S&P 500 Holds Near Records | Indices Today
Daily Indices Report | Monday 12 October 2026
KOSPI Plunges to 6,384 as S&P 500 Holds 7,805 Near Records Before US CPI
Market Overview
This indices report covers six benchmarks on a split Monday. The KOSPI fell 3.65% to 6,384.24 as foreign investors sold Samsung Electronics and SK hynix for a 10th straight session. Tokyo was closed for Sports Day, so the Nikkei 225 stays at Friday’s 69,030.70. European shares closed higher: the FTSE 100 rose 0.99% to 10,656.28 and the CAC 40 rose 0.38% to 7,832.89. On Wall Street the Dow Jones trades at 51,858.18 (+0.38%) while the S&P 500 sits at 7,805.47 (−0.08%) as tech lags and oil rises.
The main catalyst is US CPI for September on Wednesday 14 October at 16:30 GST, preceded by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs earnings on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates to 3.75–4.00% in September and meets again on 27–28 October, the US 10-year yield is near 5.24% and Brent trades above $100 on the Iran conflict. Our bias is bullish for the S&P 500 from 7,720, the Dow from 51,550, the FTSE 100 from 10,620 and the Nikkei 225 from 67,600, and bearish for the KOSPI from 6,650 and the CAC 40 from 7,985.
Key highlights
- KOSPI closed at 6,384.24, down 241.69 points, as Samsung and SK hynix each fell more than 4%; the 6,684 average is the level to clear.
- US CPI (Sep) is due Wednesday 14 October at 16:30 GST; a core print above +0.2% m/m favours retests of 7,714 on the S&P 500 and 51,513 on the Dow.
- Nikkei 225 reopens on Tuesday 13 October after the holiday, with the 67,500 breakout retest the key level for the bulls.
Trade Setups for Today
Six setups for Monday 12 October 2026. Each carries a defined invalidation level: a 1-hour close beyond the stop negates the idea. Setups are valid for today’s session and the next, and the Nikkei idea applies once Tokyo reopens.
| Index | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | Long | 67,600 | 66,300 | 71,000 | 72,500 | 2.6 / 3.8 | Low |
| KOSPI | Short | 6,650 | 6,760 | 6,200 | 6,000 | 4.1 / 5.9 | Medium |
| FTSE 100 | Long | 10,620 | 10,540 | 10,725 | 10,800 | 1.3 / 2.3 | Low |
| CAC 40 | Short | 7,985 | 8,070 | 7,800 | 7,680 | 2.2 / 3.6 | Medium |
| Dow Jones | Long | 51,550 | 51,150 | 52,168 | 52,626 | 1.5 / 2.7 | Medium |
| S&P 500 | Long | 7,720 | 7,660 | 7,850 | 8,000 | 2.2 / 4.7 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to target 1 and target 2, divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Key Drivers Today
Five data points and events set direction for the major indices today and this week. Times are Gulf Standard Time (GST).
- KOSPI foreign selling
- 10th session
- Net −2.02T won; Oct near −10T
- Nikkei 225 reopens
- 69,030.70
- Tokyo shut for Sports Day
- US bank earnings
- JPM, GS, C, WFC
- JPM EPS est. $5.90
- US CPI (Sep)
- 3.6% y/y
- +0.6% m/m; core +0.2% m/m
- Brent crude
- Above $100
- Iran conflict; US 10y 5.24%
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
US CPI Scenario Analysis
US CPI for September is due Wednesday 14 October at 16:30 GST (12:30 GMT). Consensus is about +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y for the headline, up from 3.4% y/y in August, with core at +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. Select a scenario to view the expected path for each index, with levels.
Hot CPI: core above +0.2% m/m or headline above 3.6% y/y
A hotter print would revive Fed rate-hike bets for 27–28 October and lift Treasury yields, which pressures richly valued equities.
- Nikkei 22566,500, then 65,990
- KOSPI6,200, then 6,000
- FTSE 10010,615, then 10,400
- CAC 407,800, then 7,680
- Dow Jones51,513, then 50,600
- S&P 5007,714, then 7,587
Soft CPI: core at or below +0.2% m/m and headline at or below 3.6% y/y
An in-line or softer print would ease rate-hike expectations and yields, which supports a rebound toward the averages and recent highs.
- Nikkei 22571,000, then 72,500
- KOSPI6,684, then 6,853
- FTSE 10010,725, then 10,800
- CAC 407,985, then 8,263
- Dow Jones52,168, then 52,626
- S&P 5007,850, then 8,000
Nikkei 225 | JP225
Nikkei 225 Analysis: Tokyo Reopens With 67,500 Breakout Retest in Focus
69,030.70 −11.41 (−0.02%) Friday close Friday range 68,150–69,143
Outlook: Bias is bullish while the Nikkei holds the 67,500 breakout zone. Tokyo cash equities were closed on Monday 12 October for Sports Day, so the 69,030.70 quote is Friday’s close and the market reopens on Tuesday. Friday fell as much as 892 points before buyers recovered the loss. The preferred approach is a pullback long at 67,600 with a stop at 66,300 and targets at 71,000 and 72,500, sized for low conviction because of the reopening gap risk.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 66,500
- Support 1
- 67,500
- Resistance 1
- 71,000
- Resistance 2
- 72,500
Daily chart structure
- Price gapped above the falling triangle resistance line on 1–2 October and has pulled back from the 71,000 area; the broken line near 67,500 is the retest level, with the June high near 72,500 above.
- All three averages cluster below price at 66,523.67, 66,484.44 and 65,989.97, so a pullback to 66,500 would test trend support rather than break it.
- RSI reads 59.80, above its signal line at 57.98; the Nikkei has slipped three sessions in a row, and a Tokyo reopening under 68,000 would show AI-chip selling in Korea spreading to Japan.
Nikkei 225 trade setup
Long Low conviction- Entry
- 67,600
- Stop loss
- 66,300
- Target 1
- 71,000
- Target 2
- 72,500
Risk 1,300, or 1.9%. Reward:risk 2.6 to target 1, 3.8 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry sits at the broken triangle line near 67,500, above the 66,500 average cluster. The stop is below that cluster, and the targets are the early-October high near 71,000 and the June high near 72,500.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 66,300 after Tokyo reopens. A gap lower on Tuesday 13 October, led by chip stocks, or a hot US CPI print on Wednesday 14 October is the main risk.
KOSPI | KS11
KOSPI Analysis: 6,684 Caps Rebounds After Foreign Selling Drives a 3.65% Plunge
6,384.24 −241.69 (−3.65%) day Day range 6,368.49–6,589.69
Outlook: Bias is bearish below the 6,684 fast average. The KOSPI closed Monday 12 October down 3.65% at 6,384.24 after Samsung Electronics and SK hynix each fell more than 4%. Foreign investors sold for a 10th straight session, and price rejected the falling triangle line before breaking its averages. The preferred approach is a rally short at 6,650 with a stop at 6,760 and targets at 6,200 and 6,000.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 6,000
- Support 1
- 6,200
- Resistance 1
- 6,684
- Resistance 2
- 6,853
Daily chart structure
- Price was rejected at the falling triangle line near 7,000 in late September and has dropped below the 6,684.45 fast average; the rising base of the triangle near 5,750 is the larger support.
- The averages stack above price at 6,684.45, 6,853.52 and 7,282.75; the 6,200 area, the September range low, is the first support.
- RSI reads 36.41, below its signal line at 50.62; foreigners sold about 2.02 trillion won on Monday and nearly 10 trillion won in October.
KOSPI trade setup
Short Medium conviction- Entry
- 6,650
- Stop loss
- 6,760
- Target 1
- 6,200
- Target 2
- 6,000
Risk 110, or 1.7%. Reward:risk 4.1 to target 1, 5.9 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a rally back under the 6,684 fast average, which is the nearest resistance after Monday’s gap down. The stop is above that average, and the targets are the 6,200 September range low and the 6,000 round number.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 6,760. A hot US CPI print would add to foreign outflows; a sharp reversal in Samsung and SK hynix on policy support is the main risk.
FTSE 100 | UK100
FTSE 100 Analysis: 10,725 Resistance Tests a Rebound Above the Averages
10,656.28 +104.24 (+0.99%) day Day range 10,549.64–10,656.28
Outlook: Bias is neutral to bullish while the FTSE 100 holds the 10,615 average cluster. The index rose 0.99% to 10,656.28 on Monday 12 October, closing at its high and back above the 10,623 and 10,615 averages after a drop below the rising trendline in late September. The preferred approach is a pullback long at 10,620 with a stop at 10,540 and targets at 10,725 and 10,800, sized for low conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 10,400
- Support 1
- 10,615
- Resistance 1
- 10,725
- Resistance 2
- 10,800
Daily chart structure
- Price broke the rising trendline from March at the end of September, fell to a low near 10,370 and has since recovered above the broken line area; the July high near 11,000 is far above.
- Price is above the 10,623.12 and 10,615.78 averages and below 10,724.67, which is the nearest resistance and sits on the underside of the broken trendline.
- RSI reads 52.16, above its signal line at 41.68; UK 10-year yields at about 5.44% are a headwind, so a close back under 10,615 would cancel the rebound.
FTSE 100 trade setup
Long Low conviction- Entry
- 10,620
- Stop loss
- 10,540
- Target 1
- 10,725
- Target 2
- 10,800
Risk 80, or 0.8%. Reward:risk 1.3 to target 1, 2.3 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a pullback into the 10,615–10,623 average cluster. The stop is below Monday’s 10,549.64 low, and the targets are the 10,725 average and the 10,800 September swing area.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 10,540. A hot US CPI print on Wednesday 14 October, or another rise in gilt yields, is the main risk.
CAC 40 | FR40
CAC 40 Analysis: Oversold Bounce Meets 7,985 Resistance Inside a Downtrend
7,832.89 +29.55 (+0.38%) day Day range 7,806.49–7,850.33
Outlook: Bias is bearish below the 7,985 fast average. The CAC 40 rose 0.38% to 7,832.89 on Monday 12 October, a bounce from a low near 7,680 last week, but it remains below all three averages after breaking the rising channel in August. The preferred approach is a rally short at 7,985 with a stop at 8,070 and targets at 7,800 and 7,680.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 7,680
- Support 1
- 7,800
- Resistance 1
- 7,985
- Resistance 2
- 8,263
Daily chart structure
- The index broke the rising channel from March in late August and fell about 1,000 points from the August high near 8,750 to a low near 7,680.
- The fast average at 7,985.26 caps the bounce, with the other averages higher at 8,262.81 and 8,305.24, all sloping down.
- RSI reads 36.05, just above its signal line at 32.54, an oversold bounce; French 10-year yields rose about 5 basis points to 4.896% on Monday.
CAC 40 trade setup
Short Medium conviction- Entry
- 7,985
- Stop loss
- 8,070
- Target 1
- 7,800
- Target 2
- 7,680
Risk 85, or 1.1%. Reward:risk 2.2 to target 1, 3.6 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a rally into the 7,985 fast average, the first line of resistance above the bounce. The stop is above that average, and the targets are the 7,800 level and last week’s 7,680 low.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 8,070. A soft US CPI print that lifts European equities, or a fall in French yields, is the main risk.
Dow Jones | US30
Dow Jones Analysis: Triangle Base Holds as Price Tests 52,168 Resistance
51,858.18 +198.00 (+0.38%) day Day range 51,724.17–51,933.19
Outlook: Bias is bullish while the Dow holds the 51,513 fast average. The Dow rose 0.38% to 51,858.18 on Monday 12 October and was the only major US index in the green as investors rotated into value stocks while tech fell. The preferred approach is a pullback long at 51,550 with a stop at 51,150 and targets at 52,168 and 52,626.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 50,600
- Support 1
- 51,513
- Resistance 1
- 52,168
- Resistance 2
- 52,626
Daily chart structure
- Price rebounded in October from the rising triangle base near 50,600; the falling upper line from the August high meets the 52,626 average near the apex.
- The fast average at 51,513.70 is support, and price is below the 52,168.46 and 52,626.16 averages; a close above 52,626 would break the triangle.
- RSI reads 50.66, above its signal line at 41.02; bank earnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs on Tuesday 13 October are a direct test for the Dow’s financial names.
Dow Jones trade setup
Long Medium conviction- Entry
- 51,550
- Stop loss
- 51,150
- Target 1
- 52,168
- Target 2
- 52,626
Risk 400, or 0.8%. Reward:risk 1.5 to target 1, 2.7 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a pullback to the 51,513 fast average and Monday’s open area. The stop is below Monday’s 51,724 low and the average, and the targets are the 52,168 average and the 52,626 triangle line.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 51,150. Weak bank guidance on 13 October or a hot US CPI print on 14 October is the main risk.
S&P 500 | US500
S&P 500 Analysis: Channel Support at 7,714 Underpins a Hold Near Records
7,805.47 −6.07 (−0.08%) day Day range 7,801.23–7,821.67
Outlook: Bias is bullish while the S&P 500 holds the 7,714 fast average. The index eased 0.08% to 7,805.47 on Monday 12 October after a record-setting week, with tech weakness offsetting gains in value stocks. The preferred approach is a pullback long at 7,720 with a stop at 7,660 and targets at 7,850 and 8,000.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 7,587
- Support 1
- 7,714
- Resistance 1
- 7,850
- Resistance 2
- 8,000
Daily chart structure
- Price trades in the upper half of the ascending channel from mid-July, with the lower boundary near 7,590 and the upper boundary near 8,085; the early-October high near 7,850 is the first resistance.
- Price is above the 7,714.05, 7,703.23 and 7,587.37 averages, all rising, so the nearest supports are 7,714 then the channel base.
- RSI reads 59.21, above its signal line at 55.31; Nvidia is down about 1% and the Nasdaq about 0.4%, so tech weakness is the main drag on the index.
S&P 500 trade setup
Long Medium conviction- Entry
- 7,720
- Stop loss
- 7,660
- Target 1
- 7,850
- Target 2
- 8,000
Risk 60, or 0.8%. Reward:risk 2.2 to target 1, 4.7 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a pullback to the 7,714 fast average and 7,703 mid average. The stop is below both averages, and the targets are the early-October high near 7,850 and the 8,000 round number.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 7,660. Hot US CPI on Wednesday 14 October, weak bank results on Tuesday 13 October or a rise in the 10-year yield above 5.3% is the main risk.
Conclusion
US CPI on Wednesday 14 October at 16:30 GST sets two paths. A hotter print than +0.2% core m/m favours the S&P 500 at 7,714 then 7,587, the Dow at 51,513 then 50,600 and further KOSPI weakness toward 6,200. A softer print favours the S&P 500 at 7,850 then 8,000 and the Dow at 52,168 then 52,626. The S&P 500, Dow, KOSPI and CAC 40 setups carry medium conviction; the Nikkei 225 and FTSE 100 carry low conviction.
Treat every level as conditional and wait for 1-hour closes beyond a stop before judging an idea invalid. Size positions smaller into the 16:30 GST release and Tuesday’s bank earnings, and allow for a wider gap risk in the Nikkei at Tuesday’s reopen and in the KOSPI after a 3.65% fall. Our approach is to trade the levels, not the headlines.
Trade the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei 225 and other indices with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the S&P 500 outlook for 12 October 2026?
Bias is bullish while the S&P 500 holds the 7,714 fast average. Price eased 0.08% to 7,805.47 after a record week. The preferred idea is a pullback long at 7,720 with a stop at 7,660 and targets at 7,850 and 8,000.
What time is US CPI released today in GST?
US CPI for September is not released today. It is due Wednesday 14 October at 16:30 GST (12:30 GMT). Consensus is about +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y for the headline, with core at +0.2% m/m, before the Fed meeting on 27–28 October.
Why did the KOSPI fall 3.65% on 12 October?
The KOSPI closed at 6,384.24 as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix each fell more than 4% and foreign investors sold for a 10th straight session. Bias is bearish below 6,684, with a rally short at 6,650, a stop at 6,760 and targets at 6,200 and 6,000.
Was the Nikkei 225 open on 12 October 2026?
No. Tokyo cash equities were closed for Sports Day and reopen on Tuesday 13 October. The Nikkei 225 last closed at 69,030.70 on Friday. The setup is a pullback long at 67,600 with a stop at 66,300 and targets at 71,000 and 72,500.
What are today’s key levels for the FTSE 100, CAC 40 and Dow Jones?
The FTSE 100 trades at 10,656.28 with support at 10,615 and resistance at 10,725. The CAC 40 trades at 7,832.89 with support at 7,800 and resistance at 7,985. The Dow trades at 51,858.18 with support at 51,513 and resistance at 52,168.
