US Session Report: Dollar Firm as 10-Year Yield Holds Near 5.31%, While Nasdaq 100 Edges Higher While Gold Holds Near $4,135 | 5 October 2026
US Session Report: Dollar Firm as 10-Year Yield Holds Near 5.31%, While Nasdaq 100 Edges Higher While Gold Holds Near $4,135
Wall Street opened mixed on Monday as rising Treasury yields offset a tech-led bid: the S&P 500 is near 7,736 (+0.18%), the Dow is -0.30% and the Nasdaq Composite about +0.4%. The US 10-year yield is 5.31% after Friday’s soft +29K payrolls cut October Fed hike odds, with about 78% priced for a hold.
USD/CAD is 1.4257, USD/CHF 0.8317, gold $4,134.76, WTI $90.01, Nasdaq 100 near 30,955, Bitcoin about $85,668 and Litecoin $71.00. Focus: ISM services (14:00 GMT, consensus 55.7), Fed minutes on Wednesday and Iran/Hormuz headlines.
Top Stories Moving the Market
Loonie weighed by oil and BoC
Pair sits under 1.4290 resistance, its strongest since April 2025, as crude eases and BoC stays dovish.
Swissie capped below 0.8320
Haven flows on Hormuz tensions lift the pair after two down days; Fed hold odds near 78%.
Wall Street mixed at the open
Dow 51,021 is -0.30%, Nasdaq Composite +0.4%; investors weigh high yields and Wednesday’s Fed minutes (TheStreet, Yahoo Finance).
AI trade keeps tech near records
Friday’s rally put the Nasdaq at a record intraday high; Q3 earnings from Delta, PepsiCo and Levi’s start this week.
Yields firm near 2002 highs
Weak payrolls (+29K vs ~90K) cut October hike odds; December hike still priced, 30-year near 5.6%.
Oil slips on G7 release
Brent near $101; Iran refuses to reopen Hormuz without preconditions, keeping the risk premium alive.
Gold capped as yields and dollar firm
Bullion fell about 3.4% last week and trades between $4,125 and $4,170 as the dollar hits a fresh YTD high and 10-year yields stay near 5.31%; softer October hike odds limit the downside (FXStreet, Investing.com).
Crypto firm as hike fears fade
Bitcoin holds the mid-$85,000s; Litecoin is up about 3% in 24 hours.
Technical Summary & Trade Ideas
USD/CAD
FX · Dovish BoC, softer crude
Pair holds just under 1.4290 as lower crude and a dovish Bank of Canada weigh on the loonie (FXStreet, Tradingpedia). RSI is overbought, so a break of 1.4200 would signal a short-term top; a decisive close above 1.4290 opens 1.4415 and 1.4497. Markets still price over 80% odds of a Fed hike by year-end. Levels are conditional.
USD/CHF
FX · Haven flows, Mideast tensions
USD/CHF recovers on Iran-related haven demand and a firm dollar, but FXStreet notes the Swissie is withstanding the bond selloff, capping gains below 0.8320. Fed hold odds are about 78% for October, with TD Securities expecting hikes in December and March. A hotter ISM services print would favour 0.8380; a miss favours 0.8250. Levels are conditional.
Gold
Metals · XAU/USD
Gold is squeezed inside a narrowing triangle on the daily chart, sitting just above the rising support line from the June-July lows and under a descending resistance line from the late-August high. It trades below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and RSI near 38 sits under its own average of about 43, so momentum is soft. A daily close below $4,100 would break the triangle and open $3,965; a push through $4,170 targets the 50-day average near $4,272. Elevated yields near 5.31% keep a lid on the metal. Levels are conditional.
Crude Oil (WTI)
Energy · Gulf supply and G7 release
WTI slips as the G7 stock release and recovering Gulf exports add supply and OPEC+ holds quotas steady. Brent sits near $101. Risk premium remains because Iran refuses to reopen Hormuz without preconditions and tanker attacks continue. A Hormuz headline can reverse the drop quickly. Levels are conditional.
Nasdaq 100
Equities · AI and semis lead
Tech leads again after Friday’s 1.19% Nasdaq Composite rally to a record intraday high, with the Composite up about 0.4% at the open (TheStreet). Rising Treasury yields are the main brake. The 31,017 record and 31,281 are overhead; a failed breakout risks a pullback toward 30,500. Index level is approximate and should be checked against the live Investing.com quote. Levels are conditional.
US 10Y Yield
Rates · Treasury
The 10-year yield sits just under the week’s peak above 5.34%, the highest since 2002; weak payrolls trimmed October hike odds, but yields stay near multi-decade highs. The 30-year is near 5.6%. A strong ISM services print would push yields back toward 5.34%; a miss could test 5.17%. Levels are conditional.
BTC/USD
Crypto · Bitcoin
Bitcoin began October near $85,000 on hopes the Fed stays on hold, trading around $85,668. A break below $82,000 would bring September’s lower range back into view; reclaiming $87,000 opens $90,000. High yields remain the main headwind. Levels are conditional.
Litecoin (LTC/USD)
Crypto · Litecoin
Litecoin extends a rebound, up about 41% on a month ago but still roughly 40% below a year ago (Coinbase). It follows Bitcoin’s risk tone, so ISM and Fed-minutes yield moves matter. Support is $68.80; resistance is the recent $72.30 high. Levels are conditional.
What to Expect from the Next Session
- ISM services at 14:00 GMT. Consensus is 55.7 vs 55.4 prior. A strong print lifts yields toward 5.34%, supports USD/CAD above 1.4290 and pressures gold toward $4,100 and crypto; a miss favours gold toward $4,170 and Nasdaq 100 near 31,000.
- Fed minutes on Wednesday. A hawkish tone around the ‘one more hike’ debate would pressure Bitcoin below $82,000 and Litecoin below $68.80.
- Hormuz and oil. Iranian conditions, tanker attacks and G7 stock-release news steer WTI between $88 and $92 and the loonie.
What Is Moving the Market
Fed and yields
Weak September payrolls (+29K, unemployment 4.2%) trimmed hike odds, yet markets still see more than 80% odds of a hike by year-end and the 10-year sits near 5.31%.
Oil and Gulf
WTI near $90 and Brent near $101 ease on the G7 release, but Hormuz remains closed to a deal and risk premiums persist.
Tech leadership
AI and semiconductor strength keeps the Nasdaq near records despite high yields; Q3 earnings season builds this week.
Haven and crypto flows
Geopolitics lifts USD/CHF while softer hike odds cushion gold near $4,100 and keep Bitcoin near $85,000.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time | Country | Event | Result / Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 12:30 GMT | US | Non-farm payrolls (Sep) | +29K vs ~90K; unemployment 4.2% |
| Today 14:00 GMT | US | ISM services PMI (Sep) | Consensus 55.7; prior 55.4 |
| Tue 6 Oct | US | Trade balance | Dollar and growth read |
| Wed 7 Oct 18:00 GMT | US | FOMC minutes (Sep) | Tests hike guidance |
| Thu 8 Oct | US | Jobless claims | Labour market follow-up |
| Fri 9 Oct | CA/US | Canada jobs, UMich sentiment | USD/CAD and yield driver |
| 27-28 Oct | US | FOMC meeting | Next rate decision |
Summary
The US session is cautious: yields remain near multi-decade highs while tech holds the index near records. USD/CAD is 1.4257, USD/CHF 0.8317, gold $4,134.76, WTI $90.01, the US 10-year 5.31%, Bitcoin about $85,668 and Litecoin $71.00. ISM services and Wednesday’s Fed minutes are the next major tests.
FAQ
Q:Why is the dollar firm despite weak jobs data?
A:Yields near 5.31%, haven demand from Hormuz tensions and year-end hike pricing outweigh softer October hike odds.
Q:What are the key levels today?
A:USD/CAD 1.4200/1.4290, USD/CHF 0.8250/0.8320, gold $4,100/$4,170, WTI $88.06/$92.00, Nasdaq 100 30,500/31,017, US 10Y 5.17%/5.34%, BTC $82,000/$87,000, LTC $68.80/$72.30. These are conditional references, not forecasts.
