Euro and Pound Press Toward One-Year Highs as Dollar Softens, Wheat Extends Its Advance on Iran-Linked Supply Risk, Silver Slides on Re-Anchored Inflation Fears, and the DAX Slips Below 25,000 | Technical analysis – European Session | 16 July 2026
Euro and Pound Press Toward One-Year Highs as a Broadly Softer Dollar Meets ECB and BoE Rate-Hike Repricing, While Silver Slides on Re-Anchored Inflation Fears, Wheat Extends Its Advance on Iran-Linked Supply Risk, the DAX Slips Below 25,000, and Ethereum and Solana Firm as Crypto Turns Risk-On
A broadly softer Dollar lifts the Euro and Pound toward one-year highs on ECB and BoE hike bets, even as the same Middle East energy shock that is stoking inflation fears drags Silver lower, pushes Wheat higher, keeps the DAX and Eurozone yields under pressure, and leaves crypto as the session’s most conspicuous bright spot.
Thursday’s European session opened with the Dollar on the back foot across the board, a trend that has been building since Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation cooling to 3.5% year-on-year and posting its first monthly decline since 2020. EUR/USD has climbed to around 1.1481, its strongest level in roughly a year, as markets now fully price a European Central Bank rate increase in September and anticipate a deposit rate near 2.70% by December, up from the current 2.25%, even as ECB policymakers including Piero Cipollone and Martin Kocher have struck a more cautious tone, arguing there is no clear evidence yet of second-round inflation effects. GBP/USD has extended its own advance to near 1.3540, its highest level since mid-June and within striking distance of a one-year peak against the Euro, as Bank of England rate-hike expectations firm and as domestic political uncertainty recedes ahead of Monday’s expected confirmation of Andy Burnham as the UK’s next prime minister, with attention now shifting to his choice of chancellor.
That same Dollar softness has done little for precious metals, which remain caught in the crosswinds of the deepening US-Iran conflict. Silver has fallen more than 1% to trade near $57.00 an ounce, unable to sustain Tuesday’s brief rebound above $60, as renewed US strikes on Iranian targets and President Trump’s threat to widen the campaign against Iranian infrastructure keep energy prices elevated and inflation expectations de-anchored to the upside — a backdrop that favours continued central-bank tightening over the rate cuts that would typically support a non-yielding asset like Silver. Wheat is telling a different story, extending Wednesday’s near 3% advance to trade above 665 cents a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade after the USDA reported June 1 stocks below expectations and a reduced acreage forecast, with the Iran-linked threat to Strait of Hormuz shipping adding a fresh layer of supply anxiety on top of already-firm export demand, including a private sale of US hard red spring wheat to Nigeria.
European equities are under modest pressure, with the DAX 40 slipping around 0.2% to near 24,946 points, building on Wednesday’s roughly 0.6% decline as chemical and technology names including Infineon, BASF and Bayer underperform on renewed Middle East risk aversion, while automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW and HeidelbergCement have held up comparatively well. Eurozone government bond yields are pushing toward their highest levels since May, with the German 10-year Bund near 3.1% and the two-year note near 2.8%, its highest since July 2024; the 5-year note yield is estimated near 2.95%, reflecting the same ECB tightening bets that are supporting the Euro even as they weigh on risk appetite in equities. In digital assets, the tone is considerably brighter: Ethereum has reclaimed the $1,900 level to trade near $1,920, up more than 3% on the day amid improving institutional and staking-related demand, while Solana holds near $77.50, up around 1.5%, as broader crypto markets track Bitcoin’s push back above the $65,000 mark following this week’s cooler US inflation data. The remainder of the session hinges on US Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, all due at 14:30 CET, together with any further escalation in the US-Iran standoff.
European Session Headlines
The stories driving price action across currencies, equities, commodities, rates and crypto this session
European Session Economic Calendar — 16 July 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action this session (Central European Time / CET unless noted). Track these and every other upcoming release on the live Economic Calendar.
| Time (CET) | Event | Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪Overnight | Overnight Asian Session Carryover | Nikkei 225 fell 2.6% on a chip-stock selloff; USD/JPY eased on a Japanese verbal intervention warning | 🟢 MEDIUM | Set a cautious risk tone into the European open, though European equities opened only modestly lower |
| 🇪🇺Ongoing | ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone Speaks (Rome) | Remarks on the digital euro during the Federcasse assembly | ⚪ LOW | Not expected to move policy pricing materially, but watched for any tone on the broader rate path |
| 🇬🇧Ongoing | UK Political Transition — Burnham Confirmation Countdown | Andy Burnham widely expected to be confirmed as UK Prime Minister on Monday 20 July; chancellor pick in focus | 🟢 MEDIUM | Reduced political uncertainty is helping underpin Sterling into the weekend |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | US-Iran Conflict — Strait of Hormuz Tensions | President Trump threatens to widen strikes on Iranian infrastructure absent a deal within the week | 🔴 CRITICAL | Keeping oil and energy costs elevated, pressuring Silver while supporting Wheat’s supply-risk premium |
| 🇺🇸14:30 | US Retail Sales (June) | Forecast +0.2% MoM, previous +0.9% | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key read on US consumer resilience and near-term Fed rate expectations |
| 🇺🇸14:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | Weekly claims plus the regional manufacturing and employment gauge | 🟢 MEDIUM | Additional read on labour-market and manufacturing momentum ahead of the next FOMC meeting |
| 🇺🇸16:00 | US Business Inventories & Pending Home Sales | Business inventories forecast +0.3%; pending home sales index prior 76.8 | ⚪ LOW | Secondary releases, unlikely to move majors materially on their own |
| 🇺🇸01:00 (Fri) | Fed Governor Philip Jefferson Speaks | Remarks due 7:00pm ET Thursday (01:00 CET Friday) | 🟢 MEDIUM | Watched for any shift in tone on the near-term rate path following this week’s data |
European Session Technical Levels — 16 July 2026
Eight instruments — EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Silver, Wheat, DAX 40, EU 5Y Yield, Ethereum, Solana — with sourced prices, support/resistance reference points, and fundamental and technical context. These are informational reference levels, not trade recommendations. Browse the full range of tradable Trading Instruments or compare Account Types before you trade them.
EUR/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/USD continues to draw support from broad Dollar weakness following Tuesday’s much cooler-than-expected US CPI print, which pulled annual headline inflation to 3.5% and reduced near-term Fed hike odds. Markets now fully price a September ECB rate hike and see a deposit rate near 2.70% by December, though recent comments from ECB policymakers Piero Cipollone and Martin Kocher struck a more cautious note, arguing there is no clear evidence yet of second-round inflation effects from the Middle East-driven energy shock.
Technical Outlook
Spot is grinding higher inside a shallow rising channel, with resistance layered near 1.1520 and a further target near 1.15 round-number territory referenced by short-term forecasters. Support sits near 1.1420, the base of the recent range, with a deeper floor near 1.1381, this week’s low.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 14:30 CET; (2) any further ECB commentary on the rate path; (3) continued Strait of Hormuz headlines and their impact on the safe-haven Dollar; (4) Fed Governor Jefferson’s remarks late Thursday.
GBP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Sterling is trading near its highest level since mid-June against the Dollar and close to a one-year high against the Euro, supported by expectations of further Bank of England tightening as Middle East-driven oil prices keep UK inflation risk skewed to the upside. Domestic political uncertainty is also fading ahead of Monday’s expected confirmation of Andy Burnham as prime minister, with investor attention shifting to his choice of chancellor and reports that a fiscally cautious pick is the frontrunner, which markets have read as reassuring for gilts and the currency alike.
Technical Outlook
Cable is pressing against resistance near 1.3630, above which the pair would be testing fresh cycle highs, while support sits near 1.3450 and a deeper floor near 1.3346, this week’s low. The broader 52-week range of roughly 1.3009 to 1.3869 frames the pair’s longer-term technical context.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further detail on the incoming UK chancellor; (2) US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 14:30 CET and their impact on broad Dollar direction; (3) continued BoE rate-hike repricing; (4) Middle East headline risk given oil’s role in UK inflation expectations. For ongoing coverage of GBP/USD and the other majors, see Daily Forex Analysis.
Silver
Fundamental Backdrop
Silver is under pressure as elevated energy prices, driven by renewed US strikes on Iran and the reinstated naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, keep inflation expectations de-anchored to the upside — a dynamic that argues for continued central-bank tightening rather than the rate cuts that would typically favour a non-yielding asset. President Trump has threatened to widen attacks on Iranian infrastructure absent a negotiated deal within the week, adding to the risk premium in energy and, by extension, inflation-sensitive pricing.
Technical Outlook
Spot trades below its 20-day EMA near $60.75, which now caps rallies, with the Relative Strength Index near 36 suggesting persistent selling pressure without being outright oversold. A reclaim of the 20-day EMA would open the way toward the 6 July high of $61.37, while a break of support near $55.50 risks a deeper slide toward the December 2025-era lows.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further escalation or de-escalation headlines in the US-Iran conflict; (2) US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 14:30 CET and their read-through for Fed policy; (3) broad Dollar direction given Silver’s inverse USD sensitivity; (4) Fed Governor Jefferson’s remarks late Thursday. For more precious-metals coverage, visit Commodity Analysis; scalpers may also want to review the raw-spread Zero Account.
Wheat
Fundamental Backdrop
Wheat is extending Wednesday’s near-3% advance after the USDA reported June 1 stocks of 920 million bushels, below expectations, alongside a reduced annual acreage forecast of 42.740 million acres. Strong export demand, including a private sale of 100,000 metric tons of US hard red spring wheat to Nigeria, is compounding the supply-side tightness, while the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz adds a fresh geopolitical risk premium to global grain shipping routes, even as a steady US harvest pace and expectations of robust Black Sea production continue to cap the scale of the advance.
Technical Outlook
Front-month futures are pushing toward resistance near 685 cents a bushel, this month’s earlier highs, having cleared support near 645. A sustained break higher would put the market on track to test its most bullish levels of the year, while a reversal back below 645 would suggest the harvest-pressure dynamic typical of the June-July seasonal low is reasserting itself.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea shipping headlines; (2) the weekly US export sales report; (3) US Dollar direction given its impact on export competitiveness; (4) any updated USDA guidance on global ending stocks. See the latest agricultural setups on the Commodity Analysis page.
DAX 40
Fundamental Backdrop
Germany’s benchmark is extending Wednesday’s roughly 0.6% decline as investors weigh corporate earnings against escalating Middle East tensions, with oil prices remaining elevated following renewed US strikes on Iran and the reimposition of a shipping blockade. Technology and chemical names have led the losses, with Infineon, Siltronic and BASF all under pressure — the latter disappointing investors with unchanged free-cash-flow guidance despite otherwise strong preliminary results — while automakers including Volkswagen, BMW and building-materials group HeidelbergCement have bucked the trend with solid gains.
Technical Outlook
The index is consolidating below the psychologically important 25,000 level, with support near 24,840, Wednesday’s intraday low, and resistance near 25,060, the top of the recent range. The broader picture remains constructive, with the index having touched a record intraday high of 25,900.10 on 6 July before the current Middle East-driven pullback, leaving the longer-term uptrend intact so long as support holds.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further Strait of Hormuz and Iran-infrastructure headlines; (2) the ongoing European corporate earnings season, including further bank results; (3) US Retail Sales at 14:30 CET and its impact on global risk sentiment; (4) any fresh ECB commentary on the rate path. Full index coverage is updated daily in our Daily Market Analysis.
EU 5Y Yield
Fundamental Backdrop
Germany’s 5-year yield is estimated near 2.95%, tracking a broader rise across the curve that has pushed the 10-year Bund toward 3.1%, its highest since 21 May, and the 2-year note to around 2.8%, its highest since July 2024. The same Middle East-driven rise in oil prices that is pressuring Silver is reinforcing expectations of further ECB tightening, with money markets fully pricing a September hike and looking for a deposit rate near 2.70% by December, even as policymakers Cipollone and Kocher have urged caution absent clearer evidence of second-round inflation effects.
Technical Outlook
Yields are grinding higher toward the psychologically significant 3.00% handle, with resistance near 3.10%, in line with the 10-year’s recent peak, and support near 2.80%, close to the 2-year’s current level and a recent basing area for the belly of the curve. A sustained move above 3.10% would mark a fresh cycle high for intermediate German yields.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further ECB policymaker commentary on the rate path; (2) US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 14:30 CET, which typically spill over into Bund trading via the US Treasury curve; (3) continued Middle East oil-price dynamics; (4) upcoming Eurozone inflation data for confirmation of the second-round-effects debate. Plan around these releases with the full Economic Calendar and our Weekly Market Analysis.
Ethereum
Fundamental Backdrop
Ethereum has reclaimed the $1,900 level, up more than 3% on the day, as improving institutional flows and a more favourable staking-revenue outlook offset the broader caution seen elsewhere in markets. The move tracks a wider recovery in digital assets, with Bitcoin pushing back above $65,000 for the first time in roughly three weeks as this week’s cooler-than-expected US inflation data eased near-term Federal Reserve rate-hike concerns and reduced the odds of tighter dollar liquidity conditions that typically pressure crypto.
Technical Outlook
ETH has reclaimed its 50-day EMA near $1,800, which now serves as near-term support, with the 100-day EMA near $1,960 the next resistance test; a break higher would put the 200-day EMA near $2,242 back in view as a longer-term target. The Relative Strength Index has moved back toward neutral-to-bullish territory, consistent with the day’s broad-based advance.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) continued institutional ETF flow data; (2) Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $65,000; (3) US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 14:30 CET and their impact on broad risk appetite; (4) any fresh developments around Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade timeline. Track BTC, ETH, XRP and SOL daily on our Crypto Analysis page.
Solana
Fundamental Backdrop
Solana is firming alongside the broader crypto risk-on tone, trading near $77.50 and up around 1.5% on the day, as Bitcoin’s push back above $65,000 and Ethereum’s rally above $1,900 lift risk appetite across digital assets. The network continues to lead layer-1 and layer-2 chains in weekly decentralized-application revenue and decentralized-exchange volume, underpinning a constructive fundamental backdrop even as recent sessions have seen bouts of volatility tied to broader geopolitical headline risk.
Technical Outlook
SOL is holding above its 200-day moving average near $72, a level that has repeatedly acted as support during recent pullbacks, including a dip below $76 earlier this week tied to a large liquidation event. A move above resistance near $83.50 would open the way toward the $90-$98 zone cited by technical forecasters, while a loss of the $72 support would risk a retest of the $66-$70 area.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Bitcoin and Ethereum’s ability to hold their recent gains; (2) continued DeFi and stablecoin-issuance activity on Solana; (3) US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims at 14:30 CET and their impact on broad risk sentiment; (4) any renewed volatility tied to Middle East headline risk. Ready to trade SOL and the rest of this session’s movers? Open an Account with Capital Street FX.
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European Session FAQ
Common questions about what is driving Thursday’s session
European Session Summary — Thursday, 16 July 2026 (Live Update)
Thursday’s European session is being defined by a broadly softer US Dollar that is lifting the Euro and Pound toward one-year highs, even as the deepening US-Iran conflict pulls other asset classes in sharply different directions. EUR/USD has pushed to around 1.1481 and GBP/USD to near 1.3540, both supported by this week’s cooler-than-expected US inflation data alongside firming European Central Bank and Bank of England rate-hike expectations, with Sterling additionally helped by fading UK political uncertainty ahead of Monday’s expected confirmation of Andy Burnham as prime minister. That same Dollar softness has done little for Silver, which has fallen over 1% to near $57.00 an ounce as elevated oil prices, driven by an escalating US military campaign against Iran and President Trump’s threat to widen strikes on Iranian infrastructure, keep inflation expectations elevated in a way that favours tighter rather than looser policy. Wheat is moving in the opposite direction to Silver, extending Wednesday’s near-3% rally to above 665 cents a bushel on the back of tight US stocks, a reduced acreage forecast, robust export demand and fresh Strait of Hormuz-linked supply anxiety. European equities remain on the back foot, with the DAX 40 slipping near 0.2% to around 24,946 as chemical and technology names underperform, while Eurozone government bond yields push toward cycle highs, with the German 10-year Bund near 3.1% and the 5-year note estimated near 2.95%, both reflecting the same ECB tightening bets supporting the Euro. In digital assets, Ethereum has reclaimed $1,900 to trade near $1,920, up over 3%, while Solana holds near $77.50, both tracking Bitcoin’s push back above $65,000 as this week’s inflation data eased near-term Fed concerns. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are US Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, all due at 14:30 CET, along with any further headlines on the US-Iran standoff, the UK’s incoming government, or the ECB’s rate-hike path. Markets remain unusually sensitive to headline risk across all three fronts, and the technical levels above should be read as reference points for a fast-moving session rather than fixed targets.
