Nikkei Hits 3-Month High as Weak US Jobs Data Eases Fed Bets.
Asian Session Report: Nikkei Hits 3-Month High as Weak US Jobs Ease Fed Hike Bets, While Dollar Firms
Asian shares rose on Monday after US payrolls of just 29,000 cut October Fed hike odds to roughly 20-25%. The Nikkei is up about 2.0% near 69,702, the dollar firmed with EUR/USD at a 16-month low, and USD/JPY holds near 158.06 despite sterner talk from Tokyo.
Copper is near $6.59, December corn 497.25, the Hang Seng 23,920, AUD/USD 0.6938, Dogecoin $0.0953 and Litecoin $69.79. Focus: Fed minutes on Wednesday, US ISM services today, Gulf headlines and Japanese intervention risk.
Prices as of 10:30 IST (05:00 GMT); Nikkei, USD/JPY, Hang Seng, AUD/USD, Litecoin, Gold and BTC/USD per live Investing.comTop Stories Moving the Market
Nikkei hits three-month high on AI rally
Tech-led gains lifted the Nikkei about 2% to 69,702 as soft US jobs cut Fed hike bets; MSCI Asia-Pacific is up 0.5-1.1%. Korea and mainland China are closed.
Tokyo toughens tone, yen barely moves
Officials say Japan is out of deflation and ready to act with the US on volatility, but high yields keep USD/JPY near 158.
Hang Seng extends losses after worst day since March
Stock Connect is suspended until 8 October and mainland China is shut, leaving Hong Kong thinly supported.
Payrolls miss big, wages weakest since 2021
September payrolls rose 29,000 vs about 84-95K expected, August was revised to 133K and hourly earnings grew 3% y/y. October hike odds sit near 20-25%; the 10-year yield is near 5.27%.
Oil slips as Gulf exports recover
A 100-million-barrel G7 stock release, rising Gulf exports and a $5 Aramco discount to Asia offset Houthi attack claims. Iran reportedly rejects new US proposals and keeps Hormuz shut.
Gold extends slide toward $4,130 after 3.4% weekly drop
Deutsche Bank calls gold oversold, but high real yields and a firm dollar cap rebounds. Support broke below $4,230 last week.
Bitcoin squeezes shorts above $85K
BTC reached near $86.8K on Sunday after payrolls; resistance sits at $87,000-87,500 and ETF inflows have faded.
Euro hits lowest since May 2025
French bond stress and reports of an early Spanish election weigh; MUFG recommends shorting EUR/JPY toward 172.
Technical Summary & Trade Ideas
USD/JPY
FX · Tokyo talks up the yen, high US yields cap it
USD/JPY holds near 158 even as Economy Minister Kiuchi says Japan is out of deflation and Finance Minister Katayama says Tokyo and Washington stand ready to act on excessive volatility. High US yields and haven demand outweigh the rhetoric. Reuters analysis suggests the pair may have topped below 160; the September 8 low at 152.89 is the level that would signal a regime change. Japan’s services PMI of 51.3 with sharp output-price gains keeps BoJ hike talk alive. All levels are conditional.
| Last158.06 |
| Support157.50 / 156.50 |
| Resistance158.50 / 159.50 |
| Key floor152.89 (8 Sep) |
AUD/USD
FX · Soft jobs help, but 11-week lows and firm USD weigh
The Aussie slipped back toward 0.6938 in late Asia as the dollar firmed on French fiscal stress. Australia’s services PMI eased to 51.9 with job cuts and rising price pressure, while the RBA cash rate sits at 4.60% and November hike odds are only about 20-25%. FXStreet notes the pair stays below its 20-day EMA near 0.704 with RSI near 28, so oversold conditions may slow downside. The Fed minutes on Wednesday are the next trigger.
| Last0.6938 |
| Support0.6900 / 0.6850 |
| Resistance0.6955 / 0.7000 |
| RBA cash rate4.60% |
Copper (HG)
Metals · Holding $6.5-6.6 support as China is shut
Copper trades near $6.59 per pound on the Investing.com Dec contract, below September’s record near $6.85-6.93 after softer Chinese demand data. Mainland China is closed until Wednesday, so liquidity is thin. Investing.com’s daily technical read is Strong Sell while weekly and monthly stay Strong Buy. A softer dollar after weak payrolls helps, but yields near 5.27% cap rallies. Chinese conditions on the Anglo Teck deal and Freeport’s in-line Q3 output are background headlines.
| Last$6.59 |
| Support6.53 / 6.39 |
| Resistance6.63 / 6.78 |
| 52-wk range4.82 – 6.93 |
Corn (ZC Dec)
Agri · Near six-week lows as harvest pace and stocks weigh
December corn sits at 497.25 cents on Investing.com, near the six-week low of about 495 hit on Friday after a larger-than-expected USDA stocks estimate. StoneX trimmed its US yield estimate, but harvest is progressing and a hefty soybean crop adds to grain-wide pressure. Investing.com technicals are Strong Sell on daily readings. USDA Crop Progress (Monday, 16:00 ET) and the 9 October WASDE-driven yield debate are the next catalysts.
| Last497.25 c/bu |
| Support495 / 487 |
| Resistance502 / 510 |
| 52-wk range406.25 – 549.75 |
Hang Seng (HSI)
Indices · Weak after worst day since March; Stock Connect shut
The Hang Seng is down about 0.2% near 23,920 after Friday’s 2.6% plunge, its biggest drop since March, as US yields and oil weigh and southbound Stock Connect flows remain suspended until 8 October. Mainland markets are closed through Wednesday, so Hong Kong is the only live gauge of China sentiment. The index is down about 5.9% over the past month. A reclaim of 24,100 would ease pressure; 24,613 is the pre-holiday close.
| Last23,920 |
| Support23,865 / 23,500 |
| Resistance24,100 / 24,613 |
| Connect resumes8 Oct |
Dogecoin (DOGE/USD)
Crypto · Bounces with Bitcoin on softer Fed betsDOGE trades near $0.095 as Bitcoin pushes toward $86K on softer US jobs data. Benzinga notes ETF inflows and futures open interest have faded, with September’s $0.1056 high acting as resistance and the September low near $0.078. A hold above $0.0925 keeps the bounce intact; failure targets $0.0880. Oil above $100 and Wednesday’s Fed minutes are the main risks.
| Last$0.0953 |
| Support0.0925 / 0.0880 |
| Resistance0.1000 / 0.1056 |
| Sept high$0.1056 |
Litecoin (LTC/USD)
Crypto · Firm bid, still capped near $72-73
LTC trades near $69.79 (+1.1% on the day), roughly flat on the week but about 41% above a month ago. It follows Bitcoin’s bounce, which helped from short squeezes above $85,000. Immediate support is $69.00 and then $66.30; resistance sits at $72.50 and the $75 round number. Fading ETF momentum and elevated yields keep upside conditional.
| Last$69.79 |
| Support69.00 / 66.30 |
| Resistance72.50 / 75.00 |
| 1-month change+41% |
What to Expect from the Next Session
- US ISM services and Crop Progress. A strong ISM after a 58.4 flash composite could revive hike bets and lift USD/JPY toward 158.50; a miss pushes it back to 157.50 and supports copper and crypto.
- Fed minutes on Wednesday. Officials’ guidance is for one more hike; a hawkish tone would pressure AUD/USD below 0.6900 and Dogecoin below $0.0925, while a dovish read favours risk assets.
- Japan and the Gulf. Rhetoric from Katayama and BoJ’s Uchida raises yen-intervention risk above 159; Hormuz headlines drive oil, yields and the Hang Seng.
What Is Moving the Market
Dollar and yields
The dollar index is near 101.7 and the 10-year yield near 5.27%. Weak payrolls cut October hike odds, but a December hike is still expected and French bond stress adds dollar demand.
Yen and BoJ
Tokyo says deflation is over and warns on volatility; markets see a BoJ hike possible in December and likely by March, narrowing the policy gap.
Oil and the Gulf
Brent near $100 is easing as Gulf exports recover and G7 stocks are released, though Houthi attack claims and Iran’s Hormuz stance remain risks.
Asia risk appetite
The Nikkei’s AI-led surge contrasts with Hong Kong weakness; Korea and mainland China are closed, so liquidity is thin outside Japan and Australia.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time | Country | Event | Result / Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 12:30 GMT | US | Non-farm payrolls (Sep) | +29K vs ~84-95K; unemployment 4.2% |
| Today | JP | Services PMI (Sep) | 51.3; hiring up, output prices sharp |
| Today | AU | Services PMI (Sep) | 51.9; job cuts return |
| Today 14:00 GMT | US | ISM Services PMI (Sep) | After flash PMI composite of 58.4 |
| Today 20:00 GMT | US | USDA Crop Progress | Corn harvest pace |
| Until Wed 7 Oct | CN | Mainland markets closed | Public holiday |
| Wed 7 Oct 18:00 GMT | US | FOMC minutes (Sep) | Tests the ‘one more hike’ guidance |
| Thu 8 Oct | HK | Stock Connect resumes | Southbound flows return |
| Fri 9 Oct | CN/CA/US | China CPI, Canada jobs, UMich | Growth and inflation read |
Summary
Asia is risk-positive but headline-driven: soft US jobs cut Fed hike bets, the Nikkei hit a three-month high, and the dollar still firms on euro stress and 5%+ yields. USD/JPY sits near 158.06 under intervention talk, AUD/USD near 0.6938, copper near $6.59, corn near 497, the Hang Seng near 23,920, DOGE near $0.0953 and LTC near $69.79. Fed minutes on Wednesday are the next major test.
FAQ
Q:Why is USD/JPY not falling after weak US jobs?
A:High US Treasury yields and haven demand outweigh Tokyo’s rhetoric, so the pair holds near 158 until yields or oil ease.
Q:What are the key levels today?
A:USD/JPY 157.50/158.50, AUD/USD 0.6900/0.6955, copper $6.53/$6.63, corn 495/502, Hang Seng 23,865/24,100, DOGE $0.0925/$0.1000, LTC $69/$72.50. These are conditional references, not forecasts.
