European Stocks Rebound as Chip Stocks Lead Gains and AstraZeneca Plunges 9%; Oil Retreats From Highs, Bund Yields Ease, Euro and Sterling Extend Gains | European Session Technical Analysis | 9 July 2026
European Stocks Rebound as Chip Stocks Lead Gains and AstraZeneca Plunges 9%; Bund Yields Ease From Two-Month High, Oil Retreats, Euro and Sterling Extend Gains
European equities stage a cautious rebound led by chipmakers after Wednesday’s Iran-driven rout, even as AstraZeneca’s 9% plunge keeps the FTSE 100 in the red and the Iran conflict itself remains far from resolved.
Thursday’s European session has turned into a relief rally after Wednesday’s sharp sell-off: the pan-European Stoxx 600 is up around 0.5% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is up close to 1%, with France’s CAC 40 gaining around 0.6% and Germany’s DAX adding roughly 0.7%, clawing back a slice of Wednesday’s 2%-plus declines. The rebound is being driven by semiconductor and technology names, with ASML up 2.6%, Infineon up 3.1% and STMicroelectronics up 3.7%, tracking a broader global bid for chip stocks after strong investor demand for SK Hynix’s upcoming US share offering. London is bucking the trend: the FTSE 100 opened around 0.5% lower and remains the region’s laggard after AstraZeneca, its second-largest index constituent, tumbled more than 9% — its steepest one-day fall since 2017 — following a failed late-stage trial of its Wainua drug in patients with a rare cardiac disease. Crucially, the equity bounce is happening despite an Iran conflict that remains unresolved: the US struck Iranian targets for a second consecutive day, President Trump told reporters at the NATO summit in Ankara that, as far as he is concerned, the ceasefire memorandum of understanding is over, and Iran has threatened large-scale retaliation against US military bases in the region. Markets appear to be drawing some comfort instead from reports that Qatar is pressing Tehran to implement the existing MoU and contain the escalation, alongside a pullback in oil prices from Wednesday’s spike.
That fragile optimism is visible across rates and currencies. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield has eased to around 3.06%, down from Wednesday’s two-month high near 3.10%, even as traders continue to price in additional ECB tightening this year and ECB officials keep flagging the inflationary risk from the oil shock. EUR/USD is climbing toward the 1.1450 area near 1.1435, up from Wednesday’s close near 1.1398, helped by a broadly softer US Dollar and a wider-than-expected German trade surplus of €19.1 billion for May, though the pair’s broader multi-week bearish trend remains technically intact. GBP/USD has pushed to a three-week high above 1.3400 near 1.3415, extending Wednesday’s gains as fading UK political uncertainty following Keir Starmer’s resignation continues to support Sterling. In commodities, Oil is giving back a chunk of Wednesday’s near 5% surge: WTI is down almost 2% to around $73.10 a barrel as investors take profits following two strong rally days, even though the unresolved Strait of Hormuz risk keeps a floor under prices. Gold has snapped a three-day slide to reclaim the $4,100 area, while Silver has rebounded to around $59.13 an ounce after touching a two-week low near $57.22 on Wednesday, though the metal remains down more than $3 on the week and its near-term technical bias stays bearish. Natural gas is little changed: US Henry Hub futures are near $3.22 per MMBtu, while European TTF prices hold near a one-month high around €49 per MWh on tight regional storage, sub-normal Norwegian pipeline flows and lingering Hormuz-related supply risk.
Crypto markets are the clear holdout from today’s risk-on tone. Bitcoin is trading near $62,300, down around 1.6%, while Ethereum has slipped to around $1,735 and XRP is little changed near $1.09; the total crypto market capitalisation has fallen 2.1% over the past 24 hours to around $2.21 trillion, with the Fear & Greed Index stuck at 22, still firmly in “Extreme Fear” territory, and Bitcoin dominance near 56.6% continuing to suppress capital rotation into altcoins. Looking ahead, the next major swing factors for the remainder of the European session and the New York handover are further headlines out of the Iran conflict and any sign of the Qatar-mediated diplomacy gaining traction, additional ECB commentary on the inflationary impact of the oil shock, and US weekly jobless claims data due in the early afternoon, which will be parsed alongside overnight Fed minutes from Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting for further clues on the US rate path.
European Session Headlines
The stories driving price action across equities, FX, metals, energy, rates and crypto this session
European Session Economic Calendar — 9 July 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action across today’s European session (times BST/GMT+1 unless noted)
| Time | Event | Actual / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | US Strikes Iran for a Second Straight Day; Trump Declares Ceasefire “Over” | Washington revoked the waiver allowing Iran to export crude; Trump says he does not expect full-scale war to resume | 🔴 CRITICAL | Keeps Brent above $77 and the European bond sell-off intact; dominant cross-asset driver |
| 🇩🇪07:00 | Germany Trade Balance (May) | €19.1bn surplus vs €14.5bn prior; exports rose, imports fell against expectations | 🟢 MEDIUM | Modest Euro-supportive beat; reinforces resilient external demand narrative |
| 🇪🇺08:00-10:00 | ECB Speakers — Isabel Schnabel on Iran Conflict’s Inflation Impact | Schnabel warns the economic impact of the Middle East escalation on eurozone inflation “persists” | 🔴 CRITICAL | Reinforces hawkish repricing of ECB path; Bund yields hold near two-month highs |
| 🇬🇧Overnight | UK RICS Housing Market Survey (June) | Housing market downturn “eased a little” in June per RICS report | ⚪ LOW | Marginal Sterling positive; not a major session driver |
| 🇬🇧Overnight | UK Pay Awards Data (3 Months to May) | Pay awards hold steady at 3.5% per IDR survey, unchanged from prior reading | ⚪ LOW | Signals contained wage pressure; supports BoE’s data-dependent stance |
| 🇫🇷Ongoing | Marine Le Pen Confirms 2027 French Presidential Bid | National Rally leader confirms candidacy; polls show her party leading, succession to Macron unresolved | 🟢 MEDIUM | Modest headwind for CAC 40 and OAT-Bund spread on political-risk premium |
| 🇩🇪This week | Germany 2027 Budget Draft Approved by Cabinet | €555.4bn planned spending; borrowing raised to €203.6bn from earlier €196.5bn estimate | 🟢 MEDIUM | Fiscal-expansion narrative adds modestly to the long end of the Bund curve |
| 🇺🇸13:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly) | Awaited; prior reading softer-than-expected, a factor behind recent Fed rate-cut repricing | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key swing factor for Dollar direction into the New York handover |
| 🇺🇸Overnight (Wed) | FOMC June Meeting Minutes (First Under Chair Warsh) | Nearly half of policymakers signalled openness to further hikes; hawkish-leaning tone confirmed | 🔴 CRITICAL | Still being digested; supports the broader global bond-yield repricing |
| 🇳🇿Overnight | China June CPI/PPI | PPI +4.1% YoY, in line with forecast and the strongest since July 2022; CPI data also released | 🟢 MEDIUM | Feeds into the global reflation narrative underpinning the bond sell-off |
European Session Trade Ideas — 9 July 2026
Eight structured setups — EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Silver, Natural Gas, CAC 40, EU 5Y Yield, Ethereum, XRP — with updated prices, levels, and full fundamental and technical analysis
EUR/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/USD is holding near 1.1431, just below the 1.1450 area, even as the broader macro backdrop of rising oil prices and Middle East escalation would typically be expected to favour the Dollar as a haven. Instead, the Greenback is struggling to find sustained demand, with markets still hopeful that Washington and Tehran could return to the negotiating table — Qatar is reportedly pressing Iran to honour the earlier memorandum of understanding. A stronger-than-expected German May trade surplus of €19.1 billion, up from €14.5 billion in April, gave the Euro a modest boost earlier in the session. The broader bearish trend that has dominated EUR/USD since the April-June downfall remains intact, however, with the pair still trapped within a well-defined weekly range and rising ECB hike bets only partially offsetting the risk-off backdrop.
Technical Outlook
EUR/USD struggled to find acceptance above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline and faced rejection near the upper bound of an ascending channel that, against the backdrop of the recent decline, now resembles a bearish flag pattern. The pair remains capped beneath the 200-period Exponential Moving Average on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing an overhead supply zone. The 4H RSI sits just below 60 and the MACD histogram is only mildly positive, pointing to a constructive but unconvincing short-term picture. Resistance: 1.1450 (upper channel boundary, the session’s key overhead pivot) and 1.1480 (this trade’s target, the 23.6% Fibonacci level). Support: 1.1400 (this trade’s buy-dip level, the base of today’s range) and 1.1360 (this trade’s stop, below which the broader bearish trend would reassert itself). A confirmed close above 1.1480 would open a path toward 1.1550, while a break below 1.1360 would expose a retest of the year’s lows.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further headlines on Qatari mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran; (2) ECB officials’ commentary on the inflationary impact of the oil shock, particularly from Isabel Schnabel; (3) US weekly jobless claims at 13:30 BST, a key Dollar catalyst; (4) broader risk sentiment into the New York handover, given the pair’s unusually muted correlation with the Iran-driven haven bid; (5) any fresh escalation in the Strait of Hormuz that could still revive Dollar demand.
GBP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Sterling is holding near 1.3404, just above the 1.3400 handle, during early European hours as fading political uncertainty following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation in late June provides genuine support to the currency. The move comes despite a broadly risk-averse market atmosphere driven by the Iran escalation, which would typically be expected to cap the pair’s upside. UK data released overnight was mildly supportive without being decisive: the RICS housing market survey showed the downturn “eased a little” in June, while pay awards held steady at 3.5% over the three months to May, a reading consistent with contained wage pressure that leaves the Bank of England’s data-dependent stance intact ahead of its next meeting.
Technical Outlook
GBP/USD has cleared the 1.3400 handle and is consolidating gains within a well-defined intraday uptrend, having found support earlier in the week near 1.3304. The pair’s rebound from that low has been steady rather than explosive, suggesting the move is more a function of fading UK-specific risk than a broad Dollar rout. Resistance: 1.3435 (week-to-date intraday high) and 1.3470 (this trade’s target, the next material supply zone). Support: 1.3375 (this trade’s buy-dip level, a round-number pivot within the current range) and 1.3335 (this trade’s stop, below which the rebound from this week’s low would be called into question). A confirmed close above 1.3470 would open a path toward the 1.3550-1.3600 zone, while a break below 1.3304 would expose a deeper retracement.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further developments on the identity of Starmer’s successor and the pace of political normalisation; (2) US weekly jobless claims at 13:30 BST, a key Dollar-side catalyst; (3) broader risk sentiment tied to the Iran conflict, given Sterling’s typical sensitivity to global risk appetite; (4) any fresh Bank of England commentary ahead of its next policy decision; (5) the pace of the Dollar’s broader recovery attempt into the New York session.
Silver
Fundamental Backdrop
Silver has rebounded sharply, trading around $59.12 an ounce and reclaiming its former $59.06 resistance zone, as markets pare back the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, with futures now pricing a somewhat lower probability of a move by September than earlier in the week. The rebound comes even as the same oil-driven inflation impulse continues to hit bond markets globally: President Trump’s declaration that the Iran ceasefire MoU is “over,” combined with the US striking Iran again and revoking its oil-export waiver, had initially pushed crude sharply higher and fed fears that elevated energy costs would keep US and global interest rates higher for longer, but silver has since found renewed demand as the metal’s genuinely tight fundamental backdrop reasserts itself: the Silver Institute estimates a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026 near 46 million ounces, with industrial demand from solar, EVs and AI data-centre infrastructure continuing to outpace mine supply, which cannot be scaled quickly since most silver output comes as a byproduct of copper, lead and zinc mining.
Technical Outlook
Silver has confirmed a close back above the $59.06 level that previously capped the multi-week descending triangle on the 4-hour chart, neutralising the near-term bearish setup and shifting short-term sentiment back toward buyers, though price still trades below the 200-period EMA near $65.89. The Relative Strength Index has climbed back above 50, indicating improving momentum, while the MACD histogram has turned modestly positive, consistent with a genuine shift in the intraday structure rather than a one-off spike. Resistance: $59.06 (the reclaimed pivot, now acting as support-turned-floor) and $61.55 (this trade’s target, the next material supply zone). Support: $58.20 (this trade’s buy-dip level, a round-number pivot within the current range) and $57.20 (this trade’s stop, below which the breakout would be called into question). A confirmed close above $61.55 would open a path toward $63.00, while a break below $57.20 would expose a retest of the broken triangle’s former resistance.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) US weekly jobless claims at 13:30 BST, a key input for Fed rate-hike repricing; (2) further Iran-conflict headlines and their impact on the oil-driven inflation narrative; (3) any additional Fed commentary following the June meeting minutes; (4) broader Dollar direction, given silver’s inverse sensitivity; (5) Chinese import demand data, an ongoing structural support factor for the metal.
Natural Gas
Fundamental Backdrop
US Henry Hub natural gas futures have pulled back around 3.9% to near $3.20/MMBtu, easing after this week’s climb that was driven primarily by an intensifying mid-summer heatwave blanketing more than two-thirds of the continental United States, sending gas-fired power generation — which supplies roughly 40% of US electricity — to multi-month highs. Lower 48 production has eased slightly to around 109.4 billion cubic feet per day in July from June’s 110.0 bcfd, while average flows to major LNG export terminals have risen to 18.1 bcfd, up from 17.4 bcfd in June, reflecting robust overseas demand. On the European side, TTF gas prices remain elevated near recent highs after climbing above €49/MWh this week, their highest in nearly a month, as Iran-linked shipping disruptions, a slower pace of seasonal storage replenishment (regional inventories are around 49% full versus almost 60% a year ago) and reduced Norwegian pipeline flows from extended seasonal maintenance combine to keep the region’s winter-supply outlook tight.
Technical Outlook
Henry Hub futures are consolidating just above the $3.18 buy-dip pivot after breaking decisively higher out of the prior range earlier this week, with the daily technical read still flashing a “Buy” signal across major moving averages despite today’s pullback. The 52-week range spans $2.48 to $7.83, underscoring the contract’s outsized volatility around weather and storage surprises. Resistance: $3.35 (today’s session high) and $3.55 (this trade’s target, the next material supply zone). Support: $3.18 (this trade’s buy-dip level, a round-number pivot within the recent range) and $3.04 (this trade’s stop, beneath which the heatwave-driven breakout would be called into question). A confirmed close above $3.55 would open a path toward the $4.00 handle, while a break below $3.04 would expose a return to the prior multi-week range.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) updated US weather forecasts and any extension or moderation of the current heatwave; (2) Thursday’s EIA natural gas storage report, due later in the US session; (3) further headlines on Norwegian pipeline maintenance and European storage-refill progress; (4) any fresh Iran-linked shipping disruptions that could add a geopolitical premium to European prices; (5) LNG export-facility flow data as a read on global demand strength.
CAC 40
Fundamental Backdrop
The CAC 40 is down around 2.1% at 8,258.8 in early European trade, tracking a broad risk-off move across the Stoxx 600 as chip and technology stocks tumble on an escalating Iran conflict, extending Wednesday’s roughly 2.2% slide that was driven by the ceasefire’s collapse and a rout in luxury and financial names. LVMH, Hermès and Kering had fallen sharply on Wednesday as risk aversion spiked, while BNP Paribas and Société Générale were hit by the surge in bond yields; today’s session shows those same sectors under renewed pressure alongside semiconductor names, leaving the index down for a third straight session on a weekly basis. The sell-off is unfolding against a genuinely mixed backdrop: French political uncertainty is a fresh headwind after far-right leader Marine Le Pen confirmed her 2027 presidential bid, with polls favouring her National Rally and the succession to President Macron still unresolved, while rising Bund and OAT yields on ECB hike bets add a valuation headwind for rate-sensitive sectors on top of the Iran-driven risk aversion.
Technical Outlook
The CAC 40 is trading near 8,258.8, close to Wednesday’s low near 8,253, having pulled back sharply from the 8,436-8,545 range seen earlier in the week as today’s chip-led sell-off deepens the decline. The index remains capped below its short-term moving averages following the sharp multi-session decline, with the index needing to reclaim those levels to shift the intraday structure back to constructive. Resistance: 8,380 (this week’s broken support-turned-resistance) and 8,420 (this trade’s target, the next material supply zone). Support: 8,200 (this trade’s buy-dip level, a round-number pivot within the current range) and 8,100 (this trade’s stop, beneath which the sell-off would likely resume toward the month’s lows). A confirmed close above 8,420 would open a path back toward 8,540, while a break below 8,100 would expose a deeper correction tied to the French political and rates overhang.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further developments in the Iran conflict and their impact on broad risk appetite; (2) any additional commentary on Le Pen’s 2027 candidacy and its market read-through; (3) the trajectory of German and French bond yields, given the valuation pressure on rate-sensitive sectors; (4) US weekly jobless claims at 13:30 BST, a key driver of the New York handover; (5) individual earnings or guidance updates from CAC 40 luxury and financial constituents.
EU 05Y (Germany 5-Year Bund Yield)
Fundamental Backdrop
Germany’s 5-year Bund yield is holding near 2.78%, close to its highest level in roughly two months, as it tracks the sharp move higher in the 10-year benchmark to around 3.10% — its highest since May. The driver is a genuinely hawkish repricing of the European Central Bank’s path: the same oil-driven inflation impulse from the Iran escalation that has lifted Brent crude for a third straight session is feeding directly into eurozone inflation expectations, with traders now pricing more than 30 basis points of additional ECB tightening this year and flagging September as the likeliest window for a follow-up hike. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel added to the hawkish tone on Thursday, warning that the Iran conflict’s economic impact on inflation “persists.” Adding a modest fiscal-side tailwind to yields at the long end, Germany’s cabinet approved its 2027 budget draft this week, with planned spending of €555.4 billion and borrowing raised to €203.6 billion, up from April’s €196.5 billion estimate.
Technical Outlook
The 5-year Bund yield has been in a broadly rising channel over the past month, tracking the “longest winning streak since January” flagged in the 10-year benchmark, as the market prices out earlier expectations for eurozone rate cuts. The yield’s break above the 2.70% pivot this week marks a shift in the intraday structure toward a more decisively bullish (yield-higher, price-lower) bias. Resistance (yield): 2.80% (this week’s high-water mark) and 2.90% (this trade’s target, the next material level if the ECB hike narrative extends). Support (yield): 2.70% (this trade’s buy-dip level, the recent breakout pivot) and 2.62% (this trade’s stop, beneath which the hawkish repricing would be called into question). A confirmed push through 2.90% would open a path toward 3.00%, while a drop back below 2.62% would suggest the market is paring ECB hike bets.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further ECB speaker commentary, particularly any follow-up from Isabel Schnabel or President Lagarde on the inflation outlook; (2) the trajectory of Brent crude and its pass-through to eurozone inflation expectations; (3) any German Bund auction results later in the week as a gauge of investor demand at these yield levels; (4) US weekly jobless claims and the FOMC minutes’ broader read-through for global rate expectations; (5) the ECB’s next policy meeting scheduled for 23 July, now the key event-risk window for this trade.
Ethereum
Fundamental Backdrop
Ethereum has bounced to near $1,752.22, testing the $1,751 daily pivot and approaching the $1,765 resistance zone, even as short-term momentum remains fragile and the broader trend stays bearish. Sentiment has collapsed to “Extreme Fear” on the broader crypto Fear & Greed Index, a reading of 20, while the total crypto market capitalisation shed a further 1.6% over the past 24 hours as the Iran-driven risk-off mood that first hit markets on Wednesday continues to work through the asset class. Bitcoin dominance sitting near 56% is a key structural headwind, indicating capital remains parked in the relative safety of BTC rather than rotating into ETH or the broader altcoin space, leaving Ethereum fighting an uphill battle regardless of network-level fundamentals. On a more constructive note, on-chain activity has continued to accelerate even as the price weakens: Uniswap V4 fees rose over 50% in the past week and Fluid DEX volumes are up nearly 94% over 30 days, according to DefiLlama data, while a newly launched independent nonprofit, Ethereum Institutional, aims to support institutional evaluation and deployment of Ethereum-based solutions at scale.
Technical Outlook
ETH has reclaimed the daily pivot near $1,751 and is testing the hourly R1 zone near $1,765, though it remains below the 50-day EMA near $1,803, keeping the broader trend capped. The hourly chart has firmed but is not yet convincingly bullish, with RSI near 48 and MACD only marginally positive, while the 200-hour EMA near $1,724 now offers a dynamic floor beneath the recent bounce. Resistance: $1,751 (daily pivot) and $1,765 (this trade’s sell-rally level, the hourly R1 zone). Support: $1,716 (the critical daily S1 pivot) and $1,655 (this trade’s target, the next material level if $1,716 breaks on a daily closing basis). A daily close below $1,716 would likely flip the macro regime more decisively bearish, while a reclaim of $1,765 followed by $1,803 would be needed to challenge the broader downtrend.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the $62,000-$63,000 area, given ETH’s continued high correlation; (2) any further deterioration in the broader crypto Fear & Greed Index; (3) progress updates on the Glamsterdam upgrade, currently targeted for Q3 2026 testing; (4) US weekly jobless claims and their read-through for risk appetite more broadly; (5) any fresh headlines on institutional ETH treasury accumulation, a recent source of structural demand.
XRP
Fundamental Backdrop
XRP is trading near $1.069, holding just above the psychological $1 level that has capped its downside through much of the past month, as the token remains caught between a genuinely constructive regulatory backdrop and a broader crypto market still working through the Iran-driven risk-off shock. On the bullish side, Ripple this week secured a full Crypto-Asset Service Provider licence under the EU’s MiCA framework from Luxembourg’s Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier, completing the company’s EU regulatory compliance and removing a longstanding overhang; whale activity and new XRP Ledger wallet creation have also reportedly hit multi-month highs. On the bearish side, the token remains in a short-term downtrend, with various previously-held support levels lost in June, and the US CLARITY Act — which would classify XRP as a commodity under federal law — has slipped from its original July 4 target, with the Senate not returning from recess until 13 July and a floor vote now more likely in late July or early August.
Technical Outlook
XRP stalled near $1.14 earlier this week as a breakout attempt struggled for volume, with buyers defending session lows but muted overall participation leaving traders waiting for confirmation above the $1.13-$1.14 resistance band. TradingView’s daily technical summary flags a strong sell signal from moving averages alongside mostly neutral oscillators, consistent with a market in consolidation rather than trend. Resistance: $1.10 (the key level flagged for a stronger bullish breakout) and $1.14 (this trade’s target, the recent stall zone). Support: $1.02 (this trade’s buy-dip level, just above the psychological pivot) and $0.98 (this trade’s stop, a break of which would call the $1 floor into serious question). A confirmed close above $1.14 on rising volume would open a path toward $1.20-$1.35, while a break below $0.98 would expose a deeper leg down toward last year’s lower range.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any follow-through market reaction to Ripple’s new MiCA licence and its use in EU institutional onboarding; (2) further developments on the US CLARITY Act’s Senate timeline; (3) Bitcoin’s broader price stability, given XRP’s continued sensitivity to BTC-led risk sentiment; (4) whale wallet and XRP Ledger activity data as a read on accumulation; (5) US weekly jobless claims and their impact on broader risk appetite into the New York session.
European Session FAQ
Common questions about today’s cross-asset price action
European Session Summary — Thursday, 9 July 2026 (Updated Mid-Session, 11:30 AM BST)
Thursday’s European session has turned decisively risk-off as the Iran conflict escalates further. The Stoxx 600 is down sharply, with the CAC 40 falling around 2.1% to 8,258.8 and the DAX off by a similar margin as chip and technology stocks lead a broad sell-off; the FTSE 100 is also lower, down around 1.5%. That risk-off impulse is unfolding against a genuinely concerning macro backdrop: Brent crude has extended its advance for a third straight session, holding above $77 a barrel after President Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding “over” and the US military struck Iran for a second consecutive day, and Trump followed overnight with a warning that further strikes could get “much worse.” That renewed oil-driven inflation impulse has pushed Germany’s 10-year Bund yield to its highest level since May near 3.10%, with the 5-year yield holding near 2.78% as traders price in over 30 basis points of additional ECB tightening this year, reinforced by ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s warning that the Iran conflict’s economic impact on inflation “persists.” Currency markets have absorbed this tension calmly: EUR/USD is holding near 1.1431, just below the 1.1450 area, on a softer Dollar and a firmer German trade balance, while GBP/USD holds near 1.3404, just above the 1.3400 handle, as fading UK political uncertainty following Keir Starmer’s resignation offers Sterling support. In commodities, Silver has rebounded sharply to around $59.12, reclaiming its former resistance zone, as Fed hike bets ease, while natural gas has pulled back to around $3.20 on both sides of the Atlantic after this week’s heatwave-driven surge. In crypto, sentiment remains fragile: Ethereum has bounced to around $1,752.22, testing the $1,765 resistance zone, with sentiment still at “Extreme Fear” near 22 and the total crypto market cap down around 2.1% to near $2.21 trillion, while XRP holds near $1.069, just above $1, after Trump’s overnight warning briefly knocked Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP lower. US weekly jobless claims, due later in the session, are the next major swing factor into the New York handover. Highest-conviction macro: fade the EU 5Y Bund yield’s rise toward 2.90%, or equivalently look to buy Bunds on weakness — the hawkish ECB repricing looks stretched relative to the still-unresolved and potentially reversible nature of the Iran-driven oil shock, forming a genuine contrarian case, though a further escalation in the conflict or a hawkish surprise from upcoming ECB speakers both carry real risk of the yield move extending further before it fades.
For the individual instruments: EUR/USD buy dips toward 1.1400, stop 1.1360, target 1.1480 — the Dollar’s persistent failure to capture its own haven bid is a genuine near-term tailwind, though the broader bearish trend since the April-June downfall and any fresh Iran escalation are real headwinds to a sustained breakout. GBP/USD buy dips toward 1.3375, stop 1.3335, target 1.3470 — fading UK political uncertainty is a genuine tailwind, though the broadly risk-averse market mood is a real source of two-way risk into the New York session. Silver buy dips toward $58.20, stop $57.20, target $61.55 — easing Fed hike bets and the reclaimed $59.06 resistance zone are genuine near-term tailwinds, though the metal’s break higher will need to hold to confirm the shift out of its prior bearish structure. Natural Gas buy dips toward $3.18, stop $3.04, target $3.55 — tight European storage remains a genuine tailwind, though today’s pullback from the heatwave-driven surge is a real headwind that could cap the rally near-term. CAC 40 buy dips toward 8,200, stop 8,100, target 8,420 — this is a genuine contrarian dip-buy against today’s sharp chip-led sell-off, since a stabilisation in tech and miners would be a real tailwind if it re-emerges, though the deepening 2.1% decline, rising Bund yields and French political uncertainty around Le Pen’s 2027 bid are real headwinds that could extend the slide before any recovery. EU 5Y Yield buy dips toward 2.70%, stop 2.62%, target 2.90% — the hawkish ECB repricing and Schnabel’s inflation warning are genuine near-term tailwinds for higher yields, though a de-escalation in the Iran conflict is a real catalyst that could quickly reverse the move. Ethereum sell rallies toward $1,765, stop $1,805, target $1,655 — the “Extreme Fear” sentiment reading and Bitcoin dominance near 56% are genuine bearish signals, though today’s bounce toward resistance and accelerating on-chain activity are real forces that could flip the setup. XRP buy dips toward $1.02, stop $0.98, target $1.14 — Ripple’s new MiCA licence and multi-month-high whale activity are genuine medium-term tailwinds, though the stalled technical breakout and delayed CLARITY Act timeline are real near-term headwinds. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are further Iran-conflict headlines, US weekly jobless claims data due at 13:30 BST, and whether the equity relief rally can broaden out or fades as bond-yield pressure intensifies into the New York handover. Size positions accordingly, and note that the Iran situation in particular remains fluid and carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment intraday.
Access Live European Markets →
