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Wall Street Bounce on Trial: S&P 500 Futures Rise After the AI Rout, but Nvidia Turmoil and a 79% Fed Hike Bet Loom Over the Open | Technical Analysis – Index Report | 09 Nov 2026

November 9, 2026
CSFX ResearchDesk
Indices LIVE, 9 Nov 2026: S&P 500 Rally Extends Toward 7,520 as Oil Slides, but Nvidia Is Down 6% and the Fed Hike Bet Is 82% | Capital Street FX
Indices LIVE, 9 Nov · 16:30 GMTS&P 500 7,519.20 +1.93%Trade setups

LIVE Indices | Monday 9 November 2026 | 16:30 GMT update, US midday session | Barkin 17:15 GMT, Bailey 17:25 GMT, US CPI Tuesday

S&P 500 Rally Extends Toward 7,520 as Oil Slides, but Nvidia Is Down 6% and the Fed Hike Bet Is 82%

Market Overview

Wall Street has turned the bounce into a rally, but not yet a recovery: the S&P 500 is up 1.93% at 7,519.20 at about 16:30 GMT, Thursday’s 4.4% plunge is only partly repaired, Nvidia is down about 6%, and traders price an 82% chance of a December Fed hike. The Dow is up 1.80% at 52,207 and the Nasdaq 100 about 3% near 27,820, lifted by a 5% drop in Brent to about $93 on Iran peace hopes and a rebound in chipmakers (AMD +11%). Europe is also higher into the 16:30 GMT close (FTSE 100 +0.76% at 10,754.92, DAX +1.35% near 26,169). Nvidia’s board is still investigating CEO Jensen Huang after he admitted an affair with a woman US intelligence suspects of spying for China; shares fell as much as 8% and are about 6% lower. The VIX has dropped to about 21.2 and the 10-year yield sits near 4.85% after Friday’s 165,000 payrolls.

Barkin, Bailey, the 3-year auction and Tuesday’s CPI decide whether the rally holds. Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) said the Fed must come to terms with its failure on inflation and that services inflation is rising, which supports the hike bet, yet stocks kept climbing. Barkin speaks at 17:15 GMT, Bailey at 17:25 GMT and the Treasury sells $58 billion of 3-year notes at 18:00 GMT. October CPI at 13:30 GMT on Tuesday (+0.3% m/m forecast, core +0.2%) is the bigger test of the hike bet. The S&P 500 is about 194 points above its 200-day average near 7,325 and has cleared 7,444; the Nasdaq 100 is still about 164 points under its own near 27,984. Desk plan: the S&P 500 long needs a pullback to 7,400 and has not triggered; the Nasdaq 100 short triggered at 27,650 and is now about 170 points against us ahead of the 28,050 stop. RSI readings below are from the 13:30 GMT chart captures and have not been recalculated.

Key highlights

  • S&P 500: Price 7,519.20 has cleared 7,444 and the 200-day near 7,325 but is still under three averages (7,618.70 to 7,679.45); 7,520 caps and 7,444 is now the first support.
  • Nasdaq 100: Price about 27,820 is through 27,316 and about 164 points under its 200-day average; 28,000 to 28,050 caps (the short’s stop zone) and 27,316 supports.
  • FTSE 100: Price 10,754.92 holds above three averages and the rising trendline; 10,860 caps and 10,692 supports.
  • DAX 40: Price about 26,169 is holding above 26,000; 26,200 caps and 25,800 supports.
  • Hang Seng: Closed at 24,448.95 and reopens at 01:15 GMT Tuesday; Wall Street’s rally points to a firmer open toward the 24,589 cap, with 24,388 supporting.

What’s Moving Indices Today

High Rally

The S&P 500 is up 1.9% and the Dow 1.8% as stocks win back part of last week’s AI rout, and the VIX has fallen to about 21

Thursday’s 4.4% S&P 500 fall and 5.5% Nasdaq plunge are being partly retraced. At about 16:30 GMT the S&P 500 is up 142 points at 7,519.20, the Dow up 921 points at 52,207 and the Nasdaq Composite up about 2.2% near 25,116, on top of Friday’s closes of 7,376.86, 51,285.73 and 24,579. Brokerages including Morgan Stanley and UBS called the AI selloff overdone, arguing that extreme data-centre regulation under a Democrat-controlled Congress is unlikely. The Nasdaq 100 is still down about 13% over the past month after a fourth straight weekly fall.

Source: Yahoo Finance, Reuters via Detroit News, 24/7 Wall St, The Private Banker, 9 Nov 2026

High Nvidia

Nvidia’s board probe of CEO Jensen Huang keeps the stock about 6% lower even as the rest of the chip sector rallies

Nvidia fell as much as 8% and is about 6% lower near $176 from Friday’s $186.64 after Huang admitted the affair and the board opened an independent investigation. The board says it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised, Huang stays CEO, President Trump has backed him and China called the spying allegations baseless; the espionage link is unproven and the probe is open. The market is rotating inside the AI trade rather than leaving it: AMD is up about 11% and Broadcom is higher.

Source: Yahoo Finance, Reuters, 24/7 Wall St, Bank of Vol, 9 Nov 2026

High Fed and CPI

December Fed hike odds have risen to about 82% after Goolsbee’s hawkish remarks, and October CPI is due Tuesday at 13:30 GMT

Payrolls of 165,000 and unemployment at 4.1% lifted CME FedWatch odds of a 25bp hike on 9 December (from 3.75% to 4.00%) to about 82%, up from 76% on Friday. Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee, a non-voter, said the Fed has to come to terms with its inflation-side failure and that services inflation has started rising, and added that the data-centre investment boom looks like overheating. The 10-year yield is near 4.85% and the 2-year near 4.53%. CPI is forecast at +0.3% m/m with core at +0.2%, and Barkin (17:15 GMT) speaks next.

Source: FXStreet, CNBC, Seeking Alpha, TLT News, 9 Nov 2026

Medium Europe

The DAX and FTSE 100 extend their rebound after Friday’s falls of 1.9% and 1.0%, led by chipmakers, banks and miners

European shares firmed through the day as US futures and oil moved the right way. Into the 16:30 GMT close the DAX is up about 1.35% near 26,169, the FTSE 100 up 0.76% at 10,754.92 and the STOXX 600 up about 0.9% near 654. Frankfurt-listed Nvidia shares fell about 6%, but Infineon rose more than 6% and Italian banks rallied on merger news. The STOXX 600 is still ahead of the S&P 500 this year, with eurozone GDP and ECB speakers due this week.

Source: Investing.com, Yahoo Finance, CNN Markets, JournalArta, 9 Nov 2026

Medium Bank of England

The Bank of England’s unanimous hike to 4.00% leaves a December move near even odds, with Bailey speaking at 17:25 GMT

All nine MPC members voted to raise on 5 November, one of them for 50bp, and the Bank sees inflation near 5% by mid-2027. UK Q3 GDP follows on Thursday at 07:00 GMT. Pantheon calls the hike more hawkish than expected, and sterling has climbed 0.4% to about 1.3410 as the dollar weakens.

Source: FXStreet, Pound Sterling Live, Yahoo Finance, 9 Nov 2026

Medium Hong Kong

The Hang Seng closed 0.13% lower at 24,448.95 as Huatai warned the rally is largely played out; it reopens at 01:15 GMT Tuesday

The index opened higher and faded, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises index −0.17% to 8,260.15 and the Tech index −0.92% to 4,040.73 on HK$173.7 billion of turnover. Last week it jumped 3.7% on Thursday to 24,797 and fell 1.27% on Friday. Huatai advises against chasing high-beta stocks ahead of a December peak in lock-up expiries. Wall Street’s rally since the close raises the odds of a firmer open.

Source: Futu News, Hang Seng Indexes, Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, 9 Nov 2026

Medium Oil and gold

Brent has fallen about 5% to roughly $93 on Iran peace hopes while gold has risen to about $4,130

Brent fell 4.96% to $93.44 and WTI 4.6% to $86.65 as hopes for a diplomatic end to the Iran war grew, with President Trump due to meet Qatar’s prime minister at the White House on Monday. Lower crude eases inflation worries and has supported airlines, cyclicals and the broad rally, while gold is up about 1.3% and the dollar is weaker. Treasury yields face resistance near 4.90%.

Source: JournalArta, Benzinga, CNBC, FXStreet, 9 Nov 2026

Key Drivers for the Rest of Today

Six things that set direction for the rest of the session (the first two have already happened) in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Hang Seng. All times are GMT.

Bowman and US open (done)
13:40
Mon 9 Nov, 13:40 and 14:30 GMT
Bowman spoke at 13:40 GMT (details not captured here) and Wall Street opened higher at 14:30 GMT, with the S&P 500 gaining about 1% at the bell
Goolsbee (done)
15:00
Mon 9 Nov, 15:00 and 16:00 GMT
Said the Fed must come to terms with its inflation-side failure and that services inflation is rising; hike odds rose to about 82% and stocks still climbed
London and Xetra close
16:30
Mon 9 Nov, 16:30 GMT
FTSE 100 and DAX cash sessions end; CFD prices keep trading afterwards
Barkin and Bailey
17:15
Mon 9 Nov, 17:15 and 17:25 GMT
Richmond Fed’s Barkin on the outlook, then BoE Governor Bailey; either could move yields and the dollar
3-year auction
18:00
Mon 9 Nov, 18:00 GMT (1:00 pm ET)
Treasury sells $58 billion of 3-year notes (prior 4.932%); a weak auction would push yields toward resistance near 4.90%
US close and setup expiry
21:00
Mon 9 Nov, 21:00 GMT
Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT; Occidental reports after the close; CPI is Tuesday 13:30 GMT

Swipe the strip to see every driver.

Trade Setups for Today

Ranked in the order S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Hang Seng, valid until 21:00 GMT today (the Hang Seng idea until 08:00 GMT on Tuesday). A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea. The status column was added at 16:30 GMT.

InstrumentDirectionEntryStopTarget 1Target 2Reward:riskConvictionStatus, 16:30 GMTNot triggered: price 7,519; needs a pullback to 7,400Triggered: price about 27,820, about 170 points againstNot triggered: price 10,755; entry 10,700Not triggered: price about 26,169; entry 25,900Not triggered: closed 24,449; reopens 01:15 GMT
S&P 500 (SPX)Long7,4007,3187,5207,6181.5 / 2.7Low
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)Short27,65028,05027,20026,8881.1 / 1.9Low
FTSE 100 (UKX)Long10,70010,62810,81010,8801.5 / 2.5Medium
DAX 40 (DE40)Long25,90025,74026,20026,4001.9 / 3.1Medium
Hang Seng (HSI)Long24,30024,10024,58924,7971.4 / 2.5Low

Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each market is in its section below. Entries, stops and targets are unchanged from the 13:30 GMT edition; only the status column and commentary were updated at about 16:30 GMT. Live levels come from Yahoo Finance, Reuters and 24/7 Wall St quotes (S&P 500 7,519.20, Dow 52,207, Nasdaq 100 about 27,820, FTSE 100 10,754.92, DAX about 26,169) and can differ by a few points from the charting feed. Since the US open the S&P 500 has not come back to its 7,400 entry, so that long is not filled and chasing it at 7,519 would leave about 99 points to Target 2 against 201 points to the stop. The Nasdaq 100 short filled at 27,650 and the index is about 170 points higher, with the stop 230 points away. The FTSE 100, DAX and Hang Seng ideas still need a pullback to trigger, and Barkin, Bailey, the auction and Tuesday’s CPI can gap prices through them. Four ideas are long and one is short, and the long US and European ideas share one risk (a sharp Nasdaq reversal would hit them together, while the short is hurt if the rally keeps going). Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.

Risk Scenario Analysis

Barkin at 17:15 GMT, Bailey at 17:25 GMT, the 18:00 GMT 3-year auction and Tuesday’s CPI at 13:30 GMT are the swing factors.

If Barkin, the auction or a fresh Nvidia headline turn hawkish, yields would rise and the rally would fade

Goolsbee has already tilted hawkish, so a weak 3-year auction, a hawkish Barkin or a fresh Nvidia headline would push the 10-year toward 4.90% and sink the Nasdaq first. The S&P 500 would give back the 7,444 breakout, and Europe and Hong Kong would follow lower.

  • S&P 5007,444, then 7,400
  • Nasdaq 10027,316, then 26,888
  • FTSE 10010,692, then 10,640
  • DAX 4025,800, then 25,670
  • Hang Seng24,388, then 24,100

S&P 500 (SPX) | Cash index, TradingView SP feed, futures per Yahoo Finance

S&P 500 Analysis: Rally Clears 7,444 and Pushes Toward 7,520, but Price Is Still Under Three Averages and the Long Has Not Triggered

7,519.20 +142.34 (+1.93%) at about 16:30 GMT, cash index Previous close 7,376.86 | Dow 52,207 (+1.80%) | Nasdaq Composite about 25,116 (+2.2%) | VIX about 21.2

Outlook: Bias is higher on dips, but the entry has moved away. The S&P 500 gapped up at the 14:30 GMT open and has climbed about 1.9% as oil slides and chipmakers rebound, clearing the 7,444 cap and sitting on Target 1 at 7,520. The long at 7,400 has not been touched since the open, and chasing here leaves about 99 points to 7,618 against 201 points to the 7,318 stop. An 82% December hike bet and Tuesday’s CPI at 13:30 GMT are the next tests.

S&P 500 daily chart as captured at 13:30 GMT, 7,376.86 Friday close, RSI 35.11 against its signal at 44.99.
S&P 500, daily chart as captured at 13:30 GMT (last candle Friday 6 November; not redrawn since). At that point price had fallen out of the rising channel that began in late July and sat about 52 points above the 200-day average near 7,325. The three averages sit overhead at 7,618.70, 7,657.80 and 7,679.45, and live price has since moved up through 7,444. Friday’s range was 7,369.55 to 7,444.20.

Key levels

Support 2
7,354
Support 1
7,444
Resistance 1
7,520
Resistance 2
7,618
  • Price (7,519.20) is above the 200-day average near 7,325 and the 7,444 level, but still under all three averages (7,618.70 to 7,679.45). Main catalysts: Barkin at 17:15 GMT, the 18:00 GMT 3-year auction and Tuesday’s CPI (forecast +0.3% m/m, core +0.2%). Goolsbee’s hawkish tone at 15:00 GMT did not stop the rally.
  • RSI was 35.11 under its 44.99 average at the 13:30 GMT capture and has not been recalculated, so the rally will have lifted it. A close above 7,520 targets the 7,618 average; a close under 7,444 puts 7,354 and then the 200-day average at 7,325 back in play, and a break of that opens 7,200.

Setup: Long at 7,400, stop 7,318, targets 7,520, 7,618 and 7,680. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.7 / 3.4, low conviction. Status at 16:30 GMT: not triggered (price 7,519). Cancel if a 4-hour close under 7,318, or if hike odds rise above 85% (about 82% now). Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) | Cash index, TradingView NASDAQ feed, futures per Yahoo Finance

Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Rally Through 27,316 Triggers the Short Entry, With the 28,000 Average Zone and the 28,050 Stop Next

about 27,820 about +3.0% at about 16:30 GMT, cash index (approximate) Friday close 26,989.99 | Nasdaq Composite about 25,116 (+2.2%) | Nvidia about −6%

Outlook: Bias is lower on rallies only while price stays under 28,050, and the idea is now live and under pressure. Chipmakers outside Nvidia (AMD +11%, Broadcom higher) and falling oil have lifted the index about 3%, carrying it through 27,316 and the 27,650 entry, even with Nvidia down about 6% on the board’s probe of CEO Jensen Huang. The index is still down about 13% over the past month and about 164 points under its 200-day average near 27,984.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart as captured at 13:30 GMT, 26,989.99 Friday close, RSI 31.39 against its signal at 38.69.
Nasdaq 100, daily chart as captured at 13:30 GMT (last candle Friday 6 November; not redrawn since). Price had broken below the rising channel that began in late July and was far under the 29,090.95, 29,453.84 and 29,632.70 averages. Friday’s range was 26,887.69 to 27,316.09, and Thursday’s close was 26,629.81.

Key levels

Support 2
26,888
Support 1
27,316
Resistance 1
28,000
Resistance 2
29,091
  • Price (about 27,820) is above Friday’s 27,316 high and under all three averages (29,090.95 to 29,632.70) and the 200-day average near 27,984. Main catalysts: Nvidia headlines, Tuesday’s CPI (13:30 GMT) and CoreWeave’s results after the close on Tuesday, with Cisco and Applied Materials on Thursday.
  • RSI was 31.39 under its 38.69 average at the 13:30 GMT capture and has not been recalculated; the index is no longer as oversold. The 28,000 to 28,050 zone is the 200-day average and the short’s stop: a close above 28,050 invalidates the weak view and opens the 29,091 average, while a move back under 27,316 puts 26,888 in play.

Setup: Short at 27,650, stop 28,050, targets 27,200, 26,888 and 26,630. Reward:risk 1.1 / 1.9 / 2.5, low conviction. Status at 16:30 GMT: triggered, with price about 170 points through the entry and about 230 points under the stop. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 28,050, or if Tuesday’s CPI undershoots and yields drop sharply.

FTSE 100 (UKX) | London cash index, TradingView FTSE feed

FTSE 100 Analysis: Price Holds the Rising Trendline and Three Averages as the Triangle Tightens Under 10,900

10,754.92 +80.98 (+0.76%) at about 16:20 GMT, ahead of the 16:30 GMT close Previous close 10,673.94 | Day range 10,654.32 to 10,768.95

Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while 10,692 holds. London is up about 0.8%, led by miners as metals rise and oil falls on Iran peace hopes, after falling 1.0% on Friday, and Wall Street’s rally has kept the tone firm into the close. The Bank of England’s unanimous 25bp hike to 4.00% on 5 November leaves a December move near even odds, and Governor Bailey speaks at 17:25 GMT.

FTSE 100 daily chart at 10,754.38, RSI 52.49 against its signal at 52.24.
FTSE 100, daily chart (cash index) as captured at 13:30 GMT, not redrawn since. Price was squeezing inside a triangle between the falling top line near 10,880 and the rising line that began at the March low, and it is trading on the 10,740.18, 10,692.17 and 10,691.77 averages. The 5 November spike to about 10,950 was rejected.

Key levels

Support 2
10,640
Support 1
10,692
Resistance 1
10,860
Resistance 2
10,950
  • Price (10,754.92) is just above all three averages (10,691.77 to 10,740.18). Main catalysts: the 16:30 GMT London close, the US session, Bailey at 17:25 GMT and Thursday’s UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 GMT.
  • RSI was 52.49 over its 52.24 average at the 13:30 GMT capture: neutral. A close above 10,860 targets 10,950; a close under 10,640 breaks the rising trendline and puts 10,400 in view.

Setup: Long at 10,700, stop 10,628, targets 10,810, 10,880 and 10,950. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5, medium conviction. Status at 16:30 GMT: not triggered (price 10,755). Cancel if a 4-hour close under 10,628, or if Wall Street reverses lower. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

DAX 40 (DAX) | Xetra cash index, TradingView XETR feed

DAX 40 Analysis: Price Reclaims 26,000 After Retesting the Broken Channel, With 26,500 the Next Test

26,168.94 +348.58 (+1.35%), latest available before the 16:30 GMT Xetra close Previous close 25,820.36 | Day low 25,793.06

Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while 25,800 holds. The DAX is rebounding after a 1.9% fall on Friday as oil slips, chipmakers recover (Infineon is up more than 6%) and Wall Street rallies. Nvidia’s Frankfurt shares are about 6% lower, but the wider tech rebound has outweighed it, so the 16:30 GMT Xetra close and the next leg in US futures matter.

DAX daily chart at 26,065.45, RSI 56.05 against its signal at 55.68.
DAX 40, daily chart (Xetra cash index) as captured at 13:30 GMT, not redrawn since. Price had broken out of the falling channel that began in late August and has retested it from above, holding the 25,672.20, 25,577.95 and 25,551.76 averages. Thursday’s spike to about 26,700 is the swing high.

Key levels

Support 2
25,670
Support 1
25,800
Resistance 1
26,200
Resistance 2
26,500
  • Price (about 26,169) is above all three averages (25,551.76 to 25,672.20) and holds above 26,000, now 31 points under the 26,200 cap. Main catalysts: the US session, eurozone Q3 GDP and ECB speakers this week, and Tuesday’s US CPI.
  • RSI was 56.05 over its 55.68 average at the 13:30 GMT capture: momentum positive. A close above 26,200 targets 26,500 and then 26,700; a close under 25,800 puts the averages near 25,670 in play, and a break there reopens the channel.

Setup: Long at 25,900, stop 25,740, targets 26,200, 26,400 and 26,700. Reward:risk 1.9 / 3.1 / 5.0, medium conviction. Status at 16:30 GMT: not triggered (price about 26,169, with Target 1 only 31 points away). Cancel if a 4-hour close under 25,740, or if Nasdaq futures reverse lower. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) | Hong Kong cash index, TradingView HSI feed

Hang Seng Analysis: Price Stalls at the Top of the Falling Channel After a Five-Week High, With the 24,388 Average as Support

24,448.95 −32.91 (−0.13%) at the 08:08 GMT close Previous close 24,481.86 | Day range 24,421.11 to 24,738.88

Outlook: Bias is mildly higher on dips with low conviction. The index opened higher, faded and closed at 24,448.95 on turnover of HK$173.7 billion, with the Hang Seng Tech index down 0.92%. Huatai Securities argues the short-term drivers of last week’s rally have largely played out, and Hong Kong is shut until 01:15 GMT on Tuesday, and Wall Street’s rally since the close (S&P 500 +1.9%) points to a firmer open toward the 24,589 average.

Hang Seng daily chart at 24,448.95, RSI 57.44 against its signal at 41.27.
Hang Seng Index, daily chart (cash index, closed). Price has pushed above the top of the falling channel that began in early August and is retesting it. The 24,588.53 average caps, with the 24,388.15 and 23,744.77 averages below. The 5 November close was 24,796.98.

Key levels

Support 2
24,100
Support 1
24,388
Resistance 1
24,589
Resistance 2
24,797
  • Price (24,448.95) is between the 24,588.53 and 24,388.15 averages and above the 23,744.77 average. Main catalysts: Wall Street’s close, Tuesday’s CPI, China trade data on Tuesday, and a peak in share lock-up expiries in December.
  • RSI 57.44 over its 41.27 average: momentum has turned up. A close above 24,589 targets 24,797 and then 25,150; a close under 24,388 puts 24,100 in play and sends price back into the channel.

Setup: Long at 24,300, stop 24,100, targets 24,589, 24,797 and 25,150. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.5 / 4.2, low conviction. Status at 16:30 GMT: not triggered (closed 24,449, reopens 01:15 GMT Tuesday). Cancel if a 4-hour close under 24,100, or if Wall Street sells off at the open. Valid until the Hong Kong close on Tuesday 10 November at 08:00 GMT.

Conclusion

The rally is real, but it rests on falling oil and a chip rebound while the Fed hike bet has risen to about 82% and Tuesday’s CPI is the bigger event. The S&P 500 long near 7,400 and the Hang Seng long near 24,300 (low conviction) have not triggered, and we would not chase the S&P 500 at 7,519. We still prefer buying dips in the DAX near 25,900 and the FTSE 100 near 10,700 (medium conviction), both of which are within about 55 and 270 points of the entry and have not filled. The Nasdaq 100 short from 27,650 (low) has filled and is about 170 points against us, so the 28,050 stop is the line that matters. The remaining session risks are Barkin at 17:15 GMT, Bailey at 17:25 GMT and the 3-year auction at 18:00 GMT. A 4-hour close under 7,318 in the S&P 500 or above 28,050 in the Nasdaq 100 would change the picture.

Trade the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Hang Seng with Capital Street FX.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the stock index outlook for today?

US stocks are rallying (S&P 500 +1.9%, Dow +1.8%, Nasdaq 100 about +3% at 16:30 GMT) as oil falls and chipmakers rebound, Europe is higher into its close, and the Hang Seng closed slightly lower. Barkin at 17:15 GMT, Bailey at 17:25 GMT and the 3-year auction at 18:00 GMT are the remaining scheduled tests before Tuesday’s CPI.

Which index trade ideas are live today?

The Nasdaq 100 short from 27,650 has triggered and is about 170 points against, with a stop at 28,050. The longs in the S&P 500 (7,400), FTSE 100 (10,700), DAX (25,900) and Hang Seng (24,300) have not triggered and need pullbacks. Each has a stop and three targets valid until 21:00 GMT (the Hang Seng until 08:00 GMT on Tuesday).

What time are the key events in GMT?

Barkin speaks at 17:15 GMT and Bailey at 17:25, the 3-year auction is at 18:00 (1:00 pm ET), London and Frankfurt close at 16:30, and setups expire at 21:00 GMT. Bowman (13:40), the US open (14:30) and Goolsbee (15:00) have already happened. US October CPI is Tuesday 10 November at 13:30 GMT.

Why did US stocks fall so sharply last week?

An AI-led selloff on Thursday, triggered by fears that the Democratic midterm win could slow data-centre buildout, cut the S&P 500 by 4.4% and the Nasdaq by 5.5%. Friday brought only a partial bounce, and strong payrolls then lifted December Fed hike odds. Monday’s rally recovers part of that loss, but the Nasdaq 100 is still down about 13% over the past month.

Why is the Nasdaq 100 a short idea when it is rallying?

Price is still about 164 points under its 200-day average and the three longer averages sit above 29,000, so the 28,000 to 28,050 zone is heavy resistance. The idea triggered at 27,650 and is currently against us, so a close above 28,050 cancels it.

Capital Street Research Desk

The Capital Street FX research team publishes analysis across forex, commodities, bonds, indices, shares and crypto, focused on the levels and events that matter to active traders.

This edition updates the 13:30 GMT report at about 16:30 GMT on 9 November 2026. Live levels are intraday readings from Yahoo Finance (S&P 500 7,519.20, Dow 52,207, Nasdaq Composite about 25,116, FTSE 100 10,754.92), 24/7 Wall St (Nasdaq 100 about 27,820, which is approximate and should be checked against a live quote), JournalArta (DAX 26,168.94, Brent $93.44) and Reuters, CNBC and FXStreet (Fed odds, yields and Goolsbee’s remarks); the Hang Seng 24,448.95 is the Hang Seng Indexes close at 08:08 GMT. European cash closes at 16:30 GMT were not yet published, so the FTSE 100 and DAX figures are the latest available before the close. The chart images are the 13:30 GMT TradingView captures and have not been redrawn, so RSI figures and moving averages are as of that capture; the 200-day averages (S&P about 7,325, Nasdaq 100 about 27,984) come from the Cestrian Daily Market Review. Entries, stops and targets are unchanged from the earlier edition. Cross-checks: Yahoo Finance, Reuters, CNBC, Benzinga, TheStreet, Investing.com, FXStreet, Seeking Alpha, Saxo, Futu News and Trading Economics; no Bloomberg page from today could be retrieved directly. Event times follow Trading Economics, FXEmpire and Investing.com calendars converted to GMT; the 3-year auction at 1:00 pm ET is 18:00 GMT. All times are GMT.

This report is for information and education only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading indices and CFDs on margin carries a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage, and prices can gap around central bank comments, earnings, geopolitical headlines and data releases. Levels and trade setups are conditional technical references, not recommendations. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.