US Session Report: Nasdaq 100 Hits a Record, Yields Slide and the Dollar Eases After a 29K Payrolls Miss as Oil Sinks to a One-Month Low | 2 October 2026
US Session Report: Nasdaq 100 Hits a Record, Yields Slide and the Dollar Eases After a 29K Payrolls Miss as Oil Sinks to a One-Month Low
Wall Street is rallying after September non-farm payrolls rose just 29,000 against forecasts of roughly 84,000-90,000, with unemployment up to 4.2% and July-August revised down by a combined 60,000. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% against 0.3% expected. The Nasdaq 100 hit a record 31,017.5 intraday and trades near 30,921.50 (+1.38%), the S&P 500 trades near 7,740 (+0.96%) and the Dow near 51,204 (+0.54%), the VIX is down 5% at 15.5 and the dollar index has slipped about 0.3% to 101.55.
USD/CAD is near 1.4243, USD/CHF near 0.8289, spot gold near $4,148.00, WTI near $90.40, the US 10-year yield at 5.252%, the 20-year near 5.638%, BTC near $85,521 and XRP near $1.511. Focus: October Fed hike odds have collapsed below one-in-five while a December hike is still nearly fully priced, oil is trading on US-Iran headlines and a possible European reserve release, and the weekly close.
Prices captured 14:50–14:57 GMT (20:20–20:27 IST · 10:50–10:57 ET)Top Stories Moving the Market
Jobs growth stalls in September
Payrolls rose only 29,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, partly because participation rose to 61.8%. August was revised down to +133K and July to -10K, a combined 60K fewer jobs than first reported.
Tech leads Wall Street to a record
The Nasdaq 100 jumped to a record high as traders pared Fed hike bets, with Nvidia (+2.6%) at a record intraday high, Tesla up over 5% after a Q3 delivery beat and Arm up almost 8%. Nike is down 5.6%, and storage names Seagate and Western Digital are off 14-15%.
Yields dip, then steady near 24-year highs
The 10-year dropped as low as about 5.18% right after the data but has climbed back to 5.252%, slightly higher on the day, after touching 5.344% on Thursday, its highest since 2002. The long end is lower, with the 30-year at 5.58%. Citi warned that rate swings without a Fed repricing are concerning.
October hike largely priced out
Futures now price less than a one-in-five chance of an October hike, down from about 70% a week ago, after a soft PCE print and today’s miss. A December hike is still priced near 90% after September’s move to 3.75-4.00%.
Dollar slips from 17-month highs
The greenback is retreating from Thursday’s 102.20 high, its strongest since April 2025. The Swiss franc is outperforming as a safe haven during the global bond sell-off, with USD/CHF near 0.8289 after a dip to its 20-day average.
Gold slips despite softer jobs
Spot gold spiked to $4,227.9 after the data but has turned lower near $4,148.00 as the 10-year yield climbed back, heading for a second straight weekly loss of more than 2% as high real yields limit demand for non-yielding bullion.
Oil slides to a one-month low
WTI touched $88.06, its lowest since early September, as European governments weighed releasing strategic reserves. Brent is near $100.34 (-1.93%). US-Iran tensions keep a risk premium in place.
Short squeeze lifts Bitcoin
Bitcoin spiked toward $87,000 on the jobs miss before easing back to about $85,521, with short liquidations of about $270M of roughly $363M total. XRP is up about 1.1% near $1.511 after rejecting $1.554, the top of its triangle.
Technical Summary & Trade Ideas
USD/CAD
FX · Loonie at a 17-month low as falling oil offsets a softer dollar
USD/CAD trades near 1.4243 (+0.14%), just under today’s 1.4246 high, in a 1.4200-1.4246 range, barely moved even as the dollar index slips, because WTI’s 2.7% drop removes support from Canada’s energy exports. On the daily chart the pair broke above its July-September falling trendline in mid-September and has climbed almost without a pause from about 1.38, leaving the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages far below at 1.3962-1.4022. The daily RSI near 77 is overbought, so chasing longs here carries pullback risk. A close above 1.4246 opens 1.4300; a break under 1.4200 would target 1.4150 and the late-September 1.4137 low. The BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75-4.00%) both decide on 28 October.
| Last1.4243 |
| Support1.4200 / 1.4150 |
| Resistance1.4246 / 1.4300 |
| Daily RSI~77 (overbought) |
USD/CHF
FX · Pullback inside a rising channel as the franc catches a haven bid
USD/CHF is down about 0.24% near 0.8289 after rejecting the top of its July-October rising channel near the 0.8382 52-week high. Today’s dip found buyers at 0.8227, right on the 20-day average at 0.8225, and the daily RSI has cooled from overbought to about 61. FXStreet notes the franc is drawing safe-haven demand during the global bond sell-off, and the payrolls miss weighs on the dollar side, but the channel and the 50-day average at 0.8142 keep the medium-term trend pointing up. A daily close below 0.8225 would expose 0.8142; recovering 0.8327 (today’s high) would put 0.8382 back in play. The SNB policy rate remains at 0%.
| Last0.8289 |
| Support0.8225 / 0.8142 |
| Resistance0.8327 / 0.8382 |
| 20-day MA0.8225 |
Gold
Metals · Spot gold slips inside a falling channel as yields hold firm
Spot gold is down about 0.7% near $4,148.00 after a post-payrolls spike to $4,227.9 faded as the 10-year yield climbed back to 5.252%. The daily chart shows a falling channel from the late-August high near $4,700, with price capped below the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages clustered at $4,288-4,320 and the RSI near 39. The metal is heading for a second weekly loss of more than 2%. Softer jobs data and lower October hike odds help, but a near-certain December hike keeps real yields high. Today’s $4,134 low is first support, then the late-September $4,090 area; only a move back above $4,228 would ease the bearish channel pressure.
| Last (spot)$4,148.00 |
| Support$4,134 / $4,090 |
| Resistance$4,228 / $4,290 |
| Day range$4,133.9-4,227.9 |
Crude Oil (WTI)
Energy · Testing channel support as Europe weighs a reserve release
WTI is down about 2.7% near $90.40, recovering from a drop to $88.06, its lowest in a month, as European governments consider releasing strategic reserves and Gulf supply recovers. The daily chart shows price sitting on the lower edge of the rising channel from the July low, with the 50- and 200-day averages at $88.28 and $86.36 just below and the 20-day at $95.45 capping rallies; the RSI near 47 is neutral. Brent trades just above $100. Two-way risk stays high: the Pentagon is reportedly weighing another carrier deployment, and Trump has reportedly told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms. A daily close below $88.28 would break the channel and target $86.36; reclaiming $91.90 and today’s $93.51 high would signal the risk premium is back.
| Last$90.40 |
| Support$88.28 / $86.36 |
| Resistance$91.90 / $93.51 |
| Day range$88.06-93.51 |
Nasdaq 100
Indices · Record high above the channel midline on pared Fed hike bets
The Nasdaq 100 is up about 1.4% near 30,921.50, a little below its record 31,017.5 intraday high, as the payrolls miss trimmed hike pricing. The daily chart shows a gap higher inside the rising channel from late July, with the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages at 29,462-29,917 well below and the RSI near 67, firm but not yet overbought. Nvidia hit a record intraday high, Tesla is up over 5% after delivering 486,532 vehicles in Q3 against a consensus near 461,974 and Arm is up almost 8%, while memory and storage stocks lag. Holding today’s 30,804 low keeps the breakout intact; a slip back below Thursday’s ~30,500 close would suggest a failed move.
| Last30,921.50 |
| Support30,804 / 30,500 |
| Resistance31,018 / 31,400 |
| S&P 5007,740.0 (+0.96%) |
US 20-Year Yield
Rates · Long end eases from 5.7% but stays at the top of its channel
The 20-year Treasury yield is down 1 bp near 5.638% after trading between 5.586% and 5.674%, having briefly topped 5.7% this week. The daily chart shows yields breaking above a steep rising channel from late June, with the RSI near 71 still overbought and the 20-day average at 5.445% far below. Bonds rallied on the payrolls miss but gave back much of the move as the 10-year returned to 5.252%. A close below 5.586% would be the first sign of a turn toward 5.445%; a push back above 5.674% would reopen the 5.75% area as oil, deficits and a likely December hike keep term premium high.
| Last5.638% |
| Support5.586% / 5.445% |
| Resistance5.674% / 5.750% |
| US 10Y5.252% |
BTC/USD
Crypto · Short squeeze carries Bitcoin back toward its September ceilingBitcoin is up about 1.8% near $85,521 after spiking toward $87,000 on the data, its strongest since January, and then giving back part of the move, as lower yields and a wave of short liquidations (about $270M of a roughly $363M total) fuelled the move. Open interest rose about $2.3B and options flows lean heavily toward calls. Citi raised its 12-month BTC forecast to about $113,400 and Strategy now holds 847,666 BTC. The $87,000-87,500 zone has capped rallies for two weeks and Binance heatmaps flag $87,400 as a key liquidation level. QCP notes $82,500 has held three times in the past week and $87,400 (the September high) is the gateway to $90,000, where options traders have sold upside. Spot BTC ETFs returned to inflows of about $102M on Thursday. Holding $85,000 keeps the squeeze alive; losing $82,500 would undo it.
| Last$85,521 |
| Support$85,000 / $82,500 |
| Resistance$87,400 / $90,000 |
| Liq. level~$87,400 |
XRP/USD
Crypto · Coiling inside a triangle below the $1.55 cap
XRP trades near $1.511, up about 1.1% after rejecting $1.554, lagging Bitcoin as dominance climbs toward 60%. The daily chart shows a symmetrical triangle since the late-August spike, with falling highs near $1.57 and rising lows close to the 20-day average at $1.4547; the RSI near 58 is neutral. A daily close above $1.555 and the triangle top would target $1.665 and then $1.70, while a drop below today’s $1.486 low would put $1.4547 and the 50-day average at $1.377 in play. Evernorth’s XRPN, holding about 473 million XRP, is set to start trading on Nasdaq on 8 October.
| Last$1.511 |
| Support$1.486 / $1.455 |
| Resistance$1.555 / $1.665 |
| CatalystXRPN debut, 8 Oct |
What to Expect from the Next Session
- The rest of the US session and the weekly close. Watch whether the Nasdaq 100 (30,921.50) holds above 30,804 into the close and whether the 10-year can break back below 5.20% after its rebound to 5.252%. A fade in tech or a yield rebound would test today’s risk-on move heading into Asia’s Monday open.
- Fed repricing. October hike odds are now below 20%, but a December hike remains priced near 90%. Fed speakers and next week’s FOMC minutes decide whether yields, gold and the dollar extend today’s moves; US CPI follows on 14 October.
- Oil and the Gulf. WTI is testing $88.28; a break targets $86.36 and would keep pressure on the loonie (USD/CAD above 1.4200). Any escalation headline on Iran or a confirmed European reserve release could swing crude by several dollars.
- Crypto follow-through. BTC needs a clean break of $87,400 to extend the squeeze; XRP needs a close above $1.555 to break out of its triangle. Weekend liquidity is thin, so moves can overshoot in either direction.
What Is Moving the Market
Fed hike bets unwind
After September’s hike to 3.75-4.00%, markets had priced roughly a 70% chance of another move in October a week ago. Soft PCE inflation and today’s 29K payrolls have cut that below one-in-five, though December is still almost fully priced.
Bond market stress has not gone away
The 10-year hit its highest since 2002 this week; it dipped on the data but is back at 5.252%, and only the long end is holding gains. Citi flagged that rate volatility without a matching Fed repricing is a worry. Yields remain the main constraint on gold and the main support for the dollar.
Oil and geopolitics
WTI’s slide to a one-month low eases inflation fears but hurts commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar. US-Iran tensions, possible new US deployments and a reported post-midterm bombing plan keep two-way risk high.
Risk appetite returns
Tech stocks, Tesla’s delivery beat and a crypto short squeeze have lifted risk assets. The Swiss franc’s safe-haven bid shows investors are still hedging fiscal and bond-market risk.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time | Country | Event | Result / Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today 12:30 GMT | US | Non-farm payrolls (Sep) | +29K vs ~84-90K cons.; Aug revised to +133K |
| Today 12:30 GMT | US | Unemployment rate (Sep) | 4.2% vs 4.1% expected; participation 61.8% |
| Today 12:30 GMT | US | Avg hourly earnings (Sep) | +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected |
| Today 14:00 GMT | US | Factory orders (Aug) | +0.1% as expected; July revised to +0.8% |
| Today 13:03 GMT | US | Tesla Q3 deliveries | 486,532 vs ~461,974 consensus; shares +5% |
| Today 13:30 GMT | US | Cash equity open | Nasdaq 100 record; S&P 500 +1.0%; Dow +0.5% |
| Next week | US | FOMC minutes (Sep meeting) | Guidance on the pace of further hikes |
| 8 Oct | US | Evernorth XRPN Nasdaq debut | XRP treasury vehicle listing |
| 14 Oct | US | CPI (Sep) | Key input for the October Fed meeting |
| 28 Oct | US / CA | Fed and BoC decisions | Oct hike odds <20%; Dec ~90% |
Summary
The US session has turned risk-on after a 29K payrolls miss: the Nasdaq 100 is near 30,921.50 after a record intraday high, the long end of the Treasury curve has eased while the 10-year is back at 5.252%, and the dollar index is down about 0.3%. USD/CHF trades near 0.8289 as the franc firms, while USD/CAD holds near 1.4243 because falling oil hurts the loonie. Spot gold is lower near $4,148.00, WTI is down 2.7% at $90.40, the US 20-year yield is near 5.638%, BTC near $85,521 and XRP near $1.511. The weekly close, Fed repricing and Iran headlines set the next move.
FAQ
Q:Why did US stocks rally on a weak jobs report?
A:The miss, plus soft wage growth, cut the chance of a Fed hike in October and briefly pulled Treasury yields lower, which helped growth and tech stocks most.
Q:Why is USD/CAD flat when the dollar is weaker?
A:WTI’s drop of more than 3% hurts the oil-linked Canadian dollar, and the Canada-US rate gap still favours the US dollar, offsetting broad dollar softness.
Q:What are the key levels today?
A:USD/CAD 1.4200/1.4246, USD/CHF 0.8225/0.8327, spot gold $4,134/$4,228, WTI $88.28/$91.90, Nasdaq 100 30,804/31,018, US 20Y 5.586%/5.674%, BTC $85,000/$87,400, XRP $1.486/$1.555. These are conditional references, not forecasts.
