Treasury Yields Surge to Fresh Highs and the S&P 500 Slides as Oil Tops $91 on the Iran Truce Expiry, While Home Depot Beats and Bitcoin Bucks the Selloff | Technical Analysis – US Session | August-18-2026 | Capital Street FX
Treasury Yields Surge to Fresh Highs and the S&P 500 Slides as Oil Tops $91 on the Iran Truce Expiry, While Home Depot Beats and Bitcoin Bucks the Selloff
USD/CAD · USD/CHF · Gold · Brent Crude Oil · S&P 500 · US 10Y Yield · Bitcoin · BNB — live coverage through the US trading session
“The US session is telling a different story than Europe did this morning: it’s the long end of the Treasury curve doing the damage now, with the 30-year at a 19-year high, and that’s exactly the kind of move that keeps hitting the Nasdaq while giving the Dollar a genuine, yield-driven bid against everything except Crude-linked CAD and safe-haven CHF.”
Tuesday’s US session opened with equities on the back foot as Treasury yields extended their climb, with the 10-year note pushing toward 4.73%-4.74% and the 30-year bond touching its highest level since 2007 near 5.32%. The move reflects a combination of stubborn inflation expectations, now above 4% in the University of Michigan’s survey for a fifth straight month, and a wave of record corporate bond issuance from AI-focused companies that is competing with Treasuries for investor demand. The S&P 500 has slipped from last week’s record above 7,800 to trade near 7,709, while the Nasdaq Composite has led losses, down more than 1% as higher discount rates weigh hardest on richly-valued growth names.
The more consequential story for cross-asset positioning is the divergence opening up between traditional risk assets and crude oil: Brent has pushed above $91 a barrel and WTI toward $85 as the formal expiry of the 60-day US-Iran interim arrangement removes the last diplomatic buffer around the Strait of Hormuz, with tanker transits through the waterway collapsing over the weekend. That combination of a firmer, yield-driven Dollar and a firmer Crude complex is an unusual pairing that is capping Gold’s rally even as the metal holds a sizeable year-to-date gain, while keeping USD/CAD anchored as oil-linked Loonie strength offsets the broader Dollar bid. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading as something of an “anti-Dollar” today, rising even as equities fall, a divergence several desks are flagging as markets await Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and the week’s heavy slate of retail earnings.
US Market News — Live Now, 18 August 2026
Top-moving headlines shaping the US session, updated through the morning
US-Iran Truce Formally Expires, Trump Threatens Oman Over Hormuz
The 60-day interim arrangement between Washington and Tehran expired Monday with no broader peace deal, and President Trump warned the US would respond forcefully if Oman interferes with its blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent Crude above $91 and WTI toward $85 as tanker traffic through the strait collapses.
Geopolitics30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High, S&P 500 Slides
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to roughly 4.73%-4.74% and the 30-year has pushed to its highest level since 2007 near 5.32%, driven by record AI-related corporate bond issuance and sticky inflation expectations, pressuring the S&P 500 toward 7,709 and dragging the Nasdaq Composite down more than 1%.
Rates & EquitiesHome Depot Beats on Top and Bottom Line Ahead of Target, Walmart
Home Depot reported fiscal Q2 sales up 5.7% to $47.9 billion with comparable sales up 1.7% and diluted EPS of $4.79, a firmer-than-expected print that sets an early, cautiously encouraging tone for Target and Lowe’s on Wednesday and Walmart on Thursday.
EarningsGold Retreats From Two-Month High as Yields and Oil Both Climb
Gold has pulled back to trade near $4,390 an ounce after touching a fresh two-month peak close to $4,450 on Monday, as the combination of rising real yields and a firmer Crude-driven Dollar caps near-term upside, even though the metal remains up more than 30% over the past year.
CommoditiesBitcoin Jumps Toward $64,500 as Equities Fall, BNB Lags
Bitcoin has climbed more than 1% to trade near $64,400, recovering from Monday’s dip below $63,000, in a divergence from falling equities that some desks are framing as an “anti-Dollar” bid, while BNB trades more cautiously near $603, up only modestly on the day.
CryptoUSD/CAD Steady, USD/CHF Softer as Oil and Safe-Haven Flows Offset Dollar Bid
USD/CAD is little changed near 1.3872 as the Crude rally props up the oil-linked Loonie even as US yields climb, while USD/CHF has eased toward 0.8073 as Switzerland’s traditional safe-haven status draws bids amid the unresolved Hormuz standoff.
FXLive · Updated mid-session, Tuesday 18 August 2026
US Session Economic Calendar — 18 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the US trading day (times in ET as noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸/🇮🇷Today, formally expired | US-Iran 60-Day Interim Arrangement Expires | Trump threatens a forceful response if Oman interferes with the US Hormuz blockade; no peace deal in place | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key driver behind Crude’s rally toward $91 and elevated Gold and Bund/Treasury demand for cover |
| 🇺🇸6:00 AM ET | Home Depot Fiscal Q2 Earnings | Reported: Sales $47.9B (+5.7%), comparable sales +1.7%, diluted EPS $4.79 | 🔴 CRITICAL | Firmer-than-expected print offers an early, encouraging read on the housing-tied US consumer |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing, morning session | US 10Y / 30Y Treasury Yields | 10-year near 4.73%-4.74%; 30-year at a fresh 19-year high near 5.32% | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary driver of today’s equity weakness and the session’s broader Dollar-firming bias |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | S&P 500 / Nasdaq Composite | S&P 500 near 7,709 (-0.5%); Nasdaq down over 1% on rate-sensitive tech weakness | 🟢 MEDIUM | Confirms the session’s risk-off, yields-led tone across US equity benchmarks |
| 🇺🇸Wed 19 Aug (this week) | FOMC July Meeting Minutes | Minutes from the meeting where three members dissented in favor of an immediate hike | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key swing factor for the Dollar and Treasury yields through the middle of the week |
| 💼Wed-Thu (this week) | Target, Lowe’s and Walmart Earnings | Target and Lowe’s report Wednesday; Walmart reports Thursday | 🟢 MEDIUM | Will confirm or challenge the constructive read from Home Depot’s results on US consumer health |
| 🇺🇸Later this week | Jackson Hole Symposium — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh | Markets look for fresh guidance on the rate path from the Fed Chair’s remarks | 🔴 CRITICAL | A hawkish tone would extend the yield-driven Dollar bid; a dovish surprise risks a sharp reversal |
| 🇱🇭Ongoing | Israel Strikes on Lebanon / Hezbollah | Continuing fallout from recent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon | 🟢 MEDIUM | Adds to the geopolitical premium already priced into Crude, Gold and safe-haven flows |
US Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
USD/CAD
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CAD is holding close to 1.3872 as two opposing forces net out: the sharp rise in US Treasury yields is a genuine Dollar tailwind, while the Crude Oil rally toward $91 Brent is supporting the oil-exporting Loonie. Canadian employment surprised strongly to the upside in July, narrowing the US-Canada yield spread and adding a further layer of support for CAD into the pair’s recent pullback from 1.40.
Technical Outlook
The pair is consolidating within its recent 1.3860-1.3940 band, well inside the 52-week range of 1.3481-1.4250. A confirmed break above 1.3950 would expose the 1.4020-1.4050 resistance zone, while a slip back below 1.3820 risks a retest of the 1.3770 support area.
USD/CHF
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CHF is trading softer near 0.8073, snapping a recent four-day winning streak, as the Franc’s traditional safe-haven status draws bids amid the unresolved Hormuz standoff and the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, even as broadly rising US yields would ordinarily favor the Dollar side of the pair.
Technical Outlook
Today’s range of 0.8068-0.8146 sits within the broader 52-week range of 0.7604-0.8208. A break below the 50-day moving average near 0.8080 would open the door to a test of 0.8000, while a reclaim of 0.8130-0.8150 would put the July 29 high near 0.8207 back in view.
Gold
Fundamental Backdrop
Gold is correcting toward $4,390 after touching a fresh two-month peak near $4,450 on Monday, as the unusual combination of a firmer, yield-driven Dollar and rising Crude prices caps near-term momentum. The metal remains up more than 30% over the past year, and fading Fed rate-hike bets combined with unresolved Middle East risk continue to underpin the broader uptrend.
Technical Outlook
Today’s range of $4,386-$4,436 sits comfortably inside the 52-week range of $3,311-$5,595. A confirmed break below $4,330 would risk a deeper pullback toward the 100-day moving average, while a reclaim of $4,436 would put the $4,450 swing high, and then the psychological $4,500 level, back in focus.
Brent Crude Oil
Fundamental Backdrop
Brent Crude has extended its rally to trade near $91.30, its highest level since late July, as the formal expiry of the US-Iran interim arrangement removes the last diplomatic buffer around the Strait of Hormuz. Only a handful of commodity vessels transited the waterway over the weekend, and President Trump’s threat to target Oman if it interferes with the US blockade adds a further layer of supply-side risk premium.
Technical Outlook
The current advance builds on a more than 5% weekly gain, with the market watching the psychological $100 level as the next major upside target if Hormuz tensions escalate further. A slip back below $89.50 would suggest the rally is pausing for consolidation, while a break above $91.30 keeps the path toward $96.00 open.
S&P 500
Fundamental Backdrop
The S&P 500 is retreating from last week’s record above 7,800 as the surge in Treasury yields, led by the 30-year hitting a 19-year high, raises the discount rate applied to future earnings and pressures rate-sensitive growth names hardest. Home Depot’s better-than-expected results offer a partial offset by supporting consumer-facing sectors, but the broader tape remains dominated by the rates and geopolitics story.
Technical Outlook
Today’s session extends a downbeat start to the week, with the index testing support near 7,700. A break below that level opens the door to the 7,580-7,600 zone, while a recovery back above 7,780 would ease near-term pressure and put the record highs near 7,800 back in view.
US 10Y Yield
Fundamental Backdrop
The 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 4.73%-4.74%, with the 30-year at a fresh 19-year high near 5.32%, as a wave of record AI-related corporate bond issuance competes with Treasuries for investor demand and University of Michigan inflation expectations hold above 4% for a fifth straight month. Three FOMC members dissented in favor of a rate hike at the last meeting, keeping the hawkish repricing intact into Wednesday’s minutes.
Technical Outlook
Yields are testing the upper end of their recent range, not far from the 19-month high near 4.75% touched earlier this month. A break above 4.75% would open the door toward 4.90%, while a pullback below 4.65% would suggest the recent bond-market selloff is due for a pause.
Bitcoin
Fundamental Backdrop
Bitcoin is trading near $64,400, up more than 1% on the day and recovering from Monday’s dip below $63,000, even as US equities slide on the back of rising Treasury yields. That divergence has some desks framing Bitcoin as an “anti-Dollar” asset today, drawing bids alongside Gold even though outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs topped $385 million last week.
Technical Outlook
The reported 24-hour range of roughly $62,650-$64,550 sits well inside the 52-week range of $57,833-$126,186. A break above $64,550 would open the door toward $67,000, while a slip back below $62,800 risks a retest of the recent weekly low near $62,280.
BNB
Fundamental Backdrop
BNB is trading close to $603, broadly flat on the day and lagging Bitcoin’s session recovery even as the wider crypto market benefits from the same “anti-Dollar” bid that has lifted Bitcoin and Gold. The relative underperformance keeps BNB range-bound while traders wait for a clearer directional catalyst from Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.
Technical Outlook
BNB remains inside a tight consolidation band roughly between $585 and $625. A break above $625 would expose the token’s recent highs, while a slip back below $585 risks a deeper pullback toward the $570 support zone.
US Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why is the Dollar firming in the US session after being soft in Europe?
Why is the S&P 500 falling even though Home Depot beat earnings expectations?
Why is Gold pulling back if the Dollar and Treasury yields are both rising, which usually pressures Gold anyway?
Why is Bitcoin rising while stocks and even Gold’s rally are both under pressure?
What should traders watch for the rest of the US session?
US Session Summary — Tuesday, 18 August 2026 (Live Update)
Tuesday’s US session is trading with a yields-up, risk-off tone as markets digest the formal expiry of the 60-day US-Iran interim arrangement alongside a sharp climb in long-dated Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed to roughly 4.73%-4.74% while the 30-year has touched a fresh 19-year high near 5.32%, keeping the S&P 500 pinned near 7,709, down about 0.5%, with the Nasdaq Composite leading losses on rate-sensitive tech weakness. Crude Oil is the session’s clearest directional story, with Brent near $91.30 and WTI near $85 as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has all but collapsed and President Trump has warned Oman against interfering with the US blockade. Gold near $4,390 is correcting from Monday’s near two-month high around $4,450 as the firmer, yield-driven Dollar and rising Crude prices combine to cap near-term upside. In FX, USD/CAD near 1.3872 is little changed as Crude strength offsets the broader Dollar bid, while USD/CHF near 0.8073 is softer as safe-haven Franc demand outweighs the yield story. Home Depot’s stronger-than-expected fiscal Q2 results, with sales up 5.7% to $47.9 billion and comparable sales up 1.7%, offer an encouraging early read on the US consumer ahead of Target and Lowe’s on Wednesday and Walmart on Thursday. In digital assets, Bitcoin near $64,400 is bucking the equity selloff in an “anti-Dollar” style move, while BNB near $603 lags with a more muted, range-bound performance. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Brent Crude dips toward $89.50, targeting $96.00 — the collapse in Hormuz shipping traffic and the expired US-Iran arrangement are a powerful tailwind, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or a resumption of covert Gulf flows remains a real source of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: USD/CAD buy dips toward 1.3820, stop 1.3770, target 1.3950 — the yield-driven Dollar bid is a genuine tailwind, though the Crude rally’s support for the oil-linked Loonie is a real source of two-way risk. USD/CHF sell rallies toward 0.8130, stop 0.8180, target 0.8000 — safe-haven Franc demand is a genuine headwind for the pair, though a sharp further rise in US yields is a real source of two-way risk. Gold buy dips toward $4,330, stop $4,270, target $4,460 — unresolved Middle East risk is a genuine tailwind, though the firmer yield-driven Dollar is a real source of two-way risk. Brent Crude Oil buy dips toward $89.50, stop $87.00, target $96.00 — the Hormuz shipping collapse is a genuine tailwind, though a swift diplomatic breakthrough is a real source of two-way risk. S&P 500 sell rallies toward 7,780, stop 7,850, target 7,580 — rising Treasury yields are a genuine headwind, though resilient retail earnings are a real source of two-way risk. US 10Y Yield buy dips toward 4.65%, stop 4.55%, target 4.90% — record corporate debt issuance and sticky inflation expectations are a genuine tailwind, though a dovish surprise from Wednesday’s FOMC minutes is a real source of two-way risk. Bitcoin buy dips toward $62,800, stop $61,000, target $67,000 — today’s anti-Dollar bid is a tentative tailwind, though continued spot ETF outflows are a real source of two-way risk. BNB buy dips toward $585, stop $570, target $625 — the broader crypto recovery is a tentative tailwind, though its underperformance versus Bitcoin is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are any fresh Hormuz or Israel-Hezbollah headlines, the run of retail earnings from Target, Lowe’s and Walmart, and the run-up to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply into the close.
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