Forex Market Analysis — March 10, 2026 | EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF Trade Setups
Forex Market Analysis
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
A complete, data-driven breakdown of the global forex landscape — covering latest macro drivers, economic calendar events, deep technical analysis, and precise trade setups across EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/CHF.
Top Market News — Last 10 Hours
Central Bank Policy Watch
Economic Calendar — High-Impact Events (March 10–11, 2026)
All times in GMT. Events rated HIGH impact that experienced traders must monitor closely in the next 24 hours. Any deviation from consensus can move markets by 50–150 pips.
| Time (GMT) | Flag | Country | Event | Impact | Previous | Forecast | Pair(s) Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:30 | 🇦🇺 | Australia | NAB Business Confidence (Feb) | MED | +3 | +2 | AUD/USD, AUD crosses |
| 03:00 | 🇨🇳 | China | CPI (YoY) — February | HIGH | 0.5% | 0.4% | AUD/USD, NZD/USD, commodities |
| 03:00 | 🇨🇳 | China | PPI (YoY) — February | HIGH | −2.3% | −2.1% | AUD/USD, global risk tone |
| 07:00 | 🇬🇧 | United Kingdom | Claimant Count Change (Jan) (Released) | HIGH | 22.4K | 25.0K | GBP/USD, EUR/GBP |
| 07:00 | 🇬🇧 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate (Dec Q) (Released) | HIGH | 5.1% | 5.2% | GBP/USD, GBP/JPY |
| 10:00 | 🇪🇺 | Eurozone | ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) | HIGH | 48.1 | 52.0 | EUR/USD, EUR/GBP |
| 13:30 | 🇺🇸 | United States | NFIB Small Business Optimism (Feb) | MED | 102.8 | 103.0 | USD pairs broadly |
| 14:00 | 🇺🇸 | United States | JOLTS Job Openings (Jan) | HIGH | 7.60M | 7.65M | EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY |
| 18:00 | 🇺🇸 | United States | Federal Reserve Member Speeches | HIGH | — | — | All USD pairs |
| 23:50 | 🇯🇵 | Japan | Producer Price Index (YoY, Feb) | HIGH | 4.2% | 4.0% | USD/JPY, JPY crosses |
| Wed 13:30 | 🇺🇸 | United States | CPI (YoY, Feb) — Key Risk Event | HIGH | 2.4% | 2.3% | EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, all |
| Wed 19:00 | 🇺🇸 | United States | FOMC Meeting Minutes — Key Risk Event | HIGH | — | — | All USD pairs — Major vol expected |
EUR/USD — Technical Analysis & Trade Setup
| Resistance R2 | 1.1770 |
| Resistance R1 | 1.1700 |
| Pivot Point | 1.1656 |
| Current Price | 1.1634 |
| Support S1 | 1.1580 |
| Support S2 | 1.1500 |
| Major Support | 1.1200 |
Price action shows consecutive bearish candles closing below the 55-day SMA and the 100-day SMA. A bearish engulfing formed on the daily after failing the 1.1700 pivot zone, reinforcing the short-term downtrend shift. The 1.1500 handle remains the critical structural level for medium-term bulls.
Short-Term: Bearish — Price broke below Target Zone 2 (1.1650–1.1628).
Medium-Term: Transitioning bearish after the early-March selloff from 1.1950+.
Long-Term: Structural USD weakness underpins eventual recovery, but near-term risk is lower.
DXY Correlation: EUR is 57.6% of DXY — USD strength directly suppresses this pair.
• ECB: Paused easing, inflation near target. No near-term rate change.
• Fed: 2 cuts priced in for 2026; June likely first. USD temporarily benefiting from geopolitical haven demand.
• Oil shock: Strait of Hormuz disruption hurts Eurozone (net energy importer) more than the US — bearish EUR.
• Germany fiscal: €1T stimulus package is a medium-term EUR positive, but not yet priced fully.
GBP/USD — Technical Analysis & Trade Setup
| Resistance R2 | 1.3580 |
| Resistance R1 | 1.3500 |
| Pivot Point | 1.3430 |
| Current Price | 1.3380 |
| Support S1 | 1.3355 |
| Support S2 | 1.3280 |
| Key Fib Support | 1.3000 |
GBP/USD printed a Shooting Star on the daily following the UK unemployment release, confirming seller momentum at the 1.3500 pivot. The pair is on its second consecutive down day with bearish candles showing little wick on the upper side — a sign of sustained selling pressure, not mere profit-taking.
Short-Term: Bearish — now testing key Fibonacci support at 1.3355.
Medium-Term: Cable had been one of the stronger G10 pairs since Nov 2025 but is losing momentum.
Long-Term: J.P. Morgan targets 1.39 by March 2026 — already missed, reflecting pound’s persistent underperformance vs. European peers.
Key Driver: BoE dovishness + rising unemployment = sustained GBP headwinds.
• UK Jobs: Unemployment at 5.2% (highest since Q1 2021). Benefit claims up 28.8K.
• UK Wages: Annual wage growth at near four-year low — reduces inflation pressure, opens door for BoE cuts.
• BoE: “Deficient demand” warning from MPC’s Taylor — dovish lean in place.
• Politics: UK political uncertainty adds to GBP risk premium, keeping the pound underperforming EUR, CHF, and Scandinavian crosses.
USD/CAD — Technical Analysis & Trade Setup
| Resistance R2 | 1.4120 |
| Resistance R1 (Channel Top) | 1.3750 |
| Pivot Point | 1.3680 |
| Current Price | 1.3678 |
| Support S1 | 1.3580 |
| Support S2 (Key Level) | 1.3500 |
| Major Support | 1.3400 |
USD/CAD formed a Doji at the upper channel boundary (1.3750 area) last week, reflecting indecision at resistance. This was followed by a Bearish Harami confirming rejection. The series of lower highs within the descending channel structure makes this a textbook channel-range trade.
Short-Term: Neutral-to-bearish. Trading near the midpoint of the descending channel.
Medium-Term: Bearish. SMA50 (1.3820) remains below SMA200 (1.4010) — classic bearish cross.
Long-Term: RBC Capital Markets targets USD/CAD at 1.3400 by end-2026, conditional on BoC stability and USMCA resolution.
Oil Link: CAD is a petro-currency — WTI above $90 typically supports CAD, adding downward pressure to this pair.
• Oil: WTI near $92 from Middle East supply disruption typically supports CAD (positive for Canada’s energy exports).
• BoC: Potential easing pause as Canadian GDP tracks slightly above ~0–1% potential growth. Narrows divergence with Fed.
• USMCA Risk: July 1 Joint Review creates headline risk for CAD. Market uncertainty alone caps gains.
• Fed Cuts: If Fed cuts first, USD weakness would push USD/CAD toward 1.35 key support.
USD/CHF — Technical Analysis & Trade Setup
| Resistance R2 | 0.8100 |
| Resistance R1 (Broken Support) | 0.7980 |
| Pivot Point | 0.7962 |
| Current Price | 0.7955 |
| Support S1 | 0.7925 |
| Support S2 | 0.7880 |
| Major Target | 0.7700 |
USD/CHF has printed a classic Three Black Crows pattern on the daily — three consecutive long bearish candles with little upper wick. The decisive break below 0.79 (former major support) has confirmed a bearish rectangle breakdown, with Investtech analysis projecting extension toward 0.77. This is the strongest directional signal among today’s four pairs.
Short-Term: Strongly bearish. Rectangle breakdown confirmed below 0.79.
Medium-Term: Bearish. CHF has been the second-strongest G10 currency (+13% YTD in 2025) — structural franc demand continues.
Long-Term: CHF/JPY at near 200.00 reflects the structural divergence — CHF strength is a persistent theme.
SNB Risk: SNB historically intervenes against CHF strength, but this dynamic is most likely to play out in EUR/CHF first.
• CHF Safe Haven: Middle East geopolitical risk is driving safe-haven flows into both USD and CHF — but CHF is winning the safe-haven battle versus USD recently.
• Fed Cuts: Every rate cut expectation reduces the USD-CHF interest rate differential advantage.
• SNB at Zero: Despite 0% rates, CHF remains strong — driven by Switzerland’s current account surplus and haven demand.
• Caution: Oversold RSI (28.91) warrants caution chasing shorts — wait for a pullback to better entry.
At-a-Glance: All Four Pairs
| Pair | Price | Bias | RSI | Candlestick Signal | Entry | Stop Loss | TP1 / TP2 | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1634 | BEARISH | 32.1 | Bearish Engulfing | 1.1680–1.1700 | 1.1745 | 1.1580 / 1.1500 | 1:2.1 / 1:3.8 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3380 | BEARISH | 38.6 | Shooting Star | 1.3420–1.3450 | 1.3510 | 1.3355 / 1.3280 | 1:1.8 / 1:3.5 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3678 | RANGE-BEAR | 48.3 | Doji at Resistance | 1.3720–1.3750 | 1.3810 | 1.3580 / 1.3500 | 1:2.2 / 1:3.8 |
| USD/CHF | 0.7955 | STRONG BEAR | 28.9 | Three Black Crows | 0.7975–0.7990 | 0.8045 | 0.7880 / 0.7700 | 1:2.0 / 1:5.3 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Conclusion & Trader Checklist
Tuesday, March 10, 2026 opens with forex markets navigating a complex intersection of geopolitical shock, central bank divergence, and technical breakdowns. The dominant theme is a US Dollar caught between two opposing forces: safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict, and structural erosion of USD confidence as markets price in Federal Reserve rate cuts for later in 2026.
All four pairs analyzed today carry a bearish USD bias in their respective structures — EUR/USD and GBP/USD through confirmed downtrends on the pair itself, USD/CAD and USD/CHF through downward-trending price structures. For USD/CHF specifically, the break below 0.79 is the most technically significant event of the week, projecting toward 0.77 medium-term.
The most important tactical insight for today: patience over aggression. USD/CHF is too oversold to short immediately. USD/CAD is at mid-channel, not at the ideal sell zone. GBP/USD is falling but the ideal entry is a bounce. EUR/USD provides the cleanest active opportunity — a sell-on-bounce from 1.1680 toward 1.1580 and 1.1500. Let price come to your levels rather than chasing momentum.
Wednesday’s US CPI and FOMC Minutes are the pivot events of this week. Position sizes should reflect that elevated event risk.
