Dollar Holds Near Two-Month Lows and Bund Yields Climb as the US-Iran Truce Deadline Passes and the DAX Slips to a Two-Week Low | Technical Analysis – European Session | 18-08-2026
Dollar Holds Near Two-Month Lows and Bund Yields Climb as the US-Iran Truce Deadline Passes and the DAX Slips to a Two-Week Low
EUR/USD · GBP/USD · EUR/GBP · Silver · Crude Oil · DAX 40 · EU 20Y Yield · XRP · ETH/USD — live coverage through the European trading session
“A soft Dollar is still the dominant theme for EUR/USD and especially GBP/USD this morning, but the real story in Europe is the bond market: rising Bund yields on the back of the expiring US-Iran truce are doing to the DAX what they did to the Nikkei in Asia, while Crude presses higher and Silver takes a breather near $65.”
Tuesday’s European session opened with the currency complex still firmly in “sell the Dollar” mode, extending the theme that dominated the Asian hours: the Greenback remains on the back foot with the Dollar Index holding below the 100.00 handle as a run of underwhelming US data keeps the case for a near-term Fed move thin. EUR/USD is consolidating just under 1.1580 near its best levels since June, while GBP/USD has pushed to its strongest level in more than three months near 1.3540 as traders look ahead to Tuesday’s UK labour market data and Wednesday’s inflation print, both of which will shape whether the Bank of England’s current wait-and-see stance holds into year-end.
The more consequential move for European markets is happening in fixed income: Germany’s 10-year Bund yield has pushed back toward the 3.15%-3.20% area and the 20-year sector has climbed in sympathy as the formal expiry of the 60-day US-Iran interim arrangement keeps a fresh risk premium priced into long-dated paper, echoing the same dynamic that hit Japanese government bonds and the Nikkei overnight. That yield backdrop, combined with a firmer Crude Oil complex, is weighing on the DAX 40, which is down for a second consecutive session and testing support near 26,200. Silver is pulling back modestly from last week’s highs but remains comfortably above $64, while XRP and Ethereum trade with a cautious, range-bound tone as crypto markets await clearer signals from this week’s FOMC minutes and the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium.
European Market News — Live Now, 18 August 2026
Top-moving headlines shaping the European session, updated through the morning
US-Iran 60-Day Truce Formally Expires as Hormuz Standoff Continues
The interim arrangement between Washington and Tehran expires today with no breakthrough, as the US signals it could maintain an indefinite naval posture around the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump rules out an extension, sending Crude Oil more than 3% higher since Friday and keeping Gold and Bund yields bid.
GeopoliticsDollar Pinned Near Two-Month Lows Ahead of FOMC Minutes
The Dollar Index remains below the 100.00 mark near its softest levels since June as traders await Wednesday’s FOMC July meeting minutes and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the Jackson Hole symposium later this week, keeping EUR/USD and GBP/USD both underpinned.
MacroBund Yields Climb, DAX 40 Slips to Two-Week Low
Germany’s 10-year yield has pushed back toward 3.15%-3.20% with the 20-year sector rising in sympathy as the expiring US-Iran arrangement keeps a geopolitical premium in long-dated paper, pressuring the DAX 40 down for a second straight session toward 26,200, led by Infineon and Siemens Energy.
Equities & RatesSterling Hits Three-Month High Ahead of UK Jobs and CPI
GBP/USD is holding near 1.3540, its strongest level since May, as investors position for Tuesday’s UK labour market report and Wednesday’s inflation data, pressing EUR/GBP back toward its multi-month lows near 0.8548.
FXCrude Oil Presses Toward $85 as Silver Eases From Recent Highs
WTI Crude is trading near $84.50-$85.00 a barrel, extending its rally on Hormuz supply-risk headlines, while Silver has pulled back modestly to trade near $65 an ounce after last week’s push toward $66.50, still up sharply over the past month on a softer Dollar.
CommoditiesXRP Defends $1 Support, Ethereum Tests Key EMA Resistance
XRP continues to hold the closely watched $1.00 psychological level after a rough month of ETF outflows, while Ethereum is firmer near $1,900-$1,910 but remains capped below the 100-day EMA cluster around $1,918-$1,922 ahead of this week’s Fed catalysts.
CryptoLive · Updated mid-session, Tuesday 18 August 2026
European Session Economic Calendar — 18 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the European trading day (times in CET / GMT as noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇷/🇺🇸Today, formally expiring | US-Iran 60-Day Interim Arrangement Expires | US signals it could sustain an indefinite naval posture around the Strait of Hormuz; Trump rules out an extension | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key wildcard for Crude, Gold, Bund yields and broader European risk sentiment through the session |
| 🇪🇺Morning session | Germany 10Y / 20Y Bund Yields | 10-year yield near 3.15%-3.20%; 20-year sector rising in sympathy on Hormuz-driven risk premium | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary driver of the DAX 40’s underperformance versus a firmer broader European tape |
| 🇬🇧07:00 BST / 06:00 GMT | UK Labour Market Report (Jul) | Opening data point of a busy UK week, ahead of Wednesday’s CPI release | 🟢 MEDIUM | A firm print would reinforce Sterling’s three-month-high tone and pressure EUR/GBP lower still |
| 🇩🇪Ongoing | DAX 40 / German Rate-Sensitive Names | Infineon, Siemens Energy and Siemens leading Monday’s decline as yields and oil both climb | 🟢 MEDIUM | Keeps the DAX pressured toward the 26,200 support zone into the European close |
| 🇱🇭Ongoing | Israel Strikes on Lebanon / Hezbollah | Continuing fallout from recent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon | 🔴 CRITICAL | Adds to the geopolitical premium already priced into Crude, Gold and European yields |
| 🇺🇸Wed 19 Aug (this week) | FOMC July Meeting Minutes | Minutes from the July 29 meeting where the FOMC held rates, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate hike | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key swing factor for the Dollar, and therefore EUR/USD and GBP/USD, through midweek |
| 🇺🇸Later this week | Jackson Hole Symposium — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh | Markets look for fresh guidance on the rate path from the Fed Chair’s remarks | 🔴 CRITICAL | A dovish tone would extend Dollar softness; a hawkish surprise risks a sharp reversal |
| 💼Tue-Thu (this week) | US Big-Box Retail Earnings | Home Depot, Target, Walmart and Lowe’s report quarterly results | 🟢 MEDIUM | Key read on US consumer health that will carry into the US afternoon handover |
European Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s nine key instruments
EUR/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/USD is trading firm near 1.1571, close to its best levels since June, as the Dollar Index holds below the 100.00 mark on fading Fed rate-hike bets. Eurozone growth has surprised to the upside, with Q2 GDP expanding 0.4%, its strongest pace since early 2025, while inflation expectations near 2.4% keep the ECB path in focus into Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.
Technical Outlook
Today’s range of 1.1564-1.1586 sits comfortably inside the 52-week range of 1.1325-1.2079. A confirmed break above 1.1586 would expose the 1.1620-1.1640 resistance band, while a slip back below 1.1520 would risk a retest of the 1.1480 support zone.
GBP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Sterling has climbed to around 1.3540, its strongest level since early May, as traders balance a softer Dollar against a busy UK data week. Markets are fully pricing a 25-basis-point BoE hike in December, with Tuesday’s labour market report and Wednesday’s inflation print seen as the key swing factors for that view.
Technical Outlook
Cable’s range of 1.3531-1.3556 sits well inside the 52-week range of 1.3009-1.3869. A confirmed break above 1.3563 would expose the 1.3600 psychological level, while a slip back below 1.3480 would risk a pullback toward the 1.3430 area.
EUR/GBP
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/GBP is trading near 0.8548, pressured as Sterling’s three-month-high tone against the Dollar spills over into the cross ahead of Tuesday’s UK jobs data and Wednesday’s CPI. A firm set of UK releases would reinforce market pricing for a December BoE hike and add further downside pressure on the pair.
Technical Outlook
The cross remains inside its recent multi-week range, with a break below 0.8520 exposing the 0.8500 psychological level, while a recovery above 0.8580 would ease the immediate bearish pressure and open a retest of 0.8600.
Silver
Fundamental Backdrop
Silver near $65.00 an ounce is consolidating after last week’s push toward $66.50, still up more than 17% over the past month as a softer Dollar and fading Fed hike bets support the precious-metals complex. Strong industrial demand from solar-panel production and grid investment, alongside a 62.5% year-on-year jump in Chinese silver-ore imports in June, continues to provide structural support.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating within a $64.00-$66.70 range after last week’s volatility. A confirmed break above $66.70 would expose the $67.50 zone, while a slip below $62.50 would risk a deeper pullback toward the $60.00 area.
Crude Oil (WTI)
Fundamental Backdrop
WTI Crude near $84.60 a barrel is extending its rally as the 60-day US-Iran interim arrangement formally expires with no breakthrough, and Washington signals it could sustain an indefinite naval posture around the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping activity through the strait slowed sharply over the weekend, though covert flows from Middle Eastern producers have so far limited the scale of the supply shock.
Technical Outlook
Price has cleared last week’s consolidation range and is testing the $85.00 area. A confirmed break above $85.00 would expose the $88.00 zone, while a slip back below $81.00 would risk a retest of the $79.50 support area.
DAX 40
Fundamental Backdrop
The DAX 40 near 26,200 is down for a second consecutive session as rising Bund yields and a firmer Crude Oil complex, both driven by the expiring US-Iran arrangement, weigh on rate-sensitive names. Infineon, Siemens Energy and Siemens have led Monday’s declines, while Deutsche Post, BASF and Deutsche Telekom have provided some offsetting support.
Technical Outlook
Price remains close to its all-time-high region despite the pullback, with the index still up 8.74% over the past 12 months. A confirmed break below 26,200 would expose the 25,800 zone, while a recovery above 26,450 would ease near-term bearish pressure and open a retest of 26,570.
EU 20Y Yield
Fundamental Backdrop
The euro area’s long end, tracked here via the German 20-year Bund yield near 3.58%, is climbing in sympathy with the 10-year, which has pushed back toward 3.15%-3.20% as the formal expiry of the 60-day US-Iran interim arrangement keeps a fresh risk premium priced into European rates. Rising oil prices add an additional inflationary tailwind that keeps the long end offered.
Technical Outlook
Yields remain well below the multi-year highs seen earlier this year but have reversed a recent dip toward 3.45%. A confirmed move above 3.65% would expose the 3.75% area, while a drop back under 3.45% would ease the current upward pressure on the long end.
XRP
Fundamental Backdrop
XRP near $1.00 is holding the closely watched psychological support level after touching a 52-week low near $0.99 last week, with weak spot-ETF inflows offsetting stronger on-chain activity and continued attention on Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin and US crypto-regulation developments. Traders are watching whether buyers can keep defending the $1 mark into this week’s Fed catalysts.
Technical Outlook
Price has traded in a tight $0.988-$1.007 range over the past 24 hours. A confirmed break above $1.05 would open the door to $1.08, while a sustained close below $1.00 would risk renewed selling pressure toward $0.92.
ETH/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Ethereum near $1,905 holds a neutral-to-slightly-bullish tone, trading above both the 50-day EMA near $1,868 and the SuperTrend support near $1,769, yet remains capped beneath the 100-day EMA around $1,918-$1,922 and well under the longer-term 200-day EMA near $2,108. Spot-ETF flows have turned modestly negative over the past week, tempering the pace of any recovery.
Technical Outlook
A decisive move above the $1,918-$1,922 barrier would improve short-term sentiment and bring the $1,950-$2,000 region into focus. On the downside, the $1,865-$1,885 zone remains the key area to hold, given the cluster of the 20-day and 50-day EMAs there.
European Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why are Bund yields climbing even as the Dollar stays soft?
Why is the DAX 40 falling while EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both firm?
What’s driving Sterling to its best level in over three months?
Why is Crude Oil rallying while Silver pulls back?
What should traders watch for the rest of the European session and into the US handover?
European Session Summary — Tuesday, 18 August 2026 (Live Update)
Tuesday’s European session is trading with a Dollar-soft, yields-up tone as markets digest the formal expiry of the 60-day US-Iran interim arrangement alongside a still-dovish repricing of the Federal Reserve outlook. The Dollar Index remains pinned near two-month lows below 100.00, keeping EUR/USD firm near 1.1571 and GBP/USD at its best level in more than three months near 1.3540 ahead of this week’s UK jobs and inflation data, which has in turn pressed EUR/GBP back toward 0.8548. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield has climbed back toward 3.15%-3.20%, with the 20-year sector near 3.58% rising in sympathy as the Hormuz standoff keeps a fresh risk premium in long-dated European paper, weighing on the DAX 40, down for a second straight session near 26,200, a level not seen since 6 August. Crude Oil near $84.60 is extending its rally on the truce expiry, keeping Gold and Silver underpinned even as Silver eases modestly to $65.00 an ounce after last week’s push toward $66.50. In digital assets, XRP near $1.00 continues to defend its key psychological support after a rough month, while Ethereum near $1,905 is firmer but remains capped below the 100-day EMA cluster near $1,918-$1,922. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Crude Oil dips toward $83.00, targeting $88.00 — the expiring US-Iran arrangement and an indefinite Hormuz naval posture are a powerful tailwind, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or a resumption of covert Gulf flows remains a real source of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: EUR/USD buy dips toward 1.1520, stop 1.1480, target 1.1620 — broad Dollar softness is a genuine tailwind, though a hawkish surprise from Wednesday’s FOMC minutes is a real source of two-way risk. GBP/USD buy dips toward 1.3480, stop 1.3430, target 1.3600 — hawkish BoE repricing is a genuine tailwind, though a soft UK jobs or CPI print is a real source of two-way risk. EUR/GBP sell rallies toward 0.8580, stop 0.8615, target 0.8500 — Sterling’s relative strength is a genuine headwind for the cross, though a weak UK data surprise is a real source of two-way risk. Silver buy dips toward $64.00, stop $62.50, target $67.50 — a softer Dollar and strong industrial demand are a genuine tailwind, though near-term profit-taking is a real source of two-way risk. Crude Oil buy dips toward $83.00, stop $81.00, target $88.00 — the Hormuz standoff is a genuine tailwind, though covert Gulf flows are a real source of two-way risk. DAX 40 sell rallies toward 26,450, stop 26,650, target 25,800 — rising Bund yields and oil are a genuine headwind, though resilient earnings momentum is a real source of two-way risk. EU 20Y Yield buy dips toward 3.52%, stop 3.45%, target 3.75% — the Hormuz-driven inflation premium is a genuine tailwind, though a swift de-escalation is a real source of two-way risk. XRP buy dips toward $0.96, stop $0.92, target $1.08 — a defended $1 support is a tentative tailwind, though weak ETF flows are a real source of two-way risk. ETH/USD buy dips toward $1,860, stop $1,800, target $1,980 — resilient EMA support is a genuine tailwind, though the 100-day EMA cap near $1,920 is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are any fresh Hormuz or Israel-Hezbollah headlines, the UK labour market report, German 20-year Bund supply, and the run-up to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply into the US handover.
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