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Capital Street FX

Asian markets rise as weak US jobs data

Nikkei Hits 3-Month High as Weak US Jobs Data Eases Fed Bets.

October 5, 2026
CSFX Qac
Asian Session Report: Nikkei Hits 3-Month High as Weak US Jobs Ease Fed Hike Bets, While Dollar Firms
Asian Session Report · Live · Monday, 5 October 2026

Asian Session Report: Nikkei Hits 3-Month High as Weak US Jobs Ease Fed Hike Bets, While Dollar Firms

Asian shares rose on Monday after US payrolls of just 29,000 cut October Fed hike odds to roughly 20-25%. The Nikkei is up about 2.0% near 69,702, the dollar firmed with EUR/USD at a 16-month low, and USD/JPY holds near 158.06 despite sterner talk from Tokyo.

Copper is near $6.59, December corn 497.25, the Hang Seng 23,920, AUD/USD 0.6938, Dogecoin $0.0953 and Litecoin $69.79. Focus: Fed minutes on Wednesday, US ISM services today, Gulf headlines and Japanese intervention risk.

Prices as of 10:30 IST (05:00 GMT); Nikkei, USD/JPY, Hang Seng, AUD/USD, Litecoin, Gold and BTC/USD per live Investing.com
Section 3 · Top Stories

Top Stories Moving the Market

EQUITIES · JAPAN
Nikkei 69,702+2.0%

Nikkei hits three-month high on AI rally

Tech-led gains lifted the Nikkei about 2% to 69,702 as soft US jobs cut Fed hike bets; MSCI Asia-Pacific is up 0.5-1.1%. Korea and mainland China are closed.

FX · USD/JPY
158.06USD/JPY ~flat

Tokyo toughens tone, yen barely moves

Officials say Japan is out of deflation and ready to act with the US on volatility, but high yields keep USD/JPY near 158.

EQUITIES · HONG KONG
23,920HSI -0.22%

Hang Seng extends losses after worst day since March

Stock Connect is suspended until 8 October and mainland China is shut, leaving Hong Kong thinly supported.

MACRO · US JOBS
+29KUnemp. 4.2%

Payrolls miss big, wages weakest since 2021

September payrolls rose 29,000 vs about 84-95K expected, August was revised to 133K and hourly earnings grew 3% y/y. October hike odds sit near 20-25%; the 10-year yield is near 5.27%.

ENERGY · BRENT
Brent ~$100.4Brent -1.6%

Oil slips as Gulf exports recover

A 100-million-barrel G7 stock release, rising Gulf exports and a $5 Aramco discount to Asia offset Houthi attack claims. Iran reportedly rejects new US proposals and keeps Hormuz shut.

METALS · GOLD
$4,132Gold -1.0%

Gold extends slide toward $4,130 after 3.4% weekly drop

Deutsche Bank calls gold oversold, but high real yields and a firm dollar cap rebounds. Support broke below $4,230 last week.

CRYPTO · BTC/USD
$85,458BTC +1.4%

Bitcoin squeezes shorts above $85K

BTC reached near $86.8K on Sunday after payrolls; resistance sits at $87,000-87,500 and ETF inflows have faded.

FX · EUR/USD
1.1245EUR/USD -0.1%

Euro hits lowest since May 2025

French bond stress and reports of an early Spanish election weigh; MUFG recommends shorting EUR/JPY toward 172.

Section 4 · Trade Ideas

Technical Summary & Trade Ideas

USD/JPY

FX · Tokyo talks up the yen, high US yields cap it
158.06near 158
Neutral · range 157.50-158.50; a break of 159.50 raises intervention risk
S2156.50
S1157.50
PIVOT158.06
R1158.50
R2159.50
156.50158.06159.50
USD/JPY daily chart
Chart by TradingView

USD/JPY holds near 158 even as Economy Minister Kiuchi says Japan is out of deflation and Finance Minister Katayama says Tokyo and Washington stand ready to act on excessive volatility. High US yields and haven demand outweigh the rhetoric. Reuters analysis suggests the pair may have topped below 160; the September 8 low at 152.89 is the level that would signal a regime change. Japan’s services PMI of 51.3 with sharp output-price gains keeps BoJ hike talk alive. All levels are conditional.

Last158.06
Support157.50 / 156.50
Resistance158.50 / 159.50
Key floor152.89 (8 Sep)

AUD/USD

FX · Soft jobs help, but 11-week lows and firm USD weigh
0.6938-0.27% · 4th weekly loss
Neutral-bearish below 0.6955; 0.6900 then 0.6850 are support
S20.6850
S10.6900
PIVOT0.6938
R10.6955
R20.7000
0.68500.69380.7000
AUD/USD daily chart
Chart by TradingView

The Aussie slipped back toward 0.6938 in late Asia as the dollar firmed on French fiscal stress. Australia’s services PMI eased to 51.9 with job cuts and rising price pressure, while the RBA cash rate sits at 4.60% and November hike odds are only about 20-25%. FXStreet notes the pair stays below its 20-day EMA near 0.704 with RSI near 28, so oversold conditions may slow downside. The Fed minutes on Wednesday are the next trigger.

Last0.6938
Support0.6900 / 0.6850
Resistance0.6955 / 0.7000
RBA cash rate4.60%

Copper (HG)

Metals · Holding $6.5-6.6 support as China is shut
$6.59+0.16% · Dec contract
Neutral · $6.53 holds; $6.63 (200-period SMA) is the test
S26.39
S16.53
PIVOT6.59
R16.63
R26.78
6.396.596.78
Copper daily chart
Chart by TradingView

Copper trades near $6.59 per pound on the Investing.com Dec contract, below September’s record near $6.85-6.93 after softer Chinese demand data. Mainland China is closed until Wednesday, so liquidity is thin. Investing.com’s daily technical read is Strong Sell while weekly and monthly stay Strong Buy. A softer dollar after weak payrolls helps, but yields near 5.27% cap rallies. Chinese conditions on the Anglo Teck deal and Freeport’s in-line Q3 output are background headlines.

Last$6.59
Support6.53 / 6.39
Resistance6.63 / 6.78
52-wk range4.82 – 6.93

Corn (ZC Dec)

Agri · Near six-week lows as harvest pace and stocks weigh
497.25-1.00% · Fri close
Bearish below 502; 495 then 487 are support
S2487
S1495
PIVOT497.25
R1502
R2510
487497.25510
Corn weekly chart
Chart by TradingView

December corn sits at 497.25 cents on Investing.com, near the six-week low of about 495 hit on Friday after a larger-than-expected USDA stocks estimate. StoneX trimmed its US yield estimate, but harvest is progressing and a hefty soybean crop adds to grain-wide pressure. Investing.com technicals are Strong Sell on daily readings. USDA Crop Progress (Monday, 16:00 ET) and the 9 October WASDE-driven yield debate are the next catalysts.

Last497.25 c/bu
Support495 / 487
Resistance502 / 510
52-wk range406.25 – 549.75

Hang Seng (HSI)

Indices · Weak after worst day since March; Stock Connect shut
23,920-0.22% · prev 23,972
Neutral-bearish below 24,100; 23,865 then 23,500 are support
S223,500
S123,865
PIVOT23,920
R124,100
R224,613
23,50023,92024,613
Hang Seng Index daily chart
Chart by TradingView

The Hang Seng is down about 0.2% near 23,920 after Friday’s 2.6% plunge, its biggest drop since March, as US yields and oil weigh and southbound Stock Connect flows remain suspended until 8 October. Mainland markets are closed through Wednesday, so Hong Kong is the only live gauge of China sentiment. The index is down about 5.9% over the past month. A reclaim of 24,100 would ease pressure; 24,613 is the pre-holiday close.

Last23,920
Support23,865 / 23,500
Resistance24,100 / 24,613
Connect resumes8 Oct

Dogecoin (DOGE/USD)

Crypto · Bounces with Bitcoin on softer Fed bets
$0.0953+3.1% · 24h
Neutral-bullish above $0.0925; $0.1000 is the test
S20.0880
S10.0925
PIVOT0.0953
R10.1000
R20.1056
0.08800.09530.1056

DOGE trades near $0.095 as Bitcoin pushes toward $86K on softer US jobs data. Benzinga notes ETF inflows and futures open interest have faded, with September’s $0.1056 high acting as resistance and the September low near $0.078. A hold above $0.0925 keeps the bounce intact; failure targets $0.0880. Oil above $100 and Wednesday’s Fed minutes are the main risks.

Last$0.0953
Support0.0925 / 0.0880
Resistance0.1000 / 0.1056
Sept high$0.1056

Litecoin (LTC/USD)

Crypto · Firm bid, still capped near $72-73
$69.79+1.1% · 24h
Neutral-bullish above $69.00; $72.50 then $75 are targets
S266.30
S169.00
PIVOT69.79
R172.50
R275.00
66.3069.7975.00
Litecoin daily chart
Chart by TradingView

LTC trades near $69.79 (+1.1% on the day), roughly flat on the week but about 41% above a month ago. It follows Bitcoin’s bounce, which helped from short squeezes above $85,000. Immediate support is $69.00 and then $66.30; resistance sits at $72.50 and the $75 round number. Fading ETF momentum and elevated yields keep upside conditional.

Last$69.79
Support69.00 / 66.30
Resistance72.50 / 75.00
1-month change+41%
Section 5 · Next Session

What to Expect from the Next Session

  1. US ISM services and Crop Progress. A strong ISM after a 58.4 flash composite could revive hike bets and lift USD/JPY toward 158.50; a miss pushes it back to 157.50 and supports copper and crypto.
  2. Fed minutes on Wednesday. Officials’ guidance is for one more hike; a hawkish tone would pressure AUD/USD below 0.6900 and Dogecoin below $0.0925, while a dovish read favours risk assets.
  3. Japan and the Gulf. Rhetoric from Katayama and BoJ’s Uchida raises yen-intervention risk above 159; Hormuz headlines drive oil, yields and the Hang Seng.
Section 6 · Market Drivers

What Is Moving the Market

Dollar and yields

The dollar index is near 101.7 and the 10-year yield near 5.27%. Weak payrolls cut October hike odds, but a December hike is still expected and French bond stress adds dollar demand.

Yen and BoJ

Tokyo says deflation is over and warns on volatility; markets see a BoJ hike possible in December and likely by March, narrowing the policy gap.

Oil and the Gulf

Brent near $100 is easing as Gulf exports recover and G7 stocks are released, though Houthi attack claims and Iran’s Hormuz stance remain risks.

Asia risk appetite

The Nikkei’s AI-led surge contrasts with Hong Kong weakness; Korea and mainland China are closed, so liquidity is thin outside Japan and Australia.

Section 7 · Calendar

Economic Calendar / Events

TimeCountryEventResult / Watch
Fri 12:30 GMTUSNon-farm payrolls (Sep)+29K vs ~84-95K; unemployment 4.2%
TodayJPServices PMI (Sep)51.3; hiring up, output prices sharp
TodayAUServices PMI (Sep)51.9; job cuts return
Today 14:00 GMTUSISM Services PMI (Sep)After flash PMI composite of 58.4
Today 20:00 GMTUSUSDA Crop ProgressCorn harvest pace
Until Wed 7 OctCNMainland markets closedPublic holiday
Wed 7 Oct 18:00 GMTUSFOMC minutes (Sep)Tests the ‘one more hike’ guidance
Thu 8 OctHKStock Connect resumesSouthbound flows return
Fri 9 OctCN/CA/USChina CPI, Canada jobs, UMichGrowth and inflation read
Section 8 · Conclusion

Summary

Asia is risk-positive but headline-driven: soft US jobs cut Fed hike bets, the Nikkei hit a three-month high, and the dollar still firms on euro stress and 5%+ yields. USD/JPY sits near 158.06 under intervention talk, AUD/USD near 0.6938, copper near $6.59, corn near 497, the Hang Seng near 23,920, DOGE near $0.0953 and LTC near $69.79. Fed minutes on Wednesday are the next major test.

Section 9 · FAQ

FAQ

Q:Why is USD/JPY not falling after weak US jobs?

A:High US Treasury yields and haven demand outweigh Tokyo’s rhetoric, so the pair holds near 158 until yields or oil ease.

Q:What are the key levels today?

A:USD/JPY 157.50/158.50, AUD/USD 0.6900/0.6955, copper $6.53/$6.63, corn 495/502, Hang Seng 23,865/24,100, DOGE $0.0925/$0.1000, LTC $69/$72.50. These are conditional references, not forecasts.

Capital Street FX · Asian Session Live Report · Monday, 5 October 2026

For informational and educational purposes only; not investment advice. Trading CFDs, futures, FX and crypto-assets involves significant risk of loss. Levels are conditional technical references, not forecasts.

Compiled from Investing.com, investingLive, FXStreet, Bloomberg, Reuters (via Investing.com), CNBC, CNN, Trading Economics, Coinbase and Benzinga. Reuters.com and Bloomberg could not be read in full; Investing.com pages were cached snapshots (copper 6.5908 real-time derived, corn 497.25 Friday close), so prices may differ slightly from your live feed; Nikkei 69,701.98, USD/JPY 158.06, Hang Seng 23,920.14, Litecoin 69.79, AUD/USD 0.6938, Gold 4,131.97 and BTC/USD 85,458 were corrected to live Investing.com values. AUD/USD, USD/JPY, Hang Seng and crypto levels are cross-checked from several sources; support/resistance levels are derived from cited analysis and recent ranges.

USD/JPYAUD/USDCopperCornHang SengDogecoinLitecoin