Dollar Near 3-Month Low as Silver Holds, FTSE Rallies and Crypto Extends Gains | Technical Analysis – European Session | 21-08-2026
Dollar Stays Pinned Near a Three-Month Low as Flash PMIs Beat Forecasts, Silver Holds Near $69.90, the FTSE 100 Turns Higher on a Mining Rally, and Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Extend Their Treasury-Buyback Rally Deep Into London
EUR/CHF · GBP/USD · Silver · Natural Gas · FTSE 100 · EU 10Y · XRP · ETH/USD — live coverage through the European trading session
European Market News — Live Now, Ongoing Session, 21 August 2026
Top-moving headlines shaping the live European session, updated through the London morning
Dollar Index Stays Near Three-Month Low as Flash Eurozone and German PMIs Beat Forecasts
The US Dollar Index is struggling to stage a rebound and remains just above the three-month low of roughly 98.20-98.50 it set this week, as investors continue to digest this week’s US Treasury decision to boost long-term bond buybacks. Preliminary August Manufacturing and Services PMI readings from Germany and the Eurozone have now beaten expectations, with the Eurozone Composite PMI reaching a nine-month high of 52.1 and Manufacturing hitting a 54-month high of 53.4, reinforcing September ECB hike bets. EUR/USD holds near 1.1700-1.1708 and GBP/USD near 1.3650 as the Dollar’s broader downtrend stays intact, with the UK and US flash PMI releases still to come into the London and New York handover.
Central Banks & FXSilver Holds Near $69.90 an Ounce for the First Time in Over a Decade as Gold Hits Its Highest Level Since June
Silver is trading near $69.90 an ounce, up around 2.7% on the day and on pace for a third straight weekly gain, up more than 16% over the past month, as US Dollar weakness and receding near-term Fed hike bets continue to drive precious-metals demand. Gold is tracking the move higher, trading near $4,550-4,563, its highest level since early June, and building on its recent breakout above the technically significant 200-day moving average, with TD Securities flagging the combination of Treasury support at the long end and a Fed willing to look past higher energy prices as broadly constructive for bullion into the weekend.
Precious MetalsGerman Bund Yields Hold Near 15-Year Highs as Europe’s Bond-Market Repricing Continues
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield is holding near 3.24%, just off Wednesday’s high above 3.25% — its highest level since March 2011 — as fiscal-sustainability concerns across Germany, France, the UK, Japan and the US keep long-end government bond yields under sustained upward pressure. Markets continue to price in more than a 90% probability of an ECB hike at its September meeting, with the deposit rate seen reaching 2.76% by March 2027 from its current 2.25%, a hawkish repricing that is providing a genuine underpinning for the Euro even as it weighs on European sovereign debt prices.
Rates & BondsGBP/USD Holds Near 1.3650 Despite Weaker UK Retail Sales as Traders Turn to Flash PMI Data
The UK’s Office for National Statistics reported Retail Sales fell 0.5% month-on-month in July, reversing June’s 0.7% increase, yet GBP/USD showed little immediate reaction and continues to trade with modest gains near 1.3650 in the European morning. The Pound’s resilience reflects persistent broad-based Dollar weakness following this week’s US Treasury buyback announcement rather than domestic strength, with attention now shifting to the UK’s own preliminary August PMI release for a fresher read on second-half momentum.
UK DataNatural Gas Extends Slide as Record US Production Meets a Larger-Than-Expected Storage Build
US Natural Gas futures are falling for a second consecutive session, dragged from a session high near $2.81 to a low near $2.74, as average Lower-48 production climbs to a fresh record of 111.6 billion cubic feet per day in August. The latest EIA weekly report showed a larger-than-expected 36 Bcf storage injection, widening the surplus to 198 Bcf, or 6.7%, above the five-year norm, while a cooler revised US weather outlook has further sapped demand-side support for the contract into the weekend.
EnergyBitcoin Tops $77,000 as Ethereum and XRP Extend a Rally That Has Added Roughly a Quarter to Both This Week
Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are all extending the rally sparked by this week’s US Treasury buyback announcement, with Bitcoin extending a fifth straight day of gains above $77,000 on $606 million of fresh spot ETF inflows — the biggest daily haul since May — and bulls still eyeing $80,000. Ethereum is approaching $2,400-$2,500 resistance, and XRP is the session’s standout, surging more than 30% on the week to trade above $1.35 after a fresh short squeeze liquidated over $1.25 billion in leveraged short positions. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has jumped to 72 from 62 the day before, underscoring the rapidly improving risk appetite.
CryptoLive · Ongoing session · Updated through the European morning, Friday 21 August 2026
European Session Economic Calendar — 21 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the European trading day
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪07:30 GMT – Released | Germany Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI (Aug) | Beat forecasts, with manufacturing among the strongest contributors to August’s industrial recovery | 🔴 CRITICAL | The beat reinforces September ECB hike bets and is supportive for the Euro |
| 🇪🇺08:00 GMT – Released | Eurozone Flash Composite PMI (Aug) | Actual 52.1 vs ~51.9 forecast (Jul: 52.0); Manufacturing jumped to 53.4, a 54-month high; Services flat at 51.7 | 🔴 CRITICAL | A clear beat, marking the strongest eurozone growth signal in nine months and lifting EUR/USD and Bund yields |
| 🇬🇧07:00 GMT | UK Retail Sales (Jul) | Actual -0.5% m/m (prior +0.7%); already released, GBP largely unmoved | 🟢 MEDIUM | A soft print that GBP/USD has shrugged off, with Dollar weakness the dominant driver |
| 🇬🇧08:30 GMT | UK Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI (Aug) | Both expected to hold broadly steady after a resilient summer for UK activity | 🔴 CRITICAL | The clearest near-term catalyst for GBP/USD and the FTSE 100 into the New York open |
| 🇩🇪Ongoing | Germany 10-Year Bund Yield Near 15-Year High | Holding near 3.24%, just off Wednesday’s 3.25%+ peak, the highest since March 2011 | 🔴 CRITICAL | Structural fiscal-sustainability concerns keep a floor under European long-end yields |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | US-Iran Sanctions Escalation Expected Monday | DBS flags a tightening of US sanctions on Iran due to be announced Monday | 🔴 CRITICAL | A geopolitical risk that could lift US yields and the Dollar if it firms inflation expectations |
| 🇺🇸13:45-13:59 GMT | US Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI (Aug) | Manufacturing seen steady near 53.9, Services easing to ~54.0 from July’s 54.6 | 🟢 MEDIUM | The session’s last major data point before the New York close and the weekend |
| 🇺🇸Aug 27-29 | Jackson Hole Symposium — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh | Warsh delivers his first keynote as Fed Chair on Thursday, 27 August | 🔴 CRITICAL | Seen as the single biggest swing factor for the Dollar and global risk appetite into September |
European Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
EUR/CHF
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/CHF is trading near 0.9336, comfortably within its 52-week range of 0.8975-0.9456 and firmer within today’s 0.9316-0.9343 band, as the pair continues to reflect a regime change highlighted by strategists through August: the Franc is no longer trading as a reliable safe haven against the Euro. Markets are pricing roughly a 90% probability of an ECB hike at its September meeting against an SNB still frozen at 0.00%, a rate-gap dynamic reinforced by Swiss inflation falling to just 0.4% in July, its lowest level in months, even as Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices continue to feed eurozone inflation expectations rather than driving classic Franc safe-haven flows.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal leans constructive, with the pair holding above its 50-day average near 0.9260 after climbing from the low-0.92 area earlier in August. A confirmed break above 0.9350 would expose the 0.9420 zone and put the 52-week high near 0.9456 back in view, while a slip below the 0.9280 pivot risks a deeper retracement toward 0.9200, with today’s German and Eurozone flash PMIs and any fresh SNB commentary the clearest sources of two-way risk into the New York handover.
GBP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3650, close to its best levels of the week, after the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported Retail Sales fell 0.5% month-on-month in July, reversing June’s 0.7% gain. The pair showed little immediate reaction to the miss, underscoring that the Dollar’s broad-based weakness following this week’s US Treasury buyback announcement remains the dominant driver of the cross rather than domestic UK data; the Dollar Index itself is struggling to rebound from the three-month low it set near 98.50 on Thursday.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal is rated Buy, with the pair extending its recovery well within its 12-month range of 1.3021 to 1.3824. A confirmed break above 1.3660 would expose the 1.3820 zone and put the 12-month high near 1.3824 back in play, while a pullback below the 1.3580 pivot risks a retest of 1.3480, with today’s UK flash PMI release and the US Dollar’s reaction to the broader flash-PMI slate the clearest sources of two-way risk into the New York session.
Silver
Fundamental Backdrop
Silver is trading near $69.90 an ounce, its highest level in more than a decade, up around 2.7% on the day and more than 16% over the past month as Dollar weakness and receding near-term Fed hike bets continue to drive precious-metals demand. The gold-silver ratio sits near 66.9, holding the compression that silver’s late-summer strength has carved out, with the metal benefiting from both its traditional safe-haven role and steady industrial demand from solar and electronics manufacturers even as gold trades at its own highest level since early June.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal is rated Strong Buy, with the metal extending its August advance well within its 52-week range of $36.97 to $121.58. A confirmed break above $70.00 would expose the $71.50 zone, while a pullback below the $66.50 pivot risks a retest of $64.50, with today’s US Dollar reaction to the flash PMI slate and any fresh Fed commentary ahead of Jackson Hole the clearest sources of two-way risk into the weekend.
Natural Gas
Fundamental Backdrop
US Natural Gas futures are trading near $2.75/MMBtu, down from a session high near $2.81 as the weight of an oversupplied domestic market reasserts itself. Average Lower-48 production has reached 111.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, exceeding July’s monthly record of 110.7 bcfd, while the latest EIA weekly report showed a larger-than-expected 36 Bcf storage injection that pushed total stockpiles to 3,153 Bcf, widening the surplus to 198 Bcf, or 6.7%, above the five-year norm. The EIA’s own short-term outlook projects inventories reaching a record 3,985 Bcf by the end of October, a trajectory that strips away any winter-scarcity premium bulls might otherwise lean on.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal has turned Sell after Thursday’s 2.88% decline snapped a brief two-session advance, with the contract holding within its 52-week range of $2.49 to $6.01. A confirmed break below $2.70 would expose the $2.55 zone, while a bounce back above the $2.90 pivot risks a retest of $3.05, with any shift in the US weather outlook or a surprise storage figure next Thursday the clearest sources of two-way risk into the weekend.
FTSE 100
Fundamental Backdrop
The FTSE 100 is trading near 10,770-10,773, up around 0.2% in morning trading after closing Thursday at 10,748.16, with mining stocks among the strongest performers as gold climbs toward $4,563 and silver holds near $69.90. Fresnillo and Antofagasta are among the notable gainers, alongside support from UK banking stocks, even as a weaker UK Retail Sales print and a firmer Pound — typically a headwind for the benchmark’s heavily international, dollar-earning constituents — cap the scale of the advance. Elevated Brent crude above $93-94 a barrel and the broader rise in global bond yields remain a background risk, even as a recovery in global bond markets following this week’s US Treasury intervention offers some offsetting support.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal has firmed to Mildly Bullish, with the index consolidating well within its 52-week range of 9,093.18 to 10,989.45 after last week’s pullback from record territory. A confirmed break back above 10,850 would reopen the path toward the 52-week high near 10,989, while a slip below the 10,660 pivot risks a retest of 10,560, with today’s UK flash PMI release and any fresh Strait of Hormuz headlines the clearest sources of two-way risk into the New York open.
EU 10Y
Fundamental Backdrop
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield is trading near 3.24%, a one-basis-point pullback from the previous session but still just off Wednesday’s 3.25%+ peak, its highest level since March 2011. The move is part of a broader bond-market repricing across the US, Europe, the UK and Japan, driven by escalating fiscal-sustainability concerns and fading hopes for a swift resolution to Middle East tensions, which has pushed oil prices higher and revived inflation worries. Markets are pricing more than a 90% probability of an ECB hike in September, with the deposit rate seen at 2.76% by March 2027 from 2.25% currently, a genuinely hawkish repricing that continues to underpin the structural climb in long-end European yields.
Technical Outlook
The yield’s daily signal is rated Buy (yields higher, Bund prices lower), holding comfortably above its 4-week gain of nearly 13 basis points. A confirmed push back above 3.27% would expose the 3.40% zone, while a pullback in yield below the 3.15% pivot risks a deeper retracement toward 3.05%, with today’s German and Eurozone flash PMIs and Jackson Hole positioning into next week the clearest sources of two-way risk through the session.
XRP
Fundamental Backdrop
XRP is trading near $1.35, up more than 30% on the week and the clear standout among major tokens as the Treasury-buyback-driven crypto rally that began Wednesday extends deep into the European morning. A fresh short squeeze liquidated more than $1.25 billion in leveraged short positions across the crypto market over the past 24 hours, while whale addresses have accumulated roughly 300 million XRP, tightening exchange supply; the move is further reinforced by this week’s White House meeting between President Trump and crypto executives pushing the CLARITY Act forward, with FXStreet analysts flagging $1.50 as bulls’ next objective should the current pace of gains hold.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal is rated Strong Buy, with the token clearing its 50-day and 100-day moving averages on the back of this week’s surge. A confirmed break above $1.38 would expose the $1.50 zone, while a pullback below the $1.20 pivot risks a retest of $1.10, with Bitcoin’s ability to hold its own advance toward $80,000 and any fresh CLARITY Act headlines the clearest sources of two-way risk through the session.
ETH/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Ethereum is trading near $2,400, approaching key resistance last seen in early May, as it continues to participate in the broader Treasury-buyback-driven risk rally that has carried Bitcoin above $77,000 and liquidated more than $1.25 billion in bearish crypto positioning over the past 24 hours alone. The move is being reinforced by continued ETF-inflow momentum ($221 million into ether funds on Thursday) and fading near-term Fed hike bets, both consistent with the falling-real-yields backdrop that has broadened the risk-on bid across digital assets into the European session; FXStreet’s latest coverage flags $2,500 as the next level bulls are targeting.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal is rated Strong Buy, with ETH holding well within its 52-week range of $1,388.12 to $4,955.90 after this week’s sharp advance. A confirmed break above $2,400 would expose the $2,500 zone, while a pullback below the $2,260 pivot risks a retest of $2,130, with Bitcoin’s ability to hold its advance and any reversal in the recent Dollar weakness the clearest sources of two-way risk through the session.
European Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why is the Dollar still weak even after Wednesday’s Treasury-buyback relief has largely faded from bonds?
Why are German Bund yields holding near 15-year highs even as the ECB is expected to keep hiking?
Why did Silver clear $69 while Natural Gas is falling on the same day?
Why is the FTSE 100 rallying today when a firmer Pound is normally a headwind for the index?
What should traders watch for the rest of the European session and into the US handover?
European Session Summary — Friday, 21 August 2026 (Live Update)
Friday’s European session is dominated by a US Dollar that remains stuck near a three-month low after flash Eurozone and German PMIs beat forecasts, with EUR/USD holding near 1.1700-1.1708 and GBP/USD near 1.3650 despite a weaker UK Retail Sales print. EUR/CHF near 0.9336 continues to reflect the Franc’s fading safe-haven role against a Euro underpinned by roughly 90% odds of a September ECB hike, an odds now reinforced by the Eurozone Composite PMI’s rise to a nine-month high of 52.1, while German 10-year Bund yields near 3.24% hold just off this week’s 15-year high as fiscal-sustainability concerns spread across major bond markets. Precious metals are the session’s clearest bright spot outside crypto: Silver is trading near $69.90 an ounce, its highest level in over a decade, on pace for a third straight weekly gain, while Gold trades near $4,550-4,563, its highest level since early June. Energy tells a more mixed story, with Brent crude still elevated above $93-94 a barrel on the Iran standoff even as US Natural Gas near $2.76 slides on record domestic production and an oversupplied storage picture. The FTSE 100 has turned higher to around 10,770, with a mining-led rally tied to the gold and silver breakout offsetting the usual drag from a firmer Pound. Crypto remains the standout: XRP has surged more than 30% on the week to trade above $1.35 and is eyeing $1.50, Ethereum is approaching $2,400-$2,500 resistance, and Bitcoin is extending a fifth straight day of gains above $77,000 on fresh ETF inflows as the Treasury-buyback-driven short squeeze that began this week carries deep into the London morning. Highest-conviction session idea: fade continued Dollar weakness by favouring EUR/CHF and GBP/USD longs alongside precious metals, FTSE mining exposure and crypto, but size cautiously around the remaining UK and US flash PMIs and Monday’s expected US sanctions announcement on Iran, both genuine sources of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: EUR/CHF buy dips toward 0.9280, stop 0.9200, target 0.9420 — the ECB-SNB rate gap, now reinforced by today’s PMI beat, is a genuine tailwind, though a soft UK or US PMI surprise is a real source of two-way risk. GBP/USD buy dips toward 1.3580, stop 1.3480, target 1.3820 — persistent Dollar weakness is a genuine tailwind, though a strong US PMI beat is a real source of two-way risk. Silver buy dips toward $66.50, stop $64.50, target $71.50 — fading Fed hike bets are a genuine tailwind, though a sharp Dollar rebound is a real source of two-way risk. Natural Gas sell rallies toward $2.90, stop $3.05, target $2.55 — record US production is a genuine headwind, though a sudden heat-wave revision is a real source of two-way risk. FTSE 100 buy dips toward 10,660, stop 10,560, target 10,850 — the mining-led rally is a genuine tailwind, though a firmer Pound and elevated oil remain a real source of two-way risk. EU 10Y buy dips in yield toward 3.15%, stop 3.05%, target 3.40% — hawkish ECB repricing, now reinforced by today’s PMI beat, is a genuine tailwind, though a weak US PMI print is a real source of two-way risk. XRP buy dips toward $1.20, stop $1.10, target $1.50 — continued short-covering momentum is a genuine tailwind, though the scale of this week’s move itself is a real source of two-way risk. ETH/USD buy dips toward $2,260, stop $2,130, target $2,500 — Bitcoin’s own advance toward $80,000 is a genuine tailwind, though profit-taking after a sharp weekly gain is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variable for the remainder of the day is how the remaining UK and US flash PMIs land relative to expectations, alongside Monday’s expected US sanctions escalation on Iran, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote on 27 August looming as the next major catalyst. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply into the weekend.
Ready to act on today’s setups? Open an Account with Capital Street FX and trade every instrument covered in this report on our Zero Account‘s 0.0 Pips Spreads and 1:10000 Leverage, across 2000+ Instruments, with a welcome deposit bonus and 24/7 Live Support on hand for every session.
Not sure which account fits your style? Compare our Account Types side by side with our Account Comparison tool, browse current Promotions / Bonus offers, and trade from our Trading Platform suite. Funding is simple via our Deposit & Withdrawal options. For ongoing coverage, explore our Forex Analysis Pages, Commodity Analysis Pages and Crypto Analysis Pages, plus our Daily Market Analysis and Weekly Market Analysis reports and the full Economic Calendar. New to trading? Visit our Trading Education / Blog, or reach our Contact Us / Live Support team any time.
Access Live European Markets →
