Euro Holds Near 1.1520 as UK GDP Cools While Copper Slips, DAX Eyes Record Highs and Bund Yields Sit Near Cycle Highs Ahead of US PPI | Technical Analysis – European Session | 13-08-2026
Euro Holds Near 1.1520 as UK GDP Cools While Copper Slips, DAX Eyes Record Highs and Bund Yields Sit Near Cycle Highs Ahead of US PPI
EUR/USD · GBP/USD · Copper · Crude Oil · DAX 40 · EU 30Y · Solana · ETH/USD — live coverage through the European trading day
“The Euro is treading water above 1.1500, the DAX is one good session from a fresh record, and every desk in Europe has one eye on this afternoon’s PPI print.”
Thursday’s European session opened with a genuinely mixed UK growth picture: the headline Q2 GDP slowdown to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter matched expectations, but June’s outsized 0.3% monthly rebound — beating forecasts for a 0.1% decline — suggests underlying momentum going into the second half of the year is firmer than the headline implies. GBP/USD has largely shrugged off the release, holding a tight range near 1.3500 as broader Dollar dynamics dominate. EUR/USD is similarly rangebound just above 1.1500, still digesting Wednesday’s softer US CPI print and awaiting the next catalyst from the Producer Price Index this afternoon.
Equities and rates are the standout macro stories this morning, with the DAX 40 consolidating just below Wednesday’s fresh all-time high as investors weigh resilient German earnings against lingering Strait of Hormuz uncertainty, while the EU 30Y Bund yield sits near its highest levels of the cycle as fiscal concerns and oil-linked inflation risk keep long-end yields elevated across the developed world. In commodities, Copper’s structural supply squeeze is fighting a bout of short-term profit-taking, while Crude Oil chops sideways between a bearish US inventory build and a bullish IEA supply-shortfall warning. Crypto majors Solana and Ethereum are trading a quieter, consolidative session as both markets await confirmation of their next directional break.
European Session Economic Calendar — 13 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the European trading day (times in GMT unless noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇬🇧06:00 GMT | UK Preliminary Q2 GDP | +0.4% QoQ as expected (prior +0.6%); +1.2% YoY vs +1.1% expected | 🔴 CRITICAL | Headline slowdown offset by a stronger annual read; GBP largely unmoved |
| 🇬🇧06:00 GMT | UK Monthly GDP (June) | +0.3% MoM vs -0.1% expected, after a flat May | 🟢 MEDIUM | Encouraging underlying momentum heading into H2 |
| 🇬🇧06:00 GMT | UK Industrial & Manufacturing Production | Roughly flat on the month, in line with a services-led recovery | ⏰ LOW | Services remain the UK growth engine; production still soft |
| 🇪🇺09:00 GMT | Eurozone Industrial Production (June) | Eurostat’s scheduled release for the month | 🟢 MEDIUM | Read alongside Germany’s DAX-led equity strength for a growth cross-check |
| 🇩🇪Ongoing | DAX 40 Consolidates Below Record High | Holding near 26,330 after Wednesday’s fresh intraday record of 26,574 | 🟢 MEDIUM | Profit-taking in defensives offset by industrials and tech strength |
| 🇩🇪Ongoing | EU 30Y Bund Yield Near Cycle Highs | Holding around 3.66% as German yields track a broader global bond selloff | 🟢 MEDIUM | Fiscal concerns and oil-linked inflation risk keep long-end yields elevated |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | Strait of Hormuz Standoff Persists | Iran maintains the strait will stay shut “until all conditions are met” | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key wildcard for Crude Oil and broader risk sentiment into the close |
| 🇺🇸12:30 GMT (8:30 AM ET) | US PPI (July) | Core producer prices expected to slow to 4.2% YoY from 4.7% | 🔴 CRITICAL | Decisive catalyst for the Dollar, DAX and risk sentiment into Friday’s Asian open |
| 🇺🇸12:30 GMT (8:30 AM ET) | US Initial Jobless Claims | Weekly labour-market gauge, released alongside PPI | 🟢 MEDIUM | A soft print would reinforce the case for a less hawkish Fed path |
European Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
EUR/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/USD is holding modestly flat above 1.1500 as the Dollar consolidates losses taken after Wednesday’s cooler-than-expected US CPI print. Growing doubts about the durability of the US-Iran Hormuz de-escalation, alongside a firmer Dollar tone in the Kshitij morning briefing’s near-term outlook, argue for a two-way range ahead of this afternoon’s PPI release, which is the session’s decisive catalyst.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating just below the 1.1550 resistance band. A confirmed close above 1.1580 would open a path back toward 1.1620, while a slip below 1.1500 risks an extension toward 1.1450 and, in a broader Dollar-bullish scenario, 1.1400.
GBP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
GBP/USD is keeping its range near the 1.3500 psychological mark after the UK’s preliminary Q2 GDP came in exactly at the 0.4% quarter-on-quarter forecast, a slowdown from 0.6% in Q1. June’s surprise 0.3% monthly rebound offered a brighter underlying signal, but mixed industrial and manufacturing production data failed to inspire the Pound. The US Dollar’s stabilization after Wednesday’s CPI sell-off is checking any upside attempts in the pair.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating in a tight band either side of 1.3500. A confirmed close above 1.3560 would open a path toward 1.3620, while a slip below 1.3450 risks a deeper pullback toward the 1.3400 support shelf.
Copper
Fundamental Backdrop
Copper is easing back from its recent record highs even as the structural supply story remains firmly intact: the DRC’s export ban on copper concentrate, potential US Section 232 tariffs redirecting metal into domestic warehouses, and constrained mine output at Codelco’s El Teniente all argue for a higher medium-term floor. Near term, however, the market is digesting a sharp run-up, and the Kshitij morning briefing flags further downside toward $6.50-$6.45.
Technical Outlook
Price is pulling back from the $6.77 record area. A confirmed close below $6.57 would open a path toward $6.45, while a reclaim of $6.70 risks a squeeze back toward the recent highs near $6.77.
Crude Oil
Fundamental Backdrop
Crude Oil remains volatile as two opposing forces pull the market in different directions: EIA data showed US crude inventories jumped by 17.4 million barrels last week, the largest weekly build since early 2023, while the IEA’s monthly report flagged a 1.8 million-barrel-a-day global shortfall this quarter tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Iran’s state broadcaster reiterated Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut “until all its conditions are met,” keeping a geopolitical risk premium firmly in place.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating within a broad $80-$88 range. A confirmed close above $84.30 would open a path toward $86.00, while a slip below $80.50 risks a deeper pullback toward the $78.00 support shelf.
DAX 40
Fundamental Backdrop
The DAX 40 gave up early gains to close about 0.2% lower on Wednesday after touching a fresh intraday record of 26,574, as investors booked profits amid lingering uncertainty over the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz reopening. Software, consumer cyclicals, telecoms, utilities and autos came under pressure — E.ON fell nearly 3% despite modest earnings growth — while industrials and tech advanced, keeping the broader uptrend intact.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating just below the 26,574 record high. A confirmed close above 26,600 would open a path toward 27,000, while a slip below 26,100 risks a pullback toward the 25,850 support shelf without threatening the broader bullish structure.
EU 30Y
Fundamental Backdrop
The German 30-year Bund yield is holding near its highest levels of the cycle around 3.66%, tracking a broader global bond selloff as traders navigate US, Eurozone and Japanese fiscal concerns alongside oil-driven inflation risk from the Hormuz standoff. The Kshitij morning briefing notes German yields have bounced back from their lows with room to extend higher, even as the 10-year Bund holds steadier near 3.16%.
Technical Outlook
Yields are consolidating just below the cycle-high zone near 3.70%. A confirmed push above 3.70% would open a path toward 3.85%, while a pullback below 3.50% would ease upward pressure and point to consolidation nearer 3.40%.
Solana
Fundamental Backdrop
Solana is holding above its 50-day EMA near $75.51 and a former downtrend resistance line, now acting as support near $75.16, hinting at a mildly constructive bias. Momentum aligns with this tentative upside tone, with the RSI around 55 in neutral-to-positive territory and the MACD turning positive, suggesting buying pressure is slowly rebuilding after last week’s decline.
Technical Outlook
Price is capped by the 100-day EMA at $78.40, reinforced by the 50% retracement level at $76.92. A confirmed close above $78.40 would open a path toward the 78.6% retracement at $88.56, while a slip below the $75.16-$75.51 support zone risks a deeper pullback toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $67.54.
ETH/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Ethereum is retaining a mildly bullish bias, holding above its 20-day and 50-day EMAs at $1,876 and $1,855 respectively, and advancing within a constructive short-term structure. CryptoQuant data shows large holders have continued to accumulate supply from retail investors through 2026, with the 1K-10K ETH cohort’s holdings falling from 15.6 million to roughly 12.9 million ETH, a pattern that has historically preceded stabilization.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating in a tight range around its short-term EMAs. A confirmed close above $1,915 would open a path toward $1,990, while a slip below $1,850 risks a pullback toward the $1,800 support shelf.
European Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why did UK GDP growth slow in Q2 despite a stronger June?
Why is Copper falling even as supply risks intensify?
What is keeping Crude Oil volatile despite the Hormuz standoff?
What should traders watch for the rest of the European session?
European Session Summary — Thursday, 13 August 2026 (Live Update)
Thursday’s European session has been defined by consolidation and positioning ahead of this afternoon’s US Producer Price Index release. EUR/USD is holding modestly flat above 1.1500 as the Dollar stabilizes after Wednesday’s cooler-than-expected US CPI print, while GBP/USD keeps its range near 1.3500 after a UK GDP report that showed a matched-forecast quarterly slowdown to 0.4% alongside a stronger-than-expected 0.3% June monthly rebound. In commodities, Copper is easing back near $6.61 on profit-taking even as structural supply risks from the DRC’s export ban and looming US tariffs continue to build underneath the price, while Crude Oil remains choppy near $82 as a bearish EIA inventory build offsets the IEA’s warning of a 1.8 million-barrel-a-day global shortfall tied to the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Regional equities are mixed into the session, with Germany’s DAX 40 consolidating near 26,330 after Wednesday’s fresh intraday record of 26,574, as profit-taking in software and utility names offsets strength in industrials and tech. In rates, the EU 30Y Bund yield is holding near cycle highs around 3.66% as German yields track a broader global bond selloff tied to fiscal concerns and oil-driven inflation risk. In digital assets, Solana is consolidating just above its 50-day EMA near $76.40 as it awaits a decisive break of key resistance, while ETH/USD holds a mildly constructive tone above $1,880, supported by continued whale accumulation. Highest-conviction session idea: buy DAX 40 dips toward 26,100, targeting 26,700 — a confirmed record-high breakout combined with resilient German earnings is a powerful tailwind, though a hot US PPI print or fresh Hormuz-related setbacks remain a genuine source of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: EUR/USD sell rallies toward 1.1560, stop 1.1610, target 1.1450 — a stabilizing Dollar and hawkish Kshitij outlook argue for a two-way range, though a soft PPI print is a real source of upside risk for the pair. GBP/USD sell rallies toward 1.3580, stop 1.3640, target 1.3400 — mixed UK data and a firmer Dollar backdrop are a genuine headwind, though resilient underlying UK growth is a real source of two-way risk. Copper sell rallies toward $6.68, stop $6.78, target $6.45 — near-term profit-taking is a genuine headwind, though the structural supply squeeze remains a real source of two-way risk. Crude Oil buy dips toward $80.50, stop $78.00, target $86.00 — the Hormuz standoff and IEA supply-shortfall warning are a genuine tailwind, though the bearish EIA inventory build is a real source of two-way risk. DAX 40 buy dips toward 26,100, stop 25,850, target 26,700 — a confirmed record-high breakout and resilient earnings argue for continuation, though fresh Hormuz-related setbacks are a real source of two-way risk. EU 30Y buy yield dips toward 3.58%, stop 3.50%, target 3.85% — a broader global bond selloff and oil-driven inflation risk are a genuine tailwind for yields, though a soft PPI print is a real source of two-way risk. Solana buy dips toward $75.20, stop $72.50, target $84.00 — rebuilding momentum and a defended 50-day EMA are a genuine tailwind, though crypto’s characteristic volatility is a real source of two-way risk. ETH/USD buy dips toward $1,850, stop $1,800, target $1,990 — continued whale accumulation is a genuine tailwind, though a broader crypto-market pullback remains a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variable for the remainder of the global session is this afternoon’s US PPI release, with any fresh Hormuz-related headlines or Eurozone data surprises the key wildcards for the Dollar, the DAX and broader risk sentiment into Friday’s Asian open. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply into the close.
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