Asian Session Report: Yen Slides Past 158 and Aussie Hits Two-Month Low as Dollar Holds Firm
Asian Session Report: Yen Slides Past 158 and Aussie Hits Two-Month Low as Dollar Holds Firm, With Hong Kong Shut and Treasury Yields Near 2007 Highs
Asian stocks were mixed on Thursday as a cooler US PCE print failed to spark broad buying. The Nikkei rose on Micron-driven chip gains, while the ASX 200 fell about 1.5%. The dollar index held near 101.4-101.6 after a roughly 2% September gain, pushing USD/JPY to 158.15 and AUD/USD to a two-month low near 0.6950. Hong Kong is closed for National Day and mainland China is shut until 8 October.
The US 10-year yield is near 5.28% after touching its highest since June 2007, Brent is near $98 on stalled US-Iran talks, and CME FedWatch shows a 38% chance of an October Fed hike. Focus: Tokyo CPI, US ISM, Friday’s payrolls and Iran headlines.
Snapshot: Asian session, 1 October 2026 (~00:00-05:00 GMT / 05:30-10:30 IST)Top Stories Moving the Market
Tokyo leads as Micron lifts chip names; Australia sells off
Nikkei climbed on chip shares from a 66,753.72 close; ASX 200 fell about 1.5% to near 8,654 and the Kospi was flat to slightly lower. MSCI Asia ex-Japan eased 0.2%.
Hong Kong shut for National Day; mainland out until 8 Oct
Hang Seng last closed at 24,613.27 (+0.37%) on Wednesday. Thin liquidity is expected across Asia FX and metals through the week.
Yen slides to a two-week low after BOJ summary of opinions
Some BOJ members want faster hikes, others see weak domestic demand; markets price under 20% for an October move. Tankan large manufacturers came in at 24 vs 25 expected.
Aussie near a two-month low despite the RBA hiking to 4.60%
August trade surplus narrowed to A$495M against about A$2B expected. The pair stays under 0.7000 as the dollar index holds near 101.4-101.6.
10Y holds near its highest since June 2007 as bonds end a brutal September
The 10-year touched 5.306% and the 30-year 5.65% (highest since 2002) before easing to about 5.62%. CME FedWatch now shows a 38% chance of an October 28 hike, down from 50%.
Crude elevated as US-Iran peace talks stall
Brent trades near $97-98 after a 14% September surge, WTI near $89.2. The seven-month Middle East war and Hormuz supply risk keep an inflation premium in yields.
Copper steadies as China holiday thins trading
LME three-month copper sits near $14,450/t, set for a third monthly gain. China’s official PMI rose to 50.1 and SHFE stocks hit the lowest since January 2024.
Litecoin consolidates below $70 after an 8-month high; Dogecoin range-bound
LTC is down about 0.5% in 24 hours after a monthly rally of roughly 35-55%. DOGE trades near $0.094 inside a $0.0929-$0.0979 daily range.
Technical Summary
USD/JPY
FX · Weekly high above 158 as US yields outweigh intervention warningsUSD/JPY extended a bounce from the 156.35-156.40 area, helped by 10-year Treasury yields near 5.3%. Japan’s top currency officials keep warning on excessive depreciation, so rallies toward 159.00-160.00 carry sharp reversal risk. Tokyo CPI (23:30 GMT) and Friday’s payrolls are the next catalysts. A drop under 157.00 would put the 156.35 low back in play.
| Last158.15 |
| Week low156.35 |
| Week high158.21 |
| BOJ Oct hike odds<20% |
AUD/USD
FX · Holding just under 0.70 after the 200-day average breakThe Aussie broke below 0.7000 and its 200-day SMA this week, and the RBA’s 25bp hike to 4.60% did not stop the slide. Weak trade data and a firm dollar keep rallies capped near 0.7000. A daily close under 0.6900 would expose 0.6850; reclaiming 0.7000 would ease the pressure.
| Last0.6950 |
| RBA cash rate4.60% |
| Trade bal. (Aug)A$495M |
| DXY~101.4 |
Copper (HG)
Metals · Consolidating below record territory in thin pre-holiday tradeCOMEX copper trades near $6.60 per lb after touching around $6.68 last week; LME three-month sits near $14,450/t after a $14,875 record on 10 September. Tight Chinese stocks and a PMI at 50.1 support dips, but US tariff fade and the Golden Week lull limit upside. Breaks of $6.52 or $6.68 set the next direction.
| Last$6.5978-6.6093 |
| LME 3M~$14,450/t |
| Record$14,875/t |
| China PMI50.1 |
Corn (ZC)
Grains · Five-week low after USDA stocks dataCorn slid to the lowest since early August after broad grain selling and USDA’s 30 September stocks report. Harvest is 18% complete (as of 27 September) and 56% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent. Failure to hold $4.95 would open $4.85; recovering $5.12-$5.23 would repair the damage.
| Last501.6 c/bu |
| Sep 28 Dec settle523.0 |
| Harvest18% |
| Good/Excellent56% |
Hang Seng (HK50)
Indices · Closed for National Day; reopens Friday 2 OctoberHong Kong recovered from a 24,332.64 early low to close at 24,613.27, just under the day’s 24,637.65 high, helped by Chinese PMI and policy pledges. The index is still down about 3.7% over a month and nearly 10% on the year. Friday’s reopen will price in two sessions of global moves, including the strong Nikkei.
| Close (30 Sep)24,613.27 |
| Day low24,332.64 |
| Day high24,637.65 |
| HSTECH4,253.89 |
Dogecoin (DOGE/USD)
Crypto · Sitting inside a narrow ascending channelDOGE has held $0.092 support through repeated tests this month and is up roughly 13% over 30 days. A close above $0.095 opens $0.0967 and then $0.10; losing $0.0918 puts $0.0905 and the $0.088 area at risk. The DogeOS testnet launch is a supportive headline.
| Last$0.0940 |
| 24h low$0.0929 |
| 24h high$0.0979 |
| Mkt cap~$14.7B |
Litecoin (LTC/USD)
Crypto · Pausing under $70 after an eight-month highLTC rallied toward $74.88 as ETF holdings and futures open interest rose, then cooled. Holding $65 keeps the uptrend intact; a push through $70 targets the $74.88 high and the $75 barrier. A break under $62 would suggest the rally has run its course.
| Last$67.34 |
| 7d high$74.88 |
| 7d low$59.11 |
| Mkt cap~$5.2B |
What to Expect from the Next Session
- Tokyo CPI (23:30 GMT). September CPI follows 1.9% y/y in August; a soft print weakens the case for a BOJ hike on 30 October and could lift USD/JPY toward 159.
- US ISM manufacturing and Fed speakers. Data and Fed talk will test the 38% October-hike pricing and the 5.3% 10-year yield; hot data would pressure the Aussie, copper and crypto.
- US payrolls on Friday. The key risk for the dollar, yields and USD/JPY; the Hang Seng reopens the same day after the holiday.
- Iran and Hormuz headlines. Stalled US-Iran talks keep Brent near $98; a breakthrough would drop oil and yields, a breakdown would extend the dollar rally.
What Is Moving the Market
Soft PCE, sticky yields
August core PCE cooled and July was revised lower, cutting October hike odds to 38%, yet 10-year yields stay near 5.3% on oil-driven inflation fears and heavy supply.
Dollar at two-month highs
The dollar index gained about 2% in September, its best month since June, and sits near 101.4-101.6, pressuring AUD/USD and pushing USD/JPY above 158.
Yen intervention tug-of-war
Tokyo and Washington keep warning on excessive yen weakness, while BOJ opinions are split on the pace of hikes after the move to 1.25%.
China holiday, thin liquidity
Mainland markets are closed 1-7 October and Hong Kong is shut today, so copper, the yuan and Asian equities may move on thin volume.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Forecast vs. Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overnight | US | Micron FQ4 results | Beat with strong FY27 guidance; shares closed +0.37% after hours |
| 00:30 | JP | BOJ Summary of Opinions (Sep) | Some members favor faster hikes; mixed views on growth |
| 00:50 | JP | Tankan Large Manufacturers (Q3) | Actual 24 vs 25 forecast (prev 22); non-manufacturers 35 vs 36 |
| 01:30 | AU | Trade Balance (Aug) | Actual A$495M vs about A$2B expected (prev A$1.35B revised) |
| Day | CN / HK | National Day holiday | Hong Kong closed 1 Oct; mainland closed 1-7 Oct |
| Day | KR | Exports (Sep) | +83.5% y/y vs +62% expected, a record |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI (Sep) | Prev 1.9% y/y |
| Thu (US) | US | ISM Manufacturing; Fed speakers | Watch hike odds after the soft PCE |
| Fri | US | Non-farm payrolls (Sep) | Decides October hike pricing |
Summary
Asia opened the new quarter with a firm dollar, elevated yields and oil near $98 Brent. USD/JPY trades near 158.15, AUD/USD near 0.6950, copper near $6.60 per lb, corn near $5.02 per bushel, the Hang Seng last closed at 24,613 (market shut today), Dogecoin near $0.094 and Litecoin near $67.34. Watch Tokyo CPI, US ISM, Friday’s payrolls and US-Iran headlines.
FAQ
Q:Why is USD/JPY above 158 today?
A:The dollar is near a two-month high on elevated Treasury yields, while BOJ opinions were mixed; Japanese officials’ intervention warnings are the main cap near 159-160.
Q:Why is the Australian dollar weak after an RBA hike?
A:The RBA lifted its cash rate 25bp to 4.60%, but a much smaller August trade surplus and a strong dollar kept AUD/USD near a two-month low under 0.7000.
Q:Is the Hang Seng trading today?
A:No. Hong Kong is closed for National Day on 1 October; the index last closed at 24,613.27 and reopens on 2 October.
Q:What are the key levels for copper, corn, Dogecoin and Litecoin?
A:Copper $6.52 and $6.68, corn $4.95 and $5.12, DOGE $0.0931 and $0.0950, LTC $65 and $70. These are conditional references, not forecasts.
