Weekly Index Market Analysis — March 16–20, 2026 | Nasdaq 100 · S&P 500 · FTSE 100 | Capital Street FX
Geopolitical Fire, Stagflation Fear,
and the FOMC Pivot Point
A Market Under Siege: Three Weeks of Losses and a Week That Could Change Everything
The week of March 9–13 was one of the most consequential in 2026. Iran’s Supreme Leader declared the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as a weapon of economic pressure, Brent crossed $100 for the first time since 2022, and every major US index printed a new year-to-date low.
The S&P 500 has shed 1.6% this past week alone and is now nursing a three-week consecutive losing streak — the longest since early 2025. The Nasdaq 100 has pulled back more than 15% from its February peak above 25,500, while the Dow Jones sits near 46,474, its weakest close since November. WTI surged 35% in a single week — its largest weekly move in recorded futures history. The IEA’s emergency release of 400 million barrels barely dented the upward move.
US CPI for February came in at 2.4% YoY, but that predates the oil shock in full. With Brent above $100, economists at multiple banks now estimate CPI could breach 3.5–4.0% by Q2 2026 if the strait remains closed. The Fed walks into its March 17–18 meeting with an inflation problem it can’t cut through and a growth problem it can’t hike through. That is the textbook definition of a policy trap — and markets know it.
The FTSE 100, positioned very differently with its heavy energy sector weighting (BP and Shell both had positive weeks), is navigating this period with considerably more resilience. Down just 0.2% for the week versus S&P’s 1.6%, London’s benchmark is acting as a relative safe haven within equity markets.
High-Impact Events: March 16–20, 2026
Given the extraordinary macro backdrop — oil above $100, FOMC dot-plot update, and three central bank decisions in 5 days — consider reducing position sizes and widening stops across all major index trades until at least Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | 🇦🇺 Australia | RBA Meeting Minutes | — | +25bp hike (Feb) | HIGH |
| 02:00 | 🇨🇳 China | Industrial Production (YoY, Feb) | 5.4% | 5.8% | HIGH |
| 02:00 | 🇨🇳 China | Retail Sales (YoY, Feb) | 3.8% | 4.0% | HIGH |
| 02:00 | 🇨🇳 China | Fixed Asset Investment (YoY, Jan–Feb) | 3.2% | 3.4% | MED |
| 09:30 | 🇬🇧 UK | Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) | — | +1.1% | MED |
| 13:30 | 🇺🇸 USA | Empire State Manufacturing (Mar) | −4.0 | −5.7 | MED |
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:30 | 🇦🇺 Australia | RBA Rate Decision | 4.10% (+25bp) | 3.85% | HIGH |
| 04:30 | 🇦🇺 Australia | RBA Press Conference | — | Hawkish (Feb) | HIGH |
| 09:30 | 🇬🇧 UK | Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 4.5% | 4.4% | HIGH |
| 09:30 | 🇬🇧 UK | Average Earnings (incl. Bonus) | 5.9% | 6.0% | HIGH |
| 13:30 | 🇺🇸 USA | Retail Sales (MoM, Feb) | +0.6% | –0.9% | HIGH |
| 13:30 | 🇺🇸 USA | FOMC Meeting Begins (Day 1 of 2) | No decision | Hold 3.50–3.75% | HIGH |
| 14:15 | 🇺🇸 USA | Industrial Production (Feb) | +0.4% | +0.5% | MED |
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | 🇨🇳 China | PBoC Loan Prime Rate Decision | Hold 3.10% | 3.10% | HIGH |
| 09:30 | 🇬🇧 UK | CPI (YoY, Feb) | 3.1% | 3.0% | HIGH |
| 09:30 | 🇬🇧 UK | Core CPI (YoY, Feb) | 3.8% | 3.7% | HIGH |
| 13:30 | 🇺🇸 USA | Housing Starts (Feb) | 1.38M | 1.37M | MED |
| 18:00 | 🇺🇸 USA | ⭐ FOMC Rate Decision + SEP + Dot Plot | Hold 3.50–3.75% | Hold 3.50–3.75% | CRITICAL |
| 18:30 | 🇺🇸 USA | ⭐ Powell Press Conference | — | Neutral/cautious | CRITICAL |
| 03:00 | 🇯🇵 Japan | BOJ Summary of Opinions | — | — | HIGH |
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | 🇦🇺 Australia | Employment Change (Feb) | +18,000 | +17,800 | HIGH |
| 09:30 | 🇬🇧 UK | Retail Sales (MoM, Feb) | +0.3% | –0.7% | HIGH |
| 12:00 | 🇬🇧 UK | ⭐ Bank of England Rate Decision | Hold 4.50% | Hold 4.50% | CRITICAL |
| 12:00 | 🇬🇧 UK | ⭐ BoE MPC Vote Split | 7-2 or 6-3 hold | Narrow Feb vote | HIGH |
| 13:30 | 🇺🇸 USA | Initial Jobless Claims | 220K | 223K | MED |
| 13:30 | 🇺🇸 USA | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Mar) | +2.5 | +5.2 | MED |
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | 🇯🇵 Japan | National CPI (YoY, Feb) | 3.5% | 3.8% | HIGH |
| 00:30 | 🇯🇵 Japan | Core CPI ex Food & Energy | 2.2% | 2.1% | HIGH |
| 13:15 | 🇪🇺 Eurozone | ⭐ ECB Press Conference / Policy Statement | Hold 2.0% | Hold 2.0% | HIGH |
| 13:30 | 🇺🇸 USA | Existing Home Sales (Feb) | 4.10M | 4.08M | MED |
| 14:00 | 🇺🇸 USA | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Mar) | 55.3 | 55.5 (prelim) | MED |
The rate decision itself is nearly certain to be a hold (92%+). What markets will trade on is the dot plot. If the median projection shifts from one 25bp cut to zero cuts in 2026, expect a sharp selloff in both equities and bonds. Conversely, if the dot plot shifts to two cuts amid war-related growth concerns, risk assets would likely bounce aggressively. Powell’s language around “geopolitical risks to the inflation outlook” will be parsed word by word. Avoid holding large unhedged positions into 18:00 GMT Wednesday.
Index I — Nasdaq 100 (NDX / US100)
| Strong Resistance | 22,700–22,928 |
| 50-Day MA Region | ~24,900 |
| Immediate Resistance | 22,000–22,200 |
| 200-Day MA (broken) | ~24,106 |
| Immediate Support | 21,400–21,500 |
| Psychological Support | 21,000 |
| Major Support (Bear) | 20,000–20,500 |
The Nasdaq 100 has entered a confirmed intermediate-term downtrend. After peaking above 25,500 in late February, the index has surrendered more than 15% across three weeks. The break below the 200-day SMA (which held in every prior pullback since May 2025) is the most significant technical event of 2026 so far. Historically, once the Nasdaq loses its 200-day on a confirmed weekly close, the average subsequent drawdown before a sustainable low is established is between 6–12% from the break point.
The 50-day MA (~24,900) and 100-day MA (~24,732) are now well above current price and serve as formidable overhead resistance. Any bounce into this zone should be treated as a potential shorting opportunity under current macro conditions unless the FOMC delivers a dovish surprise or the Hormuz situation resolves suddenly.
| Fib 0 (Cycle Low) | $4,883 |
| Fib 0.236 | $6,504 |
| Fib 0.382 | $6,194 |
| Fib 0.5 | $5,944 |
| Fib 0.618 | $5,693 |
| Fib 0.786 | $5,337 |
| Major Resistance | 6,750–6,856 |
| Immediate Resistance | 6,680–6,720 |
| 200-Day SMA ★ | ~6,582 |
| Analyst Support Floor | 6,520 |
| Primary Bear Target | 6,400–6,450 |
The S&P 500 is in its most technically challenged position since April 2025. A daily close below the 200-day SMA (~6,582) on strong volume would be a major bearish signal — historically preceding average drawdowns of 8–12% over 4–8 weeks. However, on a monthly timeframe, the structural bull market intact since October 2022 is still alive — the current decline has only retraced ~7% from the ATH above 7,100.
The FTSE 100 is outperforming global indices significantly. Its heavy energy weighting (BP +19.6% over 6 months; Shell similarly strong) provides partial insulation from the Iran oil shock that’s crushing US tech. Oil above $100/bbl is a tailwind for London’s biggest constituents. The FTSE behaves as a partial inflation hedge within global equity portfolios.
| ATH (Feb 27, 2026) | 10,934.90 |
| Fib 0.236 | 10,517 |
| Fib 0.382 | 10,247 |
| Fib 0.5 (near price) | 10,029 |
| Nearest Resistance | 10,500–10,600 |
| Primary Support | 10,145–10,177 |
| 50-Day MA | 10,177 |
| 200-Day MA | 9,987 |
| Correction (−10%) | 9,841 |
The FTSE 100’s technical picture is genuinely bifurcated. In the short term, the index is in a corrective phase after peaking at 10,934.90 on February 27. However, the medium and long-term structure remains constructive — all key moving averages remain below current price. The Bank of England decision on Thursday is the key local catalyst: a 5-4 split vote tilting hawkish would weigh heavily on rate-sensitive sectors; a clean 8-1 dovish hold would be more constructive.
Weekly Comparison: Three Indices Side-By-Side
| Metric | Nasdaq 100 | S&P 500 | FTSE 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last Price | ~21,680 | 6,643 | 10,254 |
| Weekly Change | ▼ −0.7% | ▼ −1.6% | ▼ −0.2% |
| From 2026 High | −15.0% | −7.0% (approx) | −7.1% |
| Oil Shock Impact | Very Negative (tech) | Negative (broad) | Positive (energy weight) |
| Trend (Daily) | Confirmed Bear | Strong Sell | Strong Buy |
| 200-Day MA | ~24,106 (broken) | ~6,582 (imminent test) | 9,987 (well below price) |
| 50-Day MA | ~24,900 (broken) | ~6,856 (broken) | 10,177 (below price) |
| RSI (14-Day) | ~38 | ~32 | ~42 |
| Primary Bias | Bearish | Strongly Bearish | Cautiously Bullish |
| Primary Setup | Sell 22,000–22,200 | Sell 6,680–6,750 | Buy 10,145–10,200 |
| Stop Loss | 22,600 | 6,870 | 9,980 |
| Target 1 / 2 | 21,100 / 20,500 | 6,520 / 6,400 | 10,500 / 10,700 |
| FOMC Risk Impact | High (tech valuation) | Very High (benchmark) | Moderate (BoE primary) |
| Key Event This Week | FOMC Mar 18 | FOMC + 200-Day test | BoE Mar 19 |
Questions Active Traders Are Asking This Week
The Week That Could Define 2026 Markets
We are at an inflection point. Three weeks of equity distribution, a historic oil shock, and a Federal Reserve walking into its most consequential meeting of the year have created a market environment where neither blind bulls nor knee-jerk bears are likely to prosper. What will succeed is disciplined, scenario-aware trading with clearly defined entry conditions, stop levels, and targets.
For the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, the primary bias is bearish into the FOMC, with the instruction to “sell rallies” rather than chase breakdowns. Both indices have completed technically bearish patterns (Three Black Crows, Bearish Engulfing) and remain below key moving average resistance. The S&P’s imminent test of the 200-day SMA is the single most important technical event of the week — its outcome will likely set the tone for the remainder of Q1.
For the FTSE 100, the picture is different and more nuanced. Long-term signals remain bullish, the oil shock is a structural tailwind for its biggest constituents, and the 50-day moving average support zone near 10,145–10,177 represents a technically sound buying opportunity. The Bank of England on Thursday is the key local risk event.
Above all else this week: manage your risk first. The VIX at 27.28 is telling you something. Central bank decisions on Wednesday (FOMC) and Thursday (BoE) represent binary events that can move indices 2–3% in either direction within minutes. Reduce leverage before these events, wait for confirmation signals, and let the market’s post-announcement structure show you the direction.
