | China demand signal — directly influences AUD/USD via commodity trade flows | |
| Speeches | EUR | ECB President Lagarde (Speech) | — | — | Watch for ECB reaction to energy shock — dovish signals = EUR weakness | |
| Friday 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales m/m (Mar 27) | +0.4% | — | Key for GBP recovery — beat could trigger a relief rally toward 1.3400 resistance | |
| Friday 14:00 | USD | UoM Consumer Sentiment Revised | — | — | Consumer health signal — inflation expectations sub-component moves FX |
Technical Analysis — 4 Major Pairs
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
| Level | Price | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 1.000 | 1.2085 | Swing High — Jan 2026 top |
| 0.786 | 1.1940 | Strong resistance |
| 0.618 | 1.1825 | Key resistance cluster |
| 0.500 | 1.1745 | Mid-range pivot |
| 0.382 | 1.1664 | Resistance — recent rejection zone |
| 0.236 | 1.1634 | ⬅ PRICE HERE — critical level |
| 0.000 | 1.1405 | Swing Low — base of move |
| 1.618 | 0.6311 | Extension (not in play) |
Technical Indicators & Trend
| Daily Trend | Bearish — Lower Highs & Lower Lows |
| Structure | Descending channel from Jan 2026 high |
| MA Signal (Daily) | Strong Sell — 11 of 12 MAs below |
| Fib Pivot | 1.1569 (Fibonacci pivot) |
| Key Support S1 | 1.1405 (0.000 Fib / Swing Low) |
| Key Support S2 | 1.1300 |
| Key Resistance R1 | 1.1664 (0.382 Fib) |
| Key Resistance R2 | 1.1745 (0.500 Fib) |
| Daily RSI (est.) | ~42 — Approaching oversold |
Active Candlestick Patterns (Daily)
Bearish Engulfing at 0.382 Fib Descending Channel Continuation Lower High Formation (Mar 18–24) Inside Bar — Consolidation Below 1.16EUR/USD has been on a steady downward grind since its January peak at 1.2085, and today’s price action around 1.1554 tells a familiar story: the pair is testing the critical 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, a level that has proven magnetic over the past week. Europe’s acute energy vulnerability — exacerbated by the Iran conflict driving Brent above $98 — continues to weigh structurally on the euro. The 1.16 handle, which briefly acted as resistance following the mid-March decline, is now overhead resistance once more. A sustained break below 1.1534 (the Asian session low) would open the door to a test of the swing low at 1.1405.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
| Level | Price | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 1.000 | 1.3870 | Swing High — Jan/Feb peak |
| 0.786 | 1.3729 | Previous resistance — now broken |
| 0.618 | 1.3617 | Resistance |
| 0.500 | 1.3539 | Mid-range |
| 0.382 | 1.3461 | ⬅ PRICE APPROACHING |
| 0.236 | 1.3346 | Current support zone — being tested |
| 0.000 | 1.3208 | Swing Low — downside target |
Technical Indicators & Trend
| Daily Trend | Bearish — Descending Channel |
| Structure | Lower Highs & Lower Lows from 1.3870 |
| MA Signal | Sell — Price below 50D & 200D MA |
| Key Support S1 | 1.3346 (0.236 Fib — now tested) |
| Key Support S2 | 1.3208 (0.000 Fib base) |
| Key Resistance R1 | 1.3461 (0.382 Fib) |
| Key Resistance R2 | 1.3539 (0.500 Fib) |
| Demand Zone | 1.3340 – 1.3360 (current range) |
| Daily RSI (est.) | ~38 — Approaching oversold |
Active Candlestick Patterns (Daily)
Shooting Star at 0.382 Fib Rejection Descending Channel — Confirmed Doji Indecision — 1.3340 Support Hammer Signal at Demand Zone (Watch)Sterling is holding a narrow range overnight, hovering around 1.3352 after two consecutive days of losses. The pair has now fully retraced back from its February highs above 1.3870, and is pressing against the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (1.3346). This zone has provided a floor in recent sessions, but the broader technical structure — a clear descending channel with lower highs since February — argues against a sustained recovery unless Friday’s UK Retail Sales data delivers a significant upside surprise. The key demand zone sits between 1.3340 and 1.3360, and a clean break below 1.3340 would target the 0.000 Fib base at 1.3208. Bulls need to reclaim 1.3461 (the 0.382 Fib) on a daily close to shift the short-term narrative.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
| Level | Price | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 0.236 | 0.7057 | Resistance — recent high zone |
| 0.382 | 0.6978 | ⬅ KEY LEVEL — broken below |
| 0.500 | 0.6914 | Support — approaching (current) |
| 0.618 | 0.6851 | Next major support |
| 0.786 | 0.6760 | Deep retracement support |
| 1.000 | 0.6447 | Swing Low base |
| 1.618 | 0.6311 | Extension (not in play) |
Technical Indicators & Trend
| Daily Trend | Bearish Reversal — Off March highs |
| Prior Trend | 6-Week winning streak ended (0.7057) |
| MA Signal | Price broken below 20D MA |
| Key Support S1 | 0.6914 (0.500 Fib) |
| Key Support S2 | 0.6851 (0.618 Fib) |
| Key Resistance R1 | 0.6978 (0.382 Fib — broken level) |
| Key Resistance R2 | 0.7057 (0.236 Fib / March high) |
| Fundamental Risk | China demand uncertainty + risk-off |
| Daily RSI (est.) | ~36 — Oversold territory approaching |
Active Candlestick Patterns (Daily)
Bearish Engulfing at 0.382 Fib (0.6978) Break of Rising Trendline Evening Star Pattern (Mar 12–14) Testing 0.500 Fib — Indecision CandlesAUD/USD remains the most vulnerable of the four major pairs in the current environment — and the chart is reflecting that reality. After a remarkable six-week winning streak that took the pair from 0.6447 to a high of 0.7057 (the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement), the pair has decisively reversed. Price has now broken below the 0.382 Fibonacci level (0.6978) — a bearish signal — and is probing toward the 0.500 Fib at 0.6914. The dual headwinds of global risk aversion (Iran conflict) and China demand uncertainty (AUD’s primary commodity driver) create a challenging environment for bulls. A daily close below 0.6914 would expose the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 0.6851 as the next significant support.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
| Level | Price | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 1.000 | 1.3930 | Swing High / Resistance target |
| 0.786 | 1.3834 | ⬅ PRICE HERE — testing breakout |
| 0.618 | 1.3752 | Support below |
| 0.500 | 1.3706 | Mid-support |
| 0.382 | 1.3653 | Key support cluster |
| 0.236 | 1.3588 | Support zone |
| 0.000 | 1.3482 | Swing Low — multi-month support |
Technical Indicators & Trend
| Daily Trend | Bullish — ABC Corrective Wave C Active |
| Elliott Wave | C-wave of ABC correction targeting 1.3900+ |
| MA Signal | Price reclaimed 20D & 50D MA |
| Key Support S1 | 1.3752 (0.618 Fib) |
| Key Support S2 | 1.3706 (0.500 Fib) |
| Key Resistance R1 | 1.3834 (0.786 Fib — current test) |
| Key Resistance R2 | 1.3930 (1.000 Fib / wave C target) |
| Elliott Target | 1.3900 (C-wave completion zone) |
| Daily RSI (est.) | ~60 — Bullish momentum building |
Active Candlestick Patterns (Daily)
Bullish Engulfing — Wave C Breakout Resistance Break at 0.618 Fib (1.3725) Higher Lows Formation (Feb – Mar) Testing 0.786 Fib Resistance (1.3834)USD/CAD is the standout pair today — and it’s the only one of the four majors showing genuine bullish momentum. After breaking above the resistance zone at 1.3725 (the 0.618 Fibonacci level), the pair has accelerated into an active C-wave as per Elliott Wave analysis, with the price now challenging the 0.786 Fibonacci level at 1.3834. A confirmed daily close above 1.3834 would open the path to the 1.000 Fibonacci retracement zone at 1.3930 — identified as the C-wave completion target. The pair’s strength is a function of dual tailwinds: safe-haven USD demand from the Iran conflict, and elevated oil prices which historically benefit the CAD but are currently being overshadowed by the broader risk-off USD bid. On any pullback, the 0.618 Fib at 1.3752 now acts as structural support.
Pairs At-A-Glance — Summary Matrix
| Pair | Price | Bias | Key Fib Level | Support | Resistance | Pattern | Primary Trade | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1554 | Bearish | 0.236 @ 1.1634 | 1.1405 | 1.1664 | Descending Channel | Sell 1.1590–1.1620 | 1.1665 | 1.1405 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3352 | Bearish | 0.236 @ 1.3346 | 1.3208 | 1.3461 | Descending Channel | Sell 1.3390–1.3420 | 1.3465 | 1.3208 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6940 | Risk-Off | 0.382 @ 0.6978 | 0.6851 | 0.6978 | Evening Star / Breakdown | Sell 0.6960–0.6978 | 0.7010 | 0.6851 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3830 | Bullish | 0.786 @ 1.3834 | 1.3752 | 1.3930 | Bullish Engulfing / Wave C | Buy 1.3790–1.3810 | 1.3748 | 1.3930 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Conclusion: Trade the Levels, Respect the Geopolitical Wild Card
Today’s forex session is shaped by a familiar but intensifying dynamic: dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty, and a Fed that has no room to pivot. Iran’s rejection of Washington’s ceasefire proposal is the headline, but experienced traders know the real game is being played at Fibonacci levels across all four major pairs — and right now, those levels are offering some of the cleaner setups we’ve seen in weeks.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD are testing or approaching critical Fibonacci support levels where counter-trend bounces are possible — but the structural bias firmly favours continuation of the downtrend unless peace talks materially advance. AUD/USD has broken a key Fib level (the 0.382 at 0.6978) and is approaching the 0.500 Fib at 0.6914 — a level that will define whether the correction extends toward 0.6851 or stabilises. USD/CAD is the brightest opportunity in the session: a textbook Elliott Wave C-wave is in progress, price is above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, and the target zone at 1.3900–1.3930 is clearly defined.
The primary risk to all setups today is the 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims print. A significant miss would create a sharp counter-trend move across USD pairs, and traders should be prepared for this scenario with clear stop levels in place. Position light, trade the levels, and keep one eye permanently on the geopolitical feed — because in a market where a single presidential Truth Social post can move the dollar 80 pips, the best technical analysis in the world is only half the picture.
— Capital Street FX Professional Research Division | March 26, 2026 | Report ID: CSFX-20260326-DAILY-FX
