Pound Resilience & Crypto Pressure | Technical Analysis -European session | Capital Street FX Daily Brief · 29 May 2026
Pound Under Pressure & Crypto Sell-Off
USDT $0.9987 · XRP $1.29 · Unilever 4,254p · EU 10Y 3.34% · UK 10Y Gilt 4.82%
Full Trade Ideas · Technical Charts · Economic Calendar · Macro Fundamentals · FAQ
“European equities edge higher Friday as 60-day Iran ceasefire optimism pushes Brent back above $111 and the FTSE 100 surges past 10,400 — yet the pound retreats from multi-week highs as USD safe-haven demand flickers back.”
The dominant macro catalyst this Friday morning is a tentative agreement between US and Iranian negotiators for a 60-day ceasefire extension and talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme. Axios first reported the deal; however President Trump has yet to sign off, keeping markets in a nervous equilibrium. Risk assets are rising, oil is surging, and bond yields are declining — all at once — reflecting the unusual duality of “relief” and “uncertainty” that has characterised the entire Iran war era since February 28.
The Euro Stoxx 50 opened +0.5% and the FTSE 100 is outperforming peers, printing above 10,400 for the first time this week. Sterling is under mild pressure as safe-haven dollar demand persists and traders scale back BoE rate hike bets following a cooling UK labour market and softer CPI prints. The EU 10-year yield has eased to 3.34% from 3.47% last month. Crypto is broadly lower, with XRP down nearly 3% and BTC below $74,000 — a reflection of risk positioning unwinding after last month’s crypto ETF-driven enthusiasm.
Top Stories Driving the European Session
High-impact catalysts, macro events, and geopolitical drivers for today’s session
GBP/USD & EUR/JPY — Trade Setups for the Session
Entry · Stop Loss · Take Profit · Technical Analysis · Fundamental Context
Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading defensively near 1.3439, pulling back from the 1.3634 52-week high printed earlier this month. The pair has broken the near-term rising trendline from the March lows. On the H4 chart, price is below the 20-period EMA and the MACD is crossing bearish. Key support sits at 1.3380 (50-day EMA) and 1.3310 (confluence with the April swing low). A sustained break below 1.3439 on a 4H close opens the door to 1.3380.
Fundamental Context
The key driver is a cooling macro backdrop for the UK. Recent BoE-sensitive data has printed soft: unemployment is ticking higher, CPI has come in below forecast, and economic activity is slowing. The market has scaled back bets on further BoE hikes, which previously underpinned cable above 1.35. The dollar meanwhile is finding episodic safe-haven support as markets await Trump’s approval of the Iran ceasefire MOU. If Trump delays or rejects the deal, USD could spike sharply, accelerating GBP/USD weakness toward 1.33. Conversely, a Trump confirmation would restore risk appetite and could lift cable back toward 1.3560.
