Dollar Surges to a 19-Month High, Yen Is Pinned at the 160 Line in the Sand and Aussie Sinks to an Eight-Month Low | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 12 Nov 2026
LIVE Forex | Thursday 12 November 2026
Dollar Surges to a 19-Month High, Yen Is Pinned at the 160 Line in the Sand and Aussie Sinks to an Eight-Month Low
Market Overview
The dollar is the only story: the index is at a 19-month high near 103.0 after a 0.7% surge yesterday, and every major is being forced to react before Tokyo, London and the Fed speakers get a vote. Hot October CPI (+0.4% headline, +0.3% core) and Waller’s call to consider a 50 basis point hike have pushed a 25 basis point move at the 8–9 December meeting to about 87%, with a half-point at 12.7% and January now a coin-flip. The 06:10 GMT update, using prices from the 05:37 GMT charts, shows USD/JPY at 159.678 (−0.06%), AUD/USD at 0.68340 (−0.20%, an eight-month low), EUR/USD at 1.10812 (−0.07%), GBP/USD at 1.32613 (−0.09%, a three-week low), USD/CAD at 1.42580 (+0.04%) and USD/CHF at 0.83253 (−0.07%).
USD/JPY is 32 pips from the line where Japan has stepped in before, and the last two times it traded above 160 it lost more than five yen within days. UK GDP at 07:00 GMT is the first hard test, then the London open at 08:00, US jobless claims at 13:30, Daly at 18:10 and Schmid at 18:30 GMT, with Williams at 23:30. RSI readings of 61.83, 67.13 and 60.10 in USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF show a dollar-bid market, while 34.19 in AUD/USD, 36.81 in EUR/USD and 42.47 in GBP/USD show currencies under siege and close to oversold. Desk plan: sell bounces in AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD, buy dips in USD/CAD and USD/CHF, and fade 160 in USD/JPY with a tight stop. London and New York have not opened and UK GDP has not printed yet.
Key highlights
- USD/JPY: Price 159.678 is above the 158.97 average and under 160.00; 160.00 caps and 158.97 holds.
- AUD/USD: Price 0.68340 is under all three averages with RSI 34.19; 0.6870 caps and 0.6800 supports.
- EUR/USD: Price 1.10812 is in the lower channel under the 1.1182 average; 1.1100 caps and 1.1040 supports.
- GBP/USD: Price 1.32613 has broken the rising trendline; 1.3300 caps and 1.3250 supports into UK GDP.
- USD/CAD: Price 1.42580 is above the triangle with RSI 67.13; 1.4299 caps and 1.4190 holds.
- USD/CHF: Price 0.83253 is above all three averages; 0.8350 caps and 0.8290 holds.
What’s Moving Forex Today
The dollar index hits a 19-month high near 103.0 as Fed hike bets build after hot US inflation
The index was up about 0.15% at 103.02 at 03:20 GMT, its highest since April 2025, after rising roughly 0.7% yesterday. October CPI printed +0.4% headline and +0.3% core against 0.3% and 0.2% expected, the 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 18 basis points to near 4.74% and the 10-year touched 5%. Goldman Sachs now expects a hike in December and another early next year.
Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, CNBC, Deccan Herald, 12 Nov 2026
Fed speakers open the door to a 50 basis point December hike, with Williams on tonight
Governor Waller said a half-point move should be considered if core CPI ran at 0.3%, which it did, and Dallas Fed’s Logan backs two more increases. Futures price a 25 basis point hike at the 8–9 December meeting near 87% and a half-point near 12.7%, while January hike odds have climbed above 50%. Daly speaks at 18:10 GMT, Schmid at 18:30 and Williams at 23:30.
Source: Axios, CNBC, ARC Research, Reuters, investing.com, 12 Nov 2026
USD/JPY presses 160 as Tokyo warns on volatility and the BOJ’s Asada pushes back on quick hikes
The pair touched 159.94 early today, its strongest in over two months. Vice Finance Minister Mimura said recent moves were excessively rapid and reminded markets of the late-July to early-August intervention, which included a joint action with the US. Asada, who dissented from September’s hike, warned that premature tightening could hurt growth, while Japan’s October producer prices rose 7.1% on the year.
Source: Reuters via Investing.com and Business Recorder, investingLive, 12 Nov 2026
EUR/USD drops under 1.1100 as ECB hike pricing fails to offset the dollar rally
Money markets price about a 90% chance of a quarter-point ECB hike on 17 December, with euro-area inflation near 4.0%. Lane said it would be prudent to hike if data do not shift and Bundesbank chief Nagel called a December move rather obvious, but Rabobank warns the ECB may be reluctant to go beyond that and French fiscal risks linger.
Source: FXStreet, Reuters, Euronews, 12 Nov 2026
Sterling steadies near 1.3260 ahead of UK GDP at 07:00 GMT as the BoE tightening bias holds
The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% on 5 November and Lombardelli flagged that a low-hire, low-fire labour market could make wage pressure harder to ease. Q3 GDP is forecast at +0.7% on the quarter against 0.5% before, and September GDP at 0.0% against 0.1%, alongside industrial production and the trade balance.
Source: FXStreet, Trading Economics, Investing.com calendar, 12 Nov 2026
AUD/USD sinks to an eight-month low as sentiment falls to a four-year low
Westpac consumer sentiment fell 2.7% to 78.2, the third straight decline, and NAB business confidence and forward orders weakened, which strengthens the case for the RBA to hold at 4.85% after its split-vote hike on 3 November. The Aussie is also drifting lower as the Fed–RBA gap widens.
Source: StoneX, FXStreet, Trading Economics, 12 Nov 2026
USD/CAD holds near 1.4260 as soft Canadian jobs and cheaper oil weigh on the loonie
The pair is near its highest since mid-October after Canadian jobs missed and US data beat. Brent is down about 1.1% near 91.7 as hopes for Iran and Ukraine peace talks and a rebound in OPEC output pressure crude, and the 2026 high of 1.4299 on 14 October is the next target.
Source: Vantage Markets, Admiral Markets, Reuters via Business Recorder, 12 Nov 2026
USD/CHF extends its rebound after the franc fell about 1% yesterday on the SNB’s 0% stance
The franc was the weakest major against the dollar yesterday as the SNB, at 0% with inflation contained, contrasts with a Fed expected to hike in December and again in 2027. The next SNB decision is on 10 December.
Source: FXStreet, SNB, Tradingpedia, 12 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. All times are GMT.
- UK GDP, production and trade
- 07:00
- Thu 12 Nov, 07:00 GMT
- Q3 GDP +0.7% expected (previous 0.5%), September GDP 0.0%; the key test for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP flows
- London open
- 08:00
- Thu 12 Nov, 08:00 GMT
- First test of the Tokyo breakouts in USD/JPY and USD/CAD; watch for Japanese Ministry of Finance comments near 160
- US jobless claims
- 13:30
- Thu 12 Nov, 13:30 GMT
- Claims seen at 194K to 195K against 189K; existing home sales follow at 15:00 GMT
- Daly and Schmid speak
- 18:10
- Thu 12 Nov, 18:10 and 18:30 GMT
- Fed speakers follow Waller and Logan’s hawkish calls; any support for 50 basis points lifts the dollar
- Setup expiry and daily close
- 21:00
- Thu 12 Nov, 21:00 and 22:00 GMT
- Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT and daily candles close at 22:00 GMT
- Williams speaks
- 23:30
- Thu 12 Nov, 23:30 GMT
- The New York Fed president’s panel falls after setup expiry but will drive the Tokyo open in USD/JPY and AUD/USD
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Short | 160.10 | 160.75 | 158.97 | 158.50 | 1.7 / 2.5 | Low |
| AUD/USD | Short | 0.6870 | 0.6905 | 0.6820 | 0.6790 | 1.4 / 2.3 | Medium |
| EUR/USD | Short | 1.1130 | 1.1180 | 1.1065 | 1.1040 | 1.3 / 1.8 | Medium |
| GBP/USD | Short | 1.3315 | 1.3365 | 1.3250 | 1.3200 | 1.3 / 2.3 | Low |
| USD/CAD | Long | 1.4195 | 1.4130 | 1.4300 | 1.4350 | 1.6 / 2.4 | Medium |
| USD/CHF | Long | 0.8285 | 0.8235 | 0.8350 | 0.8395 | 1.3 / 2.2 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each pair is in its section below. Levels come from the daily charts captured at 05:37 GMT on the FXCM (USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF) and OANDA (AUD/USD, USD/CAD) feeds. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and UK GDP at 07:00 GMT can gap prices through them. Five ideas are dollar-long (short AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD, long USD/CAD and USD/CHF) and one is dollar-short (USD/JPY), so a hawkish Fed surprise would help five and hurt one. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
UK GDP at 07:00 GMT, US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and the Fed speakers are the swing factors for the rest of today.
If Fed speakers back 50 basis points or claims stay low, yields rise and the dollar extends its run
Hawkish talk from Daly or Schmid, a low claims print and a weak UK GDP would lift Fed hike pricing and the 10-year yield. USD/JPY would test 160 and Tokyo’s patience, while AUD, EUR and GBP would slide toward their channel floors.
- USD/JPY160.00, then 161.00
- AUD/USD0.6800, then 0.6760
- EUR/USD1.1040, then 1.1000
- GBP/USD1.3250, then 1.3200
- USD/CAD1.4299, then 1.4350
- USD/CHF0.8350, then 0.8395
If claims jump, UK GDP beats or Japan intervenes, the dollar gives back part of its rally
A higher claims print, a strong UK GDP or a Ministry of Finance move near 160 would trim Fed hike odds and pull the index off its 19-month high. USD/JPY would drop toward its averages, and AUD, EUR and GBP would bounce into their overhead resistance.
- USD/JPY158.97, then 158.50
- AUD/USD0.6870, then 0.6900
- EUR/USD1.1100, then 1.1182
- GBP/USD1.3300, then 1.3345
- USD/CAD1.4190, then 1.4150
- USD/CHF0.8290, then 0.8245
USD/JPY | Investing.com quote, FXCM chart feed
USD/JPY Analysis: Triangle Breakout Stalls Just Under 160 as Tokyo Warns on Intervention and the BOJ’s Asada Urges Caution
159.678 −0.103 (−0.06%) on the FXCM feed Previous close 159.781 | Range 159.477 to 159.836 | Reuters 159.83 at about 03:20 GMT, early high 159.94
Outlook: Bias is lower from 160.00 with low conviction, because the trend is up but the ceiling is political. The pair has broken out of the triangle on Fed hike bets, yet Japan’s top currency diplomat Mimura warned that it is still too early to forget the summer intervention, and BOJ board member Asada argued against hiking too fast. Japanese producer prices at 7.1% keep a December BOJ hike alive.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 158.10
- Support 1
- 158.97
- Resistance 1
- 160.00
- Resistance 2
- 161.00
- Price (159.678) is above the 158.97, 158.10 and 157.34 averages and just under 160.00, a level that preceded intervention twice this year; the last two times it traded above 160, at the end of July and early September, it fell more than five yen within a week. Main catalysts: US yields (10-year near 5.0%), any Ministry of Finance comment at the London open, and Fed speakers at 18:10 and 18:30 GMT.
- RSI 61.83 over its 53.62 average: momentum is firm but not stretched. A close above 160.75 would mean the market is calling Tokyo’s bluff and opens 161.00; a close under 158.97 puts the pair back inside the triangle and targets 158.10.
Setup: Short at 160.10, stop 160.75, targets 158.97, 158.50 and 158.10. Reward:risk 1.7 / 2.5 / 3.1, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 160.75, or if Fed hike pricing jumps while Tokyo stays silent. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
AUD/USD | Investing.com quote, OANDA chart feed
AUD/USD Analysis: Aussie Slides Toward the Channel Floor as Four-Year-Low Sentiment Meets a 19-Month High Dollar
0.68340 −0.00138 (−0.20%) on the OANDA feed Previous close 0.68478 | Range 0.68321 to 0.68597 | Reuters 0.6847 at about 03:20 GMT
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction. The Aussie is at an eight-month low as the dollar rallies and domestic data sour: Westpac consumer sentiment fell 2.7% to a four-year low of 78.2 and NAB business confidence is weak, which supports an RBA pause after its dovish hike to 4.85% on 3 November. No Australian data is due today, so US yields and Fed speakers set direction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.6760
- Support 1
- 0.6800
- Resistance 1
- 0.6870
- Resistance 2
- 0.6900
- Price (0.68340) is under all three averages (0.6971, 0.7021 and 0.7027) and about 40 pips above the channel floor. Main catalysts: US yields, Fed speakers at 18:10 and 18:30 GMT, Williams at 23:30 GMT and risk sentiment.
- RSI 34.19 under its 44.42 average: momentum is weak and near oversold, so bounces are likely to meet sellers. A close under 0.6800 targets 0.6760; a close above 0.6900 breaks the near-term downtrend and opens the 0.6971 average.
Setup: Short at 0.6870, stop 0.6905, targets 0.6820, 0.6790 and 0.6760. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.3 / 3.1, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 0.6905, or if US yields reverse sharply lower. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
EUR/USD | Investing.com quote, FXCM chart feed
EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Sinks Toward the Channel Floor Near 1.1040 Even With a December ECB Hike Priced Near 90%
1.10812 −0.00074 (−0.07%) on the FXCM feed Previous close 1.10886 | Range 1.10663 to 1.11001 | Reuters 1.1096 at about 03:20 GMT
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction, though the ECB provides some support. The euro is at its lowest on this chart since March while the dollar index sits at a 19-month high. A December ECB hike is about 90% priced and chief economist Lane called it prudent if data do not shift, but French fiscal strain and Lagarde’s early exit cap the euro, and Rabobank targets 1.10 on a three-month view.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.1000
- Support 1
- 1.1040
- Resistance 1
- 1.1100
- Resistance 2
- 1.1182
- Price (1.10812) is under all three averages (1.1182, 1.1305 and 1.1404). Main catalysts: US yields and Fed speakers at 18:10 and 18:30 GMT, ECB commentary and French bond spreads.
- RSI 36.81 under its 40.17 average: bearish momentum, not yet oversold. A close under 1.1040 breaks the channel floor and targets 1.1000; a close above 1.1182 ends the sell-the-bounce view and opens 1.1250.
Setup: Short at 1.1130, stop 1.1180, targets 1.1065, 1.1040 and 1.1000. Reward:risk 1.3 / 1.8 / 2.6, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 1.1180, or if the dollar index slips back under 102.50. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
GBP/USD | Investing.com quote, FXCM chart feed
GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling Breaks the Rising Trendline Ahead of UK GDP at 07:00 GMT, With the BoE Already at 4%
1.32613 −0.00114 (−0.09%) on the FXCM feed Previous close 1.32727 | Range 1.32500 to 1.32824 | Reuters 1.3266 at about 03:20 GMT
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with low conviction, because UK GDP at 07:00 GMT can reverse it. Sterling has broken its rising trendline as the dollar rallies, even though the BoE hiked to 4% on 5 November and Deputy Governor Lombardelli signaled more tightening. Consensus is +0.7% for Q3 (previous 0.5%) and 0.0% for September; a beat would support the hike story and lift cable toward 1.3345.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3200
- Support 1
- 1.3250
- Resistance 1
- 1.3300
- Resistance 2
- 1.3345
- Price (1.32613) is under all three averages (1.3345, 1.3365 and 1.3396) and the broken trendline. Main catalysts: UK Q3 and September GDP at 07:00 GMT, US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and Fed speakers at 18:10 and 18:30 GMT.
- RSI 42.47 under its 53.13 average: momentum has rolled over. A close under 1.3250 opens 1.3200 and the October low near 1.3140; a close above 1.3345 puts the trendline break in doubt.
Setup: Short at 1.3315, stop 1.3365, targets 1.3250, 1.3200 and 1.3140. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.3 / 3.5, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 1.3365, or if GDP beats and BoE hike pricing jumps. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
USD/CAD | Investing.com quote, OANDA chart feed
USD/CAD Analysis: Triangle Breakout Targets the 1.4299 High as Soft Canadian Jobs and Cheaper Oil Weigh on the Loonie
1.42580 +0.00062 (+0.04%) on the OANDA feed Previous close 1.42518 | Range 1.42427 to 1.42654 | 2026 high 1.4299 on 14 October
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips with medium conviction. USD/CAD has broken above the triangle as the Fed–BoC rate gap widens, Canadian jobs came in soft and Brent is lower near 91.7 on Iran and Ukraine peace-talk hopes. Canada has no scheduled data today, so US yields and oil set direction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.4075
- Support 1
- 1.4190
- Resistance 1
- 1.4299
- Resistance 2
- 1.4350
- Price (1.42580) is above all three averages (1.4075, 1.4067 and 1.4045) and about 40 pips under the 2026 high at 1.4299. Main catalysts: US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, Fed speakers at 18:10 and 18:30 GMT and oil.
- RSI 67.13 over its 48.01 average: momentum is strong and close to overbought, so a pullback to the broken line is the better entry. A close above 1.4299 opens 1.4350; a close under 1.4190 puts the pair back inside the triangle.
Setup: Long at 1.4195, stop 1.4130, targets 1.4300, 1.4350 and 1.4400. Reward:risk 1.6 / 2.4 / 3.2, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 1.4130, or if oil rebounds sharply and US yields fall. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
USD/CHF | Investing.com quote, FXCM chart feed
USD/CHF Analysis: Dollar Rebounds Inside the Rising Channel as the SNB Stays at 0% and Fed Hike Bets Build
0.83253 −0.00056 (−0.07%) on the FXCM feed Previous close 0.83309 | Range 0.83161 to 0.83361 | Franc fell about 1% against the dollar yesterday
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips with medium conviction. The franc was the weakest major yesterday, down about 1% against the dollar, as the SNB holds at 0% while the Fed is expected to hike in December and again in 2027. The pair has rebounded about 2.4% from the channel floor near 0.8130 and no Swiss data is scheduled today.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8245
- Support 1
- 0.8290
- Resistance 1
- 0.8350
- Resistance 2
- 0.8395
- Price (0.83253) is above all three averages (0.8245, 0.8241 and 0.8166). Main catalysts: US yields, Fed speakers at 18:10 and 18:30 GMT and safe-haven franc flows if risk sentiment turns.
- RSI 60.10 over its 48.74 average: momentum is firm but not stretched. A close above 0.8350 opens 0.8395; a close under 0.8245 breaks the rebound and targets 0.8166.
Setup: Long at 0.8285, stop 0.8235, targets 0.8350, 0.8395 and 0.8440. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.2 / 3.1, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 0.8235, or if US yields drop on soft claims data. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
A 19-month-high dollar and rising Fed hike odds favor selling bounces in AUD/USD near 0.6870 and EUR/USD near 1.1130 (medium conviction) and GBP/USD near 1.3315 (low), and buying dips in USD/CAD near 1.4195 and USD/CHF near 0.8285 (medium). In USD/JPY we fade 160 with a short near 160.10 (low) because of intervention risk. The session risks are UK GDP at 07:00 GMT, US jobless claims at 13:30, Daly at 18:10 and Schmid at 18:30 GMT. A 4-hour close above 160.75 in USD/JPY or above 1.3365 in GBP/USD would change the picture.
Trade USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the forex outlook for today?
The dollar is at a 19-month high near 103.0 on Fed hike bets, with the yen capped under 160, the euro, sterling and Aussie lower and the loonie and franc weak. UK GDP at 07:00 GMT, US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and the Fed speakers at 18:10 and 18:30 GMT are the scheduled tests.
Which forex trade ideas are live today?
Short USD/JPY near 160.10, short AUD/USD near 0.6870, short EUR/USD near 1.1130, short GBP/USD near 1.3315, long USD/CAD near 1.4195 and long USD/CHF near 0.8285, each with a stop and three targets valid until 21:00 GMT.
What time are the key events in GMT?
UK GDP, production and trade are at 07:00 GMT, the London open is at 08:00, US jobless claims are at 13:30, existing home sales at 15:00, Daly at 18:10, Schmid at 18:30, setups expire at 21:00, daily candles close at 22:00 and Williams speaks at 23:30 GMT.
Why is USD/JPY stuck under 160?
Fed hike bets push it up, but Japan’s Ministry of Finance has warned about rapid moves and 160 preceded intervention twice this year. Analysts say it needs a further jump in Fed pricing or less BOJ hike pricing to break higher.
Why is the dollar so strong today?
Hot October CPI, a possible 50 basis point December hike from Waller and a 10-year yield near 5% have lifted Fed hike odds, and January is now more than 50% priced.
