Skip to main content

Capital Street FX

US Session 5 october 2026

US Session Report: Dollar Firm as 10-Year Yield Holds Near 5.31%, While Nasdaq 100 Edges Higher While Gold Holds Near $4,135 | 5 October 2026

October 5, 2026
CSFX ResearchDesk
US Session Report: Dollar Firm as 10-Year Yield Holds Near 5.31%, While Nasdaq 100 Edges Higher While Gold Holds Near $4,135
US Session Report · Live · Monday, 5 October 2026

US Session Report: Dollar Firm as 10-Year Yield Holds Near 5.31%, While Nasdaq 100 Edges Higher While Gold Holds Near $4,135

Wall Street opened mixed on Monday as rising Treasury yields offset a tech-led bid: the S&P 500 is near 7,736 (+0.18%), the Dow is -0.30% and the Nasdaq Composite about +0.4%. The US 10-year yield is 5.31% after Friday’s soft +29K payrolls cut October Fed hike odds, with about 78% priced for a hold.

USD/CAD is 1.4257, USD/CHF 0.8317, gold $4,134.76, WTI $90.01, Nasdaq 100 near 30,955, Bitcoin about $85,668 and Litecoin $71.00. Focus: ISM services (14:00 GMT, consensus 55.7), Fed minutes on Wednesday and Iran/Hormuz headlines.

Section 1 · Top Stories

Top Stories Moving the Market

FX · USD/CAD
1.4257near highs

Loonie weighed by oil and BoC

Pair sits under 1.4290 resistance, its strongest since April 2025, as crude eases and BoC stays dovish.

FX · USD/CHF
0.8317rebound

Swissie capped below 0.8320

Haven flows on Hormuz tensions lift the pair after two down days; Fed hold odds near 78%.

EQUITIES · US
S&P 7,736+0.18%

Wall Street mixed at the open

Dow 51,021 is -0.30%, Nasdaq Composite +0.4%; investors weigh high yields and Wednesday’s Fed minutes (TheStreet, Yahoo Finance).

INDEX · NASDAQ 100
30,955~+0.5%

AI trade keeps tech near records

Friday’s rally put the Nasdaq at a record intraday high; Q3 earnings from Delta, PepsiCo and Levi’s start this week.

RATES · US 10Y
5.31%firmer

Yields firm near 2002 highs

Weak payrolls (+29K vs ~90K) cut October hike odds; December hike still priced, 30-year near 5.6%.

ENERGY · WTI
$90.01-1.21%

Oil slips on G7 release

Brent near $101; Iran refuses to reopen Hormuz without preconditions, keeping the risk premium alive.

METALS · GOLD
$4,134.76-0.19%

Gold capped as yields and dollar firm

Bullion fell about 3.4% last week and trades between $4,125 and $4,170 as the dollar hits a fresh YTD high and 10-year yields stay near 5.31%; softer October hike odds limit the downside (FXStreet, Investing.com).

CRYPTO · BTC / LTC
BTC $85,668LTC $71.00

Crypto firm as hike fears fade

Bitcoin holds the mid-$85,000s; Litecoin is up about 3% in 24 hours.

Section 2 · Trade Ideas

Technical Summary & Trade Ideas

USD/CAD

FX · Dovish BoC, softer crude
1.4257near highest since Apr 2025
USD/CAD daily chart
Chart by TradingView
Bullish above 1.4200; 1.4290 is the key 61.8% retracement
S21.4150
S11.4200
LAST1.4257
R11.4290
R21.4415
1.41501.42571.4415

Pair holds just under 1.4290 as lower crude and a dovish Bank of Canada weigh on the loonie (FXStreet, Tradingpedia). RSI is overbought, so a break of 1.4200 would signal a short-term top; a decisive close above 1.4290 opens 1.4415 and 1.4497. Markets still price over 80% odds of a Fed hike by year-end. Levels are conditional.

USD/CHF

FX · Haven flows, Mideast tensions
0.8317rebounding after two down days
USD/CHF daily chart
Chart by TradingView
Neutral-bullish while below 0.8320 resistance
S20.8200
S10.8250
LAST0.8317
R10.8320
R20.8380
0.82000.83170.8380

USD/CHF recovers on Iran-related haven demand and a firm dollar, but FXStreet notes the Swissie is withstanding the bond selloff, capping gains below 0.8320. Fed hold odds are about 78% for October, with TD Securities expecting hikes in December and March. A hotter ISM services print would favour 0.8380; a miss favours 0.8250. Levels are conditional.

Gold

Metals · XAU/USD
$4,134.76-0.19%
Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart
Chart by TradingView
Bearish below $4,170; rising trendline near $4,100 is key support
S2$3,965
S1$4,100
LAST$4,134.76
R1$4,170
R2$4,272
$3,965$4,134.76$4,272

Gold is squeezed inside a narrowing triangle on the daily chart, sitting just above the rising support line from the June-July lows and under a descending resistance line from the late-August high. It trades below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and RSI near 38 sits under its own average of about 43, so momentum is soft. A daily close below $4,100 would break the triangle and open $3,965; a push through $4,170 targets the 50-day average near $4,272. Elevated yields near 5.31% keep a lid on the metal. Levels are conditional.

Crude Oil (WTI)

Energy · Gulf supply and G7 release
$90.01-1.21%
WTI crude oil daily chart
Chart by TradingView
Bearish below $92.00; $88.06 is first support
S2$86.00
S1$88.06
LAST$90.01
R1$92.00
R2$94.00
$86.00$90.01$94.00

WTI slips as the G7 stock release and recovering Gulf exports add supply and OPEC+ holds quotas steady. Brent sits near $101. Risk premium remains because Iran refuses to reopen Hormuz without preconditions and tanker attacks continue. A Hormuz headline can reverse the drop quickly. Levels are conditional.

Nasdaq 100

Equities · AI and semis lead
30,955~+0.5% on the day
Nasdaq 100 daily chart
Chart by TradingView
Bullish while above 30,500; record zone 31,017
S230,300
S130,500
LAST30,955
R131,017
R231,281
30,30030,95531,281

Tech leads again after Friday’s 1.19% Nasdaq Composite rally to a record intraday high, with the Composite up about 0.4% at the open (TheStreet). Rising Treasury yields are the main brake. The 31,017 record and 31,281 are overhead; a failed breakout risks a pullback toward 30,500. Index level is approximate and should be checked against the live Investing.com quote. Levels are conditional.

US 10Y Yield

Rates · Treasury
5.31%firmer on the day
US 10-year Treasury yield daily chart
Chart by TradingView
Elevated; 5.34% week peak is resistance
S25.00%
S15.17%
LAST5.31%
R15.34%
R25.40%
5.00%5.31%5.40%

The 10-year yield sits just under the week’s peak above 5.34%, the highest since 2002; weak payrolls trimmed October hike odds, but yields stay near multi-decade highs. The 30-year is near 5.6%. A strong ISM services print would push yields back toward 5.34%; a miss could test 5.17%. Levels are conditional.

BTC/USD

Crypto · Bitcoin
$85,668~flat on the day
BTC/USD daily chart
Chart by TradingView
Neutral-bullish while above $82,000
S2$80,000
S1$82,000
LAST$85,668
R1$87,000
R2$90,000
$80,000$85,668$90,000

Bitcoin began October near $85,000 on hopes the Fed stays on hold, trading around $85,668. A break below $82,000 would bring September’s lower range back into view; reclaiming $87,000 opens $90,000. High yields remain the main headwind. Levels are conditional.

Litecoin (LTC/USD)

Crypto · Litecoin
$71.00+3.00% (24h)
LTC/USD daily chart
Chart by TradingView
Bullish while above $68.80
S2$65.00
S1$68.80
LAST$71.00
R1$72.30
R2$75.00
$65.00$71.00$75.00

Litecoin extends a rebound, up about 41% on a month ago but still roughly 40% below a year ago (Coinbase). It follows Bitcoin’s risk tone, so ISM and Fed-minutes yield moves matter. Support is $68.80; resistance is the recent $72.30 high. Levels are conditional.

Section 3 · Next Session

What to Expect from the Next Session

  1. ISM services at 14:00 GMT. Consensus is 55.7 vs 55.4 prior. A strong print lifts yields toward 5.34%, supports USD/CAD above 1.4290 and pressures gold toward $4,100 and crypto; a miss favours gold toward $4,170 and Nasdaq 100 near 31,000.
  2. Fed minutes on Wednesday. A hawkish tone around the ‘one more hike’ debate would pressure Bitcoin below $82,000 and Litecoin below $68.80.
  3. Hormuz and oil. Iranian conditions, tanker attacks and G7 stock-release news steer WTI between $88 and $92 and the loonie.
Section 4 · Market Drivers

What Is Moving the Market

Fed and yields

Weak September payrolls (+29K, unemployment 4.2%) trimmed hike odds, yet markets still see more than 80% odds of a hike by year-end and the 10-year sits near 5.31%.

Oil and Gulf

WTI near $90 and Brent near $101 ease on the G7 release, but Hormuz remains closed to a deal and risk premiums persist.

Tech leadership

AI and semiconductor strength keeps the Nasdaq near records despite high yields; Q3 earnings season builds this week.

Haven and crypto flows

Geopolitics lifts USD/CHF while softer hike odds cushion gold near $4,100 and keep Bitcoin near $85,000.

Section 5 · Calendar

Economic Calendar / Events

TimeCountryEventResult / Watch
Fri 12:30 GMTUSNon-farm payrolls (Sep)+29K vs ~90K; unemployment 4.2%
Today 14:00 GMTUSISM services PMI (Sep)Consensus 55.7; prior 55.4
Tue 6 OctUSTrade balanceDollar and growth read
Wed 7 Oct 18:00 GMTUSFOMC minutes (Sep)Tests hike guidance
Thu 8 OctUSJobless claimsLabour market follow-up
Fri 9 OctCA/USCanada jobs, UMich sentimentUSD/CAD and yield driver
27-28 OctUSFOMC meetingNext rate decision
Section 6 · Conclusion

Summary

The US session is cautious: yields remain near multi-decade highs while tech holds the index near records. USD/CAD is 1.4257, USD/CHF 0.8317, gold $4,134.76, WTI $90.01, the US 10-year 5.31%, Bitcoin about $85,668 and Litecoin $71.00. ISM services and Wednesday’s Fed minutes are the next major tests.

Section 7 · FAQ

FAQ

Q:Why is the dollar firm despite weak jobs data?

A:Yields near 5.31%, haven demand from Hormuz tensions and year-end hike pricing outweigh softer October hike odds.

Q:What are the key levels today?

A:USD/CAD 1.4200/1.4290, USD/CHF 0.8250/0.8320, gold $4,100/$4,170, WTI $88.06/$92.00, Nasdaq 100 30,500/31,017, US 10Y 5.17%/5.34%, BTC $82,000/$87,000, LTC $68.80/$72.30. These are conditional references, not forecasts.

Capital Street FX · US Session Live Report · Monday, 5 October 2026

For informational and educational purposes only; not investment advice. Trading CFDs, futures, FX and crypto-assets involves significant risk of loss. Levels are conditional technical references, not forecasts.

Compiled from Investing.com, FXStreet, TheStreet, Yahoo Finance, Tradingpedia, Trading Economics, Coinbase and CoinGecko. Bloomberg and Reuters.com could not be read in full. Prices move continuously and the Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin and USD/CAD, USD/CHF figures are approximate session snapshots; verify against live Investing.com quotes before trading. ISM services had not been confirmed at the time of writing.

USD/CADUSD/CHFGoldCrude OilNasdaq 100US 10YBTC/USDLitecoin