Euro Holds Near $1.14 as ECB Decision Looms, Brent Crude Tops $96 on a 12th Night of US Strikes on Iran, FTSE 100 Cools After Its Best Rally in Months | European Session – Technical Analysis | 23 July 2026
Euro Holds Near $1.14 as ECB Decision Looms, Brent Crude Tops $96 on a 12th Night of US Strikes on Iran
EUR/USD · GBP/USD · Aluminium · Wheat · FTSE 100 · EU 10Y (German Bund) · ETH/USD · Dogecoin — live European coverage through the London and Frankfurt morning
“Every corner of this session is waiting on Frankfurt at 13:45 CET — the ECB’s hold-or-hike tone, arriving hours after Brent crude broke above $96, is the one release that can move all eight of today’s trades at once.”
Thursday’s European trade is dominated by the countdown to the European Central Bank’s rate decision, due at 13:45 CET with President Christine Lagarde’s press conference to follow at 14:30 CET. Markets assign a better than 99% probability that the Governing Council holds its deposit rate at 2.25% following June’s surprise hike, but because July is a non-projection meeting with no fresh staff forecasts, the entire signalling burden falls on Lagarde’s tone: whether she keeps a September hike credible or signals comfort with current settings. That uncertainty is holding EUR/USD in a tight band near 1.1435, while the German 10-year Bund yield sits near a two-month high of 3.15% as the energy-driven inflation shock from the Middle East keeps a further tightening path alive. Sterling is a secondary story today, with GBP/USD softer near 1.3375 after Wednesday’s cooler-than-expected UK inflation print reduced the odds of a Bank of England hike at its own meeting next Thursday.
The backdrop across commodities and equities is being set by the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire: Brent crude has climbed to a seven-week high above $96 a barrel after a 12th consecutive night of US airstrikes on Iran and reports that Yemen’s Houthi forces targeted tankers in the Red Sea. That energy-driven inflation impulse is a genuine tailwind for Aluminium, which is holding multi-week highs on tightening LME inventories and a reinstated Hormuz blockade threat, and it is compounding a separate, Black Sea-driven rally in Wheat toward two-year highs. Equities are more cautious: the FTSE 100 is consolidating just below 10,700 after Wednesday’s outsized rally, weighing resilient commodity and defence exposure against the drag from higher fuel costs on names like easyJet. Digital assets are quiet, with Ethereum holding a constructive position above its 50-day EMA while Dogecoin remains stuck deep in a multi-month downtrend amid Extreme Fear sentiment readings.
European Session News Flow
The stories moving EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Aluminium, Wheat, the FTSE 100, EU 10Y and crypto this morning
European Session Economic Calendar — 23 July 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the London and Frankfurt morning (local times unless noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺13:45 CET | ECB Interest Rate Decision | Deposit rate expected to hold at 2.25%; over 99% odds of no change priced in | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary driver of the EUR/USD and EU 10Y trade ideas and the key event risk of the session |
| 🇪🇺14:30 CET | Lagarde ECB Press Conference | No fresh staff projections this meeting; focus on whether a September hike stays credible | 🔴 CRITICAL | Tone, not the rate itself, is expected to drive the bulk of intraday EUR and Bund volatility |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | US-Iran Conflict / 12th Night of Strikes | Brent crude above $96/bbl, a seven-week high; ceasefire talks stalled | 🔴 CRITICAL | Background driver of broad Dollar and Euro-area inflation tone, feeding Aluminium and Bund yields |
| 🇭🇪Ongoing | Houthi Red Sea Shipping Threats | Reports of Houthi forces targeting two oil tankers in the Red Sea | 🟢 MEDIUM | Reinforces the energy-driven risk premium supporting Aluminium and pressuring the FTSE 100 |
| 🇬🇧Released Wed | UK CPI (June) | 2.6% YoY, below the 2.7% forecast and the lowest since March 2025 | 🟢 MEDIUM | Key driver of today’s GBP/USD trade idea and reduced odds of a BoE hike on 30 July |
| 🇬🇧30 July | Bank of England Policy Meeting (Preview) | Markets positioning for a hold after the softer June inflation print | 🟢 MEDIUM | Secondary driver of GBP/USD into next week alongside the Fed’s 28-29 July meeting |
| 🇺🇦Ongoing | Black Sea Grain Corridor Disruption | Russia restricts Sea of Azov/Kavkaz port access; Ukraine drone strikes on port-linked warehouses | 🟢 MEDIUM | Primary driver of Wheat’s push toward two-year highs and a source of headline risk all session |
| 🇺🇸Next Week | FOMC Policy Meeting Preview (28-29 July) | Markets assessing Fed odds amid oil-driven inflation risk and a resilient US labour market | 🟢 MEDIUM | Background driver of broad Dollar tone and a key swing factor for EUR/USD and GBP/USD |
European Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
EUR/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/USD is consolidating just below 1.1440, roughly 40 pips off the 15 July monthly high of 1.1482, as traders brace for the ECB’s decision. A hold at 2.25% is almost fully priced, so the pair’s next move hinges on whether Lagarde explicitly endorses market pricing for a September hike or deliberately keeps her options open; markets already price roughly two further hikes by year-end given the energy-driven inflation shock from the Middle East.
Technical Outlook
The pair remains range-bound between the 1.1399 weekly low and the 1.1482 monthly high, with price hovering just above its 50-day EMA. A hawkish-leaning hold that keeps September credible would likely fuel a break toward 1.1500, while a dovish surprise risks a slide back toward 1.1340. Given the binary nature of today’s catalyst, position sizing into the decision itself is worth treating with particular caution.
GBP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Sterling is on the back foot near 1.3375 after UK annual inflation eased to 2.6% in June, below the 2.7% forecast and the lowest reading since March 2025, driven by softer transport and food prices. That reduces the case for a Bank of England hike at next Thursday’s meeting, just as a broadly firm Dollar, still supported by Middle East safe-haven demand, caps the pair’s recovery attempts.
Technical Outlook
GBP/USD is trading below its 50-day SMA near 1.35 after slipping from the recent one-year high close to 1.343, with the 14-day RSI drifting toward neutral-to-soft territory. A sustained break below the 1.3370-1.3350 shelf would expose this trade’s 1.3280 target, while a close back above 1.3480, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the bearish setup into question.
Aluminium
Fundamental Backdrop
Aluminium is holding near $3,168 a tonne after LME warehouse stocks fell below 300,000 tonnes for the first time since 2022, a drop of more than 40% since the start of the year. Macquarie has flagged a global deficit of around 930,000 tonnes, while President Trump’s threat to reinstate a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has revived fears over Gulf supply routes and higher energy costs for power-hungry European and Asian smelters.
Technical Outlook
The metal is holding well above its four-month low near $3,085 touched earlier in July, consolidating in a $3,125-3,200 band. A sustained hold above $3,120 keeps this trade’s $3,260 target in play, while a close back below $3,050, this trade’s stop-loss level, would suggest the supply-deficit narrative is losing its grip on price action.
Wheat
Fundamental Backdrop
Wheat is pressing toward $6.82 a bushel, its highest level since May 2024, after Russia restricted access to certain Sea of Azov and Kavkaz ports while continuing strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure. SovEcon has cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat harvest, France’s soft-wheat crop is projected to fall 7.6% on heat-wave damage, and US spring wheat conditions have deteriorated week-on-week.
Technical Outlook
The front-month contract is holding a well-established uptrend after breaking above the $6.70 resistance shelf, with momentum indicators still constructive. A hold above $6.65 keeps this trade’s $7.10 target in view, while a close back below $6.40, this trade’s stop-loss level, would suggest the Black Sea risk premium is beginning to unwind.
FTSE 100
Fundamental Backdrop
The FTSE 100 is consolidating just below 10,700 after Wednesday’s 131-point, 1.24% surge to a three-month high of 10,716.97, London’s best day in weeks. Brent crude’s climb above $96 a barrel is a genuine tailwind for the index’s heavy energy and mining weighting, but it is also pressuring fuel-sensitive names; easyJet reported a 70% drop in quarterly profit, citing higher fuel costs and weaker bookings tied to the Middle East conflict.
Technical Outlook
The index remains in an established uptrend, having reclaimed its 52-week range with room toward the 10,934.94 high still intact. A hold above the 10,620-10,650 shelf keeps this trade’s 10,820 target in play, while a close back below 10,520, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the current breakout structure into question.
EU 10Y (German Bund)
Fundamental Backdrop
The German 10-year Bund yield is holding near 3.15%, close to a two-month high, while the more policy-sensitive two-year yield trades above 2.8%, its highest since July 2024. The energy-driven inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict has reinforced expectations for roughly two further ECB hikes by year-end, with today’s decision and Lagarde’s tone the immediate catalyst for whether that repricing continues.
Technical Outlook
Yields have been grinding higher in a well-defined uptrend since late June, tracking the rise in Brent crude and hawkish ECB repricing. A hold above 3.08% keeps this trade’s 3.25% target in view, while a drop back below 3.00%, this trade’s stop-loss level, would suggest the market is fading the prospect of further ECB tightening this year.
ETH/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Ethereum is trading near $1,919, holding above its 50-day EMA at $1,806.33 after reclaiming it earlier this month. The 14-day RSI near 63 signals strengthening but not yet overbought momentum, with the market continuing to weigh softer US inflation data and Fed-rate expectations against broader risk-off pressure from the Middle East conflict.
Technical Outlook
The token remains in a constructive short-term structure above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, with the 100-day EMA near $1,944.79 the next key resistance and the 200-day EMA near $2,217.64 the major long-term hurdle. A hold above $1,860 keeps this trade’s $1,960 target in play, while a close back below $1,790, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the recovery structure into question.
Dogecoin
Fundamental Backdrop
Dogecoin is trading near $0.0735, down more than 70% over the past 12 months and deep within its $0.0696-$0.4838 52-week range. A Fear & Greed Index reading of 25, in Extreme Fear territory, reflects broadly cautious risk appetite for higher-beta, retail-driven crypto names even as majors like Ethereum hold firmer, a pattern consistent with the Middle East-driven risk-off backdrop weighing more heavily on speculative assets.
Technical Outlook
The token is trading below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, with the 4-hour chart showing a bearish structure and a falling 50-day moving average signalling a weakening short-term trend. A failure to reclaim $0.0765 keeps this trade’s $0.0680 target in view, while a close back above $0.0800, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the bearish setup into question.
European Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
European Session Summary — Thursday, 23 July 2026 (Live Update)
Thursday’s European session is dominated above all by the countdown to the European Central Bank’s 13:45 CET rate decision and President Christine Lagarde’s 14:30 CET press conference; a hold at the current 2.25% deposit rate is priced with better than 99% probability, but because July is a non-projection meeting, Lagarde’s tone on whether a September hike remains credible is likely to drive the bulk of today’s EUR/USD and German Bund yield volatility. EUR/USD is holding near 1.1435, some 40 pips below its 15 July monthly high, while the German 10-year Bund yield sits near a two-month high of 3.15% and the two-year yield trades at its highest since July 2024, both reflecting a market that is pricing roughly two further ECB hikes by year-end on the back of an energy-driven inflation shock. GBP/USD is the session’s clearer directional story, softening to 1.3375 after UK inflation cooled to 2.6% in June, below forecasts and the lowest since March 2025, trimming the odds of a Bank of England hike at next Thursday’s meeting even as a broadly firm Dollar caps any recovery attempt. That same Middle East backdrop, now a 12th consecutive night of US strikes on Iran and Brent crude above $96 a barrel, a seven-week high, is a genuine tailwind for Aluminium, which is holding multi-week highs on LME stocks at their lowest since 2022, and is compounding a separate Black Sea-driven rally in Wheat toward a two-year high above $6.80 a bushel. Equities are more cautious: the FTSE 100 is consolidating just below 10,700 after Wednesday’s outsized 1.24% surge, weighing resilient commodity and mining exposure against the drag of higher fuel costs on travel names. Digital assets remain split, with Ethereum holding constructively above its 50-day EMA near $1,919 while Dogecoin stays mired near $0.0735 amid Extreme Fear sentiment. Highest-conviction session idea: buy EUR/USD dips toward 1.1400, targeting 1.1500 — a hawkish-leaning ECB hold that keeps a September hike credible, arriving alongside elevated Bund yields and a genuine energy-driven inflation impulse, is a powerful multi-pronged tailwind, though a dovish surprise from Lagarde is a real risk that could reverse the move sharply and without warning.
For the individual instruments: EUR/USD buy dips toward 1.1400, stop 1.1340, target 1.1500 — a hawkish-leaning ECB hold and elevated Bund yields are genuine tailwinds, though a dovish surprise from Lagarde’s press conference is a real two-way risk. GBP/USD sell rallies toward 1.3420, stop 1.3480, target 1.3280 — a cooler-than-expected UK inflation print and reduced BoE hike odds are genuine headwinds, though a broadly firm, Middle East-driven Dollar is doing much of the work and could fade if tensions ease. Aluminium buy dips toward $3,120, stop $3,050, target $3,260 — genuinely tightening LME inventories and a reinstated Hormuz blockade threat are real tailwinds, though any de-escalation in the Middle East is a source of two-way headline risk. Wheat buy dips toward $6.65, stop $6.40, target $7.10 — escalating Black Sea shipping disruption and genuine crop downgrades in Russia and France are strong tailwinds, though a ceasefire or resumption of grain-corridor access is a real risk to the bullish case. FTSE 100 buy dips toward 10,620, stop 10,520, target 10,820 — a resilient, commodity-heavy composition is a genuine tailwind, though further spikes in oil prices are a real headwind for fuel-sensitive constituents. EU 10Y (German Bund) buy yield dips toward 3.08%, stop 3.00%, target 3.25% — a genuine energy-driven inflation impulse and hawkish ECB repricing are tailwinds for yields, though a dovish Lagarde surprise is a real risk to this view. ETH/USD buy dips toward $1,860, stop $1,790, target $1,960 — a hold above the 50-day EMA and improving momentum are genuine tailwinds, though resistance at the 100-day EMA near $1,945 is a real risk to the upside case. Dogecoin sell rallies toward $0.0765, stop $0.0800, target $0.0680 — weak momentum and Extreme Fear sentiment are genuine headwinds, though any broad risk-on reversal in crypto is a real risk to the bearish case. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are the ECB’s rate statement and Lagarde’s tone at 13:45 and 14:30 CET, any further escalation or de-escalation headlines from the US-Iran conflict and their impact on Brent crude, developments in the Black Sea grain corridor, and next week’s Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings. Size positions accordingly, and note that the geopolitical and macro backdrop remains exceptionally fluid and carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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