Nvidia’s Blowout Earnings Ignite a Nasdaq 100 Rally as Wall Street Braces for Warsh’s Jackson Hole Keynote | Technical Analysis – US Session | 27 August 2026
Nvidia’s Blowout Earnings Ignite a Nasdaq 100 Rally as Wall Street Braces for Warsh’s Jackson Hole Keynote
US Session Snapshot · USD/CHF, USD/CAD, Gold, Brent Crude, Nasdaq 100, US 20Y Yield, Bitcoin & Dogecoin
“Nvidia’s beat has given risk assets a genuine tailwind heading into the US open, but with Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut just 24 hours away, this is a session for sizing positions cautiously rather than chasing the rally.”
US equity futures point to a tech-led open, with Nasdaq 100 futures up roughly 1% and S&P 500 futures higher by around 0.4%, while Dow futures lag as investors rotate further into the AI trade following Nvidia’s results. Wednesday’s hotter PCE print complicated the Fed’s calculus into Jackson Hole, lifting the Dollar broadly and keeping the 20-Year Treasury yield pinned near five-month highs, even as this morning’s jobless claims data came in better than expected.
In commodities, gold is consolidating just above $4,600 an ounce, having pulled back around 1.4% on Wednesday’s inflation data but retaining the bulk of an August rally built on dollar-debasement and Treasury-market intervention concerns. Brent crude is easing toward $87 a barrel as easing Strait of Hormuz tensions between Iran and Oman reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil. Bitcoin is extending its rally in tandem with gold as the broader “debasement trade” widens out, while Dogecoin is consolidating after a powerful weekly advance. In FX, the Dollar is firmer against the Franc on today’s hawkish inflation backdrop, while the Loonie remains under pressure from an escalating US-Canada tariff dispute.
US Session Breaking News — Thursday, 27 August 2026
The stories moving markets into the US open
Nvidia’s Blowout Earnings Ignite a Nasdaq 100 Chip Rally
Nvidia’s fiscal second-quarter revenue more than doubled from a year earlier, beating forecasts by the widest margin in two years, while guidance pointing to roughly 70% growth into fiscal 2028 sent the stock surging over 6% in premarket trading. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped about 1%, lifting chip suppliers broadly and reviving confidence that the AI infrastructure buildout still has room to run.
EquitiesHot US PCE Keeps the Fed’s Path Uncertain Into Jackson Hole
Wednesday’s PCE inflation data showed the headline rate unchanged at 3.7% year-on-year through July, with core inflation steady at 3.3%, both running well above the Fed’s 2% target. The reading triggered a bout of profit-taking across gold and risk assets and kept the Dollar and Treasury yields elevated into Thursday’s open, complicating the debate over whether the Fed should hike, cut, or hold in September.
MacroGold Holds Near Three-Month Highs Ahead of Warsh’s Friday Keynote
Spot gold is trading near $4,600 an ounce, retaining most of an August rally of roughly 14% that has been driven by dollar-debasement concerns, US fiscal-deficit anxiety and continued central-bank buying. Markets are now focused squarely on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote as chair on Friday for clues on the rate path, after September hike odds eased to roughly 35-37% following the PCE data.
CommoditiesBrent Eases as Iran and Oman Reach a Hormuz Breakthrough
Brent crude has slipped back toward $87 a barrel after Iran and Oman reached a preliminary agreement over each country’s share of the Strait of Hormuz’s waters, with talks continuing toward a permanent maritime corridor covering traffic management and security. The de-escalation is easing the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed Brent above $89 earlier this week.
CommoditiesBitcoin Extends Its “Debasement Trade” Rally Alongside Gold
Bitcoin is trading near $79,000, up around 1% on the session, as falling long-end confidence in the Dollar and continued Treasury-market intervention concerns revive the correlated rally between gold and the largest cryptocurrency. Dogecoin is consolidating near $0.086 after a powerful weekly advance of close to 16%, cooling modestly alongside the broader crypto complex.
CryptoLoonie Slips as US-Canada Tariff Standoff Deepens
USD/CAD has climbed back toward 1.3865 after Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15-50% on roughly $20 billion of annual US import flows, in response to Washington’s tariff increases on Canadian goods. The Canadian Dollar has pulled back from a three-month high struck earlier this week as the trade dispute weighs on the growth outlook.
ForexLive · Updated through the US morning session, Thursday 27 August 2026
US Economic Calendar This Week — 27 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the rest of the week
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 💣8:30am ET (Released) | Initial Jobless Claims | 203,000 vs 207,000 prior — a decrease of 4,000 | 🟢 MEDIUM | Better-than-expected print points to continued labor-market resilience heading into Jackson Hole |
| 🇺🇸Premarket (Released) | Nvidia, Salesforce & CrowdStrike Earnings Beats | Nasdaq 100 futures +1%; Nvidia +6% premarket | 🔴 CRITICAL | Dominant driver of the tech-led equity open this morning |
| 🇺🇸Wednesday, 26 August (Released) | US PCE Inflation Data | Headline 3.7% y/y, core 3.3% — both unchanged and above target | 🔴 CRITICAL | Keeps the Fed’s own rate path genuinely uncertain heading into Jackson Hole |
| 🇺🇸Thu-Sat, 27-29 August | Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium | Central bankers from more than 70 countries gather in Wyoming | 🔴 CRITICAL | Sets the tone for global monetary policy into the September FOMC meeting |
| 🇺🇸Friday, 28 August | Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s First Jackson Hole Keynote | 10:00am ET at Jackson Lake Lodge, Wyoming | 🔴 CRITICAL | The single biggest swing factor for the Dollar, gold, yields and risk appetite this week |
| 🇮🇷This Week | Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz Talks | Preliminary agreement reached; permanent corridor talks continuing | 🔴 CRITICAL | Easing geopolitical risk premium is the key driver behind Brent’s pullback |
| 🇩🇦This Week | US-Canada Tariff Standoff | Canada imposes 15-50% retaliatory tariffs on ~$20bn of US imports | 🟢 MEDIUM | Continues to weigh on the Canadian Dollar and the growth outlook for Canada |
US Session Trade Ideas — Nasdaq 100 Forecast Today and More
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
USD/CHF
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CHF is firmer on the session near 0.8045 as Wednesday’s hotter PCE print lifted the Dollar broadly, but the pair remains well inside its recent range as the Swiss Franc continues to attract safe-haven flows tied to the same dollar-debasement and US fiscal-deficit concerns that are driving gold and Bitcoin higher. Today’s better-than-expected jobless claims print offers modest incremental Dollar support, but Friday’s Warsh keynote is the dominant catalyst for the pair into next week.
Technical Outlook
The pair is testing resistance in the 0.8060-0.8065 zone, an area that has capped rallies over the past week. A clean break and hold above 0.8065 would open a retest of 0.8130, while a reversal back below 0.8010 would point to a deeper slide toward 0.7950-0.7960, in line with the broader debasement-trade narrative that has kept the Franc bid throughout 2026.
USD/CAD
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CAD has climbed back toward 1.3865 after Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15-50% on roughly $20 billion of annual US import flows, in response to a collapse in trade talks and Washington’s threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel from January 2027. The pair has pulled well off the three-month low of 1.3760 struck earlier this week, with today’s firmer Dollar on hot PCE data adding a secondary tailwind.
Technical Outlook
The pair has reclaimed its short-term uptrend after finding support in the 1.3760-1.3800 zone. A hold above 1.3800 on dips keeps the path open toward 1.3980-1.4000, while a break back below 1.3760 would suggest the tariff-driven repricing is losing momentum; genuine two-way risk remains given how quickly the trade dispute could either escalate further or see a diplomatic breakthrough.
Gold
Fundamental Backdrop
Gold is holding just above $4,600 an ounce, recovering part of Wednesday’s 1.4% inflation-driven drop, its biggest one-day decline in a week. The metal remains up roughly 14% for August, supported by persistent dollar-debasement concerns tied to roughly $39.9 trillion in US public debt and rising net interest costs, alongside strong ETF inflows and continued central-bank buying. September rate-hike odds have eased to around 35-37% following the PCE data, a modest tailwind.
Technical Outlook
Gold holds above its 100-day moving average, with resistance at the week’s high near $4,700 and the broader target at the April peak near $4,890; a decisive break above that level would open the way toward $5,400. A slide back below $4,550 would point to a deeper pullback toward $4,480. Friday’s Warsh keynote is the decisive variable — a lack of hawkish pushback could quickly reopen the path to fresh three-month highs.
Brent Crude Oil
Fundamental Backdrop
Brent crude has eased back toward $86.90 a barrel, down around 1% on the session, after Iran and Oman reached a preliminary agreement over each country’s share of the Strait of Hormuz’s waters and related revenues, with technical talks continuing toward a permanent maritime corridor. President Trump’s confirmation that roughly 10 million barrels passed through the waterway this week has further eased supply-disruption fears that had pushed Brent above $89 earlier in the week.
Technical Outlook
Brent has pulled back from this week’s high near $89.68 and is now testing the $85.40-$87.00 support shelf. A break below $85.40 would open a deeper retracement toward $83.50, while a reversal back above $88.50 would suggest the Hormuz de-escalation trade is losing steam; a resumption of Iran-related tensions remains a genuine source of two-way risk.
Nasdaq 100
Fundamental Backdrop
Nasdaq 100 futures are up roughly 1% after Nvidia’s fiscal second-quarter revenue more than doubled and beat forecasts by the widest margin in two years, with guidance implying continued strong AI infrastructure spending into fiscal 2028. Salesforce and CrowdStrike also posted earnings beats, reinforcing the tech-led tone. The rally is helping offset lingering concerns over hotter PCE inflation and elevated long-end Treasury yields into the Jackson Hole symposium.
Technical Outlook
The index is pressing back toward the upper half of its 52-week range (22,841-30,762), having opened today near 29,130 and traded as high as 29,265 in early dealing. A sustained push above 29,500 would put the record high near 30,762 back in play, while a reversal below 29,000 would point to a pullback toward 28,300-28,500; earnings-driven rallies of this magnitude can also reverse sharply if Friday’s Warsh keynote strikes a hawkish tone.
US 20Y Treasury Yield
Fundamental Backdrop
The 20-Year Treasury yield is holding near 5.17%, down slightly from last week’s five-month high of 5.25% but still elevated by historical standards, as Wednesday’s hotter PCE print reinforced concerns that inflation is not cooling fast enough to justify near-term Fed easing. Heavy long-end Treasury issuance and ongoing fiscal-deficit concerns — the same dynamics driving gold and Bitcoin higher — continue to keep a floor under long-dated yields.
Technical Outlook
Yields have ranged between roughly 5.16% and 5.25% over the past two weeks, a notably high band relative to the year’s earlier levels near 4.7-4.9%. A push back above 5.25% would open the way toward the 5.30-5.40% area last seen in prior stress episodes, while a break below 4.95% would signal that Friday’s Warsh keynote has been read as dovish; this is a genuinely two-sided setup given how much the speech itself could move the long end.
BTC/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Bitcoin is trading near $79,250, up roughly 1% on the day, as falling confidence in long-term Dollar stability and continued Treasury-market intervention concerns revive the correlated rally with gold that first emerged earlier this year. The same dollar-debasement narrative supporting bullion is providing a tailwind for BTC, even as the broader crypto market remains sensitive to swings in risk appetite tied to Fed policy expectations.
Technical Outlook
Bitcoin remains well below its cycle highs but has stabilized in a higher range after recovering from a sharp drawdown earlier this year. A hold above the $76,500 support zone keeps the path open toward $82,000 and then the $85,000 resistance area, while a break below $73,500 would point to a retest of lower support; Friday’s Warsh keynote and its implications for the Dollar are the key swing factor for the debasement trade into the weekend.
Dogecoin
Fundamental Backdrop
Dogecoin is trading near $0.0863, down modestly on the session but still up roughly 16% for the week, as the memecoin cools alongside a broader pause in crypto risk appetite following Wednesday’s hot inflation print. As a high-beta asset with no supply cap, DOGE tends to amplify moves in the wider crypto market in both directions, making it especially sensitive to shifts in sentiment around Friday’s Warsh keynote.
Technical Outlook
DOGE has pulled back from this week’s local high near $0.100 but remains comfortably above its recent range lows near $0.068-0.070. A hold above the $0.078 support zone keeps the path open toward a retest of $0.100 and potentially the year’s highs, while a break below $0.070 would point to a deeper reversal of the week’s rally; given its volatility, position sizing should stay conservative relative to the other instruments in this report.
US Session FAQ — Thursday, 27 August 2026
Common questions traders are asking this session
Why did Nvidia’s earnings move the Nasdaq 100 so sharply?
What is the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium and why does it matter this week?
Why is gold holding up despite hot inflation data pushing yields higher?
Why is Brent crude falling this week?
Why are Bitcoin and gold moving together again?
What should traders watch for the rest of the week?
US Session Summary — Thursday, 27 August 2026 (Live Update)
Thursday’s US session is opening on a tech-led note, with Nasdaq 100 futures up roughly 1% after Nvidia’s blowout fiscal second-quarter results eased concerns over the durability of the AI infrastructure spending boom, even as a hotter-than-expected PCE inflation print overnight kept the picture two-sided for the Fed heading into Jackson Hole. Gold is holding just above $4,600 an ounce, having steadied after Wednesday’s inflation-driven pullback, while Brent crude has eased toward $86.90 a barrel on an emerging Iran-Oman agreement over the Strait of Hormuz. The 20-Year Treasury yield remains pinned near 5.17%, close to a five-month high, as heavy issuance and fiscal-deficit concerns keep the long end elevated ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday. In FX, USD/CHF is firmer near 0.8045 on the hot inflation data, though the broader Franc uptrend tied to the dollar-debasement narrative remains intact, while USD/CAD has climbed to 1.3865 as an escalating US-Canada tariff dispute weighs on the Loonie. Crypto markets are mixed, with Bitcoin extending its rally alongside gold near $79,250 while Dogecoin cools modestly after a powerful weekly advance. Highest-conviction session idea: lean into the Nvidia-driven equity rally and the broader gold-Bitcoin debasement trade, but size cautiously into Friday’s Warsh keynote — a genuine source of two-way risk that could overwhelm today’s constructive tone given how uncertain the Fed’s own rate path remains.
For the individual instruments: USD/CHF sell rallies toward 0.8065, stop 0.8120, target 0.7950 — today’s hot-inflation Dollar bid is a genuine headwind for this trade, though the broader debasement-trade demand for the Franc is a real source of two-way risk. USD/CAD buy dips toward 1.3800, stop 1.3700, target 1.4000 — the escalating tariff standoff is a genuine tailwind, though any diplomatic breakthrough with Washington is a real source of two-way risk. Gold buy dips toward $4,550, stop $4,480, target $4,890 — the underlying dollar-debasement trade remains a genuine tailwind, though a hawkish Warsh keynote is a real source of two-way risk. Brent sell rallies toward $88.50, stop $90.00, target $83.50 — the Hormuz de-escalation is a genuine tailwind for this trade, though a resumption of Iran-related tensions is a real source of two-way risk. Nasdaq 100 buy dips toward 29,000, stop 28,500, target 30,500 — the Nvidia-driven chip rally is a genuine tailwind, though a hawkish Fed surprise is a real source of two-way risk. US 20Y yield fade rallies in price toward 5.10%, stop 4.95%, target a retest of 5.25% — sticky inflation and heavy issuance are genuine tailwinds for higher yields, though a dovish Warsh keynote is a real source of two-way risk. BTC/USD buy dips toward $76,500, stop $73,500, target $85,000 — the strengthening gold correlation is a genuine tailwind, though the token’s history of sharp drawdowns is a real source of two-way risk. Dogecoin buy dips toward $0.078, stop $0.070, target $0.100 — this week’s powerful rally reflects a genuine tailwind, though broader crypto risk-off spillover is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variable for the remainder of the week is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, 28 August, alongside the evolving Iran-Oman Hormuz talks and the US-Canada tariff dispute. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply as the week progresses.
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