US Session Summary — Wednesday, 2 September 2026 (Live Update)

Wednesday’s US session is trading on the back of a sharp overnight escalation, after Iran retaliated for Tuesday’s US strikes on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz by hitting American bases with rockets and drones and striking additional targets in the UAE and Jordan. The widening conflict follows Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s reinforced hawkish tone on inflation, which has pushed the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the 15-16 September FOMC meeting to roughly 65-66%, up sharply from around 40% a week ago.

The US 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 4.80%, its highest level since January 2025, pausing after a five-session rally that had pushed it above 4.81%. USD/CAD has climbed to around 1.3894, as a broad Dollar bid built on hawkish Fed repricing outweighs oil’s usual support for the commodity-linked Loonie, with the Bank of Canada widely expected to hold rates at today’s meeting. USD/CHF is firm near 0.8130, up for a second straight session, as the widening gap between a Fed that looks close to hiking and a Swiss National Bank anchored near zero continues to lift the pair, even after a stronger-than-expected Swiss PMI rebound.

Crude Oil is extending its advance to $91.98 (Brent near $95) after Iran’s retaliatory strikes, even though US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed a record 17 million barrels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and Gold is trading near $4,370.76, clawing back part of Tuesday’s slide to a two-week low but still missing its usual safe-haven bid as yields and the Dollar dominate. Nasdaq 100 futures are lower near 29,069.50 as rising yields and oil squeeze AI and chip names, with the VIX up more than 9%, even as Dell’s strong earnings offer a single-stock offset. Crypto markets are sharply lower, with BTC/USD easing toward $77,000 and XRP sliding toward $1.33 as the reignited Iran war drives a broad risk-off move despite strong underlying ETF demand for both assets.

Highest-conviction session idea: favour dips in the Fed-supported Dollar complex and the conflict-driven Crude Oil and US 10-Year Yield trades, while fading Nasdaq 100 rallies into resistance and treating Gold’s failure to rally on the Iran war as a genuine bearish signal, staying alert to any further escalation or de-escalation headline as the dominant swing factor for risk sentiment into the FOMC’s 15-16 September decision.

For the individual instruments: USD/CAD buy dips toward 1.3830, stop 1.3760, target 1.4020 — the widening US-Canada rate gap is a genuine tailwind, though oil’s advance toward $92 is a real source of two-way risk. USD/CHF buy dips toward 0.8060, stop 0.8000, target 0.8220 — the widening Fed-SNB rate gap is a genuine tailwind, though a stronger Swiss PMI and renewed safe-haven flows into the Franc are a real source of two-way risk. Gold sell rallies toward $4,460, stop $4,520, target $4,180 — hawkish Fed hike bets are a genuine headwind, though the widening Iran war and record central-bank buying are a real source of two-way risk. Crude Oil buy dips toward $89.50, stop $86.50, target $96.00 — Iran’s retaliatory strikes are a genuine tailwind, though the record Hormuz transit volume and any de-escalation headline are a real source of two-way risk. Nasdaq 100 sell rallies toward 29,350, stop 29,650, target 28,400 — rising yields are a genuine headwind, though Dell’s strong earnings and guidance are a real source of two-way risk. US 10Y Yield buy dips toward 4.70%, stop 4.60%, target 5.00% — hawkish Fed hike bets and oil-driven inflation risk are a genuine tailwind, though a soft ADP or Non-Farm Payrolls print is a real source of two-way risk. BTC/USD buy dips toward $73,000, stop $69,000, target $84,000 — August’s strong ETF inflow month is a genuine tailwind, though hawkish-Fed-driven crypto risk-off is a real source of two-way risk. XRP buy dips toward $1.20, stop $1.10, target $1.55 — a record week of ETF inflows is a genuine tailwind, though broader crypto risk-off is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variable for the rest of the day is the market’s ongoing digestion of Iran’s retaliatory strikes alongside today’s ADP Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS data, positioning into Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls, and the FOMC’s 15-16 September decision. Size positions accordingly, and note that fast-moving Middle East headlines carry genuine event risk that could exaggerate moves in either direction.

Prices and levels in this report are indicative intraday figures compiled from live coverage and may differ from your broker’s feed. This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.