Oil Surges Past $74 as Iran Shuts the Strait of Hormuz Again; Wall Street Splits Ahead of Bank Earnings, Gold and Crypto Slide | US Session – Technical Analysis | 13 July 2026
Oil Surges Past $74 as Iran Shuts the Strait of Hormuz Again; Wall Street Splits Ahead of a Bank-Earnings-Heavy Week, Gold Slips Toward $4,074, Bitcoin and Dogecoin Slump on Crypto Risk-Off
Oil surges past $74 after Iran again declares the Strait of Hormuz closed, splitting Wall Street as the Dow holds roughly flat while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slip on renewed AI and semiconductor selling, while Gold slips toward $4,074 and Bitcoin and Dogecoin tumble as crypto turns risk-off ahead of Tuesday’s CPI report.
Monday’s US session has opened under fresh geopolitical strain. The US carried out its fourth strike on Iran in the past week over the weekend, in retaliation for an Iranian attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship, prompting Tehran to again declare the Strait of Hormuz “closed until further notice” — a claim US Central Command disputes even as independent ship-tracking data shows real ambiguity over actual flows through the waterway, which typically carries roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Crude has responded sharply: WTI has jumped as much as 4.3% to around $74.49 a barrel and Brent holds firm near $79, extending a roughly 9% surge over the past week that has revived the inflation debate just a day before Tuesday’s June CPI report and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first appearance before Congress. Mohamed El-Erian has warned that a further intensification of the conflict could push crude toward the mid-$80s, a scenario markets are increasingly having to price alongside an otherwise busy corporate earnings calendar.
Wall Street has split along familiar lines this morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is little-changed, hovering just above the flat line near 52,676.09, holding up far better than the S&P 500, off roughly 0.3-0.34%, and the Nasdaq Composite, down about 0.8%, as renewed selling pressure in AI and semiconductor names weighs on the tech-heavy index even as SK Hynix’s American Depositary Receipts extend Friday’s blockbuster, more-than-14% Nasdaq debut following its record $26.5 billion foreign-company US listing. Investors are also positioning for a bank-earnings-heavy week: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all report starting Tuesday, alongside Johnson & Johnson, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth Group, Intuitive Surgical and Netflix, with S&P 500 companies overall expected to post a roughly 24% year-on-year jump in second-quarter profits — a key test of whether earnings strength can support the artificial-intelligence-driven rally even as oil-linked inflation risk builds. Treasury yields are firmer in tandem, with the 10-year around 4.57-4.59% and the 2-year near 4.22%, as Fed funds futures nudge up the odds of a rate hike later this year; the CME FedWatch tool still assigns roughly a 68.5% probability to the Fed holding rates steady at its July meeting, though that has eased modestly from last week. The Dollar Index is little-changed near 100.9, with USD/CAD flat around 1.4142 even as the Canadian Dollar outperforms other major peers, given Canada’s position as a net energy exporter benefiting directly from the oil spike; markets are also awaiting the Bank of Canada’s coming policy announcement. USD/CHF holds a range-bound bias near 0.8087, with technicians flagging that a break above 0.8139 resistance would extend the pair’s broader rally from its 0.7760 low toward 0.8198 next.
In commodities, Gold has counter-intuitively trimmed its slide to about 0.8% and now trades near $4,073.56 an ounce as firmer yields and Dollar strength outweigh the usual safe-haven bid for the metal, a pattern that has recurred repeatedly through this Gulf conflict; OCBC Bank continues to expect gold to soften through year-end on rising yields even as analysts maintain a constructive long-term view. Wheat has firmed modestly to around $6.39 a bushel, rallying back toward last week’s three-week high as strong Chinese wheat production data — a harvest of 138.95 million metric tons, up from 138.16 million a year earlier — reinforces expectations of ample global supply, even as geopolitical risk and tighter US stocks keep a floor under the market ahead of Friday’s pivotal USDA WASDE report. In digital assets, Bitcoin has slipped roughly 1% to around $63,111.17 after opening near $63,745 and falling through the morning as crypto sentiment turns risk-off alongside the broader Gulf-driven selloff, while Dogecoin has broken a near two-year support trendline to trade near $0.0710, down about 7.5% over the past week and roughly 75% since September, with some technical models now targeting a further 20-35% decline from current levels. Looking ahead through the remainder of the US session, the decisive variables are any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines, scheduled remarks from Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller, and positioning ahead of Tuesday’s CPI print and Chair Warsh’s testimony.
US Session Headlines
The stories driving price action across equities, commodities, currencies and crypto this session
US Session Economic Calendar — 13 July 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action across today’s US session (times ET unless noted)
| Time | Event | Actual / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇷Weekend | US Carries Out Fourth Strike on Iran in a Week | Retaliation for an Iranian attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship; Iran again declares the Strait of Hormuz “closed until further notice” | 🔴 CRITICAL | Drives the session’s oil spike and broad risk-off tone across equities and crypto |
| 🇺🇸5:25 AM | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman Speaks | Remarks at a Bank Policy Institute roundtable | 🟢 MEDIUM | Watched for early signals ahead of Tuesday’s CPI and Warsh testimony |
| 🇺🇸Pre-Market | WTI & Brent Crude Oil | WTI up as much as 4.3% to ~$74.49/bbl; Brent holds firm near $79/bbl | 🔴 CRITICAL | Reprices supply-disruption risk; feeds directly into this week’s inflation debate |
| 🇺🇸9:30 AM | US Cash Equities Open | Dow roughly flat near 52,676.09; S&P 500 -0.3% to -0.34%; Nasdaq -0.8% | 🔴 CRITICAL | Renewed AI/semiconductor selling drags the Nasdaq harder than the blue-chip Dow |
| 🇺🇸Today | US 10-Year Treasury Yield | Holds firm near 4.57-4.59%; 2-year near 4.22% | 🔴 CRITICAL | CME FedWatch still shows ~68.5% odds of a July hold, a probability easing on oil’s climb |
| 🇨🇦Today | USD/CAD & Loonie Cross-Rates | USD/CAD flat near 1.4142; CAD outperforms other major peers on oil strength | 🟢 MEDIUM | Canada’s net-energy-exporter status offsets broad Dollar firmness against the Loonie |
| 🇳🇭Today | Wheat (CBOT Front-Month) | Firms toward $6.39/bushel despite strong Chinese harvest data (138.95M metric tons) | 🟢 MEDIUM | Ample global supply expectations cap prices ahead of Friday’s WASDE report |
| 🇺🇸12:30 PM | Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speaks | Remarks at a New York Association for Business Economics event | 🟢 MEDIUM | Another read on the Fed’s tone heading into Tuesday’s testimony |
| 🇺🇸Tomorrow | US June CPI Report | Core CPI seen easing toward 2.8% year-on-year; headline risk skewed higher on oil’s climb | 🔴 CRITICAL | The week’s single biggest catalyst for Fed-hike pricing, the Dollar and Treasury yields |
| 🇺🇸Tomorrow | Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Congressional Testimony | First appearance before Congress since taking office in May 2026 | 🔴 CRITICAL | Markets will parse Warsh’s tone for confirmation of the modestly hawkish repricing seen today |
| 🇺🇸This Week | US Bank Earnings Season Opens | JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo report from Tuesday | 🟢 MEDIUM | A key test of whether ~24% y/y profit growth can offset the oil-driven macro overhang |
US Session Trade Ideas — 13 July 2026
Eight structured setups — USD/CAD, USD/CHF, Gold, Wheat, Dow Jones, US 10-Year Yield, BTC/USD, Dogecoin — with updated prices, levels, and full fundamental and technical analysis
USD/CAD
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CAD trades flat near 1.4142 as two safe-haven forces offset one another: the US Dollar is drawing broad demand from the weekend’s fresh Gulf strikes and Iran’s renewed Hormuz closure claim, while the Canadian Dollar is simultaneously supported by the surge in oil prices given Canada’s position as a net energy exporter. The Loonie is outperforming every other major peer on the session, but that strength is being fully absorbed against a Dollar with its own tailwinds. Markets are turning attention to the Bank of Canada’s coming policy announcement and Tuesday’s US CPI print, both of which carry the potential to break the current stalemate in either direction.
Technical Outlook
USD/CAD is consolidating just above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average near 1.4139, with the Relative Strength Index around 62 having eased out of overbought territory — more a cooldown than a clear reversal signal. Resistance sits at 1.4200 (this session’s pivot) and 1.4248 (this trade’s target, the yearly high). Support lies at 1.4139 (the 20-day EMA, also a former resistance zone from November 2025) and 1.4095 (this trade’s stop area, the June 18 low). A confirmed close above 1.4200 would open a retest of the yearly high, while a break below 1.4095 would risk a deeper slide toward 1.4000.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines that shift the safe-haven Dollar bid; (2) continued oil-price direction, given its direct read-through to the Loonie; (3) the Bank of Canada’s coming policy announcement; (4) Tuesday’s US CPI report and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony; (5) broader Dollar Index direction as Fed-hike odds are repriced through the week.
USD/CHF
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CHF holds a range-bound bias near 0.8087 as safe-haven demand for both the Dollar and the Franc partly offset one another amid the weekend’s Gulf escalation. The Swiss Franc’s traditional haven status is being tempered by the Dollar’s own safe-haven bid and by a firmer US rate outlook, with Fed funds futures nudging up the odds of a later hike as oil’s renewed climb complicates the disinflation narrative. The pair continues to extend a broader rally that began from the 0.7760 low earlier this year.
Technical Outlook
USD/CHF is range-trading with an intraday bias that stays neutral-to-constructive so long as the 0.8009 support level holds. A break above 0.8139 resistance would extend the rally from 0.7760 toward a 100% projection target near 0.8198 (this trade’s take-profit level), based on the move from 0.7603 to 0.8041. Support lies at 0.8040 (this trade’s entry zone) and 0.8009 (this trade’s stop, the range floor). A confirmed close below 0.8009 would shift the near-term bias back toward consolidation, while a reclaim of 0.8139 would open the door to fresh highs for the move.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines shaping the relative haven bid between the Dollar and Franc; (2) Tuesday’s US CPI report and its read-through for Fed-hike pricing; (3) Fed Chair Warsh’s first congressional testimony; (4) Swiss National Bank commentary on Franc strength, given the currency’s export-sensitivity; (5) broader Dollar Index direction through the remainder of the week.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Fundamental Backdrop
Gold has trimmed its slide to about 0.8% and now trades near $4,073.56 an ounce, having opened Monday’s futures session near $4,106.60, as the fourth round of US-Iran strikes over the weekend fails to lift the metal despite its traditional safe-haven role. The firmer Treasury yield backdrop and a steady Dollar continue to outweigh haven demand, a dynamic that has recurred repeatedly through this four-month conflict. OCBC Bank expects gold to decline through year-end on rising yields, a stronger Dollar, and weaker investor demand, even as most analysts maintain a constructive long-term structural view given continued central-bank buying, including China’s largest monthly reserve increase in over two-and-a-half years reported for June.
Technical Outlook
Gold is consolidating within a $4,059.90-$4,157.41 range as of today’s session, with price action still capable of moving in either direction ahead of Tuesday’s CPI report. Resistance sits at $4,110 (this trade’s sell-rally level, a recent intraday pivot) and $4,157 (this trade’s stop, the top of the current consolidation range). Support lies at $4,060 (the range floor) and $3,950 (this trade’s target, the next round-number support below the range). A confirmed close below $4,000 would expose a deeper move toward $3,880, while a reclaim of $4,157 would shift the near-term bias back toward retesting $4,200.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Tuesday’s US CPI report and its implications for Fed-hike pricing; (2) Fed Chair Warsh’s first congressional testimony; (3) any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines that could reassert gold’s haven properties; (4) continued central-bank gold-buying data, particularly from China; (5) broader Dollar Index and Treasury-yield direction through the week.
Wheat (CBOT)
Fundamental Backdrop
Wheat has firmed modestly to around $6.39 a bushel, rallying back toward last week’s three-week high reached last Thursday, as strong production data out of China — the world’s top wheat grower, with a harvest of 138.95 million metric tons versus 138.16 million a year earlier despite a 0.3% decline in planted area — reinforces expectations of ample global supply. That narrative is offsetting continued geopolitical supply anxieties tied to the Gulf conflict and last week’s tighter-than-expected USDA June 1 stocks figure of 920 million bushels, alongside a reduced annual acreage forecast of 42.740 million acres. Strong export demand, including a private sale of 100,000 metric tons of US hard red spring wheat to Nigeria, continues to provide some underlying support.
Technical Outlook
Wheat remains up roughly 6.83% over the past month and today’s bounce to $6.39 extends that strength, trading 16.35% above year-ago levels. Price is now only about six cents below $6.45 (this trade’s sell-rally level, near last week’s high) and $6.60 (this trade’s stop, the next supply-driven ceiling) sits just beyond that. Support lies at $6.14 (a near-term pivot from last week’s range) and $6.05 (this trade’s target, just above the psychological $6.00 level). With price already testing the lower edge of the sell-rally zone, a confirmed push through $6.45-$6.60 would call the bearish setup into question and open a retest of the recent highs, while a reversal back below $6.14 ahead of Friday’s WASDE report would keep the path toward $6.05 intact.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Friday’s USDA WASDE report, the week’s pivotal catalyst for global ending-stocks estimates; (2) continued Chinese production and demand data; (3) any fresh Gulf-conflict developments that could reintroduce a geopolitical supply-risk premium; (4) US winter-wheat harvest pace and weekly export-sales data; (5) broader Black Sea supply and weather developments that could override the current supply-driven narrative.
Dow Jones (US30)
Fundamental Backdrop
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is little-changed, hovering just above the flat line near 52,676.09, meaningfully outperforming the S&P 500 (down roughly 0.3-0.34%) and the Nasdaq Composite (down about 0.8%) as renewed selling pressure hits AI and semiconductor names while the Dow’s more traditional, less tech-concentrated constituents hold up better. Investors are positioning for a bank-earnings-heavy week, with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all reporting starting Tuesday, a group that carries significant weight within the blue-chip index. S&P 500 companies overall are expected to post a roughly 24% year-on-year jump in second-quarter profits, a key test of whether earnings strength can offset the oil-driven inflation overhang.
Technical Outlook
The Dow set a fresh intraday record high of 52,742.66 earlier this month before cooling, and today’s dip keeps the index within its recent consolidation range just below those highs. Resistance sits at 52,742 (this month’s intraday record) and 53,000 (this trade’s target, the next psychological level). Support lies at 52,300 (this trade’s entry zone, a recent pivot) and 52,000 (this trade’s stop, the next round-number support). A confirmed close above 52,742 would expose fresh record territory, while a break below 52,000 would risk a deeper pullback toward 51,500, particularly if Gulf tensions escalate further or bank earnings disappoint.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Tuesday’s bank earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo; (2) Tuesday’s US CPI report and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony; (3) continued AI and semiconductor sector rotation, given its outsized impact on the Nasdaq relative to the Dow; (4) any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines; (5) oil-price direction and its read-through to input costs for industrial constituents.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield
Fundamental Backdrop
The 10-year Treasury yield holds firm near 4.57-4.59% as oil’s renewed surge past $74 revives the inflation debate just a day before Tuesday’s June CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first congressional testimony. Fed funds futures have nudged up the odds of a rate hike later this year, though the CME FedWatch tool still assigns roughly a 68.5% probability to the Fed holding rates steady at its upcoming July meeting. Scheduled remarks from Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller through the session are being closely parsed for any shift in tone ahead of Warsh’s testimony.
Technical Outlook
The 10-year yield has held a firm bias over the past several sessions as oil-driven inflation concerns build, with the move higher still contained within its recent range. Resistance sits at 4.65% (a recent multi-week high) and 4.75% (this trade’s target, the next psychological level tied to a more decisive hawkish repricing). Support lies at 4.52% (this trade’s entry zone, a recent pivot low) and 4.42% (this trade’s stop, the broader range floor). A confirmed move above 4.65% would expose a fresh push toward 4.80%, while a drop below 4.42% would risk a reversal back toward 4.30% if the Gulf conflict de-escalates or CPI surprises to the downside.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Tuesday’s US CPI report, the week’s single biggest catalyst for the rates complex; (2) Fed Chair Warsh’s first congressional testimony; (3) Monday’s remarks from Fed Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Waller; (4) continued oil-price direction and its pass-through to inflation expectations; (5) any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines that could shift the safe-haven bid for Treasuries.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Fundamental Backdrop
Bitcoin opened Monday near $63,745, roughly 0.2% below Sunday’s opening price, before slipping further through the morning to around $63,111.17 as the weekend’s fresh Gulf strikes and renewed Hormuz closure claim drive a broad risk-off move across digital assets. The move mirrors a pattern seen across earlier flare-ups of this conflict, where Bitcoin has generally posted only a shallow initial drop relative to its altcoin peers before stabilizing within days. Ethereum has shown a similar reversal, opening at its highest level in over a month before giving back gains through the session.
Technical Outlook
Bitcoin’s slide from Monday’s open has taken price down toward $63,111.17, extending a broader corrective phase that has weighed on the asset over recent sessions. Resistance sits at $65,000 (this trade’s sell-rally level, near last week’s range) and $67,000 (this trade’s stop, the next supply zone). Support lies at $62,000 (a near-term pivot) and $58,000 (this trade’s target, the next major round-number support). A confirmed close below $58,000 would expose a deeper move toward $54,000, while a reclaim of $67,000 would shift the near-term bias back toward the recent highs.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines that could deepen or reverse the broader crypto selloff; (2) Tuesday’s US CPI report and its read-through for risk appetite; (3) continued ETF and institutional fund-flow data for Bitcoin-linked products; (4) broader altcoin performance, including Dogecoin, as a read on whether today’s weakness is broad-based; (5) Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony and its implications for the broader rate and liquidity backdrop.
Dogecoin (DOGE/USD)
Fundamental Backdrop
Dogecoin has broken a near two-year support trendline to trade near $0.0710, down about 7.5% over the past week and roughly 75% since September, with its market capitalization thinning to around $12.4 billion. The break comes amid a broader crypto risk-off move tied to the weekend’s Gulf escalation, compounded by memecoins’ typically higher sensitivity to broad risk sentiment relative to Bitcoin. Some technical models are now mapping a further 20-35% decline from current levels, though the token’s fate remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s own directional cues given the historically tight correlation between the two during risk-off events.
Technical Outlook
Dogecoin’s daily chart is bearish, with the 50-day moving average sitting above price and sloping down, a potential resistance on any bounce, while the 200-day moving average has been falling since mid-June, underscoring longer-term weakness. Resistance sits at $0.0760 (this trade’s sell-rally level, near the recently broken trendline) and $0.0800 (this trade’s stop, the 50-day moving average zone). Price is already testing $0.0700 (a near-term psychological level, now barely a pip below current levels) with $0.0580 next (this trade’s target, consistent with technical models’ 20-35% downside projection). A confirmed close below $0.0700 would open the door to that deeper $0.0580 target, while a reclaim of $0.0800 would shift the near-term bias back toward range consolidation.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Bitcoin’s own directional cues, given the tight correlation between BTC and DOGE during risk-off events; (2) any further Gulf conflict developments that could deepen the broader crypto selloff; (3) regulatory developments, including the SEC and CFTC’s digital-commodity classification framework and the CLARITY Act’s progress in Congress; (4) broader memecoin and altcoin performance as a read on risk appetite; (5) social-media sentiment and retail positioning, historically a significant driver of Dogecoin-specific price action.
US Session FAQ
Common questions about today’s key market movers, answered
US Session Summary — Monday, 13 July 2026 (Updated Mid-Session, ~11:30 AM ET)
Monday’s US session is dominated by the fourth round of US strikes on Iran in the past week and Tehran’s renewed declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is closed “until further notice,” per live Reuters, Bloomberg, Investing.com and FXStreet coverage. WTI crude has jumped as much as 4.3% to around $74.49 a barrel and Brent holds firm near $79, extending last week’s roughly 9% surge and reviving the inflation debate just a day before Tuesday’s June CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first congressional testimony; Mohamed El-Erian has warned that further intensification could push crude toward the mid-$80s. Wall Street has split along familiar lines: the Dow Jones Industrial Average is little-changed, up modestly near 52,676.09, holding up far better than the S&P 500 (down roughly 0.3-0.34%) and the Nasdaq Composite (down about 0.8%), as renewed selling in AI and semiconductor names offsets continued enthusiasm for SK Hynix’s Nasdaq ADRs, which are extending Friday’s more-than-14% debut. Treasury yields are firmer, with the 10-year around 4.57-4.59%, as Fed funds futures nudge up the odds of a later hike, though the CME FedWatch tool still assigns roughly 68.5% odds to a July hold. The Dollar Index is little-changed near 100.9, with USD/CAD flat near 1.4142 even as the Canadian Dollar outperforms other major peers on oil strength, and USD/CHF holding a range-bound bias near 0.8087 with topside eyed above 0.8139. Gold has counter-intuitively trimmed its slide to about 0.8% and now trades near $4,073.56 an ounce as firmer yields offset safe-haven demand, Wheat has rebounded toward $6.39 a bushel even as strong Chinese harvest data continues to cap the rally ahead of Friday’s WASDE report, and in digital assets, Bitcoin has slipped roughly 1% to around $63,111.17 while Dogecoin has broken a near two-year support trendline to trade near $0.0710, down about 7.5% this week. Highest-conviction session idea: buy dips in the US 10-Year Treasury Yield toward 4.52%, targeting 4.75% — the combination of oil’s renewed surge, a still-live Gulf conflict, and Tuesday’s CPI print and Warsh testimony forms a genuine near-term case for continued upward yield pressure, though a credible de-escalation headline or a softer-than-feared CPI print remains a real catalyst that could sharply reverse this move.
For the individual instruments: USD/CAD buy dips toward 1.4130, stop 1.4090, target 1.4248 — broad safe-haven Dollar demand is a genuine tailwind, though the Loonie’s oil-driven outperformance against other peers is a real headwind capping the pair’s upside. USD/CHF buy dips toward 0.8040, stop 0.8009, target 0.8198 — the pair’s broader rally from 0.7760 and a firmer US rate outlook are genuine tailwinds, though the Franc’s own safe-haven bid is a real headwind to a sustained move higher. Gold sell rallies toward $4,110, stop $4,157, target $3,950 — firmer yields and Dollar strength are genuine tailwinds to further downside, though the metal’s longer-running structural support from central-bank buying is a real risk to this trade. Wheat sell rallies toward $6.45, stop $6.60, target $6.05 — strong Chinese supply data and ample global availability are genuine tailwinds, though Friday’s WASDE report and ongoing Gulf-linked supply risk are real headwinds to further downside. Dow Jones buy dips toward 52,300, stop 52,000, target 53,000 — a bank-earnings-heavy week and the index’s lighter AI/semiconductor exposure are genuine tailwinds, though oil-driven inflation risk and any further Gulf escalation are real headwinds to a sustained move higher. US 10-Year Yield buy dips toward 4.52%, stop 4.42%, target 4.75% — oil-driven inflation fears and Tuesday’s CPI print are genuine tailwinds, though a credible de-escalation headline is a real risk to this trade. Bitcoin sell rallies toward $65,000, stop $67,000, target $58,000 — broad Gulf-driven risk aversion is a genuine tailwind, though Bitcoin’s relative resilience versus altcoins is a real risk if broader crypto sentiment stabilises. Dogecoin sell rallies toward $0.0760, stop $0.0800, target $0.0580 — the token’s broken trendline and crypto-wide risk-off sentiment are genuine tailwinds, though a broader Bitcoin-led stabilisation is a real risk to further downside. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines, Monday’s remarks from Fed officials Bowman and Waller, and positioning ahead of Tuesday’s CPI release and Chair Warsh’s testimony. Size positions accordingly, and note that the geopolitical backdrop remains exceptionally fluid and carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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