US Session Report: Yields at multi-decade highs lift the Dollar and Swiss Franc lower, while oil jumps on stalled Hormuz talks and Nasdaq and crypto slide | 24 September 2026
US Session Report: Yields at multi-decade highs lift the Dollar and Swiss Franc lower, while oil jumps on stalled Hormuz talks and Nasdaq and crypto slide
USD/CAD · USD/CHF · Gold · Crude Oil · Nasdaq 100 · US 10Y · BTC/USD · XRP/USD — technical analysis with conditional reference levels
Nine Stories Driving the US Session
Ranked by expected market impact into the US close
Treasury yields hold near 19-year highs as the 30-year hits 5.43%
A weak 5-year auction and hot PMIs drove Wednesday’s surge. NY Fed’s Williams said another hike by year-end is reasonable.
Fed Hike BetsFranc sinks to a four-month low after the SNB holds at 0%
The SNB lifted inflation forecasts through 2028 but stayed on hold, widening the policy gap with the Fed.
SNB HoldLoonie slips as Fed hike bets outweigh firmer oil
The pair presses the upper Bollinger band near 1.4115 with RSI near 69 as October hike odds climb toward 70%.
Dollar StrengthGold sits near a one-week low under 4,313 resistance
Yields above 5.1% and a firmer Dollar weigh on the non-yielding metal, while Hormuz headlines cut both ways.
Yield PressureOil jumps on stalled UN talks; Reuters flags a phased Hormuz path
Brent trades near $105. Negotiators are weighing a step-by-step reopening in exchange for lifting the US blockade.
Hormuz TalksNasdaq 100 lags as tech absorbs multi-decade-high yields
Futures fell after Wednesday’s 0.8% drop. Bloomberg reports the S&P 500 trimmed its decline on the Hormuz report. Costco reports after the bell.
Tech Under PressureJobless claims beat at 197,000, near 57-year lows
Reuters polled economists for 201,000. Continuing claims rose 2,000 to 1.719 million, keeping the unemployment rate near 4.1%.
Firm Labour MarketBitcoin stays under $84,000 as longs are flushed
About $518 million was liquidated in 24 hours, mostly longs, as October hike odds jumped to roughly 70%.
Long LiquidationsXRP retreats from $1.65 and tests the $1.49 swing low
The token remains up about 15% on the week, but longs took most of the $31.5 million in liquidations.
Profit-Taking| Market | Level | Change | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar Index (DXY) | ~101.0 | Two-month high | Dollar firm on hot PMIs and hawkish Fed remarks |
| US 10-Year Yield | 5.11% | Near 2007 high | Highest since July 2007; 30Y at 5.43%, a 2004 high |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75%-4.00% | Oct hike odds ~64-70% | CME FedWatch; Fed hiked 25bp on 16 September |
| SNB Policy Rate | 0% | Held | Inflation forecast raised through 2028 |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | ~$4,274 | -1.0% | Near a one-week low under 4,313 |
| WTI Crude | ~$94.60 | +2.6% | Brent near $105 as Hormuz talks drag on |
| S&P 500 | ~7,700 | ~-0.1% | Wednesday close 7,706; trimmed losses on the Hormuz report |
| Nasdaq 100 Futures | ~30,455 | -1.0% | Prev settlement 30,765 |
| US Jobless Claims | 197K | Beat (cons. 201K) | Continuing claims 1.719M |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | ~$83,800 | -2.4% | Third day below $84K |
| XRP/USD | ~$1.523 | -3.0% | Rejected at $1.65 on Wednesday |
Levels are indicative and rounded; futures, crypto and index figures carry a ~ where taken from other trackers.
Technical Levels for Eight Instruments
Each analysis is conditional and lists a bias, resistance and support levels. Levels are technical references, not forecasts.
USD/CAD
Session Performance
USD/CAD trades near 1.4099, up about 0.25% with a day range of 1.4057-1.4110. Hot US PMIs lifted October hike odds to nearly 70% and the 10-year yield sits near 5.11%.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Price holds above the 100-day SMA (1.3960) and presses the upper Bollinger band at 1.4115, while RSI near 69 signals stretched momentum. A hold above 1.4060 keeps 1.4180 and the 24 June high of 1.4248 in play.
Alternative Scenario
Falling yields on a Hormuz deal or firmer Canadian data could send the pair back to 1.4015-1.3960.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R11.4115 | S11.4057 |
| R21.4180 | S21.3960 |
| R31.4248 | S31.3915 |
USD/CHF
Session Performance
USD/CHF is near 0.8271, its highest since late May, after the SNB held at 0% and raised its inflation forecasts through 2028. The range so far is 0.8229-0.8272.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
The pair holds above its 9- and 50-period EMAs (first support 0.8213) with RSI near 63, and is testing the 52-week high at 0.8272. A close above it opens 0.8290 and 0.8320.
Alternative Scenario
A yield pullback on a US-Iran deal or a risk-off bid for the Franc could return the pair to 0.8213-0.8200.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R10.8290 | S10.8240 |
| R20.8320 | S20.8213 |
| R30.8350 | S30.8200 |
Gold (XAU/USD)
Session Performance
Gold trades near $4,274, down about 1.0%, close to a one-week low as the 10-year yield holds near 5.1% and Fed hike bets build.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
XAU/USD is capped below its 50- and 100-day SMAs near 4,307-4,313, with RSI in the mid-40s. Sellers defend 4,297-4,301, and a break under 4,274 opens 4,240.
Alternative Scenario
A phased Hormuz deal that cuts oil and yields, or a softer Dollar after the Trump-Xi talks, could lift gold toward 4,345-4,390 (21-day SMA).
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R14,300 | S14,274 |
| R24,313 | S24,240 |
| R34,345 | S34,200 |
Crude Oil (WTI)
Session Performance
WTI trades near $94.60, up about 2.6%, with Brent around $105. Talks at the UN made little progress and US diesel prices are at records.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Reuters reports negotiators are exploring a phased deal: Iran reopens Hormuz, the US lifts its blockade. Former negotiator Dennis Ross sees only a 30% chance of a deal before the midterms. Holding above 92.15 keeps 96.00 and 97.50 in reach.
Alternative Scenario
Concrete progress on shipping would pull WTI toward 91.00-90.00; new attacks or a stalled deal would test 100.00.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R196.00 | S193.00 |
| R297.50 | S292.15 |
| R3100.00 | S391.00 |
Nasdaq 100
Session Performance
The Nasdaq 100 (NQ futures) trades near 30,455, about 1.0% under Wednesday, after the index slid 0.8% from a record. Alphabet, Oracle and chipmakers fell Wednesday. Bloomberg says the S&P 500 trimmed losses on the Hormuz report, so levels are fluid.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Failure under the 30,765 settlement keeps the bias lower while yields stay above 5%. A break of 30,300 exposes 30,100 and 29,900.
Alternative Scenario
A Hormuz deal or upbeat headlines from tonight’s Trump-Xi CEO dinner could lift the index back to 30,765-30,900 and negate the bias.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R130,600 | S130,300 |
| R230,765 | S230,100 |
| R330,900 | S329,900 |
US 10Y Yield
Session Performance
The 10-year yield is near 5.11%, close to its highest since July 2007, after a 16 bp surge Wednesday on hot PMIs and a weak $70 billion 5-year auction. The 30-year touched 5.43%, a 2004 high.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Yields hold above the 5.00% pivot while CME FedWatch prices roughly 64-70% odds of an October hike. Claims of 197K, near 57-year lows, support that view. A push through 5.14% opens 5.20% and 5.25%.
Alternative Scenario
A phased Hormuz deal that lowers oil, or a well-received 7-year note auction, could pull yields toward 5.05-4.96%.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R15.14 | S15.05 |
| R25.20 | S25.00 |
| R35.25 | S34.96 |
BTC/USD
Session Performance
Bitcoin trades near $83,800, down about 2.4%, with about $518 million liquidated in 24 hours, $456 million of it longs.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
BTC keeps failing under $85,000 (Monday high $85,111) as Fed hike odds rise. A hold under 84,500 targets 82,500 and 80,000, with the 50-day EMA near 76,100 as deeper support.
Alternative Scenario
Falling yields or a Hormuz deal could lift BTC above 85,111 toward 86,500 and weaken the bearish structure.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R184,500 | S182,500 |
| R285,111 | S280,000 |
| R386,500 | S378,000 |
XRP/USD
Session Performance
XRP trades near $1.523, down about 3.0% after Wednesday’s rejection at $1.65. Long positions were $29.5 million of $31.5 million liquidated.
Technical Structure & Confirmation
Price is testing the $1.4942 swing low with RSI near oversold. A loss of 1.49 opens 1.40 and the 1.30 region, while the recent daily golden cross is the bullish counterweight.
Alternative Scenario
Reclaiming 1.55 and then 1.6182 as yields ease would negate the bearish view.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R11.55 | S11.49 |
| R21.62 | S21.40 |
| R31.65 | S31.30 |
What Is Moving Wall Street
Macro, policy and event risk behind the session
Fed Hike Bets Keep Yields at Multi-Decade Highs
DriverWilliams said another hike by year-end is reasonable, and S&P Global composite PMI hit 58.4.
ContextFed funds is 3.75%-4.00%; FedWatch shows roughly 64-70% odds of an October hike.
WatchThe 7-year note auction after Wednesday’s weak 5-year sale, and further Fedspeak.
Hormuz: Reuters Reports a Phased Path
DriverUS and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring Iran reopening the strait in return for the US lifting its blockade.
ContextNeither side wants to give up leverage first; Dennis Ross puts a pre-midterm deal at 30%.
WatchAny announcement on shipping or the blockade. Brent $100 and WTI $92-96 are the pivots.
Trump-Xi Summit: Truce Extended to January 10
DriverBessent said the Busan truce is extended from November 10 to January 10 as the leaders meet at the White House.
ContextAnalysts expect no breakthrough on chips or rare earths; tariff cuts are the likeliest deliverable.
WatchTonight’s tech-CEO dinner and any tariff, chip or AI headlines.
SNB Holds at 0%, Franc Weakens
DriverThe SNB held its rate and raised inflation forecasts through 2028 while restoring standard FX-intervention wording.
ContextUSD/CHF rose to about 0.827, its highest since late May, as the rate gap with the Fed dominates.
WatchWhether 0.8272 breaks, and any Swiss intervention comments.
US Labour Market Firms
DriverInitial claims fell 1,000 to 197,000, below the 201,000 forecast and near 57-year lows.
ContextEconomists say the labour market has regained its footing, which supports further Fed tightening.
WatchCostco results after the bell, new home sales and 30 September’s PCE and GDP.
Crypto: Liquidations Meet Rising Hike Odds
DriverBitcoin is below $84,000 with about $518 million liquidated, mostly longs; XRP was rejected at $1.65.
ContextFedWatch shows about a 71% chance of an October 28 hike, a headwind for risk assets.
WatchWhether the 10-year holds above 5% and BTC defends 82,500.
Conditional Outlook
Technical, fundamental and event factors combined into conditional scenarios. No unconditional forecasts are made.
USD/CAD & USD/CHF Outlook
If yields stay above 5% and Fed hike odds keep rising, USD/CAD should press 1.4115-1.4180 and USD/CHF 0.8290-0.8320.
If a Hormuz deal drags yields lower, USD/CAD should slip to 1.4015-1.3960 and USD/CHF to 0.8213-0.8200.
Gold & Crude Oil Outlook
If the 10-year holds above 5.1%, gold should slide toward 4,274-4,240; a stalled Iran deal keeps WTI at 96.00-97.50.
If a phased Hormuz deal advances, WTI should fall to 91.00-90.00 and gold could recover 4,345.
Nasdaq 100 & US 10Y Outlook
If the 30-year stays above 5.4%, the Nasdaq 100 should test 30,300-30,100 and the 10-year 5.14-5.20%.
If oil falls and the 7-year auction is well received, the Nasdaq 100 could retake 30,765 and the 10-year slip to 5.05%.
BTC & XRP Outlook
If hike odds keep rising, BTC should press 82,500-80,000 and XRP 1.49-1.40.
If yields ease, BTC should reclaim 85,111 and XRP 1.55-1.62.
Summary
Thursday’s US session is a yield-and-oil story, with Hormuz headlines and the Trump-Xi summit as swing factors. The 10-year near 5.11% and October hike odds near 70% keep the Dollar bid: USD/CHF (0.8271) is at a four-month high and USD/CAD (1.4099) presses 1.4115. Gold at about $4,274 stays capped under 4,313, WTI near $94.60 is rebounding but exposed to a phased Hormuz deal, and the Nasdaq 100 near 30,455 needs 30,765 to ease pressure. Bitcoin (~$83,800) and XRP (~$1.523) remain vulnerable to further yield gains. Key catalysts ahead: the 7-year note auction, Costco earnings, Trump-Xi headlines and Hormuz talks.
US Session FAQ
Answers based on the current session
Why is USD/CHF at a four-month high?
The SNB held at 0% and raised inflation forecasts, but the Fed-SNB rate gap and Fed hike bets kept the Franc weak.
Why is gold falling?
US 10-year yields near 5.1% and rising Fed hike odds reduce demand for non-yielding gold.
Why is crude oil rising?
UN talks made little progress and Brent is near $105, though a Reuters report of a phased Hormuz deal has trimmed the rally.
Why is the Nasdaq 100 lower?
Bond yields at multi-decade highs and inflation fears weigh on tech valuations, extending Wednesday’s decline.
Why are Bitcoin and XRP falling?
Fed hike odds near 70%, a stronger Dollar and about $518 million of mostly long liquidations pushed crypto lower.
What are the key events in the rest of the session?
The 7-year note auction, Costco earnings after the bell, Trump-Xi headlines and the tech-CEO dinner, and Hormuz talks.
