Oil Tops $100 as Red Sea Attacks Widen the Mideast War, Yen Slides to a Fresh 40-Year Low, Hang Seng Holds Its Tech Rally | Asian Session – Technical Analysis | 24 July 2026
Oil Tops $100 as Red Sea Attacks Widen the Mideast War, Yen Slides to a Fresh 40-Year Low
USD/JPY · NZD/USD · Aluminium · Crude Oil · Hang Seng · Dogecoin · Cardano — live Asian morning coverage through the Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney sessions
“The Red Sea has become the second front of an oil war that started at Hormuz — and Asian markets are now trading two escalating conflicts at once, not one.”
Friday’s Asian trade is dominated by the rapid widening of the Middle East conflict, after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they struck two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, opening a new front alongside the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz and sending Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time in two months. President Trump has threatened “major military punishment” for further tanker attacks and told Axios he is considering a “massive attack” on Iran, while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned the situation is “getting out of control.” That backdrop is keeping the Dollar broadly bid into the Asian morning, with USD/JPY pressing to a fresh roughly 40-year high near 163.83 even as Japan’s Ministry of Finance repeats its intervention warnings, and NZD/USD sliding for a third straight session toward 0.5788 despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hawkish July hike.
Commodities are the session’s clearest expression of the escalation: Aluminium is rebounding hard from this month’s four-month low as the Red Sea and Hormuz disruptions threaten roughly 9% of global primary supply on top of an already-tightening LME inventory picture, while Crude Oil is consolidating most of its historic weekly surge. Equities are more mixed, with the Hang Seng attempting to defend Thursday’s tech-led rally even as regional risk appetite comes under pressure, while digital assets are broadly softer, led lower by Dogecoin’s more-than-5% slide, with Cardano’s Van Rossem hard fork offering some relative support against the same risk-off tide.
Asian Session News Flow
The stories moving USD/JPY, NZD/USD, Aluminium, Crude Oil, the Hang Seng and crypto this morning
Asian Session Economic Calendar — 24 July 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney morning (local times unless noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | Red Sea Tanker Attacks / Widening Mideast War | Houthis strike two Saudi tankers; Trump threatens “massive attack” on Iran | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary driver of Crude Oil and Aluminium trade ideas and the session’s broad risk tone |
| 🇯🇵Ongoing | Yen Weakness / MoF Intervention Warning | USD/JPY near 163.83, a fresh roughly 40-year low; Katayama repeats “decisive steps” warning | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary driver of the USD/JPY trade idea and a key source of two-way risk this session |
| 🇺🇸Today | US Treasury Semi-Annual FX Report | Report cites excessive yen volatility as undesirable; no manipulation designation | 🟢 MEDIUM | Reinforces intervention risk without adding a hard new trigger level for USD/JPY |
| 🇳🇵This Week | RBNZ Hawkish Hold / Rate Path Signal | Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a hawkish July hike and flagged further tightening | 🟢 MEDIUM | A genuine but currently overwhelmed tailwind for the NZD/USD trade idea |
| 🇦🇪Ongoing | Persian Gulf Supply Risk (~9% of Global Aluminium) | Strait of Hormuz largely stalled; Red Sea now also disrupted | 🟢 MEDIUM | Key driver of the Aluminium trade idea alongside already-low LME inventories |
| 🇭🇰Ongoing | Hang Seng Tech Rally vs. Regional Risk-Off | HSI closed Thursday +1.28% at 25,210.81 on Tencent, Meituan and travel-sector strength | 🟢 MEDIUM | Key swing factor for the Hang Seng trade idea into Friday’s session |
| 🇺🇸Next Week | FOMC Policy Meeting Preview (28–29 July) | Markets assessing Fed odds amid oil-driven inflation risk and a resilient labour market | 🟢 MEDIUM | Background driver for broad Dollar tone and a key swing factor for USD/JPY and NZD/USD |
Asian Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s seven key instruments
USD/JPY
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/JPY is trading near 163.83, its weakest level in roughly four decades, after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama repeated that authorities remain prepared to take “decisive steps,” explicitly citing a fresh US Treasury semi-annual FX report that described excessive yen volatility as undesirable. Tokyo spent roughly $73 billion defending the yen in April and May with only a limited, temporary effect, and Katayama has now deliberately stopped naming a trigger level, keeping traders guessing while the Fed’s 3.50–3.75% policy rate continues to sit dramatically above the BoJ’s, supporting persistent carry demand.
Technical Outlook
The pair remains in a well-established uptrend, having cleared this week’s earlier 163.20–163.24 highs to press into fresh multi-decade territory. A sustained hold above 163.20 keeps this trade’s 165.30 target in view, with 166.00 the next region flagged by several desks on further strength. On the downside, a close back below 162.40, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the current breakout into question, particularly if it coincides with any confirmed, rather than verbal, Ministry of Finance action.
NZD/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
NZD/USD is trading near 0.5788, its third consecutive losing session, after being rejected near 0.5875 earlier this week. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hawkish July hike and signal of further tightening remain a genuine tailwind for the Kiwi, but that support is currently being overwhelmed by a broadly firm, oil-driven Dollar bid as the widening Red Sea and Hormuz conflict lifts safe-haven demand for the greenback.
Technical Outlook
The pair has slipped below its 21-day moving average after failing at the 0.5860–0.5875 resistance cluster, with the RSI rolling over from overbought territory. A break below 0.5765 would expose this trade’s 0.5680 target and, on further weakness, the 0.5626 year-to-date low from late June. A close back above 0.5878, this trade’s stop-loss level, would suggest the RBNZ’s hawkish tilt is reasserting itself and call the bearish case into question.
Aluminium
Fundamental Backdrop
LME Aluminium is trading near $3,190–3,195 a tonne, extending a sharp rebound from this month’s four-month low of $3,085, as Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea open a second supply-risk front alongside an already largely stalled Strait of Hormuz, a corridor that carries roughly 9% of global primary aluminium supply. LME warehouse stocks remain at their lowest levels since 2022, even as Emirates Global Aluminium’s restart of its Al Taweelah refinery, running ahead of schedule, offers a longer-term partial offset.
Technical Outlook
The metal has reclaimed its 50-day moving average after basing at the four-month low, with momentum turning higher on the back of the fresh geopolitical supply threat. A sustained hold above $3,140 keeps this trade’s $3,290 target in play, with $3,350 the next region of interest on further strength. A close back below $3,075, this trade’s stop-loss level, would suggest the EGA restart and softer China demand are outweighing the shipping-risk premium.
Crude Oil (WTI)
Fundamental Backdrop
WTI Crude Oil is trading near $91.20, holding most of a historic weekly surge after Brent briefly topped $100 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since May, following Houthi attacks on two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea. President Trump has threatened “major military punishment” for further tanker strikes and told Axios he is weighing a “massive attack” on Iran, while Goldman Sachs has floated Brent exceeding $120 in the fourth quarter if the Hormuz disruption persists through next year.
Technical Outlook
The market has pulled back modestly from Thursday’s spike highs, a normal digestion pattern after such a sharp weekly move, but remains firmly above its 50-day moving average with momentum still constructive. A hold above $88.20 keeps this trade’s $96.50 target in view, with a retest of the $100 psychological level the next region flagged by desks on further escalation. A close back below $84.80, this trade’s stop-loss level, would suggest a genuine de-escalation headline is being priced.
Hang Seng
Fundamental Backdrop
The Hang Seng is trading near 24,915.95, down 1.17% on the day, giving back a meaningful part of Thursday’s 1.28% tech-led rally to 25,210.81 as the widening Red Sea conflict and the fresh spike in oil prices weigh on regional risk appetite. Gains in Tencent, Meituan and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing that drove Thursday’s bounce are proving harder to sustain into Friday, even as continued fundraising momentum among Hong Kong-listed AI and chip names offers some underlying support.
Technical Outlook
The index remains within its recent 24,630–25,250 range, trading back toward its 100-day moving average near 24,632 after Thursday’s tech-led bounce faded. A sustained hold above 24,920 keeps this trade’s 25,600 target in view, with a break of the 25,250 area opening the way toward the index’s recent highs. A close back below 24,620, this trade’s stop-loss level, would suggest the oil-driven risk-off tone is now dominating the tech-sector tailwind.
Dogecoin
Fundamental Backdrop
Dogecoin is trading near $0.0691, down more than 5% over the past 24 hours, as the widening Middle East conflict drives a broad risk-off move across digital assets alongside weaker Wall Street futures. Trading volume has risen sharply alongside the decline, a pattern more consistent with position-reducing than accumulation, and the Fear & Greed Index for crypto has slipped deep into “Extreme Fear” territory.
Technical Outlook
The four-hour chart is bearish, with the 50-day moving average now turning lower and price trading beneath it. A break below $0.0680 would expose this trade’s $0.0630 target and, on further weakness, the $0.0600 psychological level. A close back above $0.0768, this trade’s stop-loss level, would suggest the broader risk-off wave is fading and call the bearish case into question.
Cardano
Fundamental Backdrop
Cardano is trading near $0.176, holding up comparatively well against the broader crypto risk-off move on the strength of its Van Rossem hard fork, which activated on 18 July and improves smart-contract efficiency and security. That structural tailwind is being partly offset by a $13 million bridge hack that drained NIGHT tokens from Cardano’s Midnight privacy sidechain, though large whale wallets have continued to add to holdings, now at their highest level since February 2023.
Technical Outlook
The four-hour chart is bullish, with the 50-day moving average rising, while the daily and weekly charts remain more mixed as the 200-day moving average continues to slope lower. A hold above $0.168 keeps this trade’s $0.192 target in view, with $0.182 the next resistance region flagged by several desks. A close back below $0.159, this trade’s stop-loss level, would suggest the bridge-hack headline and the broader risk-off tide are outweighing the hard-fork tailwind.
Asian Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Asian Session Summary — Friday, 24 July 2026 (Live Update)
Friday’s Asian session is dominated above all by the rapid widening of the Middle East conflict, after Houthi militants struck two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, opening a second supply-risk front alongside an already largely stalled Strait of Hormuz and sending Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time in two months while WTI holds near $91.20. That backdrop is keeping the Dollar broadly bid, expressing itself most acutely in USD/JPY, which has pushed to roughly 163.83, a fresh roughly 40-year low, even as Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama repeats that authorities remain prepared to take decisive steps and a fresh US Treasury FX report calls excessive yen volatility undesirable. NZD/USD is extending a third straight losing session near 0.5788 as that same oil-driven Dollar bid overwhelms the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hawkish July hike. Commodities are telling the session’s clearest story: Aluminium is rebounding hard toward $3,192 a tonne on Gulf and Red Sea supply-risk fears layered atop already-low LME inventories, while Crude Oil holds most of its historic weekly surge. Equities are more mixed, with the Hang Seng attempting to defend Thursday’s tech-led 1.28% rally to 25,210.81 even as the widening war caps broader regional risk appetite. Digital assets are broadly softer, with Dogecoin down more than 5% in 24 hours as risk-off deepens, while Cardano holds up comparatively well near $0.176 on its Van Rossem hard fork even as a $13 million bridge hack on its Midnight sidechain weighs on sentiment. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Crude Oil dips toward $88.20, targeting $96.50 — a genuinely widening, two-front Middle East supply shock is a powerful tailwind, though any credible de-escalation or ceasefire headline is a real risk that could reverse the move sharply and without warning.
For the individual instruments: USD/JPY buy dips toward 163.20, stop 162.40, target 165.30 — a genuinely wide BoJ-Fed rate gap and persistent carry demand are strong tailwinds, though rising, deliberately unpredictable intervention risk from Japan’s Ministry of Finance is a real headwind. NZD/USD sell rallies toward 0.5830, stop 0.5878, target 0.5680 — a broadly firm, oil-supported Dollar is a genuine headwind for the pair, though the RBNZ’s hawkish tilt is a real risk to the downside case. Aluminium buy dips toward $3,140, stop $3,075, target $3,290 — a genuine two-front Gulf and Red Sea supply threat atop low LME inventories is a strong tailwind, though the EGA refinery restart is a real source of two-way headline risk. Crude Oil buy dips toward $88.20, stop $84.80, target $96.50 — an escalating, two-front Middle East conflict is a powerful tailwind, though any credible de-escalation headline is a real risk to the upside case. Hang Seng buy dips toward 24,920, stop 24,620, target 25,600 — Thursday’s genuine tech-sector rally is a real tailwind, though the widening regional war is a genuine headwind to regional risk appetite. Dogecoin sell rallies toward $0.0735, stop $0.0768, target $0.0630 — a broad, geopolitically driven risk-off wave is a genuine headwind, though a sharp de-escalation could just as quickly reverse the move. Cardano buy dips toward $0.168, stop $0.159, target $0.192 — the Van Rossem hard fork and rising whale accumulation are genuine tailwinds, though the Midnight bridge hack and broader crypto risk-off are real, offsetting risks. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are any further tanker attacks or naval escalation in the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz, fresh intervention signals or action from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the durability of Thursday’s Hong Kong tech rally against the widening war, and next week’s FOMC meeting. Size positions accordingly, and note that the geopolitical backdrop remains exceptionally fluid and carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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