European Session Report: Dollar dominance and the Hormuz oil shock pressure the Euro and Sterling as the FTSE steadies after Thursday’s yield-driven slide | Technical Analysis – European Session | 25-09-2026
European Session Report: Dollar dominance and the Hormuz oil shock pressure the Euro and Sterling as the FTSE steadies after Thursday’s yield-driven slide
EUR/USD · GBP/USD · Silver · Crude Oil · FTSE 100 · ETH/USD · Solana — technical analysis with conditional reference levels
Nine Stories Driving the European Session
Ranked by expected market impact into the London and Frankfurt open
Euro holds near a two-month low despite strong Eurozone PMI
EUR/USD trades near 1.1374 as broad Dollar strength offsets Eurozone private-sector activity expanding at its fastest pace in nearly three-and-a-half years.
Dollar StrengthCable stays capped as gilt yields sit near 2008-era highs
GBP/USD holds near 1.3212 even as 10-year gilt yields near 5.20-5.23% fail to support Sterling, with the Autumn Budget and BoE gilt-sale plans in focus.
Gilt YieldsOil presses higher as Iran warns conflict could reach the Indian Ocean
WTI trades near $93 and Brent near $105-107 as Hormuz tanker transits fall well below their 10-day average amid an escalating Iran-Israel-US conflict.
Hormuz RiskFTSE steadies after Thursday’s oil-and-yield driven slide
The FTSE 100 closed 25.27 points lower at 10,679.99 on Thursday as surging oil prices and elevated global bond yields weighed on European equities broadly.
Yield & Oil PressureSilver extends pullback from last week’s highs
Silver holds near $63.68 an ounce, down from highs near $67 earlier this week, as a firmer Dollar and rising Treasury yields pull capital out of precious metals.
Dollar PressureSolana extends gains on ETF inflows and treasury buying
SOL trades near $116 as spot-ETF assets surpass $1 billion and Forward Industries’ 6.9 million-SOL treasury strategy keeps institutional demand in focus.
ETF InflowsEthereum holds steady near $2,700 on institutional accumulation
ETH trades near $2,693 as Bitmine Immersion continues adding to a treasury nearing 6 million ETH ahead of the Glamsterdam testnet fork due September 28.
Institutional BuyingTreasury yields hold near 19-year highs into the European open
The 10-year sits near its highest since July 2007 after Wednesday’s PMI-driven surge, keeping the Dollar broadly supported across European majors.
Fed Hike BetsEurozone PMI hits 3.5-year high while UK PMI slows
Stronger Eurozone activity data lifts ECB hike odds to roughly 40% for a second 2026 move, while a softer UK PMI print adds to Bank of England caution.
Diverging Data| Market | Level | Change | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar Index (DXY) | ~101.0 | Two-month high | Dollar firm on hawkish Fed remarks and strong US PMI data |
| US 10-Year Yield | 5.11% | Near 2007 high | Highest since July 2007; Fed hike odds near 70-72% |
| UK 10-Year Gilt Yield | ~5.20-5.23% | Near 2008 high | Autumn Budget (28 Oct) and BoE gilt-sale plans in focus |
| EUR/USD | 1.1374 | -0.15% | Near a two-month low despite strong Eurozone PMI |
| GBP/USD | 1.3212 | -0.04% | Range 1.3210-1.3223; capped despite elevated gilt yields |
| Silver (Spot) | $63.68/oz | ~Flat | Down from ~$67 highs on firm Dollar and yields |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | $93.02 | +1.86% | Brent near $105-107 on Iran/Hormuz shipping risk |
| FTSE 100 | 10,680 | -0.24% | Thursday close; stabilising this morning near pivot |
| Ethereum (ETH/USD) | $2,693 | +0.41% | 24h range $2,635-$2,701; institutional accumulation continues |
| Solana (SOL/USD) | $116.32 | +1.95% | 24h range $112.72-$117.65; ETF and treasury inflows |
Levels are indicative and rounded; index, commodity and crypto figures carry a ~ where taken from other trackers.
Technical Levels for Seven Instruments
Each analysis is conditional and lists a bias, resistance and support levels. Levels are technical references, not forecasts.
EUR/USD
Session Performance
EUR/USD trades near 1.1374, down about 0.15%, holding close to its weakest level in nearly two months after Wednesday’s hot US PMI data and hawkish Fed remarks lifted the Dollar broadly.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Price remains capped below 1.1400 even though Eurozone PMI expanded at its fastest pace in almost three-and-a-half years and German business sentiment hit a three-year high, keeping money markets pricing at least one more ECB hike this year. A close below 1.1350 opens 1.1300 and 1.1250.
Alternative Scenario
A pullback in US yields or a further hawkish repricing of ECB hike odds toward the ~40% priced for a second 2026 move could lift the pair back toward 1.1440-1.1490.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R11.1400 | S11.1350 |
| R21.1440 | S21.1300 |
| R31.1490 | S31.1250 |
GBP/USD
Session Performance
GBP/USD trades near 1.3212, little changed on the day, within a tight 1.3210-1.3223 range as broad Dollar strength offsets elevated UK borrowing costs.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
UK 10-year gilt yields near 5.20-5.23% would normally support Sterling, but a softer September UK PMI print and a wider-than-expected August budget deficit ahead of the 28 October Autumn Budget are keeping Cable capped. A break below 1.3160 opens 1.3100 and the 52-week low near 1.3009.
Alternative Scenario
Easing US yields or reduced fiscal-supply concerns around the Budget could lift the pair back toward 1.3260-1.3320.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R11.3260 | S11.3160 |
| R21.3320 | S21.3100 |
| R31.3395 | S31.3009 |
Silver
Session Performance
Silver holds near $63.68 an ounce, little changed on the day but still extending a multi-session pullback from highs near $67 earlier this week, as a firmer Dollar and elevated Treasury yields pull capital out of precious metals.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Silver remains 8.65% lower year-to-date after touching an all-time high near $121.67 in January, with the gold-silver ratio near 67 flagging relative underperformance versus gold. A close below 63.00 opens 62.00 and 60.00.
Alternative Scenario
A pause in the Dollar’s advance, or renewed safe-haven demand tied to the Iran conflict, could lift silver back toward 65.00-67.00.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R165.00 | S162.00 |
| R267.00 | S260.00 |
| R371.00 | S355.00 |
Crude Oil (WTI)
Session Performance
WTI trades near $93.02, up about 1.9%, while Brent holds near $105-107 a barrel after a senior Iranian military official warned the conflict could expand into the Indian Ocean if the US or Israel strikes again.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Only 10 commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, well below the 10-day average of 17, while Saudi Arabia’s shipping workaround now carries war-risk insurance costs nearly as high as sending tankers through the strait itself. A close above 94.50 opens 97.00 and 100.00.
Alternative Scenario
Reports that US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a deal to lift naval blockades and ease sanctions could send prices back toward 89.50-87.00 if talks progress.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R197.00 | S190.00 |
| R2100.00 | S287.00 |
| R3105.00 | S384.00 |
FTSE 100
Session Performance
The FTSE 100 closed 25.27 points, or 0.24%, lower at 10,679.99 on Thursday, with the index now consolidating near its daily pivot around 10,708 as European markets attempt to stabilise.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Thursday’s weakness tracked the combination of the US 10-year yield climbing to 5.11% and Brent crude jumping to $107.25 from $102.74, both of which stoke inflation concerns that could keep central banks tighter for longer. Holding above 10,690 keeps 10,829 and the 52-week high near 10,990 in view.
Alternative Scenario
A further spike in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict, or renewed gilt-yield pressure, could send the index back toward 10,600-10,500.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R110,829 | S110,690 |
| R210,910 | S210,600 |
| R310,990 | S310,500 |
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Session Performance
ETH trades near $2,693, up about 0.4% over 24 hours, with market cap near $328.8 billion as Bitmine Immersion Technologies continues adding to a treasury approaching 6 million ETH.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Price holds above the $2,600 support zone with the Glamsterdam upgrade’s Sepolia testnet fork due September 28 acting as a near-term catalyst. A close above 2,700 opens 2,775 and the September target near 2,800.
Alternative Scenario
A broader risk-off move tied to rising Fed hike odds or Middle East escalation could send ETH back toward the 2,600-2,534 support band.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R12,700 | S12,634 |
| R22,775 | S22,600 |
| R32,800 | S32,534 |
Solana (SOL/USD)
Session Performance
SOL trades near $116.32, up roughly 2.0% over 24 hours, with market cap near $68.4 billion, forming a high-level consolidation with a bullish bias above $110.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Spot Solana ETF assets from issuers including Bitwise and Fidelity have surpassed $1 billion, while Forward Industries’ treasury strategy now holds over 6.9 million SOL. A close above 117.65 opens 120.00 and 125.00.
Alternative Scenario
A broader crypto de-risking tied to rising Fed hike odds or Middle East escalation could send SOL back toward the 112.00-108.00 support band.
Chart by TradingView
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1117.65 | S1112.00 |
| R2120.00 | S2108.00 |
| R3125.00 | S3100.00 |
What Is Moving Europe
Macro, policy and event risk behind the session
Dollar Dominance on Hawkish Fed and Strong US PMI
DriverThe Dollar Index holds near two-month highs after Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected US PMI data and a series of hawkish Fed remarks.
ContextOctober Fed hike odds sit near 70-72% per CME FedWatch, keeping the Dollar broadly supported against European majors.
WatchFriday’s US durable goods orders and the University of Michigan sentiment final print.
UK Gilts Stay Elevated, Pressuring FTSE and Sterling
DriverUK 10-year gilt yields hold near 5.20-5.23%, close to 2008-era highs, after a wider-than-expected August budget deficit of £18.3 billion.
ContextAttention is turning to the 28 October Autumn Budget and the Bank of England’s annual gilt-sale plans, both key swing factors for Sterling.
WatchAny pre-Budget fiscal signalling and further BoE commentary on the pace of quantitative tightening.
Iran Conflict Keeps Oil Bid Into Europe
DriverA senior Iranian military official warned the conflict could expand into the Indian Ocean, while Hormuz tanker transits stay well below average.
ContextBrent has surged from below $100 to near $105-107 this week, with Saudi Arabia’s shipping workaround now nearly as costly as transiting Hormuz directly.
WatchAny sign of a US-Iran deal to lift naval blockades, and further Houthi missile activity near Saudi export terminals.
ECB Tightening Bets Rise on Strong Eurozone Data
DriverEurozone private-sector activity expanded in September at its fastest pace in almost three-and-a-half years, alongside a three-year high in German business sentiment.
ContextMoney markets now price at least one 25bp ECB hike by year-end, with roughly 40% odds of a second, even as the Euro stays pinned near two-month lows.
WatchAny further ECB commentary on the pace of tightening and next week’s flash inflation data.
Precious Metals Retreat as Yields and the Dollar Firm
DriverSilver has pulled back to near $63.68 an ounce from highs near $67 earlier this week as a firmer Dollar and elevated Treasury yields weigh on the metals complex.
ContextSilver remains up sharply year-on-year after January’s all-time high near $121.67, but is down 8.65% year-to-date amid the recent retracement.
WatchWhether safe-haven flows tied to the Iran conflict re-emerge to offset the Dollar-driven pressure.
Crypto Institutional Inflows Support ETH and SOL
DriverContinued Bitmine Immersion ETH accumulation and Forward Industries’ 6.9-million-SOL treasury strategy are underpinning both major altcoins.
ContextBitcoin holds near $84,000, providing a steadier backdrop even as Fed hike bets remain a headwind for risk assets broadly.
WatchEthereum’s Glamsterdam testnet fork on September 28 and further spot-ETF flow data for Solana.
Conditional Outlook
Technical, fundamental and event factors combined into conditional scenarios. No unconditional forecasts are made.
EUR/USD & GBP/USD Outlook
If Fed hike bets keep the Dollar broadly bid and UK fiscal concerns persist into the Budget, EUR/USD should press 1.1300-1.1250 and GBP/USD should slip to 1.3160-1.3100.
If US data disappoints and yields ease, EUR/USD could reclaim 1.1440-1.1490 and GBP/USD could recover 1.3260-1.3320 on reduced Dollar demand.
Silver & Crude Oil Outlook
If the Dollar stays firm and the Iran conflict keeps escalating, silver should slip to 62.00-60.00 while Crude Oil (WTI) should press 97.00-100.00 on further Hormuz supply risk.
If a US-Iran deal materialises and the Dollar eases, silver could recover 65.00-67.00 while WTI could retreat to 89.50-87.00.
FTSE 100 Outlook
If oil prices keep climbing and global yields stay elevated, the FTSE 100 should retreat toward 10,600-10,500 on renewed inflation concerns.
If oil eases from current levels and bond markets stabilise, the FTSE 100 should test 10,829-10,910 as risk appetite improves.
Ethereum & Solana Outlook
If institutional accumulation and ETF inflows continue alongside Bitcoin near $84,000, ETH should press 2,775-2,800 and Solana should test 120.00-125.00.
If rising Fed hike odds or Middle East escalation trigger a broader crypto de-risking, ETH could pull back to 2,600-2,534 and Solana could retreat to 112.00-108.00.
Summary
Friday’s European session is a Dollar-and-oil story, with the Iran conflict and the UK’s Autumn Budget as swing factors. EUR/USD near 1.1374 sits close to a two-month low despite the strongest Eurozone PMI print in nearly three-and-a-half years, while GBP/USD (1.3212) stays capped even with UK gilt yields near 2008-era highs, as traders weigh next month’s Autumn Budget against broad Dollar strength. Crude Oil is the standout mover, with WTI near $93 and Brent near $105-107 as the Iran conflict raises fresh Hormuz shipping-risk concerns, a dynamic that helped pull the FTSE 100 (~10,680) 0.24% lower on Thursday even as the index stabilises this morning. Silver near $63.68 an ounce extends a pullback from last week’s highs as the firm Dollar and elevated yields weigh on precious metals. In crypto, Ethereum (~$2,693) holds steady on continued institutional accumulation while Solana (~$116.32) extends gains on ETF inflows and treasury buying. Key catalysts ahead: any US-Iran diplomatic progress, US durable goods data, further ECB and BoE commentary, and Ethereum’s Glamsterdam testnet fork on September 28.
European Session FAQ
Answers based on the current session
Why is EUR/USD near a two-month low despite strong Eurozone data?
Broad Dollar strength on hawkish Fed remarks and hot US PMI data has outweighed the boost from Eurozone private-sector activity expanding at its fastest pace in nearly three-and-a-half years and rising ECB hike odds.
Why isn’t Sterling benefiting from higher gilt yields?
UK 10-year gilt yields near 5.20-5.23% reflect fiscal-supply concerns ahead of the 28 October Autumn Budget rather than a rosier growth or rate outlook, so the currency has not received its usual lift from higher yields.
Why are oil prices surging this week?
An escalating Iran conflict, including a warning that the war could expand into the Indian Ocean, has cut Strait of Hormuz tanker transits well below average and pushed Saudi Arabia’s shipping workaround costs close to those of transiting the strait directly.
Why did the FTSE 100 fall on Thursday?
The index tracked a combination of the US 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 5.11% and Brent crude jumping to $107.25 a barrel, both of which raise inflation concerns that could keep central banks tighter for longer.
Why is silver falling even as gold and oil stay elevated?
Silver’s pullback from highs near $67 reflects the drag of a firmer Dollar and rising Treasury yields on precious metals broadly, a dynamic that has outweighed any safe-haven support tied to the Iran conflict.
Why are Ethereum and Solana holding up despite Fed hawkishness?
Continued institutional accumulation of ETH by corporate treasuries and growing spot-ETF inflows into Solana, alongside Bitcoin holding near $84,000, are providing a steadier backdrop for both tokens even as Fed hike bets weigh on risk assets more broadly.
